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Political Science Commons

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2009

Department of Political Science Publications

Articles 1 - 7 of 7

Full-Text Articles in Political Science

Regional Voting In Russia's Federal Elections And Changing Regional Deference To The Kremlin, William M Reisinger, Bryon J Moraski Apr 2009

Regional Voting In Russia's Federal Elections And Changing Regional Deference To The Kremlin, William M Reisinger, Bryon J Moraski

Department of Political Science Publications

We analyze voting returns from ten federal-level Russian elections (1991-2008) using political, economic, social and demographic data to assess regional distinctiveness, clustering and change over time.


The Decline Of The White Idiosyncratic: Racialization And Otherness In Costa Rica, Erica Townsend-Bell Feb 2009

The Decline Of The White Idiosyncratic: Racialization And Otherness In Costa Rica, Erica Townsend-Bell

Department of Political Science Publications

This paper employs comparative historical analysis to trace the development of shifting notions of otherness and changes in the racialization of Nicas and Afro-Costa Ricans over time. I find that both Afro-Costarrican and Nicaraguan minority groups have been central to the national identity, albeit in distinct ways. Racialized comparisons between “dark-skinned” Nicaraguans and “white” Costa Ricans, has created a third way in the Costa Rican context, where traditionally mestizo Nicaraguan immigrants become darkened or “blackened” and Afro-Costa Ricans are simultaneously privileged and disadvantaged as localized and preferred others.


A Supply Side Theory Of Mediation, Mark J.C. Crescenzi, Kelly M Kadera, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell, Clayton L Thyne Jan 2009

A Supply Side Theory Of Mediation, Mark J.C. Crescenzi, Kelly M Kadera, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell, Clayton L Thyne

Department of Political Science Publications

We develop and test a theory of the supply side of third party conflict management. Building on an existing formal model of mediation (Kydd 2003), we consider several factors that increase the pool of potential neutral mediators and the frequency of mediators’ efforts to manage interstate conflicts. First, we argue that democratic mediators face greater audience costs for deception in the conflict management process because the media in democratic states is more likely to uncover attempts by democratic mediators to provide false information. Second, we argue that information in the global mediation marketplace becomes more accurate as the international system ...


Race Blunts The Economic Effect? The 2008 Obama Forecast, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien Jan 2009

Race Blunts The Economic Effect? The 2008 Obama Forecast, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien

Department of Political Science Publications

The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models. In summer 2008, our Jobs Model forecast a Democratic presidential candidate two-party popular vote share of 56.6%, which would deliver the incumbent party the biggest defeat of any post-World War II contest (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2008). However, we argued, from our analysis of different experimental and observational evidence, that this unprecedented victory would be prevented by racially intolerant voters. We estimated the net racial cost ...


Reforming The Presidential Nomination Process, Caroline Tolbert, Peverill Squire Jan 2009

Reforming The Presidential Nomination Process, Caroline Tolbert, Peverill Squire

Department of Political Science Publications

The 2008 presidential nomination was marked by the most aggressive frontloading in recent history; the process was a mess from the outset. Frontloading is the trend in recent presidential nominations in which states schedule their primaries and caucuses near the beginning of the delegate-selection season to have a greater impact on the process. In 1976, 10% of the delegates had been chosen by March 2. In 2008, 70% of the delegates had been chosen by that same date. As part of their ongoing efforts to address frontloading and other problems, both the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Republican National Committee ...


Iowa: The Most Representative State?, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Peverill Squire Jan 2009

Iowa: The Most Representative State?, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Peverill Squire

Department of Political Science Publications

There are perhaps many good arguments for Iowa maintaining its "first in the nation" status, in terms of the presidential nomination process. The strongest, however, would seem to be an argument that it is representative of the nation as a whole. That is, somehow, Iowa is a microcosm of the national political forces, faithfully mirroring the relevant electoral structures and choices of the macro-stage. This belief is certainly held by some. Palo Alto County, in northwestern Iowa, has long been considered a presidential bellwether, faithfully voting with the winning candidate in a series beginning in 1916. But as media worthy ...


Reforming Presidential Nominations: Rotating State Primaries Or A National Primary?, Caroline J. Tolbert, David P. Redlawsk, Daniel C. Bowen Jan 2009

Reforming Presidential Nominations: Rotating State Primaries Or A National Primary?, Caroline J. Tolbert, David P. Redlawsk, Daniel C. Bowen

Department of Political Science Publications

As part of their ongoing efforts to address frontloading and other perceived problems, both the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Republican National Committee (RNC) proposed revised schedules and rules for 2008. The major changes for the Democrats were that two new states were allowed to join Iowa and New Hampshire in violating the official February 5 start date. The idea was that these states -- Nevada from the West and South Carolina from the South -- would enhance participation by more diverse populations (Latinos and African Americans). While the Republican rules called for states to lose half of their delegate vote if ...