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Full-Text Articles in Political Science

Casualties, Polls, And The Iraq War, Jason Reifler, Christopher Gelpi Oct 2006

Casualties, Polls, And The Iraq War, Jason Reifler, Christopher Gelpi

Political Science Faculty Publications

In their article “Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq,” Christopher Gelpi, Peter Feaver, and Jason Reifler attempt to flush out the relationship between public opinion and the use of force as it pertains to the Iraq war.1 The authors promote the following proposition: “Our thesis is that expectations of future success are the key determinants of public casualty tolerance. That is, the U.S. public can accept that the war is not yet won and will involve continued and even mounting costs, provided that events thus far are not convincing it that eventual success is impossible ...


Elections, Violence And Democracy In Iraq, Shaheen Mozaffar Jun 2006

Elections, Violence And Democracy In Iraq, Shaheen Mozaffar

Bridgewater Review

No abstract provided.


Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity And The War In Iraq", Jason Reifler, Christopher Gelpi, Peter Feaver Jan 2006

Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity And The War In Iraq", Jason Reifler, Christopher Gelpi, Peter Feaver

Political Science Faculty Publications

In this article, we argue that the public will tolerate significant numbers of U.S. combat casualties under certain circumstances. To be sure, the public is not indifferent to the human costs of American foreign policy, but casualties have not by themselves driven public attitudes toward the Iraq war, and mounting casualties have not always produced a reduction in public support. The Iraq case suggests that under the right conditions, the public will continue to support military operations even when they come with a relatively high human cost. Our core argument is that the U.S. public’s tolerance for ...


Senturion: Predictive Political Simulation Model, Mark Abdollahian, Michael Baranick, Brian Efird, Jacek J. Kugler Jan 2006

Senturion: Predictive Political Simulation Model, Mark Abdollahian, Michael Baranick, Brian Efird, Jacek J. Kugler

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University (NDU). The Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at NDU has been testing the Senturion capability since 2002, and has begun to support the application of this new technology in DOD. In this paper, we begin by describing the methodology underlying the software, and then provide an overview of three case studies that used the software: a predictive analysis of the stabilization and reconstruction phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), the run-up to the Iraqi elections in January 2005, and the leadership transition ...