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2019

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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Credit, Sectoral Misallocation And Productivity Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis, Carlos Urrutia, Felipe Meza, Sangeeta Pratap Sep 2019

Credit, Sectoral Misallocation And Productivity Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis, Carlos Urrutia, Felipe Meza, Sangeeta Pratap

Carlos Urrutia

We study the relation between credit conditions, misallocation of resources, and productivity growth in a multi-sector model with financial frictions. In our framework, working capital constraints and borrowing limits create wedges between the marginal product of inputs and their relative prices, which we can map into distortions to the capital to labor ratio and to the use of intermediate goods. The distribution of these distortions across sectors and their changes over time affect aggregate TFP. We construct a novel dataset for the Mexican manufacturing activity that merges real and financial data at the 4-digit sectoral level and use our model ...


How Do Interest Rates Affect Market Capitalization Growth Rates In The Us?, Philip Carolin Sep 2019

How Do Interest Rates Affect Market Capitalization Growth Rates In The Us?, Philip Carolin

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper investigates how interest rates affect the market capitalization growth rate of individual companies in the US. The research will distinguish itself from previous literature as it analyzes company and macroeconomic data after the 2008 recession. This is particularly interesting as interest rates have been historically low in this time period. Previous research suggests that since the Great Recession the effects of interest rate changes have decreased. On the contrary I will argue that the effects of interest rates still appear to be significant and substantial when explaining the market capitalization growth rate.


The ‘Security Pacific Letter’: Estimating The Causal Effect Of Securitization On Banks’ Systemic Exposure, Paul-Angelo Dell'isola Sep 2019

The ‘Security Pacific Letter’: Estimating The Causal Effect Of Securitization On Banks’ Systemic Exposure, Paul-Angelo Dell'isola

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

This paper aims to test the hypothesis of the ‘Safe Asset narrative’

which states that banks became manufacturers of pseudo safe assets to meet

a global shortage of safe assets in the pre-crisis period. In this narrative,

securitization is the mechanism which enables banks to become underwriters

of safe assets. This paper takes this hypothesis to the data and attempts to

estimate the causal effect of securitization on banks’ systemic exposure. In

particular, this paper exploits a regulatory change that occurred in 1987 when

the OCC expanded the scope of assets US national banks could securitize. By

using state-chartered banks ...


Essays On New Keynesian Term Premium Model With Financial Risks, Weiguo Fu Sep 2019

Essays On New Keynesian Term Premium Model With Financial Risks, Weiguo Fu

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation studies the modeling of U.S. Treasury (UST) yield curve term premia under the New Keynesian (NK) framework. Loosely speaking, term premium is the difference between a government bond’s yield for a specific tenor and the average of the expected short rates up to that tenor. The dissertation is divided into three chapters. The first chapter proposes a New Keynesianism-based macro-finance model estimated by a one-step full information maximum likelihood (FIML) method. The second chapter shows that the one-step FIML method may produce estimation biases, which result in biased expected short rates and term premia. The chapter ...


The Oppressive Pressures Of Globalization And Neoliberalism On Mexican Maquiladora Garment Workers, Jenna Demeter Jul 2019

The Oppressive Pressures Of Globalization And Neoliberalism On Mexican Maquiladora Garment Workers, Jenna Demeter

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at the University of Tennessee

The international economic trends of globalization and neoliberalism have exposed and enabled the exploitation of Mexican workers, especially women in the maquiladora garment industry. During the 1950s, globalization gave rise to the new international division of labor and transnational corporations (TNCs) that have offshored labor-intensive phases of production to developing countries, many of which have pursued export-led industrialization. Export processing in Mexico was encouraged in the 1960s by Item 807 of the U.S. Tariff Code and Mexico’s Border Industrialization Program. Especially following the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, advanced capitalist countries and International Financial Institutions foisted ...


International Welfare Spillovers Of National Pension Schemes, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena Staveley-O'Carroll Jul 2019

International Welfare Spillovers Of National Pension Schemes, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We employ a two-country overlapping-generations model to explore the international dimension of household portfolio choices induced by the asymmetric provision of government-run pensions. We study the resulting patterns of risk-sharing and the corresponding welfare effects on both home and foreign agents. Introducing the defined benefits pay-as-you-go system at home increases the welfare of all other agents at the expense of the home workers and improves the degree of intergenerational risk sharing abroad. Conversely, a defined contributions system leads to welfare losses of both home cohorts accompanied by gains abroad, but does increase the extent of intergenerational risk sharing at home.


In Search Of Equilibrium – How Regulatory Changes Impact The Gambling Industry In Poland, Sebastian Meitz, Stanisław Pogorzelski, Przemysław Bloch May 2019

In Search Of Equilibrium – How Regulatory Changes Impact The Gambling Industry In Poland, Sebastian Meitz, Stanisław Pogorzelski, Przemysław Bloch

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The so-called Polish “gambling affair” of 2009 resulted in the adoption of a new Act on Gambling. The regulation significantly changed the legal environment in Poland. It was also the starting point of what we identified as the search of equilibrium - a number of further legislative changes aimed at creating a sustainable environment for gambling. Some market segments became delegalized, some monopolized, and others liberalized. The Polish Ministry of Finance and the parliament tried to find the right balance between consumer protection, business growth, and government revenue. A goal that is still to be achieved.

This article examines the changes ...


The Argentine Great Depression, Laira Aggarwal, Francois Ries, Alejandro Salvador May 2019

The Argentine Great Depression, Laira Aggarwal, Francois Ries, Alejandro Salvador

Undergraduate Economic Review

The purpose of this paper is to comprehend the business cycle of the Argentine Crisis (1998-2002). The following paper will outline the crisis, starting off with a comprehensive literature review on the topic, analyzing its causes and consequences, followed by a survey on the policy-responses undertaken by the Argentine government to combat the recession. The crisis will then be analyzed in the context of the IS-LM model of macroeconomics.


Financial Red Flags: Empirical Mapping Of Firm Political Preferences By Sector In Mexico, Ian Connors May 2019

Financial Red Flags: Empirical Mapping Of Firm Political Preferences By Sector In Mexico, Ian Connors

Master's Theses

Can the stock market be used to determine the political preferences of individual economic sectors? This paper explores the conceptual relationship between electoral outcomes and financial markets in Mexico. Specifically, it analyzes how financial markets predict the expected effects of a given political platform on the performance of firms within specific sectors. To do this, the study used event-study methodology to calculate abnormal returns on stock prices across the nine sectors listed on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores stock exchange following the historic election of leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), On July 1, 2018. However, despite the uncertainty ...


Essays On Convex Weighting For Global Vector Autoregressive Models, Garrison Leach May 2019

Essays On Convex Weighting For Global Vector Autoregressive Models, Garrison Leach

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on studying the impact that weighting schemes can have on forecasting performance and dynamic analysis in global vector autoregressive (GVAR) models. The first chapter discusses an existing gap in the literature regarding weighting scheme choice and develops a simple, yet powerful method for defining richer spatial linkages in a way that doesn’t sacrifice economic context. The new technique called convex weighting, extends the set of available options for defining spatial linkages in models that handle the curse of dimensionality via compression and offers a justifiable approach to alleviating uncertainty. The second and third chapters apply the ...


Labor Market Policies And Women’S Labor Market Activity In The United States And Germany, Brianna Repke May 2019

Labor Market Policies And Women’S Labor Market Activity In The United States And Germany, Brianna Repke

Senior Honors Projects

In terms of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and many other measures, the United States and Germany are both economic leaders in the global world. However, gender gaps persist in the labor markets of both countries. This paper examines these gender gaps and various labor market policies that are intended to reduce them. The policies examined include gender equality policies and family-oriented policies in the two countries. Over the last few decades, most of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries have experienced low and decreasing birth rates. In response, several countries have introduced parental leave regulations ...


On Macroeconomic Nowcasting And Forecasting With Satellite Imagery And Convolutional Neural Networks, Adam Abate May 2019

On Macroeconomic Nowcasting And Forecasting With Satellite Imagery And Convolutional Neural Networks, Adam Abate

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This research asks whether satellite imagery of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) can aid in the prediction of unemployment over different time horizons. I make these predictions using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). The data consist of 1735 Landsat Analysis Ready Data (ARD) images from 1990 to 2011, each averaged quarterly with a subject that is one of 27 MSAs. I match each quarterly image with a known value of unemployment collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ten training configurations use different combinations of data augmentation and image preprocessing. I find CNN training accuracy around 10 to 20 times the accuracy ...


A Cge-Model Analysis Of U.S. Imposed Automotive Tariffs, Angela Li Apr 2019

A Cge-Model Analysis Of U.S. Imposed Automotive Tariffs, Angela Li

Undergraduate Economic Review

Using a computable generable equilibrium (CGE) model, this research paper evaluates the effects of a U.S. imposed 25% automotive import tariff on NAFTA countries and the European Union, the greatest U.S. automotive trade partners. Three simulations were conducted: the implementation of tariffs with no retaliation, equivalent retaliation on the same products, and retaliation on the top exports of politically significant states, with sensitivity analysis applied in the final scenario. The results demonstrate that the EU is marginally affected while the NAFTA countries experience the greatest increases in prices and reduction in total wages.


A Macroeconomic Approach For Modeling Road Traffic Fatality Rates, Josephine Unger Apr 2019

A Macroeconomic Approach For Modeling Road Traffic Fatality Rates, Josephine Unger

Undergraduate Research Conference

Introduction

After spending a month in Senegal, I noticed the lack of sound infrastructure and safe, reliable transportation systems. Using World Bank data I developed a macroeconomic predictive model for national road traffic mortality rates.


The Role Of Income Inequality As A Predictor Of Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, Daniel Friedberg Apr 2019

The Role Of Income Inequality As A Predictor Of Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, Daniel Friedberg

Student Scholar Showcase

The role of income inequality in relation to gross domestic product is of great importance in modern time. Income inequality is a pressing phenomenon in the fields of economics, politics, and sociology, while Gross Domestic Product is the benchmark statistic in measuring the health of any economy. But how well does income inequality serve as a predictor for the level of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP per capita within a nation? This cross-sectional study determines that the GINI Index has no significant statistical relationship with PPP GDP per capita level. While income inequality is a major economic variable that contributes ...


Opioid Overdose And Unemployment In The Uk, Hayden Grace Apr 2019

Opioid Overdose And Unemployment In The Uk, Hayden Grace

Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

Opioid overdose in the United Kingdom has risen drastically over the last few years along with the rise in the use of zero-hours contracts. Zero-hours contracts are contracts for employment that guarantee no work but can anchor a person to a job that doesn’t pay above minimum wage when they do not receive work. Since opioid use is often associated with poorer economic conditions in the United States, this paper attempts to measure any correlation between poverty and opioid use in the UK. Using zero-hours contracts as a proxy for underemployment we use several regression models to determine the ...


Comparison Of Global Solution Methods To A Zero Lower Bound Model, Emily Martell Apr 2019

Comparison Of Global Solution Methods To A Zero Lower Bound Model, Emily Martell

Undergraduate Honors Theses

During the Great Recession, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered policy rates to zero, introducing a kink in its policy rule and calling into question traditional solution methods. Recent papers have solved fully nonlinear models that treats the zero lower bound (ZLB) as an occasionally binding constraint, but there is little work analyzing the relative performance of these nonlinear solution methods. Two proposed solution methods are policy function iteration with linear interpolation and regime-indexed policy function iteration with Chebyshev polynomial approximation. We examine the impact of making the policy functions conditional on whether the ZLB binds. Our solution algorithm uses ...


The Power Of The Visible Hand, Jacqueline S. Kotkiewicz Apr 2019

The Power Of The Visible Hand, Jacqueline S. Kotkiewicz

Student Publications

This paper is an analysis of state capitalism as a vehicle for change in the global economic system. Specifically, it looks at how state capitalism can be seen as an emerging threat to the Bretton Woods system, as well as how it is becoming an increasingly popular model of development. From national champions, to the Belt and Road initiative, to a rising presence in emerging market economies, the state capitalism model is increasing in influence. Due to this rise in power of countries that practice state capitalism, the global structure of power can potentially be challenged, thus also altering the ...


A Global View Of What Fixes Information Technology Skills Shortage: Panel Data Analyses Of Countries’ Human And Technology Resources, Benyawarath Nithithanatchinnapat, K. D. Joshi Mar 2019

A Global View Of What Fixes Information Technology Skills Shortage: Panel Data Analyses Of Countries’ Human And Technology Resources, Benyawarath Nithithanatchinnapat, K. D. Joshi

Journal of Global Business Insights

This paper aims to provide evidence of what fixes the information technology skills shortage. The focus is on countries' workforce development factors, i.e., human and technology. The research model was tested using secondary data from multiple sources. An ordinary least square with panel corrected standard errors was used to analyze the data. The results indicate that organizations' staff training and gender parity among science, technology, engineering, and mathematics graduates relate negatively to IT talent shortage; this is consistent in both models the authors tested. This study contributes to the IT workforce literature by being the first study that empirically ...


Hedge Funds In The Periphery: An Analysis Of Structures Influencing Fund Behavior In The Icelandic And Cypriot Financial Crises, Jameson K. Mah Mar 2019

Hedge Funds In The Periphery: An Analysis Of Structures Influencing Fund Behavior In The Icelandic And Cypriot Financial Crises, Jameson K. Mah

Undergraduate Economic Review

Hedge funds are often viewed from a positive or negative lens in the public and academic forum. However, both of these perspectives neglect structuralist factors. This paper analyzes the effect of these antecedent economic, political, and legal structures. I argue that these structures are at the root of hedge fund behavior, particularly during financial crises. The financial crises of two peripheral countries, Iceland and Cyprus, are used as case studies to illustrate how hedge fund involvement diverges as a result of structural factors.


How The Federal Reserve Aided The Peoples Bank Of China In Addressing Its 2015 Stock Market Crash, Alec Buchholtz Mar 2019

How The Federal Reserve Aided The Peoples Bank Of China In Addressing Its 2015 Stock Market Crash, Alec Buchholtz

Journal of Financial Crises

An insight into the July 2015 exchange between the Federal Reserve Board and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) discussing efforts to apply lessons from the 1987 "Black Monday" stock market crash to a similar crash that was occurring in China.


The Early Phases Of The Financial Crisis: Reflections On The Lender Of Last Resort, Timothy F. Geithner Mar 2019

The Early Phases Of The Financial Crisis: Reflections On The Lender Of Last Resort, Timothy F. Geithner

Journal of Financial Crises

This essay discusses the powers and limitations of the Federal Reserve’s role as Lender of Last Resort and how it deployed those powers during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. It considers the Fed’s authorities and the frameworks that it relied on in utilizing its powers to calm markets in turmoil and to assist specific financial institutions.


Celtic Tiger Ireland As A Case Study In The Practical Application Of Neoliberal Economic Policy, Natalie Sneed Mar 2019

Celtic Tiger Ireland As A Case Study In The Practical Application Of Neoliberal Economic Policy, Natalie Sneed

Honors Theses, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

The Celtic Tiger economic boom, which occurred in Ireland from approximately 1987 to 2009 has generally been considered one of the most remarkable economic turnarounds in any country in the modern era. My purpose in this project was to identify the primary causes and effects of such rapid and dramatic economic growth and development to determine whether it is sensible for other countries emerging from colonial rule to seek to emulate the Irish economic model. Through a review of the economic literature on the Irish economy in the last three decades, I identify Ireland’s implementation of a neoliberal economic ...


Trends And Tariffs: Nebraska In An Aging Recovery, Eric Thompson Feb 2019

Trends And Tariffs: Nebraska In An Aging Recovery, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Nebraska will record solid economic growth during the forecast period but will lag U.S. growth. Nebraska’s large farming sector is struggling and will not contribute much to economic growth during the forecast period. Job growth also will be sluggish in transportation and retail trade. Job growth, however, will be stronger in the services, finance, manufacturing and construction. Projected growth rates for 2019 to 2021 are presented in Table 1.

Employment will grow by 0.7% to 0.9% per year, below the national rate. Nonfarm income will grow between 4.4% and 4.5% each year. This growth ...


The Impact Of Legalization Of Marijuana On Opioid Overdose Deaths, Radhika N. Bharadwaj Feb 2019

The Impact Of Legalization Of Marijuana On Opioid Overdose Deaths, Radhika N. Bharadwaj

School of Arts & Sciences Theses

This masters’ thesis aims to examine the impact of the legalization of marijuana for recreational use on the death toll from opioid misuse in the state of Colorado. This investigation was done using the Synthetic Controls Method via data collected primarily from the CDC and IPUMS databases. The results indicate that the 2012 legalization policy in Colorado appears to reduce the number of deaths due to opioid overdoses.


Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin Jan 2019

Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin

SMU Data Science Review

Current models for predicting personal consumption expenditures (PCE) employ statistical techniques and rely upon traditional economic features. We compare vector autoregression and random forest regression models using traditional economic features as inputs to predict PCE. Additionally, we develop novel features derived from the earnings call transcripts of publicly traded U.S. companies using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. These new features reduce the mean square error (MSE) of the vector autoregression model by 7% and the random forest model by 23%. We find the random forest models outperformed the vector autoregression models, with a MSE reduction of 68%. We conclude ...


Globalization And Social Spending: Lessons For India, Ansh Jain Jan 2019

Globalization And Social Spending: Lessons For India, Ansh Jain

Honors Program Theses

As developing countries increasingly integrate themselves into the global economy, increased social spending is desirable to protect their vulnerable groups from rapid changes experienced by the economy associated with increased openness. However, while developed nations are largely successful in maintaining and increasing their social spending as a response to globalization, the case with developing countries is usually the opposite. We find that key determinants of this divergence between developing and developed countries stems from factors such as the extent of surplus and informal labor, quality of democracy and democratic institutions, and the power of unions. As India further integrates into ...


Policy, Aggregate Productivity And Misallocation, Guowen Chen Jan 2019

Policy, Aggregate Productivity And Misallocation, Guowen Chen

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation explores the effects of factors such as industrial policy and listing on the stock market on manufacturing firms’ profitability and productivity.

The second chapter investigates the effect of industrial policies on misallocation using a rich data-set of Chinese firms. Using a difference-in-difference approach, I provide evidence that government policies (i.e. the 10th Five Year Plan) favoring particular industries lead to increased misallocation (i.e., an increase in the dispersion of revenue productivity across firms in four-digit industries). Moreover, the differential changes between industries supported and not supported by the 10th Five Year Plan are quantitatively ...


Essays On Institutions And Development, Andrew Jonelis Jan 2019

Essays On Institutions And Development, Andrew Jonelis

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

The essays in this dissertation examine how political institutions affect economic development. In the first essay, I examine how executive control of the legislature shapes the time horizon of governing politicians and its effect on economic growth. The second essay examines how border changes over the past two centuries have provided different areas within modern countries with different institutional histories and how this affects the geographic concentration of economic activity. For the final essay, I examine whether elections have an effect on macroeconomic volatility when controlling for the democratic nature of the regime.


The Effects Of Destruction: A Macroeconomic Story, Kara Riesing Jan 2019

The Effects Of Destruction: A Macroeconomic Story, Kara Riesing

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

Destructive events such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks occur not only in developing economies but also developed economies. Consequently, the response of these economies has been observed in case of both type of events. This dissertation is a collection of essays regarding natural disasters, terrorist attacks and the macroeconomy. Specifically, I examine the response of local labor markets that reflect a wide spectrum of economies, but also have a safety-net in the form of being part of a developed country in the aftermath of a violent tornado. Further, I explore the heterogeneity in the economies response to natural disasters ...