Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Political Science Commons

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Articles 1 - 15 of 15

Full-Text Articles in Political Science

The Job Of President And The Jobs Model Forecast: Obama For '08?, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien Oct 2008

The Job Of President And The Jobs Model Forecast: Obama For '08?, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien

Department of Political Science Publications

The statistical modelers are back. The presidential election forecasting errors of 2000 did not repeat themselves in 2004. On the contrary, the forecasts, from at least seven different teams, were generally quite accurate (Campbell 2004; Lewis-Beck 2005). Encouragingly, their prowess is receiving attention from forecasters outside the social sciences, in fields such as engineering and commerce. Noteworthy here is the recent special issue on U.S. presidential election forecasting published in the International Journal of Forecasting, containing some 10 different papers (Campbell and Lewis-Beck 2008). Our contribution in that special issue explored the question of whether our Jobs Model, off ...


How Democracies Keep The Peace: Contextual Factors That Influence Conflict Management Strategies, Glynn Ellis, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell, Brandon C Prins Aug 2008

How Democracies Keep The Peace: Contextual Factors That Influence Conflict Management Strategies, Glynn Ellis, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell, Brandon C Prins

Department of Political Science Publications

Some studies find that democratic states are more amenable to third party forms of conflict management, while other studies indicate that democracies are able to resolve contentious issues on their own through bilateral negotiations. Using data from the Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) Project, the authors investigate peaceful and militarized conflict management strategies that democratic states employ to resolve contentious issues. Theoretically, the authors focus on how militarized conflict history, relative capabilities, and issue salience influence the tools of conflict management that democratic states employ. Empirical analyses suggest that democratic dyads employ bilateral negotiations more often to resolve contentious issues ...


Political Context And The Development Of Party Identification In Adolescence, Jennifer Wolak May 2008

Political Context And The Development Of Party Identification In Adolescence, Jennifer Wolak

Benjamin F. Shambaugh Conferences

No abstract provided.


Renewal And Persistence Of Group Identification In American Politics, Matthew Barreto, Francisco Pedraza May 2008

Renewal And Persistence Of Group Identification In American Politics, Matthew Barreto, Francisco Pedraza

Benjamin F. Shambaugh Conferences

No abstract provided.


Changes In The Components Of The Electoral Decision, Herbert Weisberg May 2008

Changes In The Components Of The Electoral Decision, Herbert Weisberg

Benjamin F. Shambaugh Conferences

No abstract provided.


Ideology And Vote Choice In The 2004 Election, William Jacoby May 2008

Ideology And Vote Choice In The 2004 Election, William Jacoby

Benjamin F. Shambaugh Conferences

No abstract provided.


American Voter To Economic Voter: Evolution Of An Idea, Michael Lewis-Beck, Mary Stegmaier May 2008

American Voter To Economic Voter: Evolution Of An Idea, Michael Lewis-Beck, Mary Stegmaier

Benjamin F. Shambaugh Conferences

No abstract provided.


What Have You Done For Me (Or Us) Lately?: Gender & Economic Voting, Cindy Kam May 2008

What Have You Done For Me (Or Us) Lately?: Gender & Economic Voting, Cindy Kam

Benjamin F. Shambaugh Conferences

No abstract provided.


The Relationship Between Turnout And Competition Levels In Russia, William M Reisinger, Bryon J Moraski Apr 2008

The Relationship Between Turnout And Competition Levels In Russia, William M Reisinger, Bryon J Moraski

Department of Political Science Publications

We examine voter turnout in the 89 administrative units comprising the Russian Federation for elections to the presidency and the State Duma (the lower house of parliament) from 1991 to 2007. Politics within these regions has come to vary substantially, and they therefore are apt cases for examining factors that drive turnout levels. The collapse of the Soviet Union introduced relatively free elections at the national level, which were gradually expanded to the subnational level with the popular election of regional executives. However, Vladimir Putin’s ascension to the presidency is now widely recognized as ushering in a new era ...


Io Mediation Of Interstate Conflicts: Moving Beyond The Global Vs. Regional Dichotomy, Holley Hansen, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell, Stephen C. Nemeth Apr 2008

Io Mediation Of Interstate Conflicts: Moving Beyond The Global Vs. Regional Dichotomy, Holley Hansen, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell, Stephen C. Nemeth

Sara McLaughlin Mitchell

Regional and global intergovernmental organizations have grown both in number and scope, yet their role and effectiveness as conflict managers is not fully understood. Previous research efforts tend to categorize organizations solely by the scope of their membership, which obscures important sources of variation in institutional design at both the regional and global levels. International organizations will be more successful conflict managers if they are highly institutionalized, if they have members with homogeneous preferences, and if they have more established democratic members. These hypotheses are evaluated with data on territorial (1816-2001), maritime (1900-2001), and river (1900-2001) claims from the Issue ...


Io Mediation Of Interstate Conflicts: Moving Beyond The Global Vs. Regional Dichotomy, Holley Hansen, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell, Stephen C. Nemeth Apr 2008

Io Mediation Of Interstate Conflicts: Moving Beyond The Global Vs. Regional Dichotomy, Holley Hansen, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell, Stephen C. Nemeth

Department of Political Science Publications

Regional and global intergovernmental organizations have grown both in number and scope, yet their role and effectiveness as conflict managers is not fully understood. Previous research efforts tend to categorize organizations solely by the scope of their membership, which obscures important sources of variation in institutional design at both the regional and global levels. International organizations will be more successful conflict managers if they are highly institutionalized, if they have members with homogeneous preferences, and if they have more established democratic members. These hypotheses are evaluated with data on territorial (1816-2001), maritime (1900-2001), and river (1900-2001) claims from the Issue ...


The Creation And Expansion Of The International Criminal Court: A Legal Explanation, Emilia Justyna Powell, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell Apr 2008

The Creation And Expansion Of The International Criminal Court: A Legal Explanation, Emilia Justyna Powell, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell

Department of Political Science Publications

International courts have proliferated in the international system in the past century, with one hundred judicial or quasi-judicial bodies currently in existence. While the supply of international courts has increased substantially, state level support for international courts varies across states, across courts, and over time. This paper focuses on the cross-sectional and temporal variation in state level support for a particular court, the International Criminal Court (ICC). The authors argue that domestic legal systems create different predispositions with respect to states’ willingness to join adjudicatory bodies and the design of their commitments to international courts. Negotiators involved in the creation ...


Reducing The Effects Of Moral Hazard: Institutional Designs Within International Alliances, Brian Lai Jan 2008

Reducing The Effects Of Moral Hazard: Institutional Designs Within International Alliances, Brian Lai

Brian Lai

What explains the level of commitment within an international military alliance? Specifically, when do alliances choose to adopt active military support for offensive uses of force versus lower levels of commitment? Drawing on the rational design of international institutions literature, this paper argues that the choice of commitment is a conscious effort to address two competing problems. The first is the potential for entrapment. Allies worry that commitments may lead other member states to act in a risky fashion, creating unnecessary conflict. The other problem is the need to demonstrate commitment in order to maximize the bargaining power of the ...


Ruling The Sea: Institutionalization And Privatization Of The Global Ocean Commons, Stephen C Nemeth, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell, Elizabeth A Nyman, Paul R Hensel Jan 2008

Ruling The Sea: Institutionalization And Privatization Of The Global Ocean Commons, Stephen C Nemeth, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell, Elizabeth A Nyman, Paul R Hensel

Department of Political Science Publications

Maritime issues have gained international prominence in recent decades, fueled by the decline in global fishing catches, the scramble for oil and mineral resources, and states’ desire to lay sovereign claims to their maritime spaces. States are willing to use militarized force to defend their maritime claims, as the UK-Iceland "Cod Wars" and militarized confrontations between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean Sea demonstrate. This paper evaluates two primary mechanisms for resolving maritime conflicts: 1) the creation of private ownership of maritime zones in the form of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), and 2) the creation of an institution, the United ...


Comparing Caucus And Registered Voter Support For The 2008 Presidential Candidates In Iowa, David Redlawsk, Daniel Bowen, Caroline Tolbert Jan 2008

Comparing Caucus And Registered Voter Support For The 2008 Presidential Candidates In Iowa, David Redlawsk, Daniel Bowen, Caroline Tolbert

Department of Political Science Publications

As the 2008 presidential nominating process got underway, Iowa's coveted status as first-in-the-nation appeared increasingly in jeopardy, as states engaged in aggressive frontloading throughout 2006 and 2007. In the past, late March primaries in large states like Florida, New York, and California were irrelevant to the electoral outcome. To avoid a repeat in 2008, Florida moved its primary to January 29 and California moved to what is now being called "super duper Tuesday" on February 5 when nearly two dozen states will hold primaries. Under pressure from extra-early voting in Florida and other front-loading states, as we write this ...