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Executive Overconfidence And Securities Class Actions, Suman BANERJEE, Mark HUMPHERY-JENNER, Vikram NANDA, T. Mandy THAM 2018 Stevens Institute of Technology

Executive Overconfidence And Securities Class Actions, Suman Banerjee, Mark Humphery-Jenner, Vikram Nanda, T. Mandy Tham

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Overconfident CEOs/senior executives tend to have excessively positive views of their own skills and their company’s future performance. We hypothesize that overconfident managers are more likely to engage in reckless or intentional actions/disclosures that give rise to securities class actions (SCAs). Empirical evidence is supportive: Overconfident CEOs/senior executives increase SCA likelihood, though litigation risk is ameliorated through improved governance, such as following the Sarbanes–Oxley Act of 2002. Post-SCA, companies are less likely to hire an overconfident CEO. Following an SCA, overconfident CEOs appear to moderate behavior and to reduce their litigation risk.


Is Public Transit's 'Green' Reputation Deserved?, Justin Beaudoin 2018 University of Washington Tacoma

Is Public Transit's 'Green' Reputation Deserved?, Justin Beaudoin

TREC Friday Seminar Series

While public transit has a reputation as a potential means to ameliorate the adverse environmental effects of automobile travel, there have been very few empirical studies of the marginal effect of transit supply on air quality. We explore whether any of the substantial improvement in air quality observed in the U.S. from 1991 to 2011 can be attributed to increased public transit supply by developing an equilibrium model of transit and automobile travel volumes as a function of the level of transit supplied. We then empirically analyze the effects of the level of transit supply on observed ambient pollution ...


Partisan Conflict And Stock Price, Dashan HUANG, WANG LIYAO 2018 Singapore Management University

Partisan Conflict And Stock Price, Dashan Huang, Wang Liyao

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Partisan conflict has been one dominant theme in U.S. politics in recent years. By using the textual index of Azzimonti (2018), this paper shows that partisan conflict positively predicts market returns, controlling for economic predictors and proxies for uncertainty, disagreement, geopolitical risk, and political sentiment. A one standard-deviation increase in partisan conflict is associated with a 0.58% increase in next month market return. The forecasting power concentrates in periods when the president is from the Republican Party or the majority of House is Republicans. Partisan conflict is positively related to downside risk, and makes investors more conservative when ...


Financial Knowledge And Portfolio Complexity In Singapore, Benedict S. K. KOH, Olivia S. MITCHELL, Susann ROHWEDDER 2018 Singapore Management University

Financial Knowledge And Portfolio Complexity In Singapore, Benedict S. K. Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Susann Rohwedder

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Financial literacy in Singapore has not been analyzed in much detail, despite the fact that this is one of the world’s most rapidly aging nations. Using the Singapore Life Panel®, we explore older Singaporeans’ levels of financial knowledge and compare them to those observed in the United States. We assess portfolio complexity for these older households, to examine how financial literacy is related to outcomes of interest. We show that older Singaporeans’ levels of financial literacy are comparable overall to those in the United States, even though older Singaporeans score slightly lower on some dimensions (knowledge of interest and ...


An Examination Of The Stock Market’S Effect On Economic Inequality, Nicholas J. Golina 2018 The University of Akron

An Examination Of The Stock Market’S Effect On Economic Inequality, Nicholas J. Golina

Undergraduate Economic Review

The literature on economic inequality has shown that stock markets can negatively impact aggregate demand because it indicates a higher concentration of wealth in the hands of the top 10% as opposed to the middle class. The stock market could be one of the factors leading to increased inequality. This study contributes to the literature by analyzing stock markets in OECD countries. Building on Tsountas et al (2015), the results showed that stock markets can have a positive impact on inequality, but with weak economic significance. It is recommended that policymakers should focus on factors that more greatly impact inequality.


Impact Of Airplane Crashes On Firm's Credit Risk Under The Creditgrades Model, Alexandros Bougias 2018 Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB)

Impact Of Airplane Crashes On Firm's Credit Risk Under The Creditgrades Model, Alexandros Bougias

Undergraduate Economic Review

The paper examines the impact of airplane accidents with 40 or more fatalities, on airline's firm credit risk. The sample contains 20 airplane crashes for the period 2000-2017. The analysis proposes the CreditGrades model introduced by Finger et al. (2002) , which is an extension of the first passage time model of Black and Cox (1976). The study concludes that airplane accidents lead to a statistically significant increase in airline's Probability of Default. The results are both significant and robust under the t-Test and the non-parametric Wilcoxon Signed-rank test.


Bankruptcy For Banks: A Tribute (And Little Plea) To Jay Westbrook, David A. Skeel Jr. 2018 University of Pennsylvania Law School

Bankruptcy For Banks: A Tribute (And Little Plea) To Jay Westbrook, David A. Skeel Jr.

Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law

In this brief essay, to be included in a book celebrating the work of Jay Westbrook, I begin by surveying Jay’s wide-ranging contributions to bankruptcy scholarship. Jay’s functional analysis has had a profound effect on scholars’ understanding of key issues in domestic bankruptcy law, and Jay has been the leading scholarly figure on cross-border insolvency. After surveying Jay’s influence, I turn to the topic at hand: a proposed reform that would facilitate the use of bankruptcy to resolve the financial distress of large financial institutions. Jay has been a strong critic of this legislation, arguing that financial ...


Regulating Initial Coin Offerings (Icos), David Hoffman 2018 University of Pennsylvania Law School

Regulating Initial Coin Offerings (Icos), David Hoffman

Wharton Public Policy Initiative Issue Briefs

Research led by the University of Pennsylvania Professor David Hoffman presents legal literature’s first detailed analysis of the inner workings of Initial Coin Offerings (ICO). Startups are using the novel funding mechanism with increasing frequency. In 2017, an estimate 370 ICOs raised around $6.2 billion, and by July 2018, an additional 430 ICOs had raised almost $17.2 billion. ICOs come with the promise of a “smart contract”, or an automated contract that governs real world relationships where before a legal document would have been employed. Human oversight is supposed to be unnecessary because the embedded code ensures ...


A Pilot Study Of Uncertainty In Income Tax Forecasts, Andrew Joung, Benjamin Lockwood, Alex Rees-Jones 2018 University of Pennsylvania

A Pilot Study Of Uncertainty In Income Tax Forecasts, Andrew Joung, Benjamin Lockwood, Alex Rees-Jones

Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC)

How confidently can taxpayers forecast the tax bill that they will face? We asked survey respondents to provide both point estimates and subjective probability distributions of items from the tax return that they will submit the following April. In a pilot study, consisting of a sample of 188 participants from Amazon Mechanical Turk, we find evidence of substantial uncertainty over both the final tax and its determinants. We discuss the implications of this uncertainty for both tax policy and economic modeling.


Could An Alternative Policy Design Have Produced A Stronger Mortgage Modification Outcome For Hamp?, Sean MacDonald 2018 CUNY New York City College of Technology

Could An Alternative Policy Design Have Produced A Stronger Mortgage Modification Outcome For Hamp?, Sean Macdonald

Publications and Research

This paper conducts a study of the relative effectiveness of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) - the primary federal mortgage loan modification program - from early 2009 through 2016. It evaluates U.S. Treasury Department and other data sources, and reviews the recent literature on the relative success of the program. The analysis suggests that HAMP’s success rate in modifying mortgage loans was likely constrained by its voluntary design, a structure that enabled lenders and servicers to prioritize the interests of investors in assessing the risks of modification. It then considers the economic issues surrounding the foreclosure issue and presents ...


Nonlinearities In The Real Exchange Rates: New Evidence From Developed And Developing Countries, Yamin S. Ahmad, Ming Chien Lo, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll 2018 University of Wisconsin - Whitewater

Nonlinearities In The Real Exchange Rates: New Evidence From Developed And Developing Countries, Yamin S. Ahmad, Ming Chien Lo, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

This paper investigates nonlinearities in the dynamics of real exchange rates. We use Monte Carlo simulations to establish the size properties of the Teräsvirta-Anderson (1992) and the Teräsvirta (1994) test, when the dynamics of the real exchange rate is influenced by an exogenous process. In addition, we examine the modification proposed by Ahmad, Lo and Mykhaylova (2013; Journal of International Economics) to show that the modified nonlinearity test performs much better than the original in both Monte Carlo exercises and in the actual data on 1431 bilateral real exchange rate series. Finally, we investigate the dynamics of the real exchange ...


Information Technology System Failure And Value Of Airlines: A Case Study Of Airlines In 2016, Jayendra Gokhale 2018 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Information Technology System Failure And Value Of Airlines: A Case Study Of Airlines In 2016, Jayendra Gokhale

Publications

Technology is a critical component of a firm’s operations. Technology failures can cause widespread problems in airlines. These failures cause disruptions in flight schedules, cause passengers to be stranded at airports and also increase airline operating costs. The objective of this study is to measure an effect of information technology failures on the firm value of passenger airline companies during the year 2016. In that year, there were cases involving delays and cancellations associated with JetBlue, Southwest, Delta, American, and Virgin America that received significant media coverage. Using the event study methodology, this study finds that the intensity of ...


Long-Term Index Fund Ownership And Stock Returns, Ekkehart BOEHMER, Wanshan SONG, Ashish TIWARI, Zhe ZHANG 2018 Singapore Management University

Long-Term Index Fund Ownership And Stock Returns, Ekkehart Boehmer, Wanshan Song, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the implications of stock ownership by index funds for shareholder value. Consistent with recent findings that stock ownership by passive funds contributes to improved governance, we document a strong positive relation between the duration of passive fund holdings and subsequent stock performance. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms with recent poor performance, and for smaller firms and firms with higher allocation weights in passive funds’ portfolios. Our results support the view that index funds, although passive in their investment decisions, successfully contribute to long-term value creation by actively engaging with firms on matters of governance.


Warrants And Their Underlying Stocks: Microstructure Evidence From An Emerging Market, Charlie CHAROENWONG, David K. DING, Nuttawat VISALTANACHOTI 2018 Nanyang Technological University

Warrants And Their Underlying Stocks: Microstructure Evidence From An Emerging Market, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Nuttawat Visaltanachoti

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Stock Exchange of Thailand provides an ideal platform for comparing the trading characteristics of warrants and their underlying stocks since both of them trade in the same market under identical trading rules. If their patterns diverge significantly, it may be possible for an astute trader to devise profitable arbitrage strategies during the life of the warrants. We find that both their patterns are downward-sloping for spreads, U-shaped for flow toxicity, volatility, depth concentration, and trading volume; and upward-sloping for depth and market order flow ratio. This implies that trading under identical market structures leads to similar trading characteristics. We ...


Does Foreign Direct Investment Lead To Industrial Agglomeration?, Wen-Tai HSU, Yi LU, Xuan LUO, Lianming ZHU 2018 Singapore Management University

Does Foreign Direct Investment Lead To Industrial Agglomeration?, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Xuan Luo, Lianming Zhu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on industrial agglomeration. Using the differential effects of FDI deregulation in 2002 in China on different industries, we find that FDI actually affects industrial agglomeration negatively. This result is somewhat counter-intuitive, as the conventional wisdom tends to suggest that FDI attracts domestic firms to cluster for various agglomeration benefits, in particular technology spillovers. To reconcile our empirical findings and the conventional wisdom, we develop a theory of FDI and agglomeration based on two counter-veiling forces. Technology diffusion from FDI attracts domestic firms to cluster, but fiercer competition drives firms away ...


Non-Linear Time Series Modelling With Applications To Equity And Fixed Income Markets, Galyna Grynkiv 2018 The University of Western Ontario

Non-Linear Time Series Modelling With Applications To Equity And Fixed Income Markets, Galyna Grynkiv

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

My thesis focuses on theoretical and empirical aspects of modelling time series during different financial and economic conditions. It consists of three separate chapters in which the properties of Threshold Vector Autoregressive Model (TVAR) models are addressed with subsequent applications to equity and fixed income markets. In the first chapter, which is a joint work with my supervisor Lars Stentoft, we examine the steady state properties of the TVAR model. Assuming the trigger variable is exogenous and the regime process follows a Bernoulli distribution, we derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of a stationary distribution. The derived stationarity ...


Gdp And Refugees: An Economic Argument For Accepting Refugees, Michael Jarman 2018 Brigham Young University

Gdp And Refugees: An Economic Argument For Accepting Refugees, Michael Jarman

Marriott Student Review

This paper examines both the costs and benefits associated with accepting refugees and purports to show that accepting refugees is economically beneficial; increasing GDP in the long run. There is a substantial cost associated with accepting and sustaining refugees, both in providing necessities and in the impact that refugees have on local job markets. However, longitudinal data pulled from Denmark, Germany, and Turkey has shown that local markets do recover from the initial shock. Over time as refugees integrate into their host communities, they provide dividends in the form of increasing demand, greater mobility and wage increases for locals, and ...


The Salience Theory Of Consumer Financial Regulation, Natasha Sarin 2018 University of Pennsylvania Law School

The Salience Theory Of Consumer Financial Regulation, Natasha Sarin

Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law

Prior to the financial crisis, banks’ fee income was their fastest-growing source of revenue. This revenue was often generated through nefarious bank practices (e.g., ordering overdraft transactions for maximal fees). The crisis focused popular attention on the extent to which current regulatory tools failed consumers in these markets, and policymakers responded: A new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was tasked with monitoring consumer finance products, and some of the earliest post-crisis financial reforms sought to lower consumer costs. This Article is the first to empirically evaluate the success of the consumer finance reform agenda by considering three recent price regulations ...


Essays In Leveraged Capital Markets, Kenneth D. Ford 2018 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Essays In Leveraged Capital Markets, Kenneth D. Ford

Theses and Dissertations

The debt capital markets for leveraged borrowers are ripe with information asymmetry, lender specialization, and borrower segmentation. In this dissertation, I explore how these factors manifest themselves and the economic consequences thereof. Essay 1 shows that adverse selection and moral hazard concerns are inherent in underwriting syndicates that differ in size and number of lead underwriters. Using a nested double selection probit model of syndicate choice, I examine the matching of issuers and underwriters and find that matches of issuer quality and underwriter reputation are positive assortative. Further, switching regressions show that yield spreads reflect uncertainty about the intrinsic values ...


An Empirical Study Of The Impact Of The Change In Real Effective Exchange Rate On China's Inflow Of Foreign Direct Investment, Mingyu Niu 2018 Utah State University

An Empirical Study Of The Impact Of The Change In Real Effective Exchange Rate On China's Inflow Of Foreign Direct Investment, Mingyu Niu

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports

With the development of worldwide economic and globalization, China plays an important role in international trade. Since the "reform and openness" and "five years' plan", China’s economy became the second largest in the world. During the period of economic development, Foreign Direct Investment became an important part of improving market socialism in China. In this paper, I use monthly data on foreign direct investment (FDI) in China and the index of real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Chinese RMB for the period from Jan 2008 to Nov 2017. I develop a statistical model to test the causality between ...


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