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Political Science Commons

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

2016

Models and Methods

University of Pennsylvania

Articles 1 - 1 of 1

Full-Text Articles in Political Science

The Pollyvote Forecast For The 2016 American Presidential Election, Andreas Graefe, Randall J. Jones, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán Oct 2016

The Pollyvote Forecast For The 2016 American Presidential Election, Andreas Graefe, Randall J. Jones, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán

Marketing Papers

The PollyVote applies a century-old principle of combining different evidence-based methods for forecasting the outcome of American presidential elections. In this article, we discuss the principles followed in constructing the PollyVote formula, summarize its components, review the accuracy of its previous forecasts, and make a prediction for this year's presidential election.