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International Relations

Marcus Noland

Famine

Publication Year

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Full-Text Articles in Political Science

Exit Polls: Refugee Assessments Of North Korea's Transition, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Yoonok Chang Mar 2009

Exit Polls: Refugee Assessments Of North Korea's Transition, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Yoonok Chang

Marcus Noland

Results from a survey of more than 1300 North Korean refugees in China provide insight into changing economic conditions in North Korea. There is modest evidence of slightly more positive assessments among those who exited the country following the initiation of reforms in 2002. Education breeds skepticism; higher levels of education were associated with more negative perceptions of economic conditions and reform efforts. Other demographic markers such as gender or provincial origin are not robustly correlated with attitudes. Instead, personal experiences appear to be central: a significant number of the respondents were unaware of the humanitarian aid program and the ...


North Korea In 2008: Twilight Of The God?, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard Jan 2009

North Korea In 2008: Twilight Of The God?, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard

Marcus Noland

Following a decade-long experiment with engagement, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, inaugurated in February 2008, brought a more skeptical posture toward the North. The spring saw a recurrence of widespread food shortages in North Korea. Pyongyang initially moved to implement the roadmap for denuclearization, but wrangling over the timing of the country’s removal from the list of state sponsors of terrorism and verification stalled negotiations until a partial breakthrough in October. These events were overshadowed in September by the first reports that Kim Jong-il had suffered a stroke. These reports cast uncertainty over all aspects of politics and policy ...


Famine In North Korea Redux?, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard Jan 2009

Famine In North Korea Redux?, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard

Marcus Noland

In the 1990s, 600,000 to 1 million North Koreans, or about 3–5 percent of the pre-crisis population perished in one of the worst famines of the 20th century. North Korea is once again poised on the brink of famine. Although the renewed provision of aid is likely to avert a disaster on the scale of the 1990s, hunger-related deaths are already occurring and a dynamic has been set in motion that will carry the crisis into the future. North Korea is a complex humanitarian emergency characterized by highly imperfect information. This paper triangulates quantity and price evidence with ...


Markets And Famine In North Korea, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Erik Weeks Aug 2008

Markets And Famine In North Korea, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Erik Weeks

Marcus Noland

In the 1990s, as many as a million North Koreans died in one of the worst famines of the 20th century. Unlike the dramatic recent natural disasters in Burma and China, North Korea’s current food crisis, a product of self-destructive policies, bad weather, and global food price increases, has metastasized largely beyond public view, abetted by Pyongyang’s penchant for secrecy. Permanent resolution of North Korea’s chronic food problems requires revitalization of its industrial economy. Genuine opening would enable the country to earn foreign exchange and import bulk grain on a commercially sustainable basis, just as South Korea ...


North Korea On The Precipice Of Famine, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Erik Weeks May 2008

North Korea On The Precipice Of Famine, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Erik Weeks

Marcus Noland

North Korea is once again headed toward widespread food shortages, hunger, and famine. As of this writing, the prospect of hunger-related deaths occurring in the next several months is approaching certainty. The expectation is based on four pieces of evidence, which we outline in the policy brief: - Food balances are as precarious as at any time since the great famine. - Access to aid or commercial import is limited by diplomatic tensions and the word food crisis. - Domestic food prices show the kind of extreme price inflation that is typical of pre-famine or famine settings. - The domestic policy response to the ...


North Korea In 2007, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard Feb 2008

North Korea In 2007, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard

Marcus Noland

The year 2007 witnessed a gradual rapprochement between North Korea and the world, reflecting changes both in the country's external environment and domestic political economy. Key markers were the resumption of the Six-Party Talks and the second North-South summit. Whether these developments will endure depends largely on North Korean intentions.