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Political Science Commons

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

2016

Models and Methods

Journal

Genocide; early warning; risk assessment; prediction; forecasting

Articles 1 - 1 of 1

Full-Text Articles in Political Science

Predicting Genocide And Mass Atrocities, Ernesto Verdeja Feb 2016

Predicting Genocide And Mass Atrocities, Ernesto Verdeja

Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal

This article examines several current risk assessment and early warning models to predict genocide and mass atrocities. Risk assessment (RA) concerns a country’s long­-term structural conditions (regime type, state-led discrimination, etc.) that determine overall risk for atrocities. Early warning (EW) focuses on short/midterm dynamics that can serve as triggers. The article evaluates contemporary RA and EW forecast modeling, and asks: How well can we predict mass atrocities and genocide? What are the strengths and limitations to current predictive modeling? Part I examines several quantitative (statistical) RA models and identifies several strengths and limitations in current research. Part ...