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Full-Text Articles in Political Science

Senturion: Predictive Political Simulation Model, Mark Abdollahian, Michael Baranick, Brian Efird, Jacek J. Kugler Jan 2006

Senturion: Predictive Political Simulation Model, Mark Abdollahian, Michael Baranick, Brian Efird, Jacek J. Kugler

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University (NDU). The Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at NDU has been testing the Senturion capability since 2002, and has begun to support the application of this new technology in DOD. In this paper, we begin by describing the methodology underlying the software, and then provide an overview of three case studies that used the software: a predictive analysis of the stabilization and reconstruction phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), the run-up to the Iraqi elections in January 2005, and the leadership transition ...


Extensions Of Power Transition: Applications To Political Economy, Jacek J. Kugler Jan 1999

Extensions Of Power Transition: Applications To Political Economy, Jacek J. Kugler

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

This is a paper about theory in political economy terms and political economy in theoretical terms. It unifies power transition theory and applies it to the central questions that now confront political economists. Will trade wars emerge as the security challenge declines? What are the economic effects of integration, trade and growth? How will economic patterns influence international power relationships? This paper offers a preliminary bridge whereon practitioners and theorist may meet to assess the challenges that lie at the intersection between politics and economics. The economic collapse and political dissolution of the Soviet Union left policymakers and scholars searching ...


Deterrence And The Arms Race: The Impotence Of Power, Jacek J. Kugler, Abramo Fimo Kenneth Organski, Daniel J. Fox Jan 1980

Deterrence And The Arms Race: The Impotence Of Power, Jacek J. Kugler, Abramo Fimo Kenneth Organski, Daniel J. Fox

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

So much has been done in the name of nuclear deterrence, so much destructive power built by ourselves and the Russians that it may seem rather late in the day, not to say absurd, to wonder whether or not mutual deterrence really occurs and ask what evidence can be adduced to prove it. Yet such a question may be essential to an understanding of international nuclear politics. The problems thus posed are difficult, however, and cannot be solved by direct means. What one needs to do is to establish empirically whether the conditions necessary for deterrence to be taking place ...