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2018

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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Ten Years Of Economic Analyses For The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive: Overview Of Experiences And Lessons Learned, Rob Van Der Veeren, Ann Kathrin Buchs, Günter Hörmandinger, Soile Oinonen, Conceição Santos, Max Vretborn Dec 2018

Ten Years Of Economic Analyses For The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive: Overview Of Experiences And Lessons Learned, Rob Van Der Veeren, Ann Kathrin Buchs, Günter Hörmandinger, Soile Oinonen, Conceição Santos, Max Vretborn

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive, which came into force in 2008, requires from Member States inter alia to perform various (types of) economic analyses. In order to help Member States to implement this directive, the European working group on Economic and Social Analysis was initiated in 2009. This working group has developed various guidance documents which have been very useful in helping each other to understand the Directive and its requirements, to develop one language, to understand the pros and cons of various approaches, and to share experiences. However, up until now, outside of this working group this information ...


Free Trade And Corporate Social Responsibility: Ethical Dilemmas In Global Economic Development, Sarah Papion Dec 2018

Free Trade And Corporate Social Responsibility: Ethical Dilemmas In Global Economic Development, Sarah Papion

Capstone Projects and Master's Theses

Through the lens of the free-trade-optimist, it is black and white: corporations bring jobs, and jobs equal a happy and healthy economy. A major oversight in this neoliberal Utopian ideology is that corporations are not in the business of building communities, nor do they have an interest in keeping their operations stationary enough to allow economic growth to occur over a span of years. Corporations abandon communities as quickly as they arrive to find their next cheap labor hub. Quite contradictory to the original purpose of free trade, economic growth in Free Trade Zones is not long term or secure ...


Efficiency With Endogenous Population And Fixed Resources, Juan Carlos Cordoba, Xiying Liu Nov 2018

Efficiency With Endogenous Population And Fixed Resources, Juan Carlos Cordoba, Xiying Liu

Economics Working Papers

This article studies socially optimal allocations, in the first-best sense, in environments characterized by fixed resources and endogenous fertility. Individuals in our environment are fully rational and altruistic toward their descendants, the social planner is benevolent, and there is full information. Our model allows for rich heterogeneity of abilities, preferences for children, and costs of raising children. We find that efficient allocations in the endogenous fertility case differ significantly from its exogenous fertility counterpart. In particular, optimal steady-state population is proportional to the amount of fixed resources and to the level of technology while steady state individual consumption is independent ...


Pareto-Improving Transition To Fully Funded Pensions Under Myopia, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Marias H. Gestsson Nov 2018

Pareto-Improving Transition To Fully Funded Pensions Under Myopia, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Marias H. Gestsson

Economics Working Papers

Under dynamic efficiency, a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension scheme is often described as an “original sin”: It helps the current generation of retirees but hurts future generations because they are forced to save via a return-dominated scheme. Abandoning it is deemed welfare-improving but typically not for all generations. But what if agents are present-biased (hence, undersave for retirement) and the “paternalistically motivated forced savings” component of a PAYG scheme motivated its existence in the first place? This paper shows it is possible to transition from such a PAYG scheme on to a higher return, mandated fully-funded scheme; yet, no generation is ...


Foreign Capital Inflows And Economic Well-Being: A Statistical Analysis Of 46 Sub-Saharan African Countries From 1995-2015, Alexander M. Csanadi Oct 2018

Foreign Capital Inflows And Economic Well-Being: A Statistical Analysis Of 46 Sub-Saharan African Countries From 1995-2015, Alexander M. Csanadi

Undergraduate Economic Review

Variation in the economic well-being among sub-Saharan African countries is among the highest of any region in the world. This paper attempts to address this disparity by exploring the role of foreign capital inflows. This project extends the concept of well-being beyond GDP growth, to include measures of poverty and inequality. A multivariate regression analysis finds that the observed capital inflows have significant effects on all three measurements of well-being. Findings suggest that the level of affluence of the domestic population has significant effects on the ability of those populations to translate diaspora remittances into improvements in well-being.


A Pilot Study Of Uncertainty In Income Tax Forecasts, Andrew Joung, Benjamin Lockwood, Alex Rees-Jones Oct 2018

A Pilot Study Of Uncertainty In Income Tax Forecasts, Andrew Joung, Benjamin Lockwood, Alex Rees-Jones

Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC)

How confidently can taxpayers forecast the tax bill that they will face? We asked survey respondents to provide both point estimates and subjective probability distributions of items from the tax return that they will submit the following April. In a pilot study, consisting of a sample of 188 participants from Amazon Mechanical Turk, we find evidence of substantial uncertainty over both the final tax and its determinants. We discuss the implications of this uncertainty for both tax policy and economic modeling.


Accounting For Leverage In Intangible And Tangible Investments Across The Business Cycle, Neil Mauskar Sep 2018

Accounting For Leverage In Intangible And Tangible Investments Across The Business Cycle, Neil Mauskar

Undergraduate Economic Review

In this paper, I study the role of the leverage ratio and its impact on investing in tangible and intangible goods. The results confirm the hypotheses outlined in the introduction. Specifically, the results show that when accounting for differences in the leverage ratio between firms, investment is cyclical. However, when looking only at firms with low leverages, intangible investing becomes countercyclical. Moreover, during recessions, firms with lower leverages tend to invest more than firms with higher leverages. Finally, the results argue for the existence of financial frictions between investing in tangibles and intangibles.


Essays On Parental Leave And Family Labour Supply, Youjin Choi Sep 2018

Essays On Parental Leave And Family Labour Supply, Youjin Choi

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis studies married couples' decisions regarding labour supply, fertility, and take-up of parental leave. Importantly, it emphasizes household interactions in a family labour supply framework where husbands and wives jointly make decisions.

In Chapter 2, I describe how differences in married individuals' time allocations between Canada and the U.S. may be related to different parental leave policies in the two countries. First, I document background information on parental leave policies and take-up behaviour in the two countries. Second, I analyze married individuals' time allocations using data from the General Social Survey (GSS) for Canada and American Time Use ...


Essays In New Keynesian Monetary Policy, Tzu-Hao Huang Sep 2018

Essays In New Keynesian Monetary Policy, Tzu-Hao Huang

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The dissertation consists of three Chapters. I consider New Keynesian models which involve tradeoffs between output gap and inflation variances. Such policy strategy is often referred to as flexible inflation targeting rules (e.g., Lars Svensson 2011, pp.1238-95). Taylor rules, in general, have the symbolic expression 𝑖t=𝜑x𝑥t+𝜑𝜋𝜋t+𝜑g𝑔t, where 𝑖t is the nominal interest rate at period t, 𝑥t is the target variable output gap at period t, 𝜋t is the target variable inflation rate at period t, 𝑔t is realized shock to ...


Non-Linear Time Series Modelling With Applications To Equity And Fixed Income Markets, Galyna Grynkiv Aug 2018

Non-Linear Time Series Modelling With Applications To Equity And Fixed Income Markets, Galyna Grynkiv

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

My thesis focuses on theoretical and empirical aspects of modelling time series during different financial and economic conditions. It consists of three separate chapters in which the properties of Threshold Vector Autoregressive Model (TVAR) models are addressed with subsequent applications to equity and fixed income markets. In the first chapter, which is a joint work with my supervisor Lars Stentoft, we examine the steady state properties of the TVAR model. Assuming the trigger variable is exogenous and the regime process follows a Bernoulli distribution, we derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of a stationary distribution. The derived stationarity ...


Three Essays On Macroeconomics And Laboratory Experiments, Justin Leblanc Aug 2018

Three Essays On Macroeconomics And Laboratory Experiments, Justin Leblanc

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation examines two prominent macroeconomic models and their behavioral underpinnings in a laboratory setting. The first is that of state-dependent pricing models (i.e., “menu cost” models). Comparisons were made between laboratory results and a computer- simulated optimal behavior, and results indicate that subjects update prices too frequently resulting in statistically suboptimal profits due to subjects’ inability to clearly ascertain the optimal threshold at which to update prices. Second, the consumption predictions made under rational inattention theory were examined via a laboratory experiment. Results indicate that subjects’ behavior aligns well with predictions in that they consume stochastically, yet adjust ...


Three Essays On Growth, Housing Market And Inequality, Shahrzad Ghourchian Jun 2018

Three Essays On Growth, Housing Market And Inequality, Shahrzad Ghourchian

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation includes three essays on growth, the housing market, and inequality. In the first essay, I analyze the effects of government consumption and government debt on long-run economic growth by considering the economic characteristics of the countries investigated. Linear regressions reveal that government consumption has a much bigger negative impact on long-run growth compared with the negative (and sometimes insignificant) effects of government debt. Nonlinear analyses further show that such effects are highly impacted by the economic characteristics of the countries investigated.

In the second essay, I study time-series fluctuations in the United States housing market from 2010 to ...


Resource Nationalism And Energy Integration In Latin America: The Paradox Of Populism, Brian Hollingsworth Jun 2018

Resource Nationalism And Energy Integration In Latin America: The Paradox Of Populism, Brian Hollingsworth

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation examines the relationship between resource nationalism and energy integration, and uses Bolivia and Brazil as a test case. Essentially, does resource nationalism affect energy integration? The findings nest within more expansive questions on international political economy and export-driven models of development. Why do populist regimes, historically operating under an economic nationalist cum protectionist paradigm, simultaneously pursue policies of economic integration? What is the relationship between resource nationalists and open markets, especially in the hydrocarbons sector? What is the relationship between populists, who are typically resource nationalists, and their decision to choose policies of energy integration?

The most common ...


An Economics Primer For Cyber Security Analysts, John T. Harvey Jun 2018

An Economics Primer For Cyber Security Analysts, John T. Harvey

Military Cyber Affairs

One of the ingredients necessary to an understanding of the impact of cyber attacks is a reliable model of the economy. We face great challenges in trying to protect an already potentially unstable system from cyber aggression and operating with a flawed understanding of the determinants of output, employment, asset prices, et cetera, surely condemns us to failure. This is so not only because we need to know where points of leverage might exist for bad actors to disrupt and disable our system, but because policy recommendations may face significant push back from both selected scholars and powerful vested interests ...


Moderate Growth With A Stronger Industrial Sector, Eric Thompson Jun 2018

Moderate Growth With A Stronger Industrial Sector, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Nebraska will record solid economic growth during the forecast period but will lag U.S. growth. While Nebraska’s large farming sector has stabilized, it will not contribute much to economic growth during the forecast period. Job growth also will be sluggish in transportation, retail trade and state and local government. Job growth, however, will be stronger in the services, finance, manufacturing and construction. Projected growth rates for 2018 to 2020 are presented in Table 1.

Employment will grow by 0.8% to 1.0% per year, below the national rate. Non-farm income will grow between 3.6% and 3 ...


Globalization, Conflict, And The Effects Of The Rate Of Change Of Globalization: An Empirical Analysis, Ashley Stephens Jun 2018

Globalization, Conflict, And The Effects Of The Rate Of Change Of Globalization: An Empirical Analysis, Ashley Stephens

Honors Projects

The world is becoming increasingly more interconnected with technological advances leading to more and more globalization. It is important to see how globalization affects society, especially in the lesser developed post-conflict regions of Africa. The theories of liberalism, Marxism, and realism all offer plausible, yet strikingly different theories on the relationship between globalization and conflict. This paper conceptually examines the dominant theories of globalization and conflict, then uses open-source panel data on globalization and conflict in Africa to empirically test which theory is supported by the data, then tests if there is a correlation between the rate of globalization and ...


Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith May 2018

Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

There is a growing interest in allowing for asymmetry in the density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. 
In multivariate time series, this can be achieved with a copula model, where both serial and cross-sectional dependence is captured by a copula function, and the margins are nonparametric. Yet most existing copulas cannot capture heteroskedasticity well, which is a feature of many economic and financial time series. To do so, we propose a new copula created by the inversion of a multivariate unobserved component stochastic volatility model, and show how to estimate it using Bayesian methods. We fit the copula model to real-time ...


Are Consumers As Constrained As Hens Are Confined? Brain Activations And Behavioral Choices After Informational Influence, Alex J. Francisco, Amanda S. Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson L. Lusk, Brandon Mcfadden, Jared M. Bruce, Robin L. Aupperle, Seung-Lark Lim May 2018

Are Consumers As Constrained As Hens Are Confined? Brain Activations And Behavioral Choices After Informational Influence, Alex J. Francisco, Amanda S. Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson L. Lusk, Brandon Mcfadden, Jared M. Bruce, Robin L. Aupperle, Seung-Lark Lim

John Crespi

In 2008, California passed Proposition 2, specifying confinement space for certain farm animals. Proposition 2 went into full effect January 2015 and has significant implications for egg production in California and possibly even interstate commerce. We examined the influence of promotional videos aired during the campaign on consumers’ willingness-to-pay for eggs produced in a more open production system (i.e., cage-free, free range) and corresponding neurofunctional activations during decisions. Forty-six participants (24 females), aged 18–55 years (M=29.65), were enrolled and performed a food decision-making task during fMRI scanning. In each decision, two options of identical one dozen ...


The Behavioral And Neuroeconomics Of Food And Brand Decisions: Executive Summary, Amanda Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson Lusk May 2018

The Behavioral And Neuroeconomics Of Food And Brand Decisions: Executive Summary, Amanda Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson Lusk

John Crespi

This executive summary provides the rationale for and summary of the articles of this Special Edition of the Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization.


The Economic Impacts Of A U.S. Withdrawal From Nafta: A Cge Analysis, Jonathan Liu May 2018

The Economic Impacts Of A U.S. Withdrawal From Nafta: A Cge Analysis, Jonathan Liu

Undergraduate Economic Review

The aim of this study is to examine the economic impacts of a U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on Canada, Mexico and the United States. The shocks simulate scenarios in which the U.S instates penalizing tariff rates on NAFTA countries, a trade war between NAFTA members and a tariff reset to the WTO MFN rates. The effects of these tariff structures are analyzed under the framework of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a focus on macroeconomic variables and welfare. The findings show that, in all iterations, Mexico’s economy takes a ...


Essays In Business Cycles And Asset Pricing, Ruiyang Hu May 2018

Essays In Business Cycles And Asset Pricing, Ruiyang Hu

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates several key macroeconomic and asset pricing topics, with a particular interest in exploring the underlying driving forces of business cycles and asset market fluctuations. The dissertation includes three chapters, with the first two chapters solo-authored by me and the third chapter co-authored with Dr. Carlos Zarazaga.

The first chapter develops a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model, and exploits Bayesian inference methods to investigate the major sources of fluctuations in aggregate variables and asset prices. Taking into account the possibility that the growth of total factor productivity, labor-augmenting technology and investment-specific technology might consist of permanent and ...


Public Policy And Millennium Development Challenges: Case Study Of Africa, Pathkonn Kombate May 2018

Public Policy And Millennium Development Challenges: Case Study Of Africa, Pathkonn Kombate

Master's Theses

Abstract:

Based on a panel of 50 African countries from 1970 to 2015, this study analyzes the impact of public investments and spending in education and health sectors on GDP per capita growth. I separately modeled for education and health capital, while controlling for governance and demonstrated the importance of investments and expenditures on human capital in countries production capacity accumulation, which in the long run leads sustainable economic growth. Results show a positive relationship between spending in those sectors and the per capita income growth and proves their importance on the continents’ combat against poverty.


The Significance Of Mongolia's Foreign Policy And Security Apparatus On A Global And Regional Scale, Bolor Lkhaajav May 2018

The Significance Of Mongolia's Foreign Policy And Security Apparatus On A Global And Regional Scale, Bolor Lkhaajav

Master's Projects and Capstones

Mongolia, land-locked between two politically, economically, and militarily powerful nations — Russia and China — often must balance its foreign and security policies with its two neighbors and countries beyond. When discussing Mongolia’s foreign policy and security apparatus, historians and scholars look at the international relations of East Asia as a whole. This is the case not because Mongolia’s foreign policy is insignificant but because greater powers impose greater influence on smaller states. Mongolia’s partial involvement in World War II (WWII), and the Cold War introduced new challenges as well as opportunities for Mongolia to modernize its foreign policy ...


A New Keynesian Approach To Estimating Welfare Losses Under Strict And Flexible-Targeting Regimes, Shawn Weber May 2018

A New Keynesian Approach To Estimating Welfare Losses Under Strict And Flexible-Targeting Regimes, Shawn Weber

School of Arts & Sciences Theses

How do different inflation-targeting regimes affect the monetary loss-function of a central bank aiming at stabilizing inflation around an inflation target and stabilizing the real economy? Under a basic New-Keynesian framework, this paper examines the effect of inflation-targeting regimes on the monetary loss function of a central bank.


Price-Level Co-Movements Within Currency Unions: An Alternative Integration Metric, Gregory W. Whitten May 2018

Price-Level Co-Movements Within Currency Unions: An Alternative Integration Metric, Gregory W. Whitten

Prof. WHITTEN Gregory William

No abstract provided.


Does Debt Matter?, Luhan Li May 2018

Does Debt Matter?, Luhan Li

Applied Economics Theses

National debt is a popular topic, since people have a lot of different views on national debt. For example, many people think that there is a positive relationship between national debt and GDP per capita. In other words, the national debt has also increased with the growth of GDP per capita. However, some people feel that there is an inverse relationship between them, so much so that the topic has been discussed. Based on my interest in this topic, I decided to discuss this question. This paper will discuss their influence and importance by analyzing national debt, GDP per capita ...


The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Price Of Gold, Yunhao Sun May 2018

The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Price Of Gold, Yunhao Sun

Applied Economics Theses

My thesis is that macro factors have been important to the change of the gold price, but have had a differential impact in three factors: Gross Global Product (GGP), real interest rate, and U.S. dollar index (USDI). I estimated the 1st difference of the gold model to determine the impact of macro factors on the price of gold per quarter. The model was estimated using the OLS approach the sample size was 148. I make use of data from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic data. The result was that 1st difference model had statistically insignificant ...


Public Principles And Economic Legacy, Stanley Schwartz Apr 2018

Public Principles And Economic Legacy, Stanley Schwartz

Channels: Where Disciplines Meet

2018 will mark the 60th anniversary of the publication of Public Principles of Public Debt. The Nobel-prize winning economist’s first book conflicted with the Keynesian orthodoxy of the day, and added fresh ideas to an ongoing debate over the fundamentals of public debt theory. This paper seeks to outline the dialogue among leading economists surrounding public debt since the publication of Public Principles of Public Debt, examining the major schools of thought and their development. The ideas of John Maynard Keynes, James Buchanan, and Richard Barro will receive attention, without neglecting other significant contributions. The paper will conclude ...


The Effect Of Excess Reserves On U.S Real Gross Domestic Product, Prince J. Adjei Apr 2018

The Effect Of Excess Reserves On U.S Real Gross Domestic Product, Prince J. Adjei

Doctoral Dissertations

The recent financial crisis has triggered questions regarding the role of the Federal Reserve Bank and the effectiveness of its intervention in the financial markets, post the crisis. This paper investigates the impact of huge spikes in excess reserves on the U.S. real gross domestic product. U.S. Federal Reserve in an effort to deal with the 2008 financial crisis instituted a series of programs aimed at taming the impact of the crisis. Through its emergency lending activities and Quantitative Easing (QE) programs, the Federal Reserve created a huge spike in excess reserves to levels not seen before. The ...


Aiding To Repair: An Analysis On The Impact Of Foreign Aid In Rwanda After The 1994 Genocide, Mary Atta-Dakwa Apr 2018

Aiding To Repair: An Analysis On The Impact Of Foreign Aid In Rwanda After The 1994 Genocide, Mary Atta-Dakwa

International Relations Honors Papers

Between April 1994 to July 1994, about 1 million Hutus and Tutsis were murdered in the Rwandan genocide. The genocide not only severely declined the population of Rwandans, but largely impacted its infrastructure, government, and economy. After the genocide, about $15 billion US dollars was sent to provide humanitarian aid. Post-genocide Rwanda has seen a significant growth in its economy; however, speculators may question if the economic growth is attributed to the foreign aid it received after the 1994 genocide. This paper seeks to examine the impact of foreign aid on post-war reconstruction on Rwanda as a case study.