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Employment Income Drops In More Low-Income Than High-Income Households In All States, Michael P. Ettlinger, Jordan Hensley 2020 University of New Hampshire - Main Campus

Employment Income Drops In More Low-Income Than High-Income Households In All States, Michael P. Ettlinger, Jordan Hensley

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

Low-wage workers are being hit much harder in the COVID-19 economic crisis than higher wage workers. This is evident in the much greater job loss in lower wage industries than higher wage industries.


Essays In Retirement Economics, Gunnar Poppe Yanez 2020 The Graduate Center, City University of New York

Essays In Retirement Economics, Gunnar Poppe Yanez

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1

The discrepancy between the high demand for annuities predicted by economic theory and the empirical low holdings of these assets, known as the annuity puzzle, is still not completely understood in economic studies of retirement finance. This paper assesses the effect of individuals' mortality risk learning process on annuitization. I isolate this effect by building a life-cycle model in which individuals have imperfect information of their true survival probability distribution, and therefore have to update their beliefs about it in a Bayesian manner. Using data on subjective mortality by the Health and ...


An Experiment On The Neolithic Agricultural Revolution. Causes And Impact On Inequality, Antonio J. Morales, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara 2020 Universidad de Málaga

An Experiment On The Neolithic Agricultural Revolution. Causes And Impact On Inequality, Antonio J. Morales, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara

ESI Working Papers

Testing causal relationships expressed by mathematical models on facts about human behaviour across history is challenging. A prominent example is the Neolithic agricultural revolution [1]. Many theoretical models of the adoption of agriculture has been put forward [2] but none has been tested. The only exception is [3], that uses a computational approach with agent-based simulations of evolutionary games. Here, we propose two games that resemble the conditions of human societies before and after the agricultural revolution. The agricultural revolution is modelled as an exogenous shock in the lab (n=180, 60 independent groups), and the transition from foraging to ...


Determinants Of County-Level Poverty Rates In 2017: An Upper-Midwest Comparison, Trey V. Perez 2020 College of Saint Benedict and Saint John's University

Determinants Of County-Level Poverty Rates In 2017: An Upper-Midwest Comparison, Trey V. Perez

Undergraduate Economic Review

The American upper-Midwest as a region throughout the 2010s has experienced lower-than-average poverty rates. This paper seeks to uncover the determinants that have the greatest impact on the county-level poverty rates for five states (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas). Outcomes for this study came from an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression to estimate the impact each independent variable had on the poverty rate. The empirical results showed the unemployment rate, the percentage of households headed solely by females, and percent of the population that was Native American in 2017 had a significant impact on a county’s poverty rate.


Development Of A New Us Currency For The Post-Pandemic Remote Culture, F. Matthew Mihelic 2020 University of Tennessee Health Science Center

Development Of A New Us Currency For The Post-Pandemic Remote Culture, F. Matthew Mihelic

Faculty Publications

The contemporary dollar currency was already under significant pressure prior to the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the economic pressures resulting from the national and world “lockdown” have very significantly exacerbated the vulnerabilities of those Federal Reserve Notes. The ostensible nationalization of the Federal Reserve by the United States federal government in April 2020 is a harbinger of a need to restructure the US currency. Today’s developing remote culture necessitates a new form of electronic currency. Herein is a conceptual blueprint for the development of such a restructured US currency that would function in the post-pandemic remote culture.


Shutdown Policies And Worldwide Conflict, Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier, Nathalie Monnet, Rohit Ticku 2020 Aix-Marseille University

Shutdown Policies And Worldwide Conflict, Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier, Nathalie Monnet, Rohit Ticku

ESI Working Papers

We provide real-time evidence on the impact of Covid-19 restrictions policies on conflicts globally. We use daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of coronavirus to study how conflict levels vary following shutdown and lockdown policies. We use the staggered implementation of restriction policies across countries to identify their effect on conflict incidence and intensity. Our results show that imposing a nation-wide shutdown reduces the likelihood of daily conflict by around 9 percentage points. The reduction is driven by a drop in the incidence of battles, protests and violence against civilians. Across actors the ...


Comovement And Instability In Cryptocurrency Markets, Pierangelo De Pace, Jayant Rao 2020 Pomona College

Comovement And Instability In Cryptocurrency Markets, Pierangelo De Pace, Jayant Rao

Pomona Economics

We analyze the extent of comovement between daily price returns of nine major cryptocurrencies during the first three main phases of their development, from April 2013 to November 2018. We assess its evolution using bivariate and multivariate modelling approaches, and detect pronounced time variation. Generally, comovement is initially low and positive, but increases between early 2017 and late 2018. We then adopt a right-tail version of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify periods of mildly explosive behavior (statistical instability) in the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio (a measure of the dollar value of cryptocurrency transaction activity relative ...


Non-Linear Modifications Of Black-Scholes Pricing Model With Diminishing Marginal Transaction Cost, Kaidi Wang 2020 William & Mary

Non-Linear Modifications Of Black-Scholes Pricing Model With Diminishing Marginal Transaction Cost, Kaidi Wang

Undergraduate Honors Theses

In the field of quantitative financial analysis, the Black-Scholes Model has exerted significant influence on the booming of options trading strategies. Publishing in their Nobel Prize Work in 1973, the model was generated by Black and Scholes. Using Ito’s Lemma and portfolio management methodology, they employed partial differential equation to provide a theoretical estimate of the price of European-style options.

This paper is interested in deriving non-linear modifications of the Black-Scholes model with diminishing marginal transaction cost.


An Empirical Study Of Bicycle Sharing Systems Using A Product Diffusion Context, Lincoln Hartnett 2020 William & Mary

An Empirical Study Of Bicycle Sharing Systems Using A Product Diffusion Context, Lincoln Hartnett

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper analyzes the adoption of bicycle sharing systems (BSSs) in a sample of five U.S. cities including Boston, Los Angeles, New York City, Portland OR, and Washington DC. This paper builds on studies of BSS usage that model usage as a function of city-specific variables. It expands on previous studies by placing the analysis of BSS usage in a product-diffusion context, the range of analysis is a time series spanning the first 36 month of each system’s operation. This analysis seeks to develop a microeconomic model of incentives that predicts city-level usage as the collection of individual ...


Modeling Movement: A Machine-Learning Approach To Track Migration Routes After Displacement, Ethan Harrison 2020 William & Mary

Modeling Movement: A Machine-Learning Approach To Track Migration Routes After Displacement, Ethan Harrison

Undergraduate Honors Theses

Over the past decade, the number of individuals internally displaced by conflict (IDPs) has reached unprecedented levels. Humanitarian actors and first-responders face persistent information gaps in meeting the needs of these populations. Specifically, they face challenges in understanding where and how IDPs move after they are displaced, which is necessary to locate them in conflict-affected situations and provide them with life-saving assistance. In this paper, I propose a framework, using established machine-learning methods, to forecast the migration routes of these displaced populations (Chapter 1). In a case study of displacement in Yemen, my models predict 80% of IDPs' migration routes ...


The Impact Of The 1981 Automobile Voluntary Export Restraint On Commuting Zone Level Within The United States, Owen Giordano 2020 William & Mary

The Impact Of The 1981 Automobile Voluntary Export Restraint On Commuting Zone Level Within The United States, Owen Giordano

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper analyzes the impacts of the 1981 voluntary export restraint (VER) on important economic welfare indicators. The indicators include employment shares, average wages, and population growth measured on a commuting zone (CZ) level and were utilized as a means to assess trade-flow exposure. CZ level data allows us to capture the effects of a national policy on local economies. In addition, this paper evaluates the impact of the 1981 VER on Japanese exports to the United States (US). Two regression models use census data as well trade-flow data from 1970s to 1980s. A trade-flow exposure model shows that the ...


Institutions, Opportunism And Prosocial Behavior: Some Experimental Evidence, Antonio Cabrales, Irma Clots-Figueras, Roberto Hernán-González, Praveen Kujal 2020 Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

Institutions, Opportunism And Prosocial Behavior: Some Experimental Evidence, Antonio Cabrales, Irma Clots-Figueras, Roberto Hernán-González, Praveen Kujal

ESI Working Papers

Formal or informal institutions have long been adopted by societies to protect against opportunistic behavior. However, we know very little about how these institutions are chosen and their impact on behavior. We experimentally investigate the demand for different levels of institutions that provide low to high levels of insurance and its subsequent impact on prosocial behavior. We conduct a large-scale online experiment where we add the possibility of purchasing insurance to safeguard against low reciprocity to the standard trust game. We compare two different mechanisms, the private (purchase) and the social (voting) choice of institutions. Whether voted or purchased, we ...


Information Aggregation And The Cognitive Make-Up Of Traders, Brice Corgnet, Mark DeSantis, David Porter 2020 Chapman University

Information Aggregation And The Cognitive Make-Up Of Traders, Brice Corgnet, Mark Desantis, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

We assess the effect of the cognitive make-up of traders on the informational efficiency of markets. We put forth that cognitive skills, such as cognitive reflection, are crucial for ensuring the informational efficiency of markets because they endow traders with the ability to infer others’ information from prices. Using laboratory experiments, we show that information aggregation is significantly enhanced when (i) all traders possess high levels of cognitive sophistication and (ii) this high level of cognitive sophistication is common information for all traders. Our findings shed light on the cognitive and informational constraints underlying the efficient market hypothesis.


Classical Versus Neoclassical Equilibrium Discovery Processes In Market Supply And Demand Theory, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith 2020 Chapman University

Classical Versus Neoclassical Equilibrium Discovery Processes In Market Supply And Demand Theory, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

"The 1870s marginal revolution in economics culminated a century later in a failure. The core utility maximization principle of this school of thought was shown to have no interesting implication for aggregate market behavior in general (Sonnenschein, 1972, 1973a, 1973b; Debreu, 1974; Mantel, 1974; Kirman, 1989; Shafer & Sonnenschein, 1993; Rizvi, 2006). We argue that neoclassical price theory was flawed from the beginning, owing to the more basic and more serious logical problem inherent to the axiom of price taking behavior, under which market price formation is left unexplained."


Time To Play: The Relationship Between Time Spent Playing And Educational Outcomes In Peru, Jasmine Davidson 2020 Macalester College

Time To Play: The Relationship Between Time Spent Playing And Educational Outcomes In Peru, Jasmine Davidson

Economics Honors Projects

Every day, children around the world are playing. There has been plenty of research on the importance of different kinds of play, but very little on the importance of the quantity of play. Understanding the relationship between educational outcomes and the amount of time spent playing would allow parents to better structure their children’s time and would settle the debate between psychologists and economists on whether play has inherent value for a child’s future outcomes. I focus on Peru because conducting this research in a developing country context broadens the current research mostly focused on high-income countries. Using ...


Identity Politics, Clientelism, And Public Goods Provision: Theory And Evidence, Rohit Ticku, Raghul S. Venkatesh 2020 Chapman University

Identity Politics, Clientelism, And Public Goods Provision: Theory And Evidence, Rohit Ticku, Raghul S. Venkatesh

ESI Working Papers

We study how identity politics determines clientelism and provision of public goods in representative democracies. Parties cultivate vote banks—a group of voters who vote along identity lines — in exchange for clientelistic transfers, and provide public goods to nonpartisan voters. There is ex-post identity formation among non-partisans that depends on the party in power. This generates an asymmetry in ex-post conflict payoff for the majority identity. The main theoretical result proposes a new mechanism for clientelism and rent seeking that is driven by identity politics. We further show that asymmetry in identity payoffs i) increases investment in conflict when the ...


A Test Of The Modigliani-Miller Theorem, Dividend Policy And Algorithmic Arbitrage In Experimental Asset Markets, Tibor Neugebauer, Jason Shachat, Wiebke Szymczak 2020 University of Luxembourg

A Test Of The Modigliani-Miller Theorem, Dividend Policy And Algorithmic Arbitrage In Experimental Asset Markets, Tibor Neugebauer, Jason Shachat, Wiebke Szymczak

ESI Working Papers

Modigliani and Miller showed that the market value of the company is in dependent of its capital structure, and suggested that dividend policy makes no difference to this law of one price. We experimentally test the MM theorem in a complete market with two simultaneously traded assets, employing two experimental treatment variations. The first variation involves the dividend stream. According to this variation the dividend payout order is either identical or independent. The second variation involves the market participation, or not, of an algorithmic arbitrageur. We find that Modigliani-Miller's law of one price can be supported on average with ...


Viral Social Media Videos Can Raise Pro-Social Behaviours When An Epidemic Arises, Youting Guo, Jason Shachat, Matthew J. Walker, Lijia Wei 2020 Wuhan University

Viral Social Media Videos Can Raise Pro-Social Behaviours When An Epidemic Arises, Youting Guo, Jason Shachat, Matthew J. Walker, Lijia Wei

ESI Working Papers

At the onset of an epidemic, can viral social media videos induce the high levels of trust and pro-sociality required for a successful community response? Shortly after the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus in Wuhan, China, we conducted an experiment assessing the impact of viral videos on individual preferences and pro-social behaviour. Prior to the experiment, participants viewed one of three videos culled from Chinese social media: a central government leader visiting a local hospital and supermarket, health care volunteers transiting to Wuhan, or an emotionally neutral video unrelated to the emergency. Viewing one of the first two videos leads ...


The Classical Theory Of Supply And Demand, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith 2020 Chapman University

The Classical Theory Of Supply And Demand, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

This paper introduces and formalizes the classical view on supply and demand, which, we argue, has an integrity independent and distinct from the neoclassical theory. Demand and supply, before the marginal rev-olution, are defined not by an unobservable criterion such as a utility func-tion, but by an observable monetary variable, the reservation price: the buyer’s (maximum) willingness to pay (WTP) value (a potential price) and the seller’s (minimum) willingness to accept (WTA) value (a potential price) at the marketplace. Market demand and supply are the cumulative distri-bution of the buyers’ and sellers’ reservation prices, respectively. This WTP-WTA classical ...


Let’S Chat... When Communication Promotes Efficiency In Experimental Asset Markets, Brice Corgnet, Mark DeSantis, David Porter 2020 Chapman University

Let’S Chat... When Communication Promotes Efficiency In Experimental Asset Markets, Brice Corgnet, Mark Desantis, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

The growing prevalence of stock market chat rooms and social media suggests communication between traders may affect market outcomes. Using data from a series of laboratory experiments, we study the causal effect of trader communication on the price efficiency of markets. We show that communication allows markets to convey private information more effectively. This effect is most pronounced when the communication platform publicizes a reputation score that might identify a person as not being truthful. This illustrates the need for market designers to consider social interactions when designing market institutions to leverage the social motives that foster information aggregation.


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