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A Piece Of The Puzzle: Can Behavioral Insights Help Understand Currency Returns?, Samuel D. Russell Apr 2014

A Piece Of The Puzzle: Can Behavioral Insights Help Understand Currency Returns?, Samuel D. Russell

Senior Theses and Projects

This paper finds further evidence using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression to support claims against the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) ex post, referred to as the Forward Discount Anomaly (Fama, 1984). This anomaly suggests predictable profits simply from investing in a country with a higher interest rate. Potential explanations could be attributed to risk or deviations from the rational expectations hypothesis. UIP ex ante is tested using survey data. These results indicate a time-­‐ varying risk premium. Further it is found that this premium is related to the gap between the exchange rate and Purchasing-­‐Power-­‐Parity value. Additionally it ...


An Index Of Macroeconomic Performance, Leo L. Liyeung Apr 2013

An Index Of Macroeconomic Performance, Leo L. Liyeung

Senior Theses and Projects

There exists an abundance of economic indicators and ways to interpret macroeconomic data. While the rates of unemployment, inflation, GDP growth, etc all give important insights into the performance of an economy, all these indicators are, at best, incomplete ones that fail to look at the bigger picture of the economy as a whole.

Several macroeconomists have looked into the development of an Index of Macroeconomic Performance (IMP) that provides a comprehensive account of economic performance, the formulation of which allows for straightforward comparisons of macroeconomic performance internationally and intertemporally. Conventional indicators like unemployment, inflation, and GDP growth are taken ...