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Full-Text Articles in Other Economics

Fiscal Decentralization And Governance, John Thornton Dec 2011

Fiscal Decentralization And Governance, John Thornton

John Thornton

The literature on the economics of fiscal decentralization stresses the potential for both positive and negative effects on governance in a country. Using a data set comprising sixty-four developed and developing economies and several different measures of fiscal decentralization, the authors find that countries in which a larger share of fiscal revenues and expenditures are located at the level of subnational governments appear to be less corrupt. The authors also find that the beneficial impact of fiscal decentralization on corruption is mitigated in the presence of mechanisms enforcing vertical administrative decentralization. The results indicate that fiscal decentraliza- tion appears to ...


The Intertemporal Relation Between Government Revenue And Expenditure In The United Kingdom, 1750 To 2004, John Thornton, Lusine Lusinyan Dec 2010

The Intertemporal Relation Between Government Revenue And Expenditure In The United Kingdom, 1750 To 2004, John Thornton, Lusine Lusinyan

John Thornton

We examine the intertemporal relation between government revenue and expenditure in the UK during 1750 to 2004. We pay particular attention to long run trends by applying a battery of unit root and cointegration techniques to the data, and we use a modified Granger causality test on data spans organized around structural breaks in the series. The results suggest that, allowing for structural breaks, UK real revenue and spending are I(1) series and cointegrated and that Granger causality runs from government spending to revenue. As such, the ‘spend-tax’ hypothesis appears to best characterize the long run intertemporal relation between ...


Fiscal Decentralization And Fiscal Consolidations In Emerging Market Economies, John Thornton Dec 2009

Fiscal Decentralization And Fiscal Consolidations In Emerging Market Economies, John Thornton

John Thornton

Results using event study analysis based on a data panel of expenditure and revenue developments in emerging market economies during 1972–2001 indicate that subnational governments supported fiscal consolidation efforts by cutting their capital expenditure and increasing their revenues.


Government Size And The Stability Of Output: Evidence From Emerging Market Economies, John Thornton Dec 2009

Government Size And The Stability Of Output: Evidence From Emerging Market Economies, John Thornton

John Thornton

Fata ́ s and Mihov (2001a, b) reported a negative and statistically significant relation between government size and output variability in a cross-section of 20 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and concluded that large governments stabilize output. This conclusion does not appear to be valid for Emerging Market Economies (EMEs). Results from cross-section and combined cross-section and time series regressions for a sample of 21 EMEs for the period 1970 to 2001 indicate that the relation between government size and output volatility is statistically significant and positive.


Who Chooses To Adopt Fiscal Responsibility Laws? Evidence From Emerging Market Economies, John Thornton Dec 2009

Who Chooses To Adopt Fiscal Responsibility Laws? Evidence From Emerging Market Economies, John Thornton

John Thornton

In recent years, at least 10 emerging market economies have sought to anchor their fiscal frameworks in fiscal responsibility laws. Key factors in the decision appear to include a prior improvement in fiscal discipline, particularly in the context of a federal fiscal system, substantial ethnic fractionalization and vulnerability to adverse shocks, such as real exchange rate volatility and inflation.


Fiscal Sustainability In A Panel Of Asian Countries, John Thornton Dec 2009

Fiscal Sustainability In A Panel Of Asian Countries, John Thornton

John Thornton

Panel cointegration techniques indicate that government revenue (REV) and expenditure (EXP) in a panel of five Asian economies for the period 1974 to 2001 were nonstationary and cointegrated series. However, the cointegration coefficient was significantly less than unity, indicating ‘weak’ fiscal sustainability and the likelihood that policy measures would be needed to put the public finances on a more sustainable basis


Do Fiscal Responsibility Laws Matter? Evidence From Emerging Markets Suggests Not, John Thornton May 2009

Do Fiscal Responsibility Laws Matter? Evidence From Emerging Markets Suggests Not, John Thornton

John Thornton

This paper asks whether the adoption of fiscal responsibility laws (FRLs) has improved fiscal performance in nine emerging market economies, as measured by developments in their key fiscal balances. Examining these economies alone, their fiscal performance improved on average between the period before FLRs were adopted and the period after they were adopted. However, emerging market economies that did not adopt FLRs also experienced improvements in their fiscal performance around the same time. The finding suggests that the better fiscal performance in the nine emerging market economies resulted from something other than the adoption of FLRs.


The Sustainability Of South African Fiscal Policy: An Historical Perspective, John Thornton, Lusine Lusinyan Feb 2009

The Sustainability Of South African Fiscal Policy: An Historical Perspective, John Thornton, Lusine Lusinyan

John Thornton

This article examines the issue of long-term fiscal sustainability in South Africa by applying a battery of recently developed unit root and cointegration tests to real revenue and spending data the period 1895 to 2005. The results provide evidence that, allowing for structural breaks, South African revenue and spending during this period were I(1) series and cointegrated, with the estimated long-run equilibrium relation supporting the presence of a weak deficit sustainability condition.


Natural Resource Endowments And The Domestic Revenue Effort, John Thornton, Fabian Bornhorst, Sanjeev Gupta Dec 2008

Natural Resource Endowments And The Domestic Revenue Effort, John Thornton, Fabian Bornhorst, Sanjeev Gupta

John Thornton

We examine whether there is evidence of an offset between government revenues from hydrocarbon (oil and gas) related activities and revenues from other domestic sources in a panel of 30 hydrocarbon producing countries. Our main finding is that there is an offset of about 20%, which is robust to the inclusion of control variables, the exclusion of outliers, and alternate estimation methodologies. While the impact of the offset on long-term development prospects is not clear, there is a risk of significant adjustment costs in moving to a higher level of domestic taxation once natural resources are depleted.


The Exchange Rate And Fiscal Consolidation Episodes In Emerging Market Economies, John Thornton, Amine Mati Jun 2008

The Exchange Rate And Fiscal Consolidation Episodes In Emerging Market Economies, John Thornton, Amine Mati

John Thornton

An analysis of fiscal consolidations in emerging market economies during 1970–2004 suggests that exchange rate depreciation raises the probability of a fiscal consolidation being successful, including when controlling for debt, growth, the composition of the consolidation, and degree of democracy.


Fiscal Institutions And The Relation Between Central And Sub-National Government Fiscal Balances, John Thornton Feb 2008

Fiscal Institutions And The Relation Between Central And Sub-National Government Fiscal Balances, John Thornton

John Thornton

Skeptics of fiscal decentralization argue that it can complicate fiscal stabilization policies at the level of the central government because of uncoordinated fiscal actions by the national and sub-national tiers of government. However, panel data estimates for OECD economies suggest that this danger has been overstated in that changes in the fiscal balances of central and sub-national governments are highly positively correlated. This result partly reflects the success of institutional arrangements that govern intergovernmental fiscal relations and appears unrelated to the extent of fiscal decentralization.


Explaining Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Policy In African Countries, John Thornton Dec 2007

Explaining Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Policy In African Countries, John Thornton

John Thornton

Simple time series regressions for 37 low-income African countries during 1960–2004 suggest that government consumption is highly pro-cyclical,with consumption responding more than proportionately to fluctuations in output in many cases. The results from a cross-country specification suggest that government consumption is more procyclical in those African countries that are more reliant on foreign aid inflows and that are less corrupt, and that it is less procyclical in countries with unequal income distribution and that are more democratic. These results contrast with those from recent research using data sets that comprise a more diverse groups of countries in terms ...


Further Evidence On Revenue Decentralization And Inflation, John Thornton Mar 2007

Further Evidence On Revenue Decentralization And Inflation, John Thornton

John Thornton

Results from a panel regression study of 19 OECD member countries suggest that when the measure of revenue decentralization is limited to the revenues over which sub-national governments have full autonomy, its impact on inflation is not statistically significant.


Fiscal Decentralization And Economic Growth Reconsidered, John Thornton Dec 2006

Fiscal Decentralization And Economic Growth Reconsidered, John Thornton

John Thornton

Recent studies examining the relation between fiscal decentralization and economic growth have failed to take account of the extent of the independent taxing powers available to sub-national governments and thus have substantially overstated the degree of effective decentralization. Results from a cross section study of 19 OECD member countries suggest that when the measure of fiscal decentralization is limited to the revenues over which sub-national governments have full autonomy, its impact on economic growth is not statistically significant.