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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2019, Leonard Lardaro 2019 University of Rhode Island

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.


Limit Theory For Moderate Deviations From Integrated Garch Processes, Yubo TAO 2019 Singapore Management University

Limit Theory For Moderate Deviations From Integrated Garch Processes, Yubo Tao

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops the limit theory of the GARCH(1,1) process that moderately deviates from IGARCH process towards both stationary and explosive regimes. The asymptotic theory extends Berkes et al. (2005) by allowing the parameters to have a slower rate of convergence. The results can be applied to unit root test for processes with mildly-integrated GARCH innovations (e.g. Boswijk (2001), Cavaliere and Taylor (2007, 2009)) and deriving limit theory of estimators for models involving mildly-integrated GARCH processes (e.g. Jensen and Rahbek (2004), Francq and Zakoïan (2012, 2013).


A Time To Print, A Time To Reform, Lars Boerner, Jared Rubin, Battista Severgnini 2019 Martin-Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg

A Time To Print, A Time To Reform, Lars Boerner, Jared Rubin, Battista Severgnini

ESI Working Papers

The public mechanical clock and the movable type printing press were two of the most important and complex general purpose technologies of the late medieval period. We document two of their most important, yet unforeseeable, consequences. First, an instrumental variables analysis indicates that towns that were early adopters of clocks were more likely to also be early adopters of presses. We posit that towns with clocks became upper-tail human capital hubs|both technologies required extensive technical know-how that had many points of overlap. Second, a three-stage instrumental variables analysis indicates that the press influenced the adoption of Lutheranism and Calvinism ...


Wild Bootstrap For Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Designs: Obtaining Robust Bias-Corrected Confidence Intervals, Yang He, Otávio Bartalotti 2019 Freddie Mac

Wild Bootstrap For Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Designs: Obtaining Robust Bias-Corrected Confidence Intervals, Yang He, Otávio Bartalotti

Economics Working Papers

This paper develops a novel wild bootstrap procedure to construct robust bias- corrected valid confidence intervals (CIs) for fuzzy regression discontinuity designs, providing an intuitive alternative to existing analytical methods. The CIs generated by this procedure are valid under conditions similar to the standard analytical procedures used in the empirical literature. Simulations provide evidence that this new method is at least as accurate as the analytical corrections when applied to a variety of data generating processes featuring heteroskedasticity, endogeneity and clustering. Finally, we demonstrate its empirical relevance by revisiting Angrist and Lavy (1999) analysis of class size on student outcomes.


Forecasting Equity Index Volatility By Measuring The Linkage Among Component Stocks, Yue QIU, Tian XIE, Jun YU, Qiankun ZHOU 2019 Singapore Management University

Forecasting Equity Index Volatility By Measuring The Linkage Among Component Stocks, Yue Qiu, Tian Xie, Jun Yu, Qiankun Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

The linkage among the realized volatilities across component stocks are important when modeling and forecasting the relevant index volatility. In this paper, the linkage is measured via an extended Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach under a panel heterogeneous autoregression model where unobserved common factors in errors are assumed. Consistency of the CCE estimator is obtained. The common factors are extracted using the principal component analysis. Empirical studies show that realized volatility models exploiting the linkage effects lead to significantly better out-of-sample forecast performance, for example, an up to 32% increase in the pseudo R2. We also conduct various forecasting exercises ...


Identification Of Resource Extraction Technologies When The Resource Stock Is Unobservable, Quinn Weninger, Larry Perruso, Helle Bunzel 2019 Iowa State University

Identification Of Resource Extraction Technologies When The Resource Stock Is Unobservable, Quinn Weninger, Larry Perruso, Helle Bunzel

Economics Working Papers

This paper consistently estimates the structural properties of a fishery resource extraction technology. We overcome two ubiquitous features of fisheries data generating processes that invalidate classical estimators: unobservability by the researcher (but partial observability by fishermen) of the fish stock, and endogenous production decisions that vary with private information about stock abundance and economic variables. We adopt methods used in fisheries stock assessment to control for unobserved stock effects on productivity. A nonlinear instrumental variables estimator controls for endogenous choices of the output mix. The approach is applied to the US Gulf of Mexico commercial reef fish fishery. Comparison with ...


The Effect Of Per Capita Relief Spending On County Level Joblessness In The United States In 1937 & 1940, Mohammad S. Ahmed 2019 CUNY Hunter College

The Effect Of Per Capita Relief Spending On County Level Joblessness In The United States In 1937 & 1940, Mohammad S. Ahmed

School of Arts & Sciences Theses

This paper uses the 1937 and 1940 county level census data to estimate what effect did additional per capita relief spending have on joblessness in the United States in 1937 and 1940. To account for endogeneity in relief spending and its unequal/non-random distribution, an instrumental variables approach is used. The results show that additional per capita relief spending lowered joblessness in the United States in both years: 1937 and 1940.


Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- February 2019, Leonard Lardaro 2019 University of Rhode Island

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- February 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.


Asymptotic Theory For Estimating Drift Parameters In The Fractional Vasicek Model, Weilin XIAO, Jun YU 2019 Zhejiang University

Asymptotic Theory For Estimating Drift Parameters In The Fractional Vasicek Model, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article develops an asymptotic theory for estimators of two parameters in the drift function in the fractional Vasicek model when a continuous record of observations is available. The fractional Vasicek model with long-range dependence is assumed to be driven by a fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst parameter greater than or equal to one half. It is shown that, when the Hurst parameter is known, the asymptotic theory for the persistence parameter depends critically on its sign, corresponding asymptotically to the stationary case, the explosive case, and the null recurrent case. In all three cases, the least squares method ...


Refusal Bias In Hiv Data From The Demographic And Health Surveys: Evaluation, Critique And Recommendations, Oyelola A. ADEGBOYE, Tomoki FUJII, Denis H. Y. LEUNG 2019 James Cook University

Refusal Bias In Hiv Data From The Demographic And Health Surveys: Evaluation, Critique And Recommendations, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Non-response is a commonly encountered problem in many population-based surveys. Broadly speaking, non-response can be due to refusal or failure to contact the sample units. Although both types of non-response may lead to bias, there is much evidence to indicate that it is much easier to reduce the proportion of non-contacts than to do the same with refusals. In this article, we use data collected from a nationally-representative survey under the Demographic and Health Surveys program to study non-response due to refusals to HIV testing in Malawi. We review existing estimation methods and propose novel approaches to the estimation of ...


The Attack And Defense Games, Roman Sheremeta 2019 Chapman University

The Attack And Defense Games, Roman Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

The attack and defense game is a game in which an attacker (a group of attackers) has an incentive to revise the status quo and a defender (a group of defenders) wants to protect it. The asymmetry in objectives creates incompatible interests and results in a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium. However, this equilibrium could be heavily impacted by behavioral considerations.


Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Dror Goldberg, Avi Weiss 2019 Chapman University

Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Dror Goldberg, Avi Weiss

ESI Working Papers

The theory of money assumes decentralized bilateral exchange and excludes centralized multilateral exchange. However, endogenizing the exchange process is critical for understanding the conditions that support the use of money. We develop a “travelling game” to study the emergence of decentralized and centralized exchange, theoretically and experimentally. Players located on separate islands can either trade locally, or pay a cost to trade elsewhere, so decentralized and centralized markets can both emerge in equilibrium. The former minimize trade costs through monetary exchange; the latter maximizes overall surplus through non-monetary exchange. Monetary trade emerges when coordination is problematic, while centralized trade emerges ...


Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles McCann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin 2019 Souther Methodist University

Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin

SMU Data Science Review

Current models for predicting personal consumption expenditures (PCE) employ statistical techniques and rely upon traditional economic features. We compare vector autoregression and random forest regression models using traditional economic features as inputs to predict PCE. Additionally, we develop novel features derived from the earnings call transcripts of publicly traded U.S. companies using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. These new features reduce the mean square error (MSE) of the vector autoregression model by 7% and the random forest model by 23%. We find the random forest models outperformed the vector autoregression models, with a MSE reduction of 68%. We conclude ...


A Bias Aggregation Theorem, Mark Schneider 2019 Chapman University

A Bias Aggregation Theorem, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

In a market where some traders are rational (maximize expected utility) and others are systematically biased (deviate from expected utility due to some bias parameter, q), do equilibrium prices necessarily depend on q? In this note, focusing on the case where there is an aggregate and systematic bias in the population, we show that market prices can still be unbiased. Hence, we establish that systematically biased agents do not necessarily imply biased market prices. We show that the parametric model we use also predicts observed deviations from expected utility in laboratory and market environments.


Cooperation Among Strangers With And Without A Monetary System, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari 2019 University of Bologna

Cooperation Among Strangers With And Without A Monetary System, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

Human societies prosper when their members move beyond local exchange and cooperate with outsiders in the creation of wealth. Collaboration of this type presents formidable challenges because interaction is impersonal, reciprocity is unfeasible and trust cannot be easily established. Here we study this cooperation problem by modeling strategic interaction among strangers through an Intertemporal Exchange Game. The setup can be easily implemented in the laboratory to study a variety of cooperation-enhancing institutions. In particular, we study the role of a fiat monetary system by introducing intrinsically worthless tokens that can be offered in exchange for cooperation. The experiments show that ...


Lifestyle And Obesity In Canada-A Quantile Regression Approach, Khandoker Monjure Kabir 2019 University of Windsor

Lifestyle And Obesity In Canada-A Quantile Regression Approach, Khandoker Monjure Kabir

Major Papers

Objective: This study examines the relationship between BMI and some life-style variables, socio-economic status (SES) variables, and some socio-demographic variables related to behavior of individuals along different points of the BMI distribution by using quantile regression. Methods: A representative sample of 34,225 individuals of Canada form the Canadian Community Health survey 2014 is selected to conduct this study. Ordinary least squares (OLS) method is used at first to differentiate the results between conditional mean framework and conditional quantile framework. Quantile regression is estimated to analyze the heterogeneous relationship among fruits and vegetables, physical activity and BMI. Results: Analyses expose ...


1789 Tax List Of Philadelphia's 11 Wards, Billy G. Smith 2019 bgs@montana.edu

1789 Tax List Of Philadelphia's 11 Wards, Billy G. Smith

The Magazine of Early American Datasets (MEAD)

1789 TAX LIST OF PHILADELPHIA'S 11 WARDS, (an 80% random sample).

Note: the suburbs of N. Liberties and Southwark are not included. Poorer people tended to live disproportionately in those suburbs.

NOTE: After data was entered, I entered separately all the rental unit values, added these values to that of the owners and subtracted them from that of the renter.. See the further explanation in Codebook

Source: Philadelphia City Archives


Investigating The Effect Crime Has On Uber And Yellow Taxi Pickups In Nyc, Kebing Li 2019 Colby College

Investigating The Effect Crime Has On Uber And Yellow Taxi Pickups In Nyc, Kebing Li

Honors Theses

How to manage the relationship between Uber and the local taxi industry has been a long-lasting and hot topic for most of the major cities around the world. Whether Uber is stealing money from and undermining the local taxi drivers or it is beneficial for public transportation has no certain conclusions. In this paper, we focus on the city of New York, where both Uber and traditional Yellow Taxi play important roles in public transportation and city culture in general, and we are trying to investigate the factors that are going to affect Uber and Yellow Taxi pickups in New ...


M&A Performance: Market’S Initial Reaction As An Unbiased Indicator Of Post-Acquisition Performance, Nikolaos Papageorgiou 2019 Claremont Colleges

M&A Performance: Market’S Initial Reaction As An Unbiased Indicator Of Post-Acquisition Performance, Nikolaos Papageorgiou

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the reliability of the stock market’s initial reaction to M&A announcements as a predictor of actual post-acquisition performance. The two prevailing methods for evaluating M&A performance are event studies (stock market-based measures) and accounting-based measures. The present study combines these two performance evaluation approaches in a single empirical examination. Both the post-merger buy-and-hold abnormal returns and changes in ROA are used as actual post-acquisition performance variables. The acquirer’s cumulative abnormal return (CAR) around the announcement is used as the market predictor variable. An econometric model is employed to test the predictive power of ...


The Impacts Of Supra-Regional Multi-Resort Season Passes: A Hedonic Pricing Model Of Single-Day Lift Tickets For Us Ski Areas, Sijia Lai 2019 Claremont Colleges

The Impacts Of Supra-Regional Multi-Resort Season Passes: A Hedonic Pricing Model Of Single-Day Lift Tickets For Us Ski Areas, Sijia Lai

CMC Senior Theses

Numerous media analyses claim that supra-regional multi-resort season passes (mega passes) are negatively impacting skiing, snowboarding, and winter-sport communities. In particular, media claims that ski areas on these season passes are charging higher single-day lift ticket prices to nudge people to buy their season pass products. To test this claim, I use a hedonic pricing model to estimate the impact of season passes on adult single-day lift ticket prices. By applying OLS regressions to a dataset of 302 US ski areas for the winter of 2018-19, I find that the ski areas on the leading season passes (Ikon and Epic ...


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