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Real-Time Forecasting, Dean D. Croushore 2011 University of Richmond

Real-Time Forecasting, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

This chapter will discuss real-time forecasting in a macroeconomic policy context. I will begin by talking about the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a survey of private-sector forecasters. Next, I will discuss research on real-time data analysis and its importance in forecasting. Finally, I will discuss real-time forecasting in the 1990s.


The Impact Of Terrorism On Foreign Direct Investment: Which Sectors Are More Vulnerable?, Shivani Agrawal 2011 Claremont McKenna College

The Impact Of Terrorism On Foreign Direct Investment: Which Sectors Are More Vulnerable?, Shivani Agrawal

CMC Senior Theses

The impact of conflict and violence on foreign direct investment (FDI) is not a topic that has been done justice by the literature, and what few studies exist have contradictory results. This paper studies the impact that transnational terrorism has on FDI inflows by economic sector, in developed countries. Results indicate a statistically significant negative correlation between terrorist events and total FDI inflows. Amongst a list of 12 broad industrial sectors, FDI inflows for manufacturing, trade and repair, and construction were found to have a statistically significant negative correlation with terrorist events.


Alleviating Social Disadvantages Of Rapid Economic Growth: A Case For Conditional Cash Transfer (Cct) Application In Old Siam, Anastasia Kostioukova 2011 Claremont McKenna College

Alleviating Social Disadvantages Of Rapid Economic Growth: A Case For Conditional Cash Transfer (Cct) Application In Old Siam, Anastasia Kostioukova

CMC Senior Theses

The ongoing conflict between Thailand’s red shirt and yellow shirt parties is not purely political. This tension is rooted in a renewed awareness of regional economic and social inequality, a byproduct of rapid economic growth in the past. This thesis seeks to understand the overall consequences of unequal economic development in Thailand, as the rationale for asserting that a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program is an appropriate policy tool for the ongoing reconciliation efforts.


Can The Monetary Integration Of Ecowas Improve Intra-Regional Trade?, Chinweuba E. Ezekwesili 2011 Claremont McKenna College

Can The Monetary Integration Of Ecowas Improve Intra-Regional Trade?, Chinweuba E. Ezekwesili

CMC Senior Theses

A gravity model is used to evaluate the effects of currency union on intra-regional trade of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) member states. The panel data used includes bilateral observations for fourteen years spanning 1994 through 2006 for 16 countries. Controlling for determinants and deterrents of trade, I find the presence of a currency union three times as likely to increase intra-regional trade between ECOWAS member countries. In addition, I find that the effect on trade creation has been steadily falling since 1994.


America's First Great Moderation, Ryan Shaffer 2011 Claremont McKenna College

America's First Great Moderation, Ryan Shaffer

CMC Senior Theses

This paper identifies America's first Great Moderation, a period from 1841-1856 of unbroken economic expansion and low volatility comparable to the Great Moderation of the 1980s-2000s. This moderation occurred despite a lack of central banks, low governmental spending, and barriers to interstate commerce during the antebellum period. I demonstrate this moderation in industrial production and stock market indexes and compare the first Great Moderation with the second in these economic factors. These results also call into question the conventional wisdom of the National Bureau of Economic Research business cycle chronology that the antebellum period was volatile and fraught with ...


The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy, Jacob H. Bauch 2011 Claremont McKenna College

The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy, Jacob H. Bauch

CMC Senior Theses

Nine of the ten recessions since WWII have been preceded by relatively large and sudden increases in the price of oil. In this paper, I use time series analysis to forecast GDP growth using oil prices. I use the methodology from Hamilton (2009), and extend the dataset through 2010. Impulse response functions are used to analyze the historical performance of the model’s one-year-ahead forecasts. In April, 2011, the International Monetary Fund changed its forecast of 2011 GDP growth in the U.S. from 3.0% to 2.8% largely due to persistently high oil prices. My model suggests that ...


Credit Market Imperfections, Financial Crisis And The Transmission Of Monetary Policy, Brett Spencer 2011 Claremont McKenna College

Credit Market Imperfections, Financial Crisis And The Transmission Of Monetary Policy, Brett Spencer

CMC Senior Theses

This paper uses U.S. macroeconomic data drawn from 2001 to 2010 in order to test for the operation of a credit channel of monetary transmission. Using a combination of a VAR and ADL time series frameworks, evidence is found for the impairment of the credit channel during the crisis period relative to the period which preceded it. Evidence is also found against the presence of a "credit crunch" during the crisis, and supporting evidence is found for the existence of a "credit trap." This analysis indicates a significant role for credit market imperfections in the transmission of monetary policy ...


Fiscal Impact Of Privatization In Developing Countries, Alexander H. Sunderland 2011 Claremont McKenna College

Fiscal Impact Of Privatization In Developing Countries, Alexander H. Sunderland

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the fiscal impact of privatization revenues in 47 developing countries. There are many reasons that privatization is attractive for the central government of developing countries. If substantial, these revenues from the sale of state owned enterprises can present a potential solution to persistent deficits. On the other hand, the privatization revenues could be used to finance an even larger deficit. In this paper, I will discuss previous research on the fiscal impact of privatization revenues, the factors that contribute to persistent fiscal budget deficits and explain how empirical research on the fiscal impact of privatization in the ...


The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor 2011 Claremont McKenna College

The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor

CMC Senior Theses

Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a ...


The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal 2011 Claremont McKenna College

The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some ...


Occam's Razor Vol. 1 - Full (2011), 2011 Western Washington University

Occam's Razor Vol. 1 - Full (2011)

Occam's Razor

No abstract provided.


Preservation And Use Of Natural Resources In The Developing World: A Case Study Of The Can Gio Biosphere Reserve, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Emily Green 2011 Western Washington University

Preservation And Use Of Natural Resources In The Developing World: A Case Study Of The Can Gio Biosphere Reserve, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Emily Green

Occam's Razor

Developing nations often overlook the environmental effects of industrialization. However, these nations need healthy, sustainable resources in order to become prosperous and stable countries. Additionally, developed nations depend upon the natural resources of developing nations as raw materials. Loss of natural resources in developing nations therefore has effects at both national and global levels. A key challenge across the globe is balancing the human need for development with the necessity of the sustainable use and protection of natural resources. In the process of finding this balance, developing nations are revising both their national definition of conservation as well as the ...


Monetary And Fiscal Policies: Ordinary Recessions And Financial Crises, Svetoslav I. Semov 2011 Gettysburg College

Monetary And Fiscal Policies: Ordinary Recessions And Financial Crises, Svetoslav I. Semov

Gettysburg Economic Review

This paper uses two different samples to study the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the profiles of recessions and recoveries. Several results emerge from the econometric analysis presented. First, monetary policy during ordinary recessions and banking crises is a powerful tool with lasting effects that extend to recovery growth rates. However, the effect of monetary policy during financial crises is strongly diminished in the case of forbearance – banks left to function despite being technically insolvent. Second, the effectiveness of fiscal policy is reversed – it is a powerful tool during banking crises, but it does not seem to significantly ...


Sustaining Growth: A Projection Of China’S Rebalancing Efforts Towards Domestic Consumption, YuGai Zhu 2011 Bard College

Sustaining Growth: A Projection Of China’S Rebalancing Efforts Towards Domestic Consumption, Yugai Zhu

Senior Projects Spring 2011

According to the macroeconomic identity, combined private sector and public sector balance should match current account balance in any economy. This senior project applies the macroeconomic identity to Chinese data, and analyzes systematically China’s economic structure. The analysis finds that China is not as reliant on trade as people normally think despite that the private sector is running a large surplus. Furthermore, it also shows that the private sector can be induced to spend more, and the public sector has much potential to increase deficit spending. Based on these results, I recommend a combination of 10% to 20% exchange ...


Friedrich Von Hayek: The Socialist-Calculation Debate, Knowledge Arguments, And Modern Economic Development, Cara A. Elliott 2011 Gettysburg College

Friedrich Von Hayek: The Socialist-Calculation Debate, Knowledge Arguments, And Modern Economic Development, Cara A. Elliott

Gettysburg Economic Review

At the close of the nineteenth and the commencement of the twentieth century, socialism began to gain momentum as a large-scale movement in Europe and the United States. This popularity was supported by an increased influence of the working class in society, which put pressure for representation upon European parliaments and began to secure concrete improvements in labor protection laws. Moreover, socialist proponents looked hopefully towards the living example of the Soviet Union, which began its socialist experiment in 1917 following the success of the Bolshevik Revolution. Socialism, which found its economic grounding in the legacies of such men as ...


Women’S Decision Making: A Contextual Assessment, Safdar Khan 2010 Bond University

Women’S Decision Making: A Contextual Assessment, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

No abstract provided.


Business Cycle Program, HOWARD J. SHERMAN 2010 University of California, Los Angeles

Business Cycle Program, Howard J. Sherman

HOWARD J SHERMAN

No abstract provided.


Humanitarian Aid, Internal Displacement And Social Impacts In Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed 2010 Department of Economics. Al Neelain University, Khartoum, Sudan

Humanitarian Aid, Internal Displacement And Social Impacts In Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The study presented here reviews activities of NGOs in Sudan by surveying and studying the activities of Save the Children of United Kingdom. Activities of NGOs in Sudan were always a controversial issue that resulted in the expulsion of many in 2009. There were also precedents of such expulsions in previous and following years. The paper discusses humanitarian work in Sudan, positive and negative sides. The case study's activities of the Save the Children efforts in Jebel Aulia Internally Displaced People, specially their efforts in education were investigated. It is concluded that introduce invaluable help in educational field, building ...


Cancun Climate Negotiations, Prof. Elizabeth Burleson 2010 Selected Works

Cancun Climate Negotiations, Prof. Elizabeth Burleson

Prof. Elizabeth Burleson

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, held from November 29 to December 11, 2010, in Cancún, Mexico, relaunched the United Nation's multilateral facilitation role.


Ranking Of Provinces In Iran According To Socio-Economic Indices, Jalil Khodaparast Shirazi, Reza Moosavi Mohseni, A. R. Rahmansetayesh 2010 Auckland University of Technology

Ranking Of Provinces In Iran According To Socio-Economic Indices, Jalil Khodaparast Shirazi, Reza Moosavi Mohseni, A. R. Rahmansetayesh

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

Some parts of a country may have lower income earned through business activities in comparison with other parts of the country. When it is accompanied by lack of social income because of less access to the products and services provided by the government, it will lead to the serious lag of some areas of the country in comparison with other areas. The first step to prevent such a problem is the recognition of the present situation and the second step is programming to reach an appropriate situation. This article applied socioeconomic indices to recognize the current condition in Fars province ...


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