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The Impact Of Immigration On Financial Markets, Jesse Baker 2019 Utah State University

The Impact Of Immigration On Financial Markets, Jesse Baker

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports

This paper studies the impact of immigration policy on financial markets. I estimate the cumulative abnormal returns surrounding two events the effective start date of the Immigration Act of 1990 and the implementation of the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) of Nicaragua and Honduras in 1999. Focusing on agriculture, construction, and manufacturing firms, I find that the CARs surrounding the events are indeed positive and significant, suggesting that the market anticipated growth among industries that are likely to hire Central American immigrants.


The Role Of Income Inequality As A Predictor Of Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, Daniel Friedberg 2019 University of Lynchburg

The Role Of Income Inequality As A Predictor Of Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, Daniel Friedberg

Student Scholar Showcase

The role of income inequality in relation to gross domestic product is of great importance in modern time. Income inequality is a pressing phenomenon in the fields of economics, politics, and sociology, while Gross Domestic Product is the benchmark statistic in measuring the health of any economy. But how well does income inequality serve as a predictor for the level of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP per capita within a nation? This cross-sectional study determines that the GINI Index has no significant statistical relationship with PPP GDP per capita level. While income inequality is a major economic variable that contributes ...


Regression Discontinuity Designs With Clustered Data, Otávio Bartalotti, Quentin Brummet 2019 Iowa State University

Regression Discontinuity Designs With Clustered Data, Otávio Bartalotti, Quentin Brummet

Otávio Bartalotti

Regression discontinuity designs have become popular in empirical studies due to their attractive properties for estimating causal effects under transparent assumptions. Nonetheless, most popular procedures assume i.i.d. data, which is unreasonable in many common applications. To fill this gap, we derive the properties of traditional local polynomial estimators in a fixed- setting that allows for cluster dependence in the error term. Simulation results demonstrate that accounting for clustering in the data while selecting bandwidths may lead to lower MSE while maintaining proper coverage. We then apply our cluster-robust procedure to an application examining the impact of Low-Income Housing ...


Do Economic Inequalities Affect Long-Run Cooperation & Prosperity?, Gabriele Camera, Cary Deck, David Porter 2019 Chapman University

Do Economic Inequalities Affect Long-Run Cooperation & Prosperity?, Gabriele Camera, Cary Deck, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

We explore if fairness and inequality motivations affect cooperation in indefinitely repeated games. Each round, we randomly divided experimental participants into donor-recipient pairs. Donors could make a gift to recipients, and ex-ante earnings are highest when all donors give. Roles were randomly reassigned every period, which induced inequality in ex-post earnings. Theoretically, income-maximizing players do not have to condition on this inequality because it is payoff-irrelevant. Empirically, payoff-irrelevant inequality affected participants’ ability to coordinate on efficient play: donors conditioned gifts on their own past roles and, with inequalities made visible, discriminated against those who were better off.


The Will Of The People: Measuring Social Divides In Multi-Dimensional Choice Settings, Sunanda Roy, Kuan Chuen Wu, Abhijit Chandra 2019 Iowa State University

The Will Of The People: Measuring Social Divides In Multi-Dimensional Choice Settings, Sunanda Roy, Kuan Chuen Wu, Abhijit Chandra

Economics Working Papers

The paper studies profile components that cause plurality scores to differ from scores under other positional methods. We focus especially on the differences between plurality tallies and the Borda Count. We show that these profile components consist of an equal number of voters supporting a specific candidate in the first and last places. In particular they have an equal number of voters supporting a specific preference order and its reverse. In light of recent attention on partisanship and political polarization, it is important to have measures of such profiles and an assessment of how much they contribute to positional tallies ...


The Political Economy Of Foreign Aid And Growth: Theory And Evidence, Sultan Mehmood, Avner Seror 2019 University of Paris

The Political Economy Of Foreign Aid And Growth: Theory And Evidence, Sultan Mehmood, Avner Seror

ESI Working Papers

In this paper, we demonstrate that even when foreign aid is used to fund patronage, it may still have a positive - and significant - effect on economic growth in developing countries. First, we present a theory that formalizes the effect of aid on economic growth and patronage. Next, we provide evidence from Pakistan consistent with the predictions of the model that foreign aid increases economic growth, despite being used for patronage. The identification strategy we propose allows us to provide causal evidence for the predictions of the model.


Designing Call Auction Institutions To Eliminate Price Bubbles: Is English Dutch The Best?, Cary Deck, Maroš Servátka, Steven Tucker 2019 Chapman University

Designing Call Auction Institutions To Eliminate Price Bubbles: Is English Dutch The Best?, Cary Deck, Maroš Servátka, Steven Tucker

ESI Working Papers

The bubble and burst pattern in asset market experiments is among the most replicable results in experimental economics. Numerous studies have searched for means to reduce this mispricing. Using controlled laboratory experiments, we compare mispricing in standard double auction markets to prices in two clock auctions. The double Dutch auction, shown to be more efficient than the double auction in commodity market experiments, does not eliminate bubbles. However, the English Dutch auction does yield prices reflective of underlying fundamentals and succeeds in taming bubbles even with inexperienced traders in the common declining fundamental value environment.


Salience And Social Choice, Mark Schneider, Jonathan W. Leland 2019 Chapman University

Salience And Social Choice, Mark Schneider, Jonathan W. Leland

ESI Working Papers

The axioms of expected utility and discounted utility theory have been tested extensively. In contrast, the axioms of social welfare functions have only been tested in a few questionnaire studies involving choices between hypothetical income distributions. In this note, we conduct a controlled experiment with 100 subjects in the role of social planners that tests five fundamental properties of social welfare functions to provide a basic test of cardinal social choice theory. We find that four properties of the standard social welfare functions tested are systematically violated, producing an Allais paradox, a common ratio effect, a framing effect, and a ...


A Time To Print, A Time To Reform, Lars Boerner, Jared Rubin, Battista Severgnini 2019 Martin-Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg

A Time To Print, A Time To Reform, Lars Boerner, Jared Rubin, Battista Severgnini

ESI Working Papers

The public mechanical clock and the movable type printing press were two of the most important and complex general purpose technologies of the late medieval period. We document two of their most important, yet unforeseeable, consequences. First, an instrumental variables analysis indicates that towns that were early adopters of clocks were more likely to also be early adopters of presses. We posit that towns with clocks became upper-tail human capital hubs|both technologies required extensive technical know-how that had many points of overlap. Second, a three-stage instrumental variables analysis indicates that the press influenced the adoption of Lutheranism and Calvinism ...


Forecasting Equity Index Volatility By Measuring The Linkage Among Component Stocks, Yue QIU, Tian XIE, Jun YU, Qiankun ZHOU 2019 Singapore Management University

Forecasting Equity Index Volatility By Measuring The Linkage Among Component Stocks, Yue Qiu, Tian Xie, Jun Yu, Qiankun Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

The linkage among the realized volatilities across component stocks are important when modeling and forecasting the relevant index volatility. In this paper, the linkage is measured via an extended Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach under a panel heterogeneous autoregression model where unobserved common factors in errors are assumed. Consistency of the CCE estimator is obtained. The common factors are extracted using the principal component analysis. Empirical studies show that realized volatility models exploiting the linkage effects lead to significantly better out-of-sample forecast performance, for example, an up to 32% increase in the pseudo R2. We also conduct various forecasting exercises ...


Identification Of Resource Extraction Technologies When The Resource Stock Is Unobservable, Quinn Weninger, Larry Perruso, Helle Bunzel 2019 Iowa State University

Identification Of Resource Extraction Technologies When The Resource Stock Is Unobservable, Quinn Weninger, Larry Perruso, Helle Bunzel

Economics Working Papers

This paper consistently estimates the structural properties of a fishery resource extraction technology. We overcome two ubiquitous features of fisheries data generating processes that invalidate classical estimators: unobservability by the researcher (but partial observability by fishermen) of the fish stock, and endogenous production decisions that vary with private information about stock abundance and economic variables. We adopt methods used in fisheries stock assessment to control for unobserved stock effects on productivity. A nonlinear instrumental variables estimator controls for endogenous choices of the output mix. The approach is applied to the US Gulf of Mexico commercial reef fish fishery. Comparison with ...


The Effect Of Per Capita Relief Spending On County Level Joblessness In The United States In 1937 & 1940, Mohammad S. Ahmed 2019 CUNY Hunter College

The Effect Of Per Capita Relief Spending On County Level Joblessness In The United States In 1937 & 1940, Mohammad S. Ahmed

School of Arts & Sciences Theses

This paper uses the 1937 and 1940 county level census data to estimate what effect did additional per capita relief spending have on joblessness in the United States in 1937 and 1940. To account for endogeneity in relief spending and its unequal/non-random distribution, an instrumental variables approach is used. The results show that additional per capita relief spending lowered joblessness in the United States in both years: 1937 and 1940.


Refusal Bias In Hiv Data From The Demographic And Health Surveys: Evaluation, Critique And Recommendations, Oyelola A. ADEGBOYE, Tomoki FUJII, Denis H. Y. LEUNG 2019 James Cook University

Refusal Bias In Hiv Data From The Demographic And Health Surveys: Evaluation, Critique And Recommendations, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Non-response is a commonly encountered problem in many population-based surveys. Broadly speaking, non-response can be due to refusal or failure to contact the sample units. Although both types of non-response may lead to bias, there is much evidence to indicate that it is much easier to reduce the proportion of non-contacts than to do the same with refusals. In this article, we use data collected from a nationally-representative survey under the Demographic and Health Surveys program to study non-response due to refusals to HIV testing in Malawi. We review existing estimation methods and propose novel approaches to the estimation of ...


Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Dror Goldberg, Avi Weiss 2019 Chapman University

Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Dror Goldberg, Avi Weiss

ESI Working Papers

The theory of money assumes decentralized bilateral exchange and excludes centralized multilateral exchange. However, endogenizing the exchange process is critical for understanding the conditions that support the use of money. We develop a “travelling game” to study the emergence of decentralized and centralized exchange, theoretically and experimentally. Players located on separate islands can either trade locally, or pay a cost to trade elsewhere, so decentralized and centralized markets can both emerge in equilibrium. The former minimize trade costs through monetary exchange; the latter maximizes overall surplus through non-monetary exchange. Monetary trade emerges when coordination is problematic, while centralized trade emerges ...


Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles McCann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin 2019 Souther Methodist University

Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin

SMU Data Science Review

Current models for predicting personal consumption expenditures (PCE) employ statistical techniques and rely upon traditional economic features. We compare vector autoregression and random forest regression models using traditional economic features as inputs to predict PCE. Additionally, we develop novel features derived from the earnings call transcripts of publicly traded U.S. companies using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. These new features reduce the mean square error (MSE) of the vector autoregression model by 7% and the random forest model by 23%. We find the random forest models outperformed the vector autoregression models, with a MSE reduction of 68%. We conclude ...


A Bias Aggregation Theorem, Mark Schneider 2019 Chapman University

A Bias Aggregation Theorem, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

In a market where some traders are rational (maximize expected utility) and others are systematically biased (deviate from expected utility due to some bias parameter, q), do equilibrium prices necessarily depend on q? In this note, focusing on the case where there is an aggregate and systematic bias in the population, we show that market prices can still be unbiased. Hence, we establish that systematically biased agents do not necessarily imply biased market prices. We show that the parametric model we use also predicts observed deviations from expected utility in laboratory and market environments.


Cooperation Among Strangers With And Without A Monetary System, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari 2019 University of Bologna

Cooperation Among Strangers With And Without A Monetary System, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

Human societies prosper when their members move beyond local exchange and cooperate with outsiders in the creation of wealth. Collaboration of this type presents formidable challenges because interaction is impersonal, reciprocity is unfeasible and trust cannot be easily established. Here we study this cooperation problem by modeling strategic interaction among strangers through an Intertemporal Exchange Game. The setup can be easily implemented in the laboratory to study a variety of cooperation-enhancing institutions. In particular, we study the role of a fiat monetary system by introducing intrinsically worthless tokens that can be offered in exchange for cooperation. The experiments show that ...


The Impact Of Transportation Network Companies On Public Transit: A Case Study At The San Francisco International Airport, Lianne Renee Sturgeon 2019 Scripps College

The Impact Of Transportation Network Companies On Public Transit: A Case Study At The San Francisco International Airport, Lianne Renee Sturgeon

Scripps Senior Theses

The emergence and rapid growth of Transportation Network Companies (TNCs), such as Uber and Lyft, has challenged the transportation industry by offering a new mode of transportation to consumers. It is imperative that transit agencies and cities understand the effect of TNCs on public transit usage to make informed decisions. This study analyzes the impact of TNCs on Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) ridership at the San Francisco International Airport (SFO) to measure the effect of TNCs on public transit. Using a fixed effects model to analyze hourly BART and TNC ridership data from 2011 to 2018, these findings suggest ...


An Examination Of The Stock Market's Effect On Economic Inequality, Nicholas Golina 2019 The University of Akron

An Examination Of The Stock Market's Effect On Economic Inequality, Nicholas Golina

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

The economic literature on economic inequality has shown that it can negatively impact aggregate demand because it indicates a higher concentration of wealth in the hands of the top 10% as opposed to the poor and middle class, who are more likely to consume. The literature has identified many factors that can lead to increasing inequality. The stock market could be one of those factors since it can either create an upward redistributive effect towards the top 10% or redistributive effect towards the middle class. This paper tested the effect of the stock market on inequality. This study contributes to ...


The Impact Of Regional Return On Education On The Self-Selection Of Mexican Immigrants, Warren Chen 2019 Claremont Colleges

The Impact Of Regional Return On Education On The Self-Selection Of Mexican Immigrants, Warren Chen

CMC Senior Theses

This paper uses the 2010 Mexican Population and Housing Survey to examine the role of regional return to education on migrant selection. The study uses a standard linear regression model to predict the educational attainment of migrants and compares it to the educational attainment of non-migrants in each Mexican State. It finds evidence of negative selection, that less educated Mexican citizens are more likely to migrate to the United States. It also finds little evidence of the impact of regional return to education on migrant selection. The study offers potential explanations for the lack of impact and suggests avenues for ...


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