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Full-Text Articles in Political Science

Accuracy Of Combined Forecasts For The 2012 Presidential Election: The Pollyvote, Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones, Alfred G. Cuzán Apr 2014

Accuracy Of Combined Forecasts For The 2012 Presidential Election: The Pollyvote, Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones, Alfred G. Cuzán

Marketing Papers

We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as well as the forecasts from FiveThirtyEight.com. Gains in accuracy were particularly large early in the campaign, when uncertainty about the election outcome is typically high. The results confirm prior research showing that combining is one of the most effective approaches to generating accurate forecasts.


The Effect Of Entry Regulation In The Health Care Sector: The Case Of Home Health, Daniel Polsky, Guy David, Jianing Yang, Bruce Kinosian, Rachel M. Werner Feb 2014

The Effect Of Entry Regulation In The Health Care Sector: The Case Of Home Health, Daniel Polsky, Guy David, Jianing Yang, Bruce Kinosian, Rachel M. Werner

Health Care Management Papers

The consequences of government regulation in the post-acute care sector are not well understood. We examine the effect of entry regulation on quality of care in home health care by analyzing the universe of hospital discharges during 2006 for publicly insured beneficiaries (about 4.5 million) and subsequent home health admissions to determine whether there is a significant difference in home health utilization, hospital readmission rates, and health care expenditures in states with and without Certificate of Need laws (CON) regulating entry. We identify these effects by looking across regulated and nonregulated states within Hospital Referral Regions, which characterize well-defined ...


Advertising, Big Data, And The Clearance Of The Public Realm: Marketers’ New Approaches To The Content Subsidy, Nick Couldry, Joseph Turow Jan 2014

Advertising, Big Data, And The Clearance Of The Public Realm: Marketers’ New Approaches To The Content Subsidy, Nick Couldry, Joseph Turow

Departmental Papers (ASC)

This article addresses implications for democracy of two interconnected developments involving big data and the media. One is the targeting of consumers for advertising by marketers and the new data-capture industry that supports them. The other involves the transformation of advertisers’ approach to subsidizing media content production. We describe these developments and consider their consequences for democratic life, drawing on classical and recent democratic theory (Paine, Dahl, Mouffe, Rosanvallon). We conclude that big data’s embedding in personalized marketing and content production threatens the ecology of connections that link citizens and groups via information, argumentation, empathy, and celebration as members ...