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Models and Methods

2014

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Articles 1 - 16 of 16

Full-Text Articles in Political Science

Geopolitics, Borders, And Federalism: Challenges For Post-War Iraq, Paul G. Lockhart Dec 2014

Geopolitics, Borders, And Federalism: Challenges For Post-War Iraq, Paul G. Lockhart

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

The fall of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I enabled the victorious Western powers to implement the Sykes-Picot Treaty and reshape the geopolitical structure of the Middle East. The imposition of arbitrary borders on the Middle East region, specifically the state of Iraq, would lead to significant conflicts over the course of the 20th century. In 2003, a US-led invasion would further compound the instability and sectarian conflict within Iraq by completely dismantling the state. In the years after the invasion, the United States has been directly involved unsuccessfully in trying to rebuild and stabilize the ...


Risk Regulation In China, Singapore Management University Nov 2014

Risk Regulation In China, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Local political power poses a formidable challenge to Beijing's efforts to enforce regulation...and shore up popular support for the regime


The Effect Of The Syrian Crisis On Jordanian Internal Security, Andrew E. Szparaga Oct 2014

The Effect Of The Syrian Crisis On Jordanian Internal Security, Andrew E. Szparaga

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Jordan has a refugee crisis; between 620,000 and 1.3 million Syrian refugees are seeking refuge in Jordan. This report aims to answer which aspect of Jordanian security the refugees have the biggest effect on. It also aims to answer whether the refugees based in camps, like Za’atari, or those integrated into the Jordanian communities are more threatening to internal security. Because many argue that Syrian refugees have a negative effect on the economic, environmental, military, political, and social securities of Jordan, many believe that they might pose a possible threat to the country’s internal security factors ...


Partisan Sorting In The United States, 1972-2012: New Evidence From A Dynamic Analysis, Corey Lang, Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz Sep 2014

Partisan Sorting In The United States, 1972-2012: New Evidence From A Dynamic Analysis, Corey Lang, Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz

Environmental and Natural Resource Economics Faculty Publications

Whether Americans have “sorted” into politically like-minded counties and to what extent is hotly debated by academic and journalists. This paper examines whether or not geographic sorting has occurred and why it has occurred using a novel, dynamic analysis. Our findings indicate that geographic sorting is on the rise, but that it is a very recent phenomenon. In the 1970s and 1980s, counties tended to become more competitive, but by 1996 a pattern of partisan sorting had emerged and continued through the present. Results suggest this pattern is driven by Southern re-alignment and voting behavior in partisan stronghold counties. Lastly ...


Debate On Bernard Yack’S Book Nationalism And The Moral Psychology Of Community, Jonathan Hearn, Chandran Kukathas, David Miller, Bernard Yack Jun 2014

Debate On Bernard Yack’S Book Nationalism And The Moral Psychology Of Community, Jonathan Hearn, Chandran Kukathas, David Miller, Bernard Yack

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Bernard Yack's Nationalism and the Moral Psychology of Community (2012) was the subject of the eighth in a long‐running series of debates hosted by the Association for the Study of Ethnicity and Nationalism (ASEN) and the journal Nations and Nationalism in November of 2013. These debates bring together the authors of recent important works in the study of nationalism and ethnicity with appropriate scholars to explore the questions they have provoked. On this occasion Professor Yack was joined by Professor Chandran Kukathas and Professor David Miller.


Slavery In Europe: Part 2, Testing A Predictive Model, Monti Narayan Datta, Kevin Bales May 2014

Slavery In Europe: Part 2, Testing A Predictive Model, Monti Narayan Datta, Kevin Bales

Political Science Faculty Publications

Since the passage of the Victims of Trafficking and Violence Protection Act and the United Nations Palermo Protocols of 2000, there has been an increased focus on the magnitude and complexity of modern day slavery. Yet, surprisingly, little empirical work exists. A comprehensive review of the literature by Elzbieta Gozdziak and Micah Bump in 2008 found that quantitative methodologies were noticeably scarce and that the dominant anti-trafficking discourse was not evidence based. One reason for this scarcity has been the difficulty in obtaining reliable representative data. In this paper, we utilize a novel measure of contemporary slavery in Europe that ...


Accuracy Of Combined Forecasts For The 2012 Presidential Election: The Pollyvote, Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones, Alfred G. Cuzán Apr 2014

Accuracy Of Combined Forecasts For The 2012 Presidential Election: The Pollyvote, Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones, Alfred G. Cuzán

Marketing Papers

We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as well as the forecasts from FiveThirtyEight.com. Gains in accuracy were particularly large early in the campaign, when uncertainty about the election outcome is typically high. The results confirm prior research showing that combining is one of the most effective approaches to generating accurate forecasts.


Short Duration Campaign Simulation Increases High School Students' Civic Engagement Skills And Knowledge, Taylor E. Tillotson, Judith Puncochar Apr 2014

Short Duration Campaign Simulation Increases High School Students' Civic Engagement Skills And Knowledge, Taylor E. Tillotson, Judith Puncochar

Conference Presentations

Research on campaign simulations usually involves long-term collegiate activities. Our research adapted materials from the American Association of University Women and Running Start’s “Elect Her–Campus Women Win” college workshops to create a short-term campaign simulation for use in high school social studies classrooms. Sixty-six students in three high school Advanced Placement US Government classes engaged in a two-day communications-focused elections simulation workshop. Differences in civic engagement knowledge between pre- and post-surveys reached statistical significance. Students’ qualitative responses revealed gains in understanding of the role of student government in allocating money, low-cost advertising, and use of “surrogates” to disseminate ...


A Land That Has Yet To Heal: The Burmese Civil War (1948 – Present), Alexander G. Hernandez Feb 2014

A Land That Has Yet To Heal: The Burmese Civil War (1948 – Present), Alexander G. Hernandez

Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy - Student Research

Since its independence from Great Britain in 1948, the state of Burma has been at war with itself. Ethnic and religious tension fuel the conflict and has led to territorial disputes while no resolution to this strife is expected under a fragile and corrupt central government. Additionally, proxy wars have delayed any peaceful negotiations. The combinations of failing social welfare programs and prolonged peace talks have led many Burmese people join the military as soldiers in either the Burmese military or any one of the numerous ethnic paramilitary groups in the country. Human rights violations are common in Burma, including ...


Elect Her Campaign College Women To Win Program, Judith Puncochar Jan 2014

Elect Her Campaign College Women To Win Program, Judith Puncochar

Grants

ELECT HER Campaign College Women to Win Program encourages and trains young women to run for student government on college campuses and become active in civic engagement. Northern Michigan University was one of 10 universities selected for the first ELECT HER programs. Elect Her has been an on-going annual March event at NMU since 2010. Four of the last five ASNMU presidents have received Elect Her training.


How Civil Society Represents Women: Feminists, Catholics, And Mobilization Strategies In Africa, Alice Kang Jan 2014

How Civil Society Represents Women: Feminists, Catholics, And Mobilization Strategies In Africa, Alice Kang

Faculty Publications: Political Science

In recent years, civil society has risen to speak on behalf of underrepresented groups in Africa. In particular, civil society has advocated for the representation of women’s interests (Tripp et al. 2008). Yet, relatively little is known about the full range of actors who seek the representation of women’s interests, mobilize around women’s issues, and articulate specific preferences.1 Some of these actors include not only feminists, but also religious activists who may clash over women’s issues. This gap in knowledge, moreover, extends to non-democratic countries. Who in civil society seeks to influence the representation of ...


Litigation Reform: An Institutional Approach, Stephen B. Burbank, Sean Farhang Jan 2014

Litigation Reform: An Institutional Approach, Stephen B. Burbank, Sean Farhang

Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law

The program of regulation through private litigation that Democratic Congresses purposefully created starting in the late 1960s soon met opposition emanating primarily from the Republican party. In the long campaign for retrenchment that began in the Reagan administration, consequential reform proved difficult and ultimately failed in Congress. Litigation reformers turned to the courts and, in marked contrast to their legislative failure, were well-rewarded, achieving growing rates of voting support from an increasingly conservative Supreme Court on issues curtailing private enforcement under individual statutes. We also demonstrate that the judiciary’s control of procedure has been central to the campaign to ...


A Discernible Impact? The Influence Of Public Opinion On Eu Policymaking During The Sovereign Debt Crisis, Jennifer R. Boyle, Chris Hasselmann Jan 2014

A Discernible Impact? The Influence Of Public Opinion On Eu Policymaking During The Sovereign Debt Crisis, Jennifer R. Boyle, Chris Hasselmann

Political Science: Faculty Publications and Other Works

The European sovereign debt crisis provides an excellent opportunity for examining the extent to which public preferences constrain member state preferences for EU policy solutions. We examine the influence of public opinion on austerity, spending, and regulation on member state preferences on 4 major EU solutions to the crisis from 20I0-2011: the initial Greek financial rescue, the creation of the European Stability Mechanism, the reform of the Stability and Growth pact, and enhanced EU financial regulation. Our analysis reveals that prior to elections and/or when there is a degree of fragmentation in the governing party or coalition public opinion ...


Public Attitudes And Support For The Eu In The Wake Of The Financial Crisis, Jennifer R. Wozniak, Chris Hasselmann Jan 2014

Public Attitudes And Support For The Eu In The Wake Of The Financial Crisis, Jennifer R. Wozniak, Chris Hasselmann

Political Science: Faculty Publications and Other Works

The economic and financial crisis has dominated the political agenda of both the European Union and its respective governments for the past several years. The economic effects, from rising unemployment to negligible growth rates, have been widely documented and explored. The political consequences likewise have been examined in terms of the impact on various national elections, especially in Greece and most recently in Germany. One area in need of attention, however, is the extent to which existing theories and models of support for integration are able to capture the public's changing perception of the EU. Drawing on a series ...


Democracy As The Rule Of A Small Many, Jamie Terence Kelly Jan 2014

Democracy As The Rule Of A Small Many, Jamie Terence Kelly

Faculty Research and Reports

No abstract provided.


Using Big Data And Quantitative Methods To Estimate And Fight Modern Day Slavery, Monti Narayan Datta Jan 2014

Using Big Data And Quantitative Methods To Estimate And Fight Modern Day Slavery, Monti Narayan Datta

Political Science Faculty Publications

Given the hidden, criminal nature of contemporary slavery, empirically estimating the proportion of the population enslaved at the national and global level is a challenge. At the same time, little is understood about what happens to the lives of the survivors of slavery once they are free. I discuss some data collection methods from two nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) I have worked with that shed light on these issues. The first NGO, the Walk Free Foundation, estimates that there are about 30 million enslaved in the world today. The second NGO, Free the Slaves, employs a longitudinal analysis to chronicle the ...