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Political Science

Michael S Lewis-Beck

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Full-Text Articles in Political Science

Jobs And The Job Of President: A Forecast For 2004, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien Aug 2009

Jobs And The Job Of President: A Forecast For 2004, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien

Michael S Lewis-Beck

During spring 2000, we released to the press a preliminary forecast of a Gore victory. Indeed, one of us, in a widely-read quotation, declared, "It's not even going to be close" (Washington Post, May 26, 2000, p. 1). We were wrong, as were all of our fellow modelers. Indeed, among "five of the best forecasters" identified by Robert Kaiser (Washington Post, May 26, 2000, p. 1), the Gore projection ranged from 53% to 60% of the two-party popular vote, pointing to a Democratic landslide. Such gross error raises the question: Should the models be junked? Some journalists, pundits, and ...


Comparative Democracy: The Economic Development Thesis, Ross E. Burkhart, Michael S. Lewis-Beck Aug 2009

Comparative Democracy: The Economic Development Thesis, Ross E. Burkhart, Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Michael S Lewis-Beck

In comparative politics, an established finding--that economic development fosters democratic performance--has recently come under challenge. We counter this challenge with a dynamic pooled time series analysis of a major, but neglected data set from 131 nations. The final generalized least squares-autoregressive moving averages estimates (N = 2,096) appear robust and indicate strong economic development effects, dependent in part on the nation's position in the world system. For the first time, rather hard evidence is offered on the causal relationship between economics and democracy. According to Granger tests, economic development "causes" democracy, but democracy does not "cause" economic development. Overall ...


Does Economics Still Matter? Econometrics And The Vote, Michael S. Lewis-Beck Aug 2009

Does Economics Still Matter? Econometrics And The Vote, Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Michael S Lewis-Beck

Evans and Andersen make the provocative argument that the effects of economic perceptions on political support are greatly exaggerated, owing to the endogeneity of economic perceptions with respect to partisanship. I question their claim, for several reasons. First, the dependent variable measure of popularity is unusual. Second, the causal modeling is based on debatable assumptions that could be behind these surprising results. Third, in the United Kingdom and the United States, evidence suggests that national economic perceptions reflect closely the real economy. There may well be an endogeneity problem in economic voting studies, but it more likely runs from economic ...


The Transformation Of The American State: The New Era-New Deal Test, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Peverill Squire Aug 2009

The Transformation Of The American State: The New Era-New Deal Test, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Peverill Squire

Michael S Lewis-Beck

Political scientists usually view the New Deal as transforming the American state. A sizable literature in economics and history, however, has cast doubt on the significance of the changes wrought by the FDR administration. In this paper we propose a model of the state, and then test important hypotheses about it. More specifically, we focus on the New Era-New Deal period to test how, if at all, the American state changed during this critical time in its history. We systematically analyze five state functions: stabilization, redistribution, regulation, police power, and administration. Within each category, quantitative policy measures are evaluated. Although ...


Modeling The Future: Lessons From The Gore Forecast, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien Aug 2009

Modeling The Future: Lessons From The Gore Forecast, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien

Michael S Lewis-Beck

No abstract provided.


Anchoring The French Voter: Ideology Versus Party, Christopher J. Fleury, Michael S. Lewis-Beck Aug 2009

Anchoring The French Voter: Ideology Versus Party, Christopher J. Fleury, Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Michael S Lewis-Beck

In their pivotal 1986 volume, Converse and Pierce rekindle the debate over whether left-right ideological attachment or party identification serves as the psychological anchor of the French electorate. They argue that, much like Americans, French voters use partisanship to orient themselves to the political landscape. Our study, which employs the data used by Converse and Pierce, draws a different conclusion. We find that ideology, in terms of both scope and strength, clearly exceeds party in its importance for vote choice.


Split-Ticket Voting: The Effects Of Cognitive Madisonianism, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Richard Nadeau Aug 2009

Split-Ticket Voting: The Effects Of Cognitive Madisonianism, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Richard Nadeau

Michael S Lewis-Beck

Split-ticket voting has recently received special attention, because it provides a possible microlevel explanation for institutionally divided government. Are split-ticket voters intentional, selecting one party for president and another for Congress, in order to somehow check and balance government? A general model of split-ticket voting is specified, taking into account the important but neglected interaction effects of party, candidate quality, and incumbency. Then, cognitive Madisonian variables are incorporated and logistic regression models estimated on 1992 and 1996 national election data. Strong cognitive Madisonian effects are found. Model Madisonians, who seek to divide power and balance policy, make up over 20 ...


The Politics Of Institutional Choice: Presidential Ballot Access For Third Parties In The United States, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Peverill Squire Aug 2009

The Politics Of Institutional Choice: Presidential Ballot Access For Third Parties In The United States, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Peverill Squire

Michael S Lewis-Beck

During the nineteenth century, a presidential voter actually selected a party-prepared candidate list, casting it in full view of others. The "Australian" ballot, adopted in nearly all states by 1900, took away party preparation of the ballot. State officials now prepared overall candidate lists from which the voter picked in secret. The introduction of the Australian ballot was heralded as a blow against political corruption and for "good government". But practical questions arose. With the state itself responsible for the ballot, how should it decide which candidates to list? Some barriers to entry seemed necessary, otherwise the list would be ...


Maintaining Economic Competition: The Causes And Consequences Of Antitrust, Michael S. Lewis-Beck Aug 2009

Maintaining Economic Competition: The Causes And Consequences Of Antitrust, Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Michael S Lewis-Beck

No abstract provided.


Party Ideology Institutions And The 1995 French Presidential Election, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Kevin Chlarson Aug 2009

Party Ideology Institutions And The 1995 French Presidential Election, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Kevin Chlarson

Michael S Lewis-Beck

In French election studies, a central debate concerns the French voter's "standing decision" -- is it party or ideology? The debate has been ongoing because of data and measurement issues and, we add, because of an inadequate understanding of the role electoral institutions play. The 1995 French National Election Study allows a fresh attack on these questions. It contains promising party and ideology measures, on a very large national sample. Both party identification and left-right ideological identification are shown to be widely held, with the latter more so. Their relative structural effects are found to depend heavily on the dynamics ...


Race Blunts The Economic Effect? The 2008 Obama Forecast, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien Aug 2009

Race Blunts The Economic Effect? The 2008 Obama Forecast, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien

Michael S Lewis-Beck

The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models. In summer 2008, our Jobs Model forecast a Democratic presidential candidate two-party popular vote share of 56.6%, which would deliver the incumbent party the biggest defeat of any post-World War II contest (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2008). However, we argued, from our analysis of different experimental and observational evidence, that this unprecedented victory would be prevented by racially intolerant voters. We estimated the net racial cost ...


Are Senate Election Outcomes Predictable?, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Tom W. Rice Aug 2009

Are Senate Election Outcomes Predictable?, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Tom W. Rice

Michael S Lewis-Beck

No abstract provided.


[Letter To The Editor], Michael S. Lewis-Beck Aug 2009

[Letter To The Editor], Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Michael S Lewis-Beck

No abstract provided.


Citizen Forecasting: Can Voters See Into The Future?, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Andrew Skalaban Aug 2009

Citizen Forecasting: Can Voters See Into The Future?, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Andrew Skalaban

Michael S Lewis-Beck

Political science, unlike economics, does not have a long tradition of forecasting models. However, this is changing. Currently, there is considerable interest in election forecasting. The basis for the interest is a flurry of related publications on House, Senate and presidential elections. A common goal for these studies is the development of a model, inevitably based on aggregate time-series data, which predicts election returns. The resulting models, some of which are quite accurate, can differ a good deal in specification and estimation. Also, they vary in complexity, making them more or less accessible to the engaged voter.


Déjà Vu All Over Again: A Comment On The Comment Of Converse And Pierce, Christopher J. Fleury, Michael S. Lewis-Beck Aug 2009

Déjà Vu All Over Again: A Comment On The Comment Of Converse And Pierce, Christopher J. Fleury, Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Michael S Lewis-Beck

No abstract provided.


Iowa: The Most Representative State?, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Peverill Squire Aug 2009

Iowa: The Most Representative State?, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Peverill Squire

Michael S Lewis-Beck

There are perhaps many good arguments for Iowa maintaining its "first in the nation" status, in terms of the presidential nomination process. The strongest, however, would seem to be an argument that it is representative of the nation as a whole. That is, somehow, Iowa is a microcosm of the national political forces, faithfully mirroring the relevant electoral structures and choices of the macro-stage. This belief is certainly held by some. Palo Alto County, in northwestern Iowa, has long been considered a presidential bellwether, faithfully voting with the winning candidate in a series beginning in 1916. But as media worthy ...


The Relative Importance Of Socioeconomic And Political Variables For Public Policy, Michael S. Lewis-Beck Aug 2009

The Relative Importance Of Socioeconomic And Political Variables For Public Policy, Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Michael S Lewis-Beck

No abstract provided.


Correlates Of Publication Success: Some Ajps Results, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Dena Levy Aug 2009

Correlates Of Publication Success: Some Ajps Results, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Dena Levy

Michael S Lewis-Beck

No abstract provided.