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New Distribution Theory For The Estimation Of Structural Break Point In Mean, Liang JIANG, Xiaohu WANG, Jun YU 2018 Singapore Management University

New Distribution Theory For The Estimation Of Structural Break Point In Mean, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Based on the Girsanov theorem, this paper obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of structural break point in a continuous time model. The exact distribution is asymmetric and tri-modal, indicating that the estimator is biased. These two properties are also found in the finite sample distribution of the least squares (LS) estimator of structural break point in the discrete time model, suggesting the classical long-span asymptotic theory is inadequate. The paper then builds a continuous time approximation to the discrete time model and develops an in-fill asymptotic theory for the LS estimator. The in-fill asymptotic distribution is ...


Asymptotics And Bootstrap For Random-Effects Panel Data Transformation Models, Liangjun SU, Zhenlin YANG 2018 Singapore Management University

Asymptotics And Bootstrap For Random-Effects Panel Data Transformation Models, Liangjun Su, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article investigates the asymptotic properties of quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimators for random-effects panel data transformation models where both the response and (some of) the covariates are subject to transformations for inducing normality, flexible functional form, homoskedasticity, and simple model structure. We develop a QML-type procedure for model estimation and inference. We prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the QML estimators, and propose a simple bootstrap procedure that leads to a robust estimate of the variance-covariance (VC) matrix. Monte Carlo results reveal that the QML estimators perform well in finite samples, and that the gains by using the robust ...


Equilibrium Wage Rigidity In Directed Search, Gabriele Camera, Jaehong Kim 2018 Chapman University

Equilibrium Wage Rigidity In Directed Search, Gabriele Camera, Jaehong Kim

ESI Working Papers

Matching frictions and downward wage rigidity emerge as equilibrium phenomena in a twosided labor market where firms sustain variable wage adjustment costs. Firms post wages to attract workers and matches are endogenous. Reducing the wage relative to the wage previously posted is costly to the firm, where the cost is proportional to the size of the proposed cut. Shocks to the firm’s profitability may yield an equilibrium wage above what the firm would offer absent proportional adjustment costs. Wage cuts can be partial or full, immediate or delayed, and are non-linear in the shock size. Importantly, wages are sticky ...


Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2018, Leonard Lardaro 2018 University of Rhode Island

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2018, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.


Dispersion And Uncertainty In Density Forecasts: Evidence From Surveys Of Professional Forecasters, You LI 2018 Singapore Management University

Dispersion And Uncertainty In Density Forecasts: Evidence From Surveys Of Professional Forecasters, You Li

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation studies patterns of dispersion in density forecasts as reported in surveys of professional forecasters. We pay special attention to the role of uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts of real output growth and inflation. We also consider the relationship between survey design and forecaster behavior. The last chapter describes future research exploring the characteristics of forecaster expectations using probability integral transforms.

As a starting point, chapter one gives a summary of the literature that tries to answer, using data from survey of forecasters, the following three key questions: Why do forecasters disagree? What do density ...


Solar Energy For The Soul: Solving America’S Fuel Poverty Problem With Solar Panels For The Poor, Samantha St. Marie 2018 Union College

Solar Energy For The Soul: Solving America’S Fuel Poverty Problem With Solar Panels For The Poor, Samantha St. Marie

Honors Theses

In the United States today, at least 14 million Americans live in fuel poverty. These Americans spend at least ten percent of household income on energy costs ranging from fuel to electricity. The purpose of this thesis is to identify an innovative solution to mitigate the effects of the energy affordability crisis in the United States. After examining national trends and researching localized efforts, I determined that solar panels may be able to support the modern energy needs of the fuel poor. The study uses a least squares regression model with fixed effects to determine factors influencing solar adoption at ...


The Heterogeneous Effects Of The Minimum Wage On Employment Across States, Wuyi WANG, Peter C. B. PHILLIPS, Liangjun SU 2018 Jinan University - China

The Heterogeneous Effects Of The Minimum Wage On Employment Across States, Wuyi Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the relationship between the minimum wage and the employment rate in the US using the framework of a panel structure model. The approach allows the minimum wage, along with some other controls, to have heterogeneous effects on employment across states which are classified into a group structure. The effects on employment are the same within each group but differ across different groups. The number of groups and the group membership of each state are both unknown a priori. The approach employs the C-Lasso technique, a recently developed classification method that consistently estimates group structure and leads to ...


Inversion Copulas From Nonlinear State Space Models With An Application To Inflation Forecasting, Michael S. Smith, Worapree Ole Maneesoonthorn 2018 Melbourne Business School

Inversion Copulas From Nonlinear State Space Models With An Application To Inflation Forecasting, Michael S. Smith, Worapree Ole Maneesoonthorn

Michael Stanley Smith

We propose the construction of copulas through the inversion of nonlinear state space models. These copulas allow for new time series models that have the same serial dependence structure as a state space model, but with an arbitrary marginal distribution, and flexible density forecasts. We examine the time series properties of the copulas, outline serial dependence measures, and estimate the models using likelihood-based methods. Copulas constructed from three example state space models are considered: a stochastic volatility model with an unobserved component, a Markov switching autoregression, and a Gaussian linear unobserved component model. We show that all three inversion copulas ...


Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith 2018 Melbourne Business School

Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

There is a growing interest in allowing for asymmetry in the density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. 
In multivariate time series, this can be achieved with a copula model, where both serial and cross-sectional dependence is captured by a copula function, and the margins are nonparametric. Yet most existing copulas cannot capture heteroskedasticity well, which is a feature of many economic and financial time series. To do so, we propose a new copula created by the inversion of a multivariate unobserved component stochastic volatility model, and show how to estimate it using Bayesian methods. We fit the copula model to real-time ...


The Political Framing Of Public Policies: An Analysis Of Act 10 In Wisconsin, David Brooker 2018 Lawrence University

The Political Framing Of Public Policies: An Analysis Of Act 10 In Wisconsin, David Brooker

Lawrence University Honors Projects

Political framing of public policy is typically different than the actual effects of the policy. In the case of Act 10 there was an extremely negative perception from teachers in the state of Wisconsin especially when it came to their salaries despite little empirical difference in salaries. Wisconsin’s Act 10, which altered the state’s public-sector collective bargaining laws, provides a natural experiment to test the political framing of public policy. A survey was conducted of teachers across the state of Wisconsin to determine their opinions regarding Act 10 and salary data from Wisconsin and Missouri were collected for ...


Election Administration Within The Sphere Of Politics: How Bureaucracy Can Facilitate Democracy With Policy Decisions, Nicholas S. Martinez 2018 Florida International University

Election Administration Within The Sphere Of Politics: How Bureaucracy Can Facilitate Democracy With Policy Decisions, Nicholas S. Martinez

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Public bureaucracy finds itself in a strange place at the intersection of political science and public administration. Political science finds that, within representative democracy, discretion granted to bureaucrats threatens the nature of democracy by subverting politicians who represent the will of the people – bureaucracy vs democracy. At the same time, public administration holds that, in the interest of promoting democracy, bureaucracy should be objective in its implementation of policy in a way that eliminates the influence of politics from decision-making – politics vs bureaucracy. Those positions are seemingly contradictory in nature. From one perspective, bureaucracy is undemocratic because it is outside ...


The Economic Impacts Of A U.S. Withdrawal From Nafta: A Cge Analysis, Jonathan Liu 2018 University of Toronto Schools

The Economic Impacts Of A U.S. Withdrawal From Nafta: A Cge Analysis, Jonathan Liu

Undergraduate Economic Review

The aim of this study is to examine the economic impacts of a U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on Canada, Mexico and the United States. The shocks simulate scenarios in which the U.S instates penalizing tariff rates on NAFTA countries, a trade war between NAFTA members and a tariff reset to the WTO MFN rates. The effects of these tariff structures are analyzed under the framework of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a focus on macroeconomic variables and welfare. The findings show that, in all iterations, Mexico’s economy takes a ...


Empirical Essays In Household Economics, Hao Li 2018 Southern Methodist University

Empirical Essays In Household Economics, Hao Li

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation is consist of three empirical studies in economics. The first part empirically examines the effect of universal pre-k on labor force participation of fertility age women in Oklahoma. I investigate the policy effect from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. I apply the synthetic control method (SCM) to the Current Population Survey (CPS) data to identify the causal relationship between universal pre-k and female labor outcomes. I find that universal pre-k increases labor supply of women aged 25 to 45 in Oklahoma. The second empirical study focuses on how the birth outcomes of US children respond to exposure to ...


Using Monetary Incentives To Support Female Entrepreneurship: An Experimental Test Of Monetary Incentives In Abuja, Nigeria, Imuetinyan Aiguwurhuo 2018 University of San Francisco

Using Monetary Incentives To Support Female Entrepreneurship: An Experimental Test Of Monetary Incentives In Abuja, Nigeria, Imuetinyan Aiguwurhuo

Master's Theses

Gender gaps in entrepreneurship are a major problem everywhere, but especially in developing countries like Nigeria. Women across the world face high levels of discrimination and abuse. The process of empowering women in a society has the potential to boost economic growth and development. Inspired by the success of the Family Independence Initiative (FII), we designed a field experiment to estimate the impact of using monetary incentives to motivate female entrepreneurs in achieving their goals in collaboration with the National Center for Women Development (NCWD) in Abuja, Nigeria. Our results suggest that being in a peer support group, setting a ...


The Fisheries Crisis And Its People: An Econometric Sustainable Livelihoods Application For Low-Income Artisanal Fishers In Sierra Leone, Nathan Brock 2018 University of Wyoming

The Fisheries Crisis And Its People: An Econometric Sustainable Livelihoods Application For Low-Income Artisanal Fishers In Sierra Leone, Nathan Brock

Honors Theses AY 17/18

The global fisheries crisis is a topic of significant research across fields, including economics. It is evident that the current global fish stocks are declining, which has motivated environmental protection measures to be implemented. Low-income countries and their inhabitants are unevenly harmed by these environmental impacts, as artisanal fishing villages are dependent on fisheries for subsistence and livelihood. This case is particularly true in Sierra Leone, where poverty is evident, artisanal fishing communities exist, and dependence on fisheries is high (Kassam, et al. 2017; Teh, et al. 2016). Policy makers in these countries are faced with the challenge of mitigating ...


Do Climate Shocks Affect Smallholder Farmers’ Conservation Practices? Evidence From Peru, Heleene Tambet 2018 The University of San Francisco

Do Climate Shocks Affect Smallholder Farmers’ Conservation Practices? Evidence From Peru, Heleene Tambet

Master's Theses

Peruvian agriculture is estimated to be subject to the greatest impacts of climate change in South America. Resulting shifts in rainfall patterns and extreme temperature realizations impose more frequent abnormal weather shocks on farmers and their production decisions. I study the impact of such shocks on agricultural practice choices of farmers growing two main staples, maize and potato; namely, I analyze adoption of practices reducing soil degradation, practices aimed towards water conservation, and application of inorganic fertilizer. I utilize unique cross-sectional data from Peru National Agricultural Survey over the years 2014 to 2016 in conjunction with long-term climate data, and ...


The Impact Of Goal Settings And Self-Help Groups To Support Small Businesses: Experimental Evidence Using Female Entrepreneurs In Abuja Nigeria., Nneoma Nwobilor 2018 The University of San Francisco

The Impact Of Goal Settings And Self-Help Groups To Support Small Businesses: Experimental Evidence Using Female Entrepreneurs In Abuja Nigeria., Nneoma Nwobilor

Master's Theses

Approximately 57% of women in Nigeria from age 15-64 are involved in some form of employment, but there are still 17 million unemployed women (World Bank, 2016). Most of these women are involved in informal entrepreneurship due to external constraints. According to the World Bank, women who have no access to schooling are forced to find informal work to provide for themselves and their families. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of goal settings and support groups on small businesses among female small-scale business owners in Abuja Nigeria. The research conducted uses the experimental design created by the Family ...


Patriarchal Norms, Bargaining, And Gendered Attitudes On Intimate Partner Violence, Anna Eckenrode 2018 The University of San Francisco

Patriarchal Norms, Bargaining, And Gendered Attitudes On Intimate Partner Violence, Anna Eckenrode

Master's Theses

How do the underlying mechanisms of social norms and bargaining power relate to the acceptance of intimate partner violence within households? How do short run and long run determinants of gender norms affect attitudes toward IPV? This study begins to decompose the dynamics of the acceptance of IPV within couples using data from the Demographic Health Survey, as well as examine the relationship in the context of patriarchal societies using data from the Ethnographic Atlas. I find that females are more accepting than males of intimate partner violence, and females becoming more educated is associated with her being less accepting ...


The Causal Impact Of Cleft Lip And Palate Surgery On Psychological Wellbeing, Sam Manning 2018 The University of San Francisco

The Causal Impact Of Cleft Lip And Palate Surgery On Psychological Wellbeing, Sam Manning

Master's Theses

Cleft lip and/or cleft palate (CL/P) are birth conditions in which a newborn has an opening in the roof of their mouth or a slit in their upper lip. Left untreated, CL/P can lead to speech impediments and an unsightly orofacial deformity. However, a sequence of simple, common surgical procedures can restore function with minimal scarring. To date, the psychological effects of being born with CL/P have been investigated in the literature, but the restorative impact of CL/P surgery on psychological wellbeing has not been rigorously evaluated. This study uses a quasi-experimental approach to estimate ...


Female Risk Aversion: Experimental Evidence From Myanmar, O Mandalay 2018 The University of San Francisco

Female Risk Aversion: Experimental Evidence From Myanmar, O Mandalay

Master's Theses

Present literature shows that the risk tolerance of females is generally lower than that of males, but in some circumstances, it can exceed – when concerning the welfare of the offspring, for example. Many experiments and data suggest that the dynamics of female risk tolerance depend on context and type of rewards involved as well as cultural norms. In our experiment, holding the culture and the context fixed, we found that females took less risk than males. Our experiment was conducted in Myanmar using a lottery selection method to measure risk over five consecutive rounds. We found 1) female risk aversion ...


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