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2009

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Articles 1 - 30 of 89

Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Msc. Thesis Defence, Johansein L. Rutaihwa Mr. Nov 2009

Msc. Thesis Defence, Johansein L. Rutaihwa Mr.

Johansein Rutaihwa

No abstract provided.


The Effect Of A Collective Exchange Rate Adjustment On East Asian Exports, Mizanur Rahman, Kaliappa P. Kalirajan Nov 2009

The Effect Of A Collective Exchange Rate Adjustment On East Asian Exports, Mizanur Rahman, Kaliappa P. Kalirajan

Mizanur Rahman

This paper estimates long-run effects of a collective exchange rate adjustment on multilateral exports from China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The findings show that a 1 percent generalized appreciation of all East Asian exchange rates would reduce East Asian exports by about 3 per cent.


Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy Oct 2009

Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analysing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors – which can broadly be interpreted as world, regional, electronics and domestic economic cycles – capture a large proportion of the co-variation in the quarterly time series. The estimated factor model also explains well the observed fluctuations in real economic activity and price inflation, leading us to use it in forecasting Singapore’s business cycles. We find that the forecasts generated ...


Monetary Lessons From The Not-So-Great Depression, A Round-Robin Essay Debate With Scott Sumner, James Hamilton, And George Selgin, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel Sep 2009

Monetary Lessons From The Not-So-Great Depression, A Round-Robin Essay Debate With Scott Sumner, James Hamilton, And George Selgin, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.


Monetary Lessons From The Not-So-Great Depression, A Round-Robin Essay Debate With Scott Sumner, James Hamilton, And George Selgin, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel Aug 2009

Monetary Lessons From The Not-So-Great Depression, A Round-Robin Essay Debate With Scott Sumner, James Hamilton, And George Selgin, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

No abstract provided.


Firm Performance And Macro-Economic Variables, Ray Mcnamara, Keith Duncan Aug 2009

Firm Performance And Macro-Economic Variables, Ray Mcnamara, Keith Duncan

Ray McNamara

The purpose of this research is to predict the fundamental performance of a firm as measured by the rate of return on assets (ROA). The paper presents a model relating ROA to prior year ROA and to the level of activity in the economy. A principal components' analysis of thirty-three economic indicators was used. The variables used were drawn from the main theories/perspectives on macro economic behaviour. These were the Leading and Coincident Indicators perspective, Supply or Cost-Push Theories, Monetary Economics, and Savings-Investment theories. Three factors emerged and were labelled as an Output Factor, Interest Factor, and a Corporate ...


Firm Performance And Macro-Economic Variables, Ray Mcnamara, Keith Duncan Aug 2009

Firm Performance And Macro-Economic Variables, Ray Mcnamara, Keith Duncan

Keith Duncan

The purpose of this research is to predict the fundamental performance of a firm as measured by the rate of return on assets (ROA). The paper presents a model relating ROA to prior year ROA and to the level of activity in the economy. A principal components' analysis of thirty-three economic indicators was used. The variables used were drawn from the main theories/perspectives on macro economic behaviour. These were the Leading and Coincident Indicators perspective, Supply or Cost-Push Theories, Monetary Economics, and Savings-Investment theories. Three factors emerged and were labelled as an Output Factor, Interest Factor, and a Corporate ...


Review Of Good Money: Birmingham Button Makers, The Royal Mint, And The Beginnings Of Modern Coinage, 1775-1821 By George Selgin, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel Aug 2009

Review Of Good Money: Birmingham Button Makers, The Royal Mint, And The Beginnings Of Modern Coinage, 1775-1821 By George Selgin, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.


Review Of Good Money: Birmingham Button Makers, The Royal Mint, And The Beginnings Of Modern Coinage, 1775-1821 By George Selgin, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel Aug 2009

Review Of Good Money: Birmingham Button Makers, The Royal Mint, And The Beginnings Of Modern Coinage, 1775-1821 By George Selgin, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

No abstract provided.


Employment Fluctuations With Downward Wage Rigidity: The Role Of Worker Moral Hazard, Marcel Jansen, Jim Costain Aug 2009

Employment Fluctuations With Downward Wage Rigidity: The Role Of Worker Moral Hazard, Marcel Jansen, Jim Costain

Marcel Jansen

This paper studies the cyclical dynamics of Mortensen and Pissarides' (1994) model of job creation and destruction when workers' effort is not perfectly observable, as in Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984). An occasionally-binding no-shirking constraint truncates the real wage distribution from below, making firms' share of surplus weakly procyclical, and may thus amplify fluctuations in hiring. It may also cause a burst of inefficient firing at the onset of a recession, separating matches that no longer have sufficient surplus for incentive compatibility.

On the other hand, since marginal workers in booms know firms cannot commit to keep them in recessions, they ...


A Nation In Dilemma, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Aug 2009

A Nation In Dilemma, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

following the Global financial Crisis there were economic collapses in all the world. Sudan officials claimed that the country was immune from that epidemic. Such declaration were truly weird as it has been deeply affected from the first instant. That article presented many questions about the economic and social conditions and the eminent southern Sudan, Darfur crises.


Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand (Working Paper), James J. Forest, Paul Turner Aug 2009

Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand (Working Paper), James J. Forest, Paul Turner

James J Forest

This paper presents Monte Carlo simulations which compare the empirical performance of two alternative single equation estimators of the equilibrium parameters in a dynamic relationship. The estimators considered are Stock and Watson’s dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator and Bewley’s transformation of the general autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that the Bewley transformation produces a lower mean-square error as well as superior serial correlation properties even with lower truncation lags for the lagged variables included in the estimation equation. An application is then provided which examines the nature of the equilibrium relationship between aggregate US exports ...


Why Default On U.S. Treasuries Is Likely, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel Aug 2009

Why Default On U.S. Treasuries Is Likely, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.


Essays On Macroeconomics And Labor Markets: Understanding Idiosyncratic And Aggregate Shocks, Se Kyu Choi Aug 2009

Essays On Macroeconomics And Labor Markets: Understanding Idiosyncratic And Aggregate Shocks, Se Kyu Choi

Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations

This dissertation studies the importance of shocks in understanding economic outcomes, both at the aggregate and at the individual levels. The research in this document is separated into chapters that deal with somewhat dissimilar questions which are linked by the necessity to acknowledge and understand how unforeseeable shocks determine how agents make economic decisions. These shocks or innovations are a potential explanation for why, often similar economic actors face very different paths.

In Chapter 2, the interest lays in the determinants of different life-cycle fertility outcomes across educational groups. The chapter presents a model where individuals deal with idiosyncratic shocks ...


Why Default On U.S. Treasuries Is Likely, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel Jul 2009

Why Default On U.S. Treasuries Is Likely, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

No abstract provided.


The Impact Of Real Exchange Rate Flexibility On East Asian Exports, Mizanur Rahman Jul 2009

The Impact Of Real Exchange Rate Flexibility On East Asian Exports, Mizanur Rahman

Mizanur Rahman

This paper estimates the impact of intra-regional real exchange rate flexibility on East Asian exports. The hypothesis is that the impact would be negative for East Asian countries regardless of their exchange rate regimes. The results validate the hypothesis. The findings show that for Chinese exports the long-run effect is as much as that of a real appreciation of renminbi. By contrast, for Japanese exports the effect is three times larger than that of a real appreciation of the yen. The findings imply that a regional currency basket mechanism would lessen the adverse effect of exchange rate flexibility and engineer ...


Some Remarks On The Effects Of Active Labour Market Policies In Post-Transition, Joanna Tyrowicz, Piotr Wojcik Jul 2009

Some Remarks On The Effects Of Active Labour Market Policies In Post-Transition, Joanna Tyrowicz, Piotr Wojcik

Joanna Tyrowicz

Social cohesion is the principal goal behind active labour market policies (ALMPs), including those financed at supra-national level, like the European Social Fund. In this paper we use NUTS4 level data on the local labour market dynamics in an attempt to verify direct and indirect effects of ALMPs. We use data for 2000-2007 for Poland, while this period comprised both stark increases and reductions in the unemployment rates. Over this time also the financing of ALMPs has been increased considerably, transforming both to higher intensity of ALMPs (wider coverage) and higher extensiveness of these activities (increase in per treatment cost ...


Long Term Capital Management, Yogendra Sisodia Jul 2009

Long Term Capital Management, Yogendra Sisodia

Yogendra Sisodia

Long Term Capital Management Causes and Lessons Learned


Asian Currency Baskets: An Answer In Search Of A Question?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow Jul 2009

Asian Currency Baskets: An Answer In Search Of A Question?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers how a regional currency basket and the associated divergence indicators could be used in official surveillance. Recently, proponents of Asian currency baskets have referred to the role the ECU played in constructing exchange rate divergence indicators in Europe as evidence of the intrinsic usefulness of currency baskets for exchange rate monitoring. We show in this paper a number of problems with the use of regional currency-basket based divergence indicators. First, at a technical level, such indicators involve tracking regional exchange rates against a moving currency basket and can obscure underlying movements in bilateral exchange rates. Second, currency ...


Can A Representative-Agent Model Represent A Heterogeneous-Agent Economy, Sungbae An, Yongsung Chang, Sun-Bin Kim Jul 2009

Can A Representative-Agent Model Represent A Heterogeneous-Agent Economy, Sungbae An, Yongsung Chang, Sun-Bin Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

Accounting for observed fluctuations in aggregate employment, consumption, and real wage using the optimality conditions of a representative household requires preferences that are incompatible with economic priors. In order to reconcile theory with data, we construct a model with heterogeneous agents whose decisions are difficult to aggregate because of incomplete capital markets and the indivisible nature of labor supply. If we were to explain the model-generated aggregate time series using decisions of a stand-in household, such a household must have a nonconcave or unstable utility as is often found with the aggregate US data.


The Janjaweed And The Armed Movements Of Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Jun 2009

The Janjaweed And The Armed Movements Of Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The emergence of the Janjaweed as an armed force working with the government to suppress rebellions in Darfur region outraged the international community. They were marked by brutality, destruction, burning, killings and mass rapes. They were also described as Arabs. However, that was not the whole picture, no one observed the living conditions of the Arabs or how were they victims also as the other inhabitants of Darfur. No one also observed that they were used by the Ingaz government to execute the dirty work and bear the consequences. The Arab tribes however, also had other thoughts as they realized ...


Why Economic Performance Has Differed Between Brazil And China? A Comparative Analysis Of Brazilian And Chinese Macroeconomic Policy, Fernando Ferrari-Filho, Anthony Petros Spanakos Jun 2009

Why Economic Performance Has Differed Between Brazil And China? A Comparative Analysis Of Brazilian And Chinese Macroeconomic Policy, Fernando Ferrari-Filho, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper addresses a specific question: why has China grown so rapidly and Brazil not? To answer this question, it (i) establishes the basis for comparison between China and Brazil by contextualizing these countries within the BRICs concept, and (ii) presents a comparative analysis of Brazilian and Chinese reforms focusing only on the issue of macroeconomic policy, especially the monetary and exchange rate regimes, and its effect on growth.


Do Fiscal Responsibility Laws Matter? Evidence From Emerging Markets Suggests Not, John Thornton Jun 2009

Do Fiscal Responsibility Laws Matter? Evidence From Emerging Markets Suggests Not, John Thornton

John Thornton

This paper asks whether the adoption of fiscal responsibility laws (FRLs) has improved fiscal performance in nine emerging market economies, as measured by developments in their key fiscal balances. Examining these economies alone, their fiscal performance improved on average between the period before FLRs were adopted and the period after they were adopted. However, emerging market economies that did not adopt FLRs also experienced improvements in their fiscal performance around the same time. The finding suggests that the better fiscal performance in the nine emerging market economies resulted from something other than the adoption of FLRs.


Inflations, Hyperinflations, And Will We Have One?, Warren Coats May 2009

Inflations, Hyperinflations, And Will We Have One?, Warren Coats

Warren Coats

Reviews Zimbabwe's recent hyperinflation and contrast it with inflation prospects in the U.S.


Assessing The Viability Of Investment In Sudan (1979-2008), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed May 2009

Assessing The Viability Of Investment In Sudan (1979-2008), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Most developing and underdeveloped countries beside Sudan suffer from low levels of income in addition to the low savings that are result from the lack of public savings channels. Hence, investments depend on the individuals' abilities on savings where they are major motivating vehicle for economic activity due to its direct correlation with capital accumulation process that increases the productive capacity for the national economy and help to create job opportunities and achieving economic development. Subsequently, the importance of the investment comes from the effective role that can be practiced on the national product. Currently, Sudan endures severe economic crisis ...


Policies To Mitigate Procyclicality, John Kiff, Jochen Andritzky, Laura Kodres, Jodi Scarlata, Andrea Maechler, Pamela Madrid, Aditya Narain, Noel Sacasa May 2009

Policies To Mitigate Procyclicality, John Kiff, Jochen Andritzky, Laura Kodres, Jodi Scarlata, Andrea Maechler, Pamela Madrid, Aditya Narain, Noel Sacasa

John Kiff

The present crisis has focused attention on how procyclicality in the financial system can have outsized effects. This paper examines the reasons for this, specifically focusing on regulations or market practices that can accentuate economic cycles. In this light, the paper thus discusses the role of private sector risk management practices (including liquidity risk management), compensation practices, capital adequacy requirements and provisioning rules, deposit insurance regimes, and monetary policy actions. While recognizing various practical limitations, new policy responses are identified that could help to mitigate procyclicality.


Does Unemployment Decrease Cancer Mortality?, Benjamin Torres Galick May 2009

Does Unemployment Decrease Cancer Mortality?, Benjamin Torres Galick

Economics Honors Projects

Recent research indicates that healthier lifestyles during recessions decrease the most common U.S. mortalities, but not cancer. However, they combine specific cancer mortalities with different progressions into one, possibly obscuring cancer’s link to unemployment. This paper estimates a fixed-effects regression model on unemployment and the nine most prevalent cancers between 1988 and 2002 using state-level panel data. Five cancers and total cancer are procyclical, and suggest that unemployment affects both incidence and gestation for some cancers. Consistent with the medical literature, this paper contradicts previous economic research and suggests that behavioral factors significantly impact cancer mortality.


Will We Be Stimulated? Economists Sound Off On Obama’S Stimulus Package Reason, Nick Gillesie, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, Meg Mcardle May 2009

Will We Be Stimulated? Economists Sound Off On Obama’S Stimulus Package Reason, Nick Gillesie, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, Meg Mcardle

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.


Estimating The Macroeconomic Consequence Of 9/11, S. Brock Blomberg, Gregory Hess May 2009

Estimating The Macroeconomic Consequence Of 9/11, S. Brock Blomberg, Gregory Hess

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

We perform an empirical investigation to estimate the macroeconomic cost of September 11 attacks on the United States economy. We estimate the impact of the attacks to be approximately a 0.50 percentage point decrease in GDP growth or $60 billion. Our upper bound estimate of the impact of September 11 is approximately twice that or $125 billion.


A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis Of International Reserves, Yin-Wong Cheung, Hiro Ito May 2009

A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis Of International Reserves, Yin-Wong Cheung, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Using data from more than 100 economies for the period of 1975 to 2005, we conduct an extensive empirical analysis of the determinants of international reserve holdings. Four groups of determinants, namely, traditional macro variables, financial variables, institutional variables, and dummy variables that control for individual economies’ characteristics are considered. We find that the relationship between international reserves and their determinants is significantly different between developed and developing economies and is not stable over time. The estimation results indicate that, especially during the recent period, a developed economy tends to hold a lower level of international reserves than a developing ...