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Full-Text Articles in Political Science

Post-Conflict Planning And Reconstruction: Lessons From The American Experience In Korea, Marcus Noland Jun 2010

Post-Conflict Planning And Reconstruction: Lessons From The American Experience In Korea, Marcus Noland

Marcus Noland

The American experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq have motivated a re-examination of earlier experiences with post-conflict planning and reconstruction. This paper reviews the US experience in Korea following the Second World War and the Korean War; addresses the political economy of establishing institutions of governance in post-conflict situations; considers the issue of “portability”: the extent to which the South Korean experience may reflect unique and irreproducible conditions; and then applies these ideas by comparing the South Korean experience to the contemporary case of Afghanistan. Some conclusions and policy recommendations are contained in the final section.


Political Attitudes Under Repression: Evidence From North Korean Refugees, Marcus Noland Mar 2010

Political Attitudes Under Repression: Evidence From North Korean Refugees, Marcus Noland

Marcus Noland

What do citizens of highly repressive regimes think about their governments? How do they respond to high levels of repression? This paper addresses these questions by examining the political attitudes of North Korean refugees. Unsurprisingly the evaluations of regime performance are negative, and there is some evidence that they are becoming more so, even among the core political class and government or party workers. While the sample marginally overrepresents groups with the most negative evaluation of the regime, multivariate analysis is used to generate projections of the views of the wider population; this exercise indicates that that the null hypothesis ...


Economic Crime And Punishment In North Korea, Marcus Noland Mar 2010

Economic Crime And Punishment In North Korea, Marcus Noland

Marcus Noland

The penal system has played a central role in the North Korean government’s response to the country’s profound economic and social changes. As the informal market economy has expanded, so have the scope of economic crimes. Two refugee surveys—one conducted in China, one in South Korea—document that the regime disproportionately targets politically suspect groups, particularly those involved in market-oriented economic activities. Levels of violence and deprivation do not appear to differ substantially between the infamous political prison camps, penitentiaries for felons, and labor camps used to incarcerate individuals for a growing number of economic crimes. Such ...


The Winter Of Their Discontent: Pyongyang Attacks The Market, Marcus Noland Jan 2010

The Winter Of Their Discontent: Pyongyang Attacks The Market, Marcus Noland

Marcus Noland

This paper examines North Korea’s recent confiscatory currency conversion and the subsequent prohibition on the use of foreign currency. The regime has made no attempt to veil its motivations: strengthening the socialist economy by directly attacking the market and the independence from state control that it represents. These policies, coming at an inopportune time when the country is facing economic stagnation, spiraling prices, and a resurgence of food shortages will surely reduce economic welfare. The open question is whether they have sown such discord that these moves will ultimately destabilize the country politically as well.


Repression And Punishment In North Korea: Survey Evidence Of Prison Camp Experiences, Marcus Noland Oct 2009

Repression And Punishment In North Korea: Survey Evidence Of Prison Camp Experiences, Marcus Noland

Marcus Noland

The penal system has played a central role in the North Korean government's response to the country's profound economic and social changes. Two refugee surveys--one conducted in China, one in South Korea--document its changing role. The regime disproportionately targets politically suspect groups, particularly those involved in market-oriented economic activities. Levels of violence and deprivation do not appear to differ substantially between the infamous political prison camps, penitentiaries for felons, and labor camps used to incarcerate individuals for misdemeanors, including economic crimes. Substantial numbers of those incarcerated report experiencing deprivation with respect to food as well as public executions ...


Reform From Below: Behavioral And Institutional Change In North Korea, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard Aug 2009

Reform From Below: Behavioral And Institutional Change In North Korea, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard

Marcus Noland

The state is often conceptualized as playing an enabling role in a country’s economic development—providing public goods, such as the legal protection of property rights, while the political economy of reform is conceived in terms of bargaining over policy among elites or special interest groups. We document a case that turns this perspective on its head: efficiency-enhancing institutional and behavioral changes arising not out of a conscious, top-down program of reform, but rather as unintended (and in some respects, unwanted) by-products of state failure. Responses from a survey of North Korean refugees demonstrate that the North Korean economy ...


Exit Polls: Refugee Assessments Of North Korea's Transition, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Yoonok Chang Mar 2009

Exit Polls: Refugee Assessments Of North Korea's Transition, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Yoonok Chang

Marcus Noland

Results from a survey of more than 1300 North Korean refugees in China provide insight into changing economic conditions in North Korea. There is modest evidence of slightly more positive assessments among those who exited the country following the initiation of reforms in 2002. Education breeds skepticism; higher levels of education were associated with more negative perceptions of economic conditions and reform efforts. Other demographic markers such as gender or provincial origin are not robustly correlated with attitudes. Instead, personal experiences appear to be central: a significant number of the respondents were unaware of the humanitarian aid program and the ...


North Korea In 2008: Twilight Of The God?, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard Jan 2009

North Korea In 2008: Twilight Of The God?, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard

Marcus Noland

Following a decade-long experiment with engagement, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, inaugurated in February 2008, brought a more skeptical posture toward the North. The spring saw a recurrence of widespread food shortages in North Korea. Pyongyang initially moved to implement the roadmap for denuclearization, but wrangling over the timing of the country’s removal from the list of state sponsors of terrorism and verification stalled negotiations until a partial breakthrough in October. These events were overshadowed in September by the first reports that Kim Jong-il had suffered a stroke. These reports cast uncertainty over all aspects of politics and policy ...


Famine In North Korea Redux?, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard Jan 2009

Famine In North Korea Redux?, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard

Marcus Noland

In the 1990s, 600,000 to 1 million North Koreans, or about 3–5 percent of the pre-crisis population perished in one of the worst famines of the 20th century. North Korea is once again poised on the brink of famine. Although the renewed provision of aid is likely to avert a disaster on the scale of the 1990s, hunger-related deaths are already occurring and a dynamic has been set in motion that will carry the crisis into the future. North Korea is a complex humanitarian emergency characterized by highly imperfect information. This paper triangulates quantity and price evidence with ...


Migration Experiences Of North Korean Refugees: Survey Evidence From China, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Yoonok Chang Jan 2009

Migration Experiences Of North Korean Refugees: Survey Evidence From China, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Yoonok Chang

Marcus Noland

Chronic food shortages, political repression, and poverty have driven tens of thousands of North Koreans into China. This paper reports results from a large-scale survey of this population. The survey provides insight not only into the material circumstances of the refugees but also into their psychological state and aspirations. One key finding is that many North Korean refugees suffer severe psychological stress akin to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This distress is caused in part by experiences in China. However, we demonstrate that it is also a result of the long shadow cast by the North Korean famine and abuses suffered ...


Korean Institutional Reform In Comparative Perspective, Marcus Noland, Erik Weeks Jan 2009

Korean Institutional Reform In Comparative Perspective, Marcus Noland, Erik Weeks

Marcus Noland

In recent years, academic economists have come to appreciate the centrality of public institutions in contributing to economic performance. Yet Korea, arguably the premier success story of the last half-century, has sometimes been described as a First World economy with Third World institutions. Although Korea modestly underachieves on most of the 52 institutional indicators examined in this paper, it is not an outlier, and on most indicators it is converging on global norms from below. The patterns on specific indicators suggest that global institutions play some role as an external policy anchor. The reason is straightforward: The existence of international ...


The (Non-) Impact Of Un Sanctions On North Korea, Marcus Noland Jan 2009

The (Non-) Impact Of Un Sanctions On North Korea, Marcus Noland

Marcus Noland

This study finds that North Korea’s nuclear test and the imposition of UN Security Council sanctions have had no perceptible effect on North Korea’s trade with its two largest partners, China and South Korea. Before North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test, it was widely believed that such an event would have cataclysmic diplomatic ramifications. However, beginning with visual inspection of data and ending with time-series models, no evidence is found to support the notion that these events have had any effect on North Korea’s trade with its two principal partners. In retrospect, North Korea may have ...


Markets And Famine In North Korea, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Erik Weeks Aug 2008

Markets And Famine In North Korea, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Erik Weeks

Marcus Noland

In the 1990s, as many as a million North Koreans died in one of the worst famines of the 20th century. Unlike the dramatic recent natural disasters in Burma and China, North Korea’s current food crisis, a product of self-destructive policies, bad weather, and global food price increases, has metastasized largely beyond public view, abetted by Pyongyang’s penchant for secrecy. Permanent resolution of North Korea’s chronic food problems requires revitalization of its industrial economy. Genuine opening would enable the country to earn foreign exchange and import bulk grain on a commercially sustainable basis, just as South Korea ...


North Korea On The Precipice Of Famine, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Erik Weeks May 2008

North Korea On The Precipice Of Famine, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Erik Weeks

Marcus Noland

North Korea is once again headed toward widespread food shortages, hunger, and famine. As of this writing, the prospect of hunger-related deaths occurring in the next several months is approaching certainty. The expectation is based on four pieces of evidence, which we outline in the policy brief: - Food balances are as precarious as at any time since the great famine. - Access to aid or commercial import is limited by diplomatic tensions and the word food crisis. - Domestic food prices show the kind of extreme price inflation that is typical of pre-famine or famine settings. - The domestic policy response to the ...


A Security And Peace Mechanism For Northeast Asia: The Economic Dimension, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard Apr 2008

A Security And Peace Mechanism For Northeast Asia: The Economic Dimension, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard

Marcus Noland

In this brief, we explore the economic dimension of multilateral security cooperation in Northeast Asia. We begin with a discussion of the purported security benefits of economic egnagement with North Korea. We then outline recent economic developments in North Korea, which provide a crucial background to any discussion of the issue. We raise some cautionary questions about the scope for multilateral economic cooperation in Northeast Asia before outlining how economic cooperation can complement long-run security and economic objectives on the peninsula, including economic reform in North Korea.


South Africa And The Arab World: Facing Common Challenges, Marcus Noland, Howard Pack Mar 2008

South Africa And The Arab World: Facing Common Challenges, Marcus Noland, Howard Pack

Marcus Noland

Today the Arab countries of the Middle East face a challenge familiar to all South Africans: to create jobs for the large cohort of young people reaching working age. Over the next decade or so, the region may experience population growth of 150 million people—the equivalent of adding two Egypts (table 1). In demographic terms, the task is similar to that facing South Africa—only larger. Rising labor force participation by women only increases the pressure. The task is immense, and the stakes are high.


North Korea In 2007, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard Feb 2008

North Korea In 2007, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard

Marcus Noland

The year 2007 witnessed a gradual rapprochement between North Korea and the world, reflecting changes both in the country's external environment and domestic political economy. Key markers were the resumption of the Six-Party Talks and the second North-South summit. Whether these developments will endure depends largely on North Korean intentions.


Arab Economies At A Tipping Point, Marcus Noland, Howard Pack Jan 2008

Arab Economies At A Tipping Point, Marcus Noland, Howard Pack

Marcus Noland

The Arab world is experiencing an economic boom of historic proportions. The tiny Persian Gulf emirate of Dubai is emblematic. Boasting the world's only seven-star hotel, its massive land reclamation project, allegedly the only man-made structure visible from the moon, is whimsically creating parcels shaped like continents and palm trees. With oil hovering above $90 a barrel and the Egyptian stock market up 1,800 percent in the last five years, one might ask what problems World Bank President Robert Zoellick perceives that would justify making the economic revitalization of the Arab world one of the cornerstones of his ...


The East Asian Industrial Policy Experience: Implications For The Middle East, Marcus Noland, Howard Pack Jan 2008

The East Asian Industrial Policy Experience: Implications For The Middle East, Marcus Noland, Howard Pack

Marcus Noland

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are regarded as primary examples of countries that have derived great benefits from increasing integration with the international economy, without surrendering national autonomy in the economic or cultural spheres, by pursuing decidedly nonneutral policies with respect to the promotion of specific sectors and activities. This working paper addresses a series of questions in an attempt to assess the relevance of their experiences for the contemporary Middle East: Was industrial policy a major source of growth in these three economies? Can these outcomes be duplicated in the Middle East today, or do special circumstances or changes ...


Presentation On The Arab Economies In A Changing World, Marcus Noland, Howard Pack Nov 2007

Presentation On The Arab Economies In A Changing World, Marcus Noland, Howard Pack

Marcus Noland

No abstract provided.


The Economic Implications Of A North Korean Nuclear Test, Marcus Noland Jul 2006

The Economic Implications Of A North Korean Nuclear Test, Marcus Noland

Marcus Noland

This essay analyzes the economic implications that a North Korean nuclear test would have on Northeast Asia. Main Argument: A North Korean nuclear test would likely have a negative, though noncatastrophic, economic impact on the region: -South Korea would likely suffer from capital flight, consequent declines in asset prices and investment, and possibly a minor budgetary loss associated with existing investment guarantees to companies operating in North Korea. - Japan’s economy would also suffer from capital flight, asset price declines, and a reduction in investment. The most radical consequence, however, would be political: a nuclear test might strengthen Japanese attitudes ...


Islam, Globalization, And Economic Performance In The Middle East, Marcus Noland, Howard Pack Jun 2004

Islam, Globalization, And Economic Performance In The Middle East, Marcus Noland, Howard Pack

Marcus Noland

The Middle East is a demographic time bomb. According to the United Nations De¬velopment Program’s (UNDP) Arab Human Development Report 2002, the population of the Arab region is expected to increase by around 25 percent between 2000 and 2010 and by 50 to 60 percent by 2020—or by perhaps 150 million people, a fig¬ure equivalent to more than two Egypts. Even under the UNDP’s more conserva¬tive scenario, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates will be the only Arab countries in 2020 with median ages above 30. These figures suggest that the region ...


The Strategic Importance Of U.S.-South Korea Economic Relations, Marcus Noland, Taeho Bark Oct 2003

The Strategic Importance Of U.S.-South Korea Economic Relations, Marcus Noland, Taeho Bark

Marcus Noland

Due to the still critical nature of the United States-Republic of Korea (U.S.-ROK) alliance, diplomatic and economic relations between the two nations assume larger than usual importance. This fourth NBR Special Report examines whether economic ties could diffuse conflict in other aspects of the bilateral relationship, or whether economic irritants might be a source of further bilateral tensions. In the Foreword, Stephen W. Bosworth, former Ambassador to the Republic of Korea and current Dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University, places the importance of United States-Republic of Korea relations in the broader context of ongoing changes in ...


The Two Koreas: Prospects For Economic Cooperation And Integration, Marcus Noland Dec 2000

The Two Koreas: Prospects For Economic Cooperation And Integration, Marcus Noland

Marcus Noland

After nearly a half century of strident adherence to the principles of socialism and self-reliance, North Korea may be on the verge of opening itself to outside aid and advice. Motivators include a decade of economic trouble punctuated by declining output and famine as well as underdeveloped infrastructures and reduction in foreign trade and material support. The limits of national selfsufficiency may finally have become admissible in North Korea, as evidenced by recent diplomatic negotiations and cooperative commercial projects with capitalist nations. South Korea, meanwhile, is struggling to regain ground lost in the financial crisis and to correct faults in ...


The Philippines In The Asian Financial Crisis: How The Sick Man Avoided Pneumonia, Marcus Noland May 2000

The Philippines In The Asian Financial Crisis: How The Sick Man Avoided Pneumonia, Marcus Noland

Marcus Noland

No abstract provided.


Opening Attempt: North Korea And The Rajin-Sonbong Free Trade And Economic Zone, Marcus Noland Jan 1997

Opening Attempt: North Korea And The Rajin-Sonbong Free Trade And Economic Zone, Marcus Noland

Marcus Noland

In response to its economic crisis, North Korea has intensified efforts to attract investment to its Rajin-Sonbong Free Economic and Trade Zone. While this effort to promote the zone represents an important start, the zone clearly has a long way to go before it will be able to attract the type of investment envisioned by its supporters. Lack of infrastructure appears to be a severe impediment to the development of the zone. If the infrastructural hurdle is to be surmounted, it will likely to be due to Chinese interest in developing the zone for transshipment trade associated with the economic ...