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Richard M. Skinner

Congressional elections

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"The Rebirth Of Party: The 1994 Congressional Elections In Historical Perspective", Richard M. Skinner Dec 1996

"The Rebirth Of Party: The 1994 Congressional Elections In Historical Perspective", Richard M. Skinner

Richard M. Skinner

The Republican surge of 1994 poses serious problems for most theories of congressional elections, which either discount the likelihood of such a swing, or attribute one to a readily apparent short-term cause. This essay includes a district-level analysis that finds a strong link between the 1988-92 presidential vote and the 1994 House vote. A discussion of theories of realignment leads to a conclusion that while the U.S. political system is changing, a new Republican era may not yet be upon us.