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2014

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Articles 1 - 30 of 79

Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Macroeconomic Fluctuations As Sources Of Luck In Ceo Compensation, Hsin-Hui Chiu, Lars Oxelheim, Clas Wihlborg, Jianhua Zhang Dec 2014

Macroeconomic Fluctuations As Sources Of Luck In Ceo Compensation, Hsin-Hui Chiu, Lars Oxelheim, Clas Wihlborg, Jianhua Zhang

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Macroeconomic fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation can be considered sources of good or bad “luck” for corporate performance if management is unable to adjust operations to these fluctuations. Based on a sample of 2,091 US firms, we decompose the impacts of macroeconomic fluctuations on three measures of CEO compensation. Our study provides empirical support for the importance of considering macroeconomic fluctuations in designing CEO incentive schemes. It adds to the managerial power literature on moral hazard and CEO compensation by pinpointing the obvious risk that the CEO in an asymmetric and non-linear reward system will be ...


The Impact Of The Volatility Of Monetary Policy On A Small Economy: Some Evidence From New Zealand, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao, Wenjun Zhang Dec 2014

The Impact Of The Volatility Of Monetary Policy On A Small Economy: Some Evidence From New Zealand, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao, Wenjun Zhang

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks on a small economy using the GARCH-SVAR model. We enrich the SVAR model by using time-varying International and domestic volatilities as endogenous variables. The results show that although monetary policy shocks have transient effect on real economy (neutrality of money) the impact of the volatility of monetary policy shocks on real part of the economy is permanent and significant. Findings of variance decomposition also show that New Zealand heavily depends on international trade, so international monetary shocks can have a permanent impact on the local ...


External Economies And Competitive Equilibrium, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan Dec 2014

External Economies And Competitive Equilibrium, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan

George A. Hay

In an article published in 1955, Murray Kemp analyzed the case for interference with the competitive allocation of resources when external economies of production are present. In the specific model we are interested in—where the costs of any one producer's operations are affected by the total output of all producers of the same product—Kemp attempted to show that where entry into the industry is closed (although the industry is otherwise perfectly competitive), "there can always be found a subsidy, either on the product or on a particular factor, which will be a sufficient incentive to firms to ...


External Diseconomies In Competitive Supply: Comment, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan Dec 2014

External Diseconomies In Competitive Supply: Comment, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan

George A. Hay

In a recent article in this Review, Charles Goetz and James Buchanan (G-B) assert that " . . . the standard description of misallocation in the presence of external production diseconomies is misleading . . . " because these externalities produce a ". . . combination of exchange-inefficiency with production-inefficiency [which ] renders the construction of correction devices much more difficult" (p. 889). Stated otherwise their contention is that with external diseconomies that are internal to an industry, i.e., those that each firm in an industry inflicts on other firms in the same industry, a competitive regime in the presence of a per unit tax on output designed to eliminate the ...


On Testing For Sphericity With Non-Normality In A Fixed Effects Panel Data Model, Badi H. Baltagi, Chihwa Kao, Bin Peng Dec 2014

On Testing For Sphericity With Non-Normality In A Fixed Effects Panel Data Model, Badi H. Baltagi, Chihwa Kao, Bin Peng

Center for Policy Research

Building upon the work of Chen et al. (2010), this paper proposes a test for sphericity of the variance-covariance matrix in a fixed effects panel data regression model without the normality assumption on the disturbances.


Volatility, The Macroeconomy, And Asset Prices, Ravi Bansal, Dana Kiku, Ivan Shaliastovich, Amir Yaron Dec 2014

Volatility, The Macroeconomy, And Asset Prices, Ravi Bansal, Dana Kiku, Ivan Shaliastovich, Amir Yaron

Finance Papers

How important are volatility fluctuations for asset prices and the macroeconomy? We find that an increase in macroeconomic volatility is associated with an increase in discount rates and a decline in consumption. We develop a framework in which cash flow, discount rate, and volatility risks determine risk premia and show that volatility plays a significant role in explaining the joint dynamics of returns to human capital and equity. Volatility risk carries a sizable positive risk premium and helps account for the cross section of expected returns. Our evidence demonstrates that volatility is important for understanding expected returns and macroeconomic fluctuations.


The Nonlinear Price Fynamics Of Us Equity Etfs, Gunduz Caginalp, Mark Desantis, Akin Sayrak Dec 2014

The Nonlinear Price Fynamics Of Us Equity Etfs, Gunduz Caginalp, Mark Desantis, Akin Sayrak

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

We investigate the price dynamics of large market-capitalization U.S. equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in order to uncover trader motivations and strategy. We show that prices of highly liquid ETFs can deviate significantly from their daily net asset values. By adjusting for changes in valuations, we report the impact of non-classical variables including price trend and volatility using data from 2008 to 2011. We find a cubic nonlinearity in the trend suggesting that traders are not only aware of the underreaction of others, but also self-optimize by anticipating others' reactions, and sell when the uptrend is stronger than usual.


The Financial Crisis Impact On Potential Output In Iran, Fatemeh Almasi, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jalili Khodaparast Shirazi Dr. Nov 2014

The Financial Crisis Impact On Potential Output In Iran, Fatemeh Almasi, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jalili Khodaparast Shirazi Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this study the quarterly data from 1996:1-2011:2 have been used to investigate the effect of financial crisis on potential output in Iran. For this purpose potential output, natural unemployment rate, spread between short-run and long-run interest rate and real money supply variables are used to estimate Auto Regressive Model and analyze Impulse-Response function and Variance Decomposition. The results show that financial crisis has a negative impact on potential output in Iran. Also, monetary shocks have negative impact on potential output in Iran. As regards, monetary policy has no effect on actual output in long-run, it seems that ...


The Impact Of Global And Domestic Volatility Of Monetary Policy: A Var-Garch Approach, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao Prof., Wenjun Zhang Dr. Nov 2014

The Impact Of Global And Domestic Volatility Of Monetary Policy: A Var-Garch Approach, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao Prof., Wenjun Zhang Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In the past six decades a lot of research has been carried out to find the effect of monetary policy on real economy. But in the most of these articles, the effect of the volatility of monetary policy has been ignored. This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks using the GARCH-VAR model. We enrich the VAR model by adding time-varying volatility as endogenous variables. We consider three different types of shocks: internal (domestic), regional and global. For our empirical evidence we use quarterly data of Australia and New Zealand from 1988:1 ...


A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala Nov 2014

A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the capital markets by modeling exchange traded funds (ETFs) returns using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology. The results show that the 10-Year Treasury yields are significant in the returns of some sectors of the economy more so than others, and the Federal Funds Futures trading volume is significant in all ETFs return volatility. The implications of these results not only provide information about the reaction of the ETF market and QE, but also provide insight for developing investment strategies.


Agricultura Ó Industria ¿Un Juego De Suma Cero?, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz Nov 2014

Agricultura Ó Industria ¿Un Juego De Suma Cero?, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Se viene escuchando de forma recurrente que el modelo productivo paraguayo, basado en la agricultura mecanizada y la ganadería extensiva, es promotor de desigualdades sociales. Estas afirmaciones por lo general no se sustentan en evidencia concluyente. Otros sectores critican, a su vez, el impacto negativo de la expansión primaria sobre el medio ambiente y la salud de las personas. En este campo la evidencia es más robusta, lo cual deja al desnudo la debilidad de las instituciones del Estado por defender los ecosistemas y la salud de las personas. También se cuestiona el escaso aporte tributario del sector primario. En ...


The Long-Run Decline In Labor Share: Technology Versus Institutions, Mary O'Mahony, Michela Vecchi, Francesco Venturini Oct 2014

The Long-Run Decline In Labor Share: Technology Versus Institutions, Mary O'Mahony, Michela Vecchi, Francesco Venturini

Francesco Venturini

We investigate the causes of the declining trend in labor shares using a large industry level data set and controlling for heterogeneity, non-stationarity and cross-sectional dependence. Our results show that in, the long run, technological changes and ICT capital are major sources of the decline. Conversely, knowledge capital increases labor shares, as well as more stringent regulations on intellectual property rights. Other market regulations do not play a significant role. Our results also show that hysteresis characterizes the dynamics of labor shares in all countries. This further supports the assumption that institutional differences do not cause labor share movements and ...


Three Essays On The Economics Of Defense Contracting, Output And Income Inequality, Edward M. Decambra Oct 2014

Three Essays On The Economics Of Defense Contracting, Output And Income Inequality, Edward M. Decambra

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations.

The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward ...


Implications Of Export Competitiveness And Performance Of Textile And Clothing Sector Of Pakistan: Pre And Post Quota Analysis, Nawaz Ahmad Oct 2014

Implications Of Export Competitiveness And Performance Of Textile And Clothing Sector Of Pakistan: Pre And Post Quota Analysis, Nawaz Ahmad

Nawaz Ahmad

Textile and Clothing sector of Pakistan has been facing different international trade reforms i.e. Multi-fiber Arrangements, Quota elimination and for some of the developing countries European union, introduced special trade arrangements like GSP plus to improve their balance of trade conditions. In the light of pre quota elimination and post quota elimination periods, this paper highlights trade performance of textile and clothing sector in depth. This study focused on finding the extent of revealed comparative advantage of textile and revealed comparative advantage of clothing sector on overall textile and clothing trade performance of Pakistan. For this purpose study applied ...


Do Hitters Boost Their Performance During Their Contract Years?, Heather M. O'Neill Oct 2014

Do Hitters Boost Their Performance During Their Contract Years?, Heather M. O'Neill

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

Each season, baseball fans and journalists alike identify which players are in the final years of their contracts because a lot rides on how the players produce in their “contract year.” Will a player boost his effort and performance in an effort to improve his value and bargaining power? Or will he crumble under the pressure? Or are players’ performances uncorrelated with where they stand in their contract cycles?


Medium Term Business Cycles In Developing Countries, Diego Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha, Luis Serven Oct 2014

Medium Term Business Cycles In Developing Countries, Diego Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha, Luis Serven

Open Dartmouth: Faculty Open Access Articles

Business cycle fluctuations in developed economies (N) tend to have large and persistent e§ects on developing countries (S). We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed to developing economies with a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. Consistent with the model we observe that the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves positively with output in both N and S. After calibrating the model to Mexico and the U.S., it can explain the ...


Amicus Brief In Maryland Comptroller V. Wynne, Michael S. Knoll, Ruth Mason Sep 2014

Amicus Brief In Maryland Comptroller V. Wynne, Michael S. Knoll, Ruth Mason

Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law

The internal consistency test reveals that Maryland applies systematically higher “county” taxes to interstate commerce than to in-state commerce.

Economic analysis of Maryland’s tax regime — including its taxes on inbound, outbound, and domestic activities — confirms what the internal consistency test suggests, namely, that the Maryland “county” tax discourages interstate commerce. Specifically, the Maryland tax regime discourages Maryland residents from earning income outside of Maryland, and it simultaneously discourages nonresidents from earning income in Maryland. Maryland alone causes this distortion; the distortion does not depend on the taxes imposed by any other state.

Petitioner’s argument that Maryland’s outbound ...


An Economic Analysis Of Housing Market Instability And Affordability In China, You Wang Sep 2014

An Economic Analysis Of Housing Market Instability And Affordability In China, You Wang

Undergraduate Economic Review

Applying an intertemporal optimization model proposed by Aizenman and Marion (1991), this research quantifies instability in the Chinese housing market. Although the Chinese government established numerous real estate policies to ensure the stability of the housing market, the regression analyses indicate that housing policies had no significant impact on the stabilization of the Chinese housing market. Alternatively, macroeconomic factors are identified as significant explanatory variables to the instability of housing prices. In addition, this research computes the median multiple for major cities in China and provides an alternative means of investigating the abnormal housing price situation in China.


Financialization Of The Commodities Futures Markets And Its Effects On Prices, Manisha Pradhananga Sep 2014

Financialization Of The Commodities Futures Markets And Its Effects On Prices, Manisha Pradhananga

Doctoral Dissertations

After declining for almost three decades, the food price index of the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) rose by 90 percent between January 2002 and June 2008. Besides the magnitude, the rise in prices was remarkable for its breadth, affecting a broad range of commodities including agricultural (wheat, corn, soybeans, cocoa, coffee), energy (crude oil, gasoline), and metals (copper, aluminum). According to the US Department of Agriculture, this price spike was responsible for increasing the number of malnourished people by 80 million. These dramatic developments in prices coincided with a rapid inflow of investment into the commodities futures market -- the ...


Three Essays In Macroeconomic History, Joshua W. Mason Sep 2014

Three Essays In Macroeconomic History, Joshua W. Mason

Doctoral Dissertations

Following Minsky, an economy can be understood as a set of units linked to each other by flows of money payments and by the commitments to future payments reflected on balance sheets. This dissertation offers three accounts of the historical evolution of the US economy, conceived of a network of balance sheets, over the course of 20th and early 21st century. The first essay looks at changes in the pattern of payment flows between nonfinancial corporations and financial markets associated with the ``shareholder revolution" of the 1980s. It argues that the shift in payouts to shareholders from a quasi-fixed stream ...


Government Versus Market Regulation: The Nanny State Or The Liberal State, Warren Coats Aug 2014

Government Versus Market Regulation: The Nanny State Or The Liberal State, Warren Coats

Warren Coats

The nanny state world is characterized by a growing list of regulations and government supervision of business in an effort to fix the most recently observed problems. The price of such protection is the increased cost of doing business, which tends to crowd out small businesses and favor large ones, which can more easily absorb the compliance costs. The benefit is often difficult to detect. Has Dodd-Frank really made it feasible to fail our largest banks (now larger than they were just before the Great Recession), i.e. are they no longer too big to fail?

The self-governing, liberal state ...


Essays On Fiscal Policies In Open Economies, Ahiteme Nicodeme Houndonougbo Aug 2014

Essays On Fiscal Policies In Open Economies, Ahiteme Nicodeme Houndonougbo

Doctoral Dissertations

Investigating various fiscal policy issues in the context of an open economy, this dissertation consists of three essays.

The first essay addresses the question of the volatility of foreign aid and its impact on resource-constrained developing economies. A small open-economy business cycle model is developed that accounts for the effect of external shocks specific to developing economies. The model produces business cycle patterns consistent with the data and key stylized facts. The model is calibrated to reflect the structural empirical regularities of an aid-dependent developing country. The parameters of the exogenous stochastic shocks are estimated using Bayesian methods and 50 ...


Economic Impacts Of Increased Corporate Average Fuel Economy (Cafe) Standards, Ann K. Hunter-Pirtle Aug 2014

Economic Impacts Of Increased Corporate Average Fuel Economy (Cafe) Standards, Ann K. Hunter-Pirtle

Dissertations and Theses in Agricultural Economics

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates that U.S. transportation fuel producers blend specific volumes of ethanol and other biofuels with fossil fuels to spur U.S. biofuel production and to minimize foreign oil imports. Ethanol is more corrosive to auto engines than gasoline, and although vehicles manufactured since 2001 are approved to use up to a 15% ethanol blend (E15) (Naylor & Falcon, 2011), E10 is much more widely available. Ethanol producers therefore face a so-called blend wall at 10 percent—a maximum amount of ethanol that is usable domestically based on the demand for gasoline.

Meanwhile, gasoline demand in ...


A New (And Old) Macroeconomic Policy Framework, Lok Sang Ho Jul 2014

A New (And Old) Macroeconomic Policy Framework, Lok Sang Ho

Prof. HO Lok-sang

This paper proposes a framework built on the simple Keynesian Cross but recommends a non-Keynesian fiscal monetary policy mix. A fiscal policy conditions index and a monetary conditions index are proposed, to be compared to the full employment compatible fiscal and monetary conditions. Fiscal policy should be inert throughout the different phases of the business cycle while monetary policy should adjust to the changing conditions in order to maintain full employment without overheating. The slightly different policy considerations for bigger and for smaller economies are discussed.


The Nature Of Optimal Public Policy, Lok Sang Ho Jul 2014

The Nature Of Optimal Public Policy, Lok Sang Ho

Prof. HO Lok-sang

The design of public policy must take human nature as an immutable constraint, both with a view to choosing the appropriate policy objectives and in regard to the human response and hence the effects of the policy. Once human nature is seen in the proper light and the multiple needs of society are recognized, it is not difficult to see the logic of a hierarchy of policy objectives with some being treated as tentative constraints and others as “maximands." Optimal public policy making in the short term would treat those constraints as given but over the longer term the constraints ...


Curriculum Vitae, Ronald R. Kumar Jul 2014

Curriculum Vitae, Ronald R. Kumar

Ronald R Kumar

My updated CV


Resolution Of Bad Loan Problem: Bank-Level Evidence From A Low-Income Country, Abu S. Amin, Lucy Chernykh, Mahmood Osman Imam Jul 2014

Resolution Of Bad Loan Problem: Bank-Level Evidence From A Low-Income Country, Abu S. Amin, Lucy Chernykh, Mahmood Osman Imam

WCOB Working Papers

How do banks resolve a severe bad loan problem in a capital-constrained, low income country when a government bailout is not an option? We address this question by examining new evidence of a sharp decline in bad loan ratios in a panel of domestic banks in Bangladesh. On the aggregate level, the share of nonperforming loans in this market has dropped six fold, from above 41% in 1999 to below 7% in 2010. Notably, this dramatic improvement did not involve the creation of any centralized asset management facilities but relied on the bank management and governance reforms. We find that ...


Resolution Of Bad Loan Problem: Bank-Level Evidence From A Low-Income Country, Abu S. Amin, Lucy Chernykh, Mahmood Osman Imam Jul 2014

Resolution Of Bad Loan Problem: Bank-Level Evidence From A Low-Income Country, Abu S. Amin, Lucy Chernykh, Mahmood Osman Imam

WCOB Faculty Publications

How do banks resolve a severe bad loan problem in a capital-constrained, low income country when a government bailout is not an option? We address this question by examining new evidence of a sharp decline in bad loan ratios in a panel of domestic banks in Bangladesh. On the aggregate level, the share of nonperforming loans in this market has dropped six fold, from above 41% in 1999 to below 7% in 2010. Notably, this dramatic improvement did not involve the creation of any centralized asset management facilities but relied on the bank management and governance reforms. We find that ...


On The Means Of Payment, Lester G. Telser Jun 2014

On The Means Of Payment, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

Economic Paradise: gold and free banking is the first topic. Paradise Lost: the Garden of Eden has a Serpent is the second topic. The third topic is Fiat Money and the Monetary Authority. It describes some banking reforms proposed by Henry Simons writing during the 1930’s when the U.S. economy was in the Great Depression. The main lesson relevant today is the danger inherent in linking the means of payment to credit. Restoring required reserves on all forms of deposit in banks as well as in firms that offer checkable accounts follows from Simons’ proposals. The fourth topic ...


The Morality Of Fractional Reserve Banking, Jeffrey E. Haymond, Ryan T. Beach Jun 2014

The Morality Of Fractional Reserve Banking, Jeffrey E. Haymond, Ryan T. Beach

Jeffrey E. Haymond, Ph.D.

Modern central banking allows banks to initiate new money creation while holding only a small fraction as cash reserves for possible deposit withdrawal. When extended throughout the banking system, the process of "multiple deposit expansion" leads to inflationary pressures. Christian writers that consider the morality of fractional reserve banking often criticize it, not only because of the inflationary impact, but the impossibility of meeting all legal requirements: when money is loaned out, it cannot at the same time be redeemed as a demand deposit. Given the promise to return demand deposits and the impossibility to do so for all depositors ...