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2007

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Articles 1 - 30 of 34

Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Singapore's Exchange Rate Policy: Some Implementation Issues, Hwee Kwan Chow Dec 2007

Singapore's Exchange Rate Policy: Some Implementation Issues, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

Reflecting the small open nature of its economy, Singapore has adopted an exchange rate-centered monetary policy framework since 1981. The exchange rate regime in Singapore is an intermediate regime that follows the basket-band-crawl system. With this managed float system, the MAS has successfully deterred speculators from attacking the domestic currency for most of the past three decades. At the same time, the flexibility accorded by the managed float system aided Singapore in escaping from the 1997–1998 Asian crisis relatively unscathed. In order to advance our understanding of the hitherto successful operation of Singapore's exchange rate policy, we examine ...


La Política Monetaria Y Su Impacto Sobre Los Retornos Reales Del Mercado Bursátil Chileno, Jorge Muñoz, Claudio Recabal, Andres Acuña Nov 2007

La Política Monetaria Y Su Impacto Sobre Los Retornos Reales Del Mercado Bursátil Chileno, Jorge Muñoz, Claudio Recabal, Andres Acuña

Andrés A. Acuña

In this article we examined and tested the effects of monetary policy driven by Central Bank of Chile over the Chilean stock market's real returns for monthly data which spans between I.1996 and XII.2006. Based on a theoretical background, we analyzed the monetary policy from the monetarist and Keynesian points of view, their schemes and economics results. Once we analyzed the stock market in detail, from a sectorial perspective, we applied a GARCH (1, 1) model as a framework, in order to measure the impact that monetary policy has over the Chilean stock market's real returns ...


A Monetary Policy Framework For Sudan, Warren Coats Oct 2007

A Monetary Policy Framework For Sudan, Warren Coats

Warren Coats

This short overview of the money supply process and the central bank's control of the money supply is tailored to the situation of Southern Sudan, now the independent country of South Sudan.


Distress During The Great Depression: The Illiquidity-Insolvency Debate Revisited, Gary Richardson Sep 2007

Distress During The Great Depression: The Illiquidity-Insolvency Debate Revisited, Gary Richardson

Gary Richardson

During the contraction from 1929 to 1933, the Federal Reserve System tracked changes in the status of all banks operating in the United States and determined the cause of each bank suspension. This essay analyzes chronological patterns in aggregate series constructed from that data. The analysis demonstrates both illiquidity and insolvency were substantial sources of bank distress. Periods of heightened distress were correlated with periods of increased illiquidity. Contagion via correspondent networks and bank runs propagated the initial banking panics. As the depression deepened and asset values declined, insolvency loomed as the principal threat to depository institutions.


Some Empirics On Economic Growth Under Heterogeneous Technology, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul Sep 2007

Some Empirics On Economic Growth Under Heterogeneous Technology, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new econometric approach to testing for economic growth convergence is overviewed. The method is applicable to panel data, involves a simple regression based one-sided t-test, and can be used to form a clustering algorithm to assess the existence of growth convergence clubs. The approach allows for heterogeneous technology, utilizes some new asymptotic theory for nonlinear dynamic factor models, and is easy to implement. Some background growth theory is given which shows the form of augmented Solow regression (ASR) equations in the presence of heterogeneous technology and explains sources of potential misspecification that can arise in conventional formulations of ASR ...


Check Is In The Mail: Correspondent Clearing And The Banking Panics Of The Great Depression, Gary Richardson Aug 2007

Check Is In The Mail: Correspondent Clearing And The Banking Panics Of The Great Depression, Gary Richardson

Gary Richardson

Weaknesses within the check-clearing system played a hitherto unrecognized role in the banking crises of the Great Depression. Correspondent check-clearing networks were vulnerable to counter-party cascades. Accounting conventions that overstated reserves available to corresponding institutions may have exacerbated the situation. The initial banking panic began when a correspondent network centered in Nashville collapsed, forcing over 100 institutions to suspend operations. As the contraction continued, additional correspondent systems imploded. The vulnerability of correspondent networks is one reason that banks that cleared via correspondents failed at higher rates than other institutions during the Great Depression.


Integracion Profunda En El Mercosur. Un Analisis En La Perspectiva De Paraguay, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz Jul 2007

Integracion Profunda En El Mercosur. Un Analisis En La Perspectiva De Paraguay, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

No abstract provided.


Introduction To Research Methodologies, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Jun 2007

Introduction To Research Methodologies, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

In this book, I introduce basics of research methodologies in Arabic language which I believe is an unprecedented step. The conceptions, research frameworks, sampling and some detailed methods are given in this text book. Moreover, some analytical statistical methods are introduced to give insights to researchers. Methods of writing the scientific reports and papers in addition to documentation of references and classifying the required logical process of a thesis are detailed in this text. I introduce this book that was published by the Africa International University in Khartoum, Sudan for the purpose of helping sub and post graduate university students ...


Role Of The Central Bank Of Iraq In Implimenting Monetary Policy, Warren Coats Jun 2007

Role Of The Central Bank Of Iraq In Implimenting Monetary Policy, Warren Coats

Warren Coats

Outlines the monetary policy regime in place in the Central Bank of Iraq and its operation following the replacement of the Baathist government in 2003


Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim, Wei Sun Jun 2007

Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim, Wei Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

Frankel and Wei (1994) developed and popularized a method for uncovering the implicit weights assigned to major international currencies constituting a currency basket. We extend the methodology in two dimensions: include regional competitive pressure and employ a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to overcome simultaneity bias. With these modifications, we confirm the prominent role of the US dollar in the exchange rate policy of East Asian economies beyond the short run. However, despite the high degree of commitment to nominal exchange rate stability prior to the crisis, fluctuations in most East Asian currencies are also significantly influenced by country specific shocks ...


A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps Jun 2007

A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps

Research Collection School Of Economics

Open-economy macroeconomics contains a monetary model in the Keynesian tradition that is deemed serviceable for analyzing the short run and a nonmonetary neoclassical model thought capable of handling the long run. But do the Keynesian and neoclassical models meet the challenges thrown out by the main events of the past few decades—the ’80s shock to Europe from the sharp increase of external real interest rates; the kind of speculative shock experienced in the U.S. and parts of northern Europe in the second half of the ’90s: the prospect of new industries emerging in the future with needs for ...


A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps Jun 2007

A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps

Research Collection School Of Economics

In open-economy macroeconomics there is a monetary model in the Keynesian tradition that is deemed serviceable for analyzing the short run and there is a nonmonetary neoclassical theory thought capable of handling the long run. But do the Keynesian and neoclassical models meet the challenges thrown out by the main events of the past few decades¡ªthe '80s shock to Europe taking the form of an external jump in real interest rates; the sort of shock experienced in the U.S. and parts of northern Europe in the second half of the '90s: the emerging prospect of new industries in ...


Distance To Frontier And The Big Swings Of The Unemployment Rate: What Room Is Left For Monetary Policy?, Hian Teck Hoon, Kong Weng Ho Jun 2007

Distance To Frontier And The Big Swings Of The Unemployment Rate: What Room Is Left For Monetary Policy?, Hian Teck Hoon, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper builds upon Hoon and Phelps (1992, 1997) to ask how much of the evolution of the unemployment rate over several decades in country can be explained by real factors in an equilibrium model of the natural rate where country's productivity growth depends upon its distance from the world's technological leader. One motivating contemporary example includes the evolution of unemployment rates in Europe as it recovered from the second world war and caught up technologically to the US. Another example that may be less familiar to many people is Singapore (the second fastest growing economy from 1960 ...


A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps Jun 2007

A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps

Research Collection School Of Economics

Open-economy macroeconomics contains a monetary model in the Keynesian tradition that is deemed serviceable for analyzing the short run and a nonmonetary neoclassical model thought capable of handling the long run. But do the Keynesian and neoclassical models meet the challenges thrown out by the main events of the past few decades? We first indicate that the effects of these shocks on the open economy are not well captured by either the standard Keynesian model or the standard neoclassical theory. Next we provide a careful development of a nonmonetary model of the equilibrium path of the real exchange rate, share ...


Regional And International Market Integration Of A Small Open Economy, Cesar M. Rodriguez, Sebastian Fossati, Fernando Lorenzo May 2007

Regional And International Market Integration Of A Small Open Economy, Cesar M. Rodriguez, Sebastian Fossati, Fernando Lorenzo

Cesar M. Rodriguez

This paper studies the relationship between a set of commodity prices in a small open economy like Uruguay and the corresponding international and regional prices. The empirical methodology used is the multivariate cointegration procedure based on maximum likelihood methods introduced by Johansen (1988) as well as estimations of half-life persistence indicators. In the case of cereals, the evidence suggests strong market integration between domestic and regional markets and, to some extent, also to international markets. Therefore, directly or indirectly, domestic prices are connected with the efficient price signal. Results for beef indicate strong market integration between the domestic market and ...


Financial Liberalization And Monetary Policy Cooperation In East Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter N. Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan May 2007

Financial Liberalization And Monetary Policy Cooperation In East Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter N. Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

As the countries in East Asia embark on financial liberalization, a key issue that confronts policymakers is the greater complexity of risks that is injected into the financial system. In particular, capital account liberalization may potentially increase the vulnerability of individual countries to external financial shocks. This paper advocates the optimally cascading of financial liberalization that is consistent across three dimensions: extent of domestic financial liberalization; the degree of exchange rate flexibility; and the scope of capital account liberalization. Unless the process of liberalization is properly managed, it could provoke destabilizing capital flows and lead to volatile exchange rates. Smooth ...


Further Evidence On Revenue Decentralization And Inflation, John Thornton Apr 2007

Further Evidence On Revenue Decentralization And Inflation, John Thornton

John Thornton

Results from a panel regression study of 19 OECD member countries suggest that when the measure of revenue decentralization is limited to the revenues over which sub-national governments have full autonomy, its impact on inflation is not statistically significant.


Asian Currency Baskets: A Useful Surveillance Tool?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow Mar 2007

Asian Currency Baskets: A Useful Surveillance Tool?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers whether an intra-regional currency basket and the associated divergence indicators could play a useful role in official exchange rate surveillance. Recently, proponents of an Asian currency basket have referred to the role the European Currency Unit played in constructing exchange rate divergence indicators as evidence of the usefulness of intra-regional currency baskets for exchange rate monitoring. The paper shows that such indicators have a number of features that can lead to them obscuring underlying changes in exchange rates and that the signals they emit will often be difficult to interpret. In addition, the use of regional currency ...


An Analysis Of Attendance At Major League Baseball Spring Training Games, Michael R. Donihue, David Findlay, Peter Newberry Feb 2007

An Analysis Of Attendance At Major League Baseball Spring Training Games, Michael R. Donihue, David Findlay, Peter Newberry

Faculty Scholarship

This paper examines the determinants of game-day attendance during Major League Baseball’s 2002 spring training season in Florida. Our model of game-day attendance includes location, quality of game, and time and weather variables. A censored Tobit estimation procedure is used to estimate our model. Our results indicate that the quality of the game, average ticket price, and several location-specific factors affect attendance. Specifically, our results suggest that changes in income have no effect on attendance while increases in ticket prices cause reductions in attendance. Furthermore, the estimated price elasticity of demand for Major League Baseball during the spring training ...


An Analysis Of Attendance At Major League Baseball Spring Training Games, Michael R. Donihue, David Findlay, Peter Newberry Jan 2007

An Analysis Of Attendance At Major League Baseball Spring Training Games, Michael R. Donihue, David Findlay, Peter Newberry

Michael R Donihue

This paper examines the determinants of game-day attendance during Major League Baseball’s 2002 spring training season in Florida. Our model of game-day attendance includes location, quality of game, and time and weather variables. A censored Tobit estimation procedure is used to estimate our model. Our results indicate that the quality of the game, average ticket price, and several location-specific factors affect attendance. Specifically, our results suggest that changes in income have no effect on attendance while increases in ticket prices cause reductions in attendance. Furthermore, the estimated price elasticity of demand for Major League Baseball during the spring training ...


Konwergencja Bezrobocia W Polsce W Latach 1999-2006, Joanna Tyrowicz Jan 2007

Konwergencja Bezrobocia W Polsce W Latach 1999-2006, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

W artykule analizie poddana została dynamika stóp bezrobocia na poziomie powiatów w Polsce w latach 1999-2006. Wykorzystano miesięczne dane rejestrowe. Celem badania jest zweryfikowanie, do jakiego stopnia zachodzą procesy konwergencji regionalnych stóp bezrobocia. Zbadana została zarówno konwergencja typu beta, czyli zależność między dynamiką stopy bezrobocia a jej poziomem wyjściowym, jak i konwergencja typu sigma polegająca na analizie dyspersji rozkładu i jej zmian w czasie. Zastosowane zostały również metody pozwalające zbadać dynamikę pełnego rozkładu analizowanej zmiennej – macierze przejścia oraz nieparametryczna metoda estymacji jądrowej. Macierze przejścia pozwalają określić prawdopodobieństwo z jakim w powiatach stopa bezrobocia utrzyma się na stałym poziomie, wzrośnie lub ...


Optimality And Synchronicity - Where Do We Stand? Oca Theory And Its Empirical Application For Emu, Joanna Tyrowicz Jan 2007

Optimality And Synchronicity - Where Do We Stand? Oca Theory And Its Empirical Application For Emu, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

Should Poland join EMU? The answer to this question has already been determined by both economists and politicians - by joining EU Poland has agreed to eventually join EMU, which barely any serious economists find to be harmful to our economy. However, the moment of joining the currency union has not been determined and its choice is largely left to the decision of Polish policy makers. Obviously, there are some costs to entering the currency union, as well as some benefits. However, since both the process of accessing and the very participation in the EMU are dynamic in nature, the path ...


Podmioty Ekonomii Społecznej A Perspektywy Rozwojowe Polski 2007-2013, Joanna Tyrowicz Jan 2007

Podmioty Ekonomii Społecznej A Perspektywy Rozwojowe Polski 2007-2013, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

No abstract provided.


اقتصاد فساد: بررسی شواھد تجربی و نظری, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan Jan 2007

اقتصاد فساد: بررسی شواھد تجربی و نظری, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

Prof. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

No abstract provided.


Individual Consumption Risk And The Welfare Cost Of Business Cycles, Massimiliano De Santis Jan 2007

Individual Consumption Risk And The Welfare Cost Of Business Cycles, Massimiliano De Santis

Massimiliano De Santis

No abstract provided.


Monetary Policy Issues In Post Conflict Economies, Warren Coats Jan 2007

Monetary Policy Issues In Post Conflict Economies, Warren Coats

Warren Coats

Post conflict environments differ considerably depending on the factors that started and brought conflict to an end, the extent of damage to infrastructure and institutions, and the nature of post conflict governance. Many post conflict countries suffer from ethnic and/or religious divisions and animosities deepened by civil war (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq). Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, all post conflict territories that have received assistance with their reconstruction from international financial institutions have sought to establish or reestablish market based economies to varying degrees. Most had relatively highly centralized economies prior to the conflict. Thus ...


Saving, Investment And Capital Mobility In African Countries, John Thornton, Olumuyiwa S. Adedeji Jan 2007

Saving, Investment And Capital Mobility In African Countries, John Thornton, Olumuyiwa S. Adedeji

John Thornton

Recently developed panel co-integration techniques are applied to data for six African countries to test the Feldstein–Horioka approach to measuring capital mobility. The results suggest three conclusions: savings and investment in panel data are non-stationary series and they are co-integrated; capital was relatively mobile in the African countries during 1970–2000, with estimated savings–retention ratios of 0.73 (FMOLS), 0.45 (DOLS), 0.51 (DOLS with heterogeneity) and 0.39 (DOLS with cross-sectional dependence effects); and there was a marked drop in the savings–retention ratio from 1970–85 to 1986–2000. The results could be interpreted as ...


Fiscal Decentralization And Economic Growth Reconsidered, John Thornton Jan 2007

Fiscal Decentralization And Economic Growth Reconsidered, John Thornton

John Thornton

Recent studies examining the relation between fiscal decentralization and economic growth have failed to take account of the extent of the independent taxing powers available to sub-national governments and thus have substantially overstated the degree of effective decentralization. Results from a cross section study of 19 OECD member countries suggest that when the measure of fiscal decentralization is limited to the revenues over which sub-national governments have full autonomy, its impact on economic growth is not statistically significant.


The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Emerging Market Economies, John Thornton Jan 2007

The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Emerging Market Economies, John Thornton

John Thornton

A standard Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (q,v) model is employed to construct a measure of monthly intlation uncertainty in 12 emerging market economies, and the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is examined using Granger causality tests. The results suggest that higher inflation rates increased inflation uncertainty in all the economies, providing strong support for the Friedman hypothesis. The evidence on the effect of inflation uncertainty on average monthly inflation is more mixed, with increased inflation uncertainty leading to lower average inflation in Colombia. Israel. Mexico, and Turkey, consistent with the Holland hypothesis, but to higher average intlation in ...


Death And Taxes, Including Inflation: The Public Versus Economists, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel Jan 2007

Death And Taxes, Including Inflation: The Public Versus Economists, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

Inflation worries the general public much more than it does the economics profession, and economists remain perplexed as to exactly why. The costs that concern economists are inflation’s deadweight loss. But that is only a part of the losses that concern the public, because inflation simultaneously transfers some of people’s income into the hands of government. The fact that the seigniorage tax may pay for programs they favor is a separate issue. Moreover, unlike income and other taxes, which people in democratic countries may think they have some control over through voting, seigniorage appears utterly arbitrary. In fact ...