Quantile Treatment Effects And Bootstrap Inference Under Covariate-Adaptive Randomization, 2018 Singapore Management University

#### Quantile Treatment Effects And Bootstrap Inference Under Covariate-Adaptive Randomization, Xin Zheng, Yichong Zhang

*Research Collection School Of Economics*

This paper studies the estimation and inference of the quantile treatment effect under covariate-adaptive randomization. We propose three estimation methods: (1) the simple quantile regression (QR), (2) the QR with strata fixed effects, and (3) the inverse propensity score weighted QR. For the three estimators, we derive their asymptotic distributions uniformly over a set of quantile indexes and show that the estimator obtained from inverse propensity score weighted QR weakly dominates the other two in terms of efficiency, for a wide range of randomization schemes. For inference, we show that the weighted bootstrap tends to be conservative for methods (1 ...

On Booms That Never Bust: Ambiguity In Experimental Asset Markets With Bubbles, 2018 Chapman University

#### On Booms That Never Bust: Ambiguity In Experimental Asset Markets With Bubbles, Brice Corgnet, Roberto Hernán-González, Praveen Kujal

*ESI Working Papers*

We study the effect of ambiguity on the formation of bubbles and on the occurrence of crashes in experimental asset markets à la Smith, Suchanek, and Williams (1988). We extend their framework to an environment where the fundamental value of the asset is ambiguous. We show that, when the fundamental value is ambiguous, asset prices tend to be lower than when it is risky although bubbles form in both the ambiguous and the risky environments. Additionally, bubbles do not crash in the ambiguous case whereas they do so in the risky one. These findings regarding depressed prices and the absence ...

Determinants Of Parking Fees On College Campuses, 2018 Murray State University

#### Determinants Of Parking Fees On College Campuses, Hannah Huckeby

*Posters-at-the-Capitol*

The price of parking has recently been a hot topic around the Murray area, especially among the college students. Due to the drastic increase in parking pass prices there has been an abundant amount of discussion surrounding this idea of parking being a public good. Many individuals have been outraged which has brought up the questions of why there is a price tag on something that many people consider a public good. With that being said, this paper is going to take a deeper look into parking specifically pertaining to college campuses but also in the cities surrounding these institutions ...

Conditional Independence In A Binary Choice Experiment, 2018 Chapman University

#### Conditional Independence In A Binary Choice Experiment, Nathaniel Wilcox

*ESI Working Papers*

Experimental and behavioral economists, as well as psychologists, commonly assume conditional independence of choices when constructing likelihood functions for structural estimation. I test this assumption using data from a new experiment designed for this purpose. Within the limits of the experiment’s identifying restriction and designed power to detect deviations from conditional independence, conditional independence is not rejected. In naturally occurring data, concerns about violations of conditional independence are certainly proper and well-taken (for well-known reasons). However, when an experimenter employs contemporary state-of-the-art experimental mechanisms and designs, the current evidence suggests that conditional independence is an acceptable assumption for analyzing ...

Selection In The Lab: A Network Approach, 2018 Chapman University

#### Selection In The Lab: A Network Approach, Aleksandr Alekseev, Mikhail Freer

*ESI Working Papers*

We study the selection problem in economic experiments by focusing on its dynamic and network aspects. We develop a dynamic network model of student participation in a subject pool, which assumes that students' participation is driven by the two channels: the direct channel of recruitment and the indirect channel of student interaction. Using rich recruitment data from a large public university, we find that the patterns of participation and biases are consistent with the model. We also find evidence of both short- and long-run selection biases between males and females, as well as between cohorts of students. Males tend to ...

The Econometric Analysis Of The Factors Affecting The Revenue Of Bangkok Port, 2018 World Maritime University

#### The Econometric Analysis Of The Factors Affecting The Revenue Of Bangkok Port, Viyada Suriyakul Na Ayudhaya, Praew Ritthirungrat

*World Maritime University Dissertations*

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- November 2018, 2018 University of Rhode Island

#### Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- November 2018, Leonard Lardaro

*The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index*

No abstract provided.

A Theory Of Conservative Revivals, 2018 University of Colorado, Boulder

#### A Theory Of Conservative Revivals, Murat Iyigun, Jared Rubin, Avner Seror

*ESI Working Papers*

Why do some societies fail to adopt more efficient political and economic institutions in response to changing economic conditions? And why do such conditions sometimes generate conservative ideological backlashes and, at other times, progressive social and political movements? We propose an explanation that highlights the interplay--or lack thereof--between productivity, cultural beliefs and institutions. In our model, production shocks that benefit one sector of the economy may induce forward-looking elites to provide public goods associated with a *di**fferent*, more traditional sector that benefits their interests. This investment results in more agents generating cultural beliefs complementary to the provision of the ...

Estimation Of Large Dimensional Factor Models With An Unknown Number Of Breaks, 2018 University of California, Riverside

#### Estimation Of Large Dimensional Factor Models With An Unknown Number Of Breaks, Shujie Ma, Liangjun Su

*Research Collection School Of Economics*

In this paper we study the estimation of a large dimensional factor model when the factor loadingsexhibit an unknown number of changes over time. We propose a novel three-step procedure to detect the breaks if any and then identify their locations. In the first step, we divide the whole time span into subintervals and fit a conventional factor model on each interval. In the second step, we apply the adaptive fused group Lasso to identify intervals containing a break. In the third step, we devise a grid search method to estimate the location of the break on each identified interval ...

News Co-Occurrence, Attention Spillover, And Return Predictability, 2018 Singapore Management University

#### News Co-Occurrence, Attention Spillover, And Return Predictability, Li Guo, Lin Peng, Yubo Tao, Jun Tu

*Research Collection School Of Economics*

We examine the effect of investor attention spillover on stock return predictability. Using a novel measure, the News Network Triggered Attention index (NNTA), we find that NNTA negatively predicts market returns with a monthly in(out)-of-sample R-square of 5.97% (5.80%). In the cross-section, a long-short portfolio based on news co-occurrence generates a significant monthly alpha of 68 basis points. The results are robust to the inclusion of alternative attention proxies, sentiment measures, other news- and information-based predictors, across recession and expansion periods. We further validate the attention spillover effect by showing that news co-mentioning leads to greater ...

Specification Tests Based On Mcmc Output, 2018 Singapore Management University

#### Specification Tests Based On Mcmc Output, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng

*Research Collection School Of Economics*

Two test statistics are proposed to determine model specification after a model is estimated by an MCMC method. The first test is the MCMC version of IOSA test and its asymptotic null distribution is normal. The second test is motivated from the power enhancement technique of Fan et al. (2015). It combines a component (J1) that tests a null point hypothesis in an expanded model and a power enhancement component (J0) obtained from the first test. It is shown that J0 converges to zero when the null model is correctly specified and diverges when the null model is misspecified. Also ...

Identifying Latent Grouped Patterns In Cointegrated Panels, 2018 Shanghai Jiaotong University

#### Identifying Latent Grouped Patterns In Cointegrated Panels, Wenxin Huang, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su

*Research Collection School Of Economics*

We consider a panel cointegration model with latent group structures that allows for heterogeneous long-run relationships across groups. We extend Su, Shi, and Phillips’ (2016) classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) method to the nonstationary panels and allow for the presence of endogeneity in both the stationary and nonstationary regressors in the model. In addition, we allow the dimension of the stationary regressors to diverge with the sample size. We show that we can identify the individuals’ group membership and estimate the group-specific long-run cointegrated relationships simultaneously. We demonstrate the desirable property of uniform classification consistency and the oracle properties of both the C-Lasso ...

The Grid Bootstrap For Continuous Time Models, 2018 Singapore Management University

#### The Grid Bootstrap For Continuous Time Models, Yiu Lim Lui, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

*Research Collection School Of Economics*

This paper considers the grid bootstrap for constructing confidence intervals for the persistence parameter in a class of continuous time models driven by a Levy process. Its asymptotic validity is established by assuming the sampling interval (h) shrinks to zero. Its improvement over the in-fill asymptotic theory is achieved by expanding the coefficient-based statistic around its in fill asymptotic distribution which is non-pivotal and depends on the initial condition. Monte Carlo studies show that the gird bootstrap method performs better than the in-fill asymptotic theory and much better than the long-span theory. Empirical applications to U.S. interest rate data ...

A Posterior-Based Wald-Type Statistic For Hypothesis Testing, 2018 Singapore Management University

#### A Posterior-Based Wald-Type Statistic For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiaobin Liu, Tao Zeng, Jun Yu

*Research Collection School Of Economics*

A new Wald-type statistic is proposed for hypothesis testing based on Bayesian posterior distributions. The new statistic can be explained as a posterior version of Wald test and have several nice properties. First, it is well-defined under improper prior distributions. Second, it avoids Jeffreys-Lindley's paradox. Third, under the null hypothesis and repeated sampling, it follows a x2 distribution asymptotically, offering an asymptotically pivotal test. Fourth, it only requires inverting the posterior covariance for the parameters of interest. Fifth and perhaps most importantly, when a random sample from the posterior distribution (such as an MCMC output) is available, the proposed ...

Agglomeration And The Extent Of The Market: An Experimental Investigation Into Spatially Coordinated Exchange, 2018 Chapman University

#### Agglomeration And The Extent Of The Market: An Experimental Investigation Into Spatially Coordinated Exchange, Jordan Adamson

*ESI Working Papers*

How and why do agglomerations emerge? While economic historians emphasize trade and economic geographers emphasize variety, we still don’t understand the role of coordination. I fill this gap by extending the model of Fudenberg and Ellison (2003) to formalize Smith’s (1776) theory of agglomeration. I then test the model in a laboratory experiment and find individuals tend to coalesce purely to coordinate exchange, with more agglomeration when there is a larger variety of goods in the economy. I also find that tying individuals to the land reduces agglomeration, but magnifies the effect of variety.

The Effects Of Student-Teacher Ratio On Test Scores: Applying Ceteris Paribus To California And Massachusetts Schools, 2018 Claremont McKenna College

#### The Effects Of Student-Teacher Ratio On Test Scores: Applying Ceteris Paribus To California And Massachusetts Schools, Laira Aggarwal

*Undergraduate Economic Review*

This paper seeks to analyze the impact of student-teacher ratio on test scores in California and Massachusetts. Since student-teacher ratio is just one of the variables affecting students’ learning outcomes, other attributes were taken into account for a comprehensive analysis. These attributes included percent of English learners, average district income, percent of students on free or reduced lunch, and expenditures per student. The data sets for both states were assessed both inherently and with ceteris paribus approach. The results indicated that while student-teacher ratio does affect test scores, other classroom variables have a significantly greater influence on students’ learning outcomes.

The Supply Side Determinants Of Territory And Conflict, 2018 Chapman University

#### The Supply Side Determinants Of Territory And Conflict, Jordan Adamson, Erik O. Kimbrough

*ESI Working Papers*

What determines the geographic extent of territory? We microfound and extend Boulding’s “Loss of Strength Gradient” to predict the extensive and intensive margins of conflict across space. We show how economies of scale in the production of violence and varying costs of projecting violence at a distance combine to affect the geographic distribution of conflict and territory. We test and probe the boundaries of this model in an experiment varying the fixed costs of conflict entry. As predicted, higher fixed costs increase the probability of exclusive territories; median behavior closely tracks equilibrium predictions in all treatments.

Experimental Research On Contests, 2018 Chapman University

#### Experimental Research On Contests, Roman M. Sheremeta

*ESI Working Papers*

Costly competitions between economic agents are modeled as contests. Researchers use laboratory experiments to study contests and test comparative static predictions of contest theory. Commonly, researchers find that participants’ efforts are significantly higher than predicted by the standard Nash equilibrium. Despite overbidding, most comparative static predictions, such as the incentive effect, the size effect, the discouragement effect and others are supported in the laboratory. In addition, experimental studies examine various contest structures, including dynamic contests (such as multi-stage races, wars of attrition, tug-of-wars), multi-dimensional contests (such as Colonel Blotto games), and contests between groups. This article provides a short review ...

Preferences (Partial Pre-Orders) On Complex Numbers -- In View Of Possible Use In Quantum Econometrics, 2018 Chiang Mai University

#### Preferences (Partial Pre-Orders) On Complex Numbers -- In View Of Possible Use In Quantum Econometrics, Songsak Sriboonchitta, Vladik Kreinovich, Olga Kosheleva

*Departmental Technical Reports (CS)*

In economic application, it is desirable to find an optimal solution -- i.e., a solution which is preferable to any other possible solution. Traditionally, the state of an economic system has been described by real-valued quantities such as profit, unemployment level, etc. For such quantities, preferences correspond to natural order between real numbers: all things being equal, the more profit the better, and the smaller unemployment, the better. Lately, it turned out that to adequately describe economic phenomena, it is often convenient to use complex numbers. From this viewpoint, a natural question is: what are possible orders on complex numbers ...

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2018, 2018 University of Rhode Island

#### Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2018, Leonard Lardaro

*The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index*

No abstract provided.