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Political Economy

Colby College

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Keeping Nuclear Programs From Becoming Nuclear Weapons: A Game Theoretic And Econometric Analysis, Benjamin Guy Ogden Jan 2011

Keeping Nuclear Programs From Becoming Nuclear Weapons: A Game Theoretic And Econometric Analysis, Benjamin Guy Ogden

Honors Theses

There are currently only nine countries which possess nuclear weapons, but twenty-four countries have pursued the requisite technology. The question remains as to why nations ceased their programs, and whether the policies of the international community had anything to do with that decision. This paper uses both a game theoretic and a probit model with limited assumptions to attempt to uncover: a) what are the determinants of a country shuttering their nuclear weapon program, b) when "sticks and carrots" can be credible (subgame perfect), and c) how large of a role they play in the potential nuclear country's decision-making ...