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2006

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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

A Mathematical Regression Of The U.S. Gross Private Domestic Investment 1959-2001, Byron E. Bell Sep 2006

A Mathematical Regression Of The U.S. Gross Private Domestic Investment 1959-2001, Byron E. Bell

Byron E. Bell

SUMMARY OF PROJECT What did I do? A study of the role the U.S. stock markets and money markets have possibly played in the Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI) of the United States from the year 1959 to the year 2001 and I created a Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM).


Assessment Of Capital Returns And Economics Of Investment In Khartoum Stock Exchange Market, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Aug 2006

Assessment Of Capital Returns And Economics Of Investment In Khartoum Stock Exchange Market, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Financial markets in a country are parts of modern economic systems and have definite impacts of its economic performance. However, in an underdeveloped economic structure there can be other targets o hidden activities for them. Such assumptions are provoked under totalitarian economic systems that impose cartel monopolies in a autocratic compradorism that own most of the companies and their stocks. The institutional structure of the prevailing economic system avails negative cost/benefits dealings to continue unaffected as the main profits have to come from other resources, e.g., money laundry. The private sector has to be monopolized in order to ...


Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending In Real Time?, Dean D. Croushore Jul 2006

Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending In Real Time?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

In 1993, the Philadelphia Fed undertook a project to develop a real-time data set for macroeconomists, who can use these data in many ways — for example, when analyzing indexes of consumer confidence. existing research indicates that consumer-confidence measures, though highly correlated with future spending, do not improve forecasts of future spending. but these studies used revised data that were not available to forecasters at the time they made their forecasts. In this article, Dean Croushore uses the real-time data set to investigate an important question: Does using data available to forecasters at the time — that is, real-time data — make measures ...


Non-Fundamental Expectations And Economic Fluctuations: Evidence From Professional Forecasts, Keen Meng Choy, Kenneth Leong, Anthony S. Tay Jun 2006

Non-Fundamental Expectations And Economic Fluctuations: Evidence From Professional Forecasts, Keen Meng Choy, Kenneth Leong, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is theoretically possible that non-fundamental idiosyncratic shocks to agents’ rational expectations are a source of economic fluctuations. Studies using data on consumer and investor sentiment suggest that this is indeed an important source of fluctuations. We present the results of a study that uses forecasts from professional forecasters to extract non-fundamental shocks to expectations. In contrast to previous studies, we show that non-fundamental expectations are not a significant source of output fluctuations, although such shocks contributed to inflation.


Growth Accounting For A Follower-Economy In A World Of Ideas: The Example Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon Jun 2006

Growth Accounting For A Follower-Economy In A World Of Ideas: The Example Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we take another approach to accounting for the sources of Singapore’s economic growth by being explicit about the channels through which Singapore, as a technological follower, benefits from international R&D spillovers. Taking into account the channels through which technology developed in the G5 countries diffuses to technological followers, we show that 57.5 percent of Singapore’s real GDP per worker growth rate over the 1970-2002 period is due to multifactor productivity growth. In particular, about 52 percent of the growth is accounted for by an increase in the effectiveness of accessing ideas developed by ...


Inflation Monitor, Muhammad Arby, Fida Hussain, Safdar Khan May 2006

Inflation Monitor, Muhammad Arby, Fida Hussain, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Although inflationary pressures persisted in the economy for the second year in a row, the headline inflation fell to 7.6 percent year-on-year in June 2006 that was 1 percentage point less than inflation in corresponding month last year.1 The inflation containment was more visible in the last six months of FY06 as compared to first six months (Jul 05 to Dec 05): the average CPI inflation during the first half of the year was 8.4 percent which declined to 7.4 percent in the second half primarily due to fall in food inflation. Inflation measured by ...


Monetary Policy In Iran: The Challenge Of Reducing Inflation, Leo Bonato, Abdelali Jbili May 2006

Monetary Policy In Iran: The Challenge Of Reducing Inflation, Leo Bonato, Abdelali Jbili

Leo Bonato

The conduct of monetary policy in an oil economy with a managed floating exchange rate regime can be challenging in an environment of fiscal dominance and incomplete transition to a market economy. The Five-Year Development Plans provide a natural benchmark against which to assess monetary policy performance in Iran. Price stability has proved elusive, with liquidity growth targets constantly exceeded by a large margin. The paper examines the reasons behind these results and, based on the lessons that can be drawn from the literature and the international experience, makes some proposals on how to improve on this record. Although fiscal ...


Review Essay On The Politically Incorrect Guide To American History By Thomas E. Woods, Jr., Jeffrey Rogers Hummel Apr 2006

Review Essay On The Politically Incorrect Guide To American History By Thomas E. Woods, Jr., Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.


Assessment Of Capital Returns And Economics Of Investment In Khartoum Stock Exchange Market, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Mar 2006

Assessment Of Capital Returns And Economics Of Investment In Khartoum Stock Exchange Market, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Financial markets in a country are parts of modern economic systems and have definite impacts of its economic performance. However, in an underdeveloped economic structure there can be other targets o hidden activities for them. Such assumptions are provoked under totalitarian economic systems that impose cartel monopolies in a autocratic compradorism that own most of the companies and their stocks. The institutional structure of the prevailing economic system avails negative cost/benefits dealings to continue unaffected as the main profits have to come from other resources, e.g., money laundry. The private sector has to be monopolized in order to ...


Globalization & Nationalism: A Recipe For Terror, Cari Bourette, Daniel Reader Mar 2006

Globalization & Nationalism: A Recipe For Terror, Cari Bourette, Daniel Reader

Cari Bourette

Nationalism appears to be part of the human condition; it may well be related to the human tendency toward tribalism. Whatever the case, nationalism appears to be a permanent feature on the global landscape. Globalization, while not a new phenomenon by any means, seems to be having a tremendous dilutory effect on the sovereignty of states; it now appears to be carrying the assault to the cultural frontiers of nationalism. Unlike the Westphalian constructs, however, nations will not so easily succumb. There is a greater inherent resistance to change in nations; the only historically effective method has been outright eradication ...


Central Asia's Transition After Fifteen Years: Growth And Policy Choices, Malcolm Dowling, Ganeshan Vignaraja Feb 2006

Central Asia's Transition After Fifteen Years: Growth And Policy Choices, Malcolm Dowling, Ganeshan Vignaraja

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper presents a coherent and systematic analysis of the collapse and subsequent revival of the Central Asian Republics (CARs) since 1990. The focus is on the pattern of growth and structural change during the cycle of decline and subsequent revival in the CARs which have been inadequately analyzed in the literature on transition. The paper relates economic performance to initial conditions, country characteristics and policies. Within this framework, it proposes a simple typology of policies (including a new Type III set of policies on regional cooperation and industrial competitiveness) and relates them to the cycle of decline and revival ...


Central Asia: Mapping Future Prospects, Malcolm Dowling, Ganeshan Wignaraja Feb 2006

Central Asia: Mapping Future Prospects, Malcolm Dowling, Ganeshan Wignaraja

Research Collection School Of Economics

Central Asia has emerged as one of the world’s fastest growing regions since the late 1990s and has shown notable development potential. This is significant for a region comprising largely of small landlocked economies with no access to the sea for trade. Among the advantages, of the region are its high- priced commodities (oil, gas, cotton and gold), reasonable infrastructure and human capital as legacies of Soviet rule; and a strategic location between Asia and Europe. Furthermore, many Central Asian Republics (CARs) have embarked on market-oriented economic reforms to boost economic performance and private sector competitiveness. Central Asia: Mapping ...


The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 1, Spring 2006 Jan 2006

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 1, Spring 2006

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.


The Macroeconomy And Long-Term Interest Rates: An Examination Of Recent Treasury Yields, Hans W. Hardisty Jan 2006

The Macroeconomy And Long-Term Interest Rates: An Examination Of Recent Treasury Yields, Hans W. Hardisty

Gettysburg Economic Review

From 2001 to 2006, U.S. long-term interest rates have remained steady while the federal funds rate has both declined and increased, as Figure 1 shows. Historically, long term interest rates tend to respond to changes in short term rates, but recently this does not appear to be the case. Former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, recently dubbed this occurrence a “conundrum,” because no one can provide a distinct explanation concerning this phenomenon. There are several noteworthy incentives for why long-term yields should have increased from 2004 to 2006, but they have remained constant during this time period ...


Agent-Based Computational Modeling And Macroeconomics, Leigh Tesfatsion Jan 2006

Agent-Based Computational Modeling And Macroeconomics, Leigh Tesfatsion

Economics Publications

How should economists model the relationship between macroeconomic phenomena and microeconomic structure? Economists have been struggling to answer this question for decades. Nevertheless, the Walrasian equilibrium model devised by the nineteenth century French economist Leon Walras (1834-1910) still remains the fundamental paradigm that frames the way many economists think about this issue. Competitive models directly adopt the paradigm. Imperfectly competitive models typically adopt the paradigm as a benchmark of coordination success. Although often critiqued for its excessive abstraction and lack of empirical salience, the paradigm has persisted.


Dynamics Of Energy Consumption, Safdar Khan Dec 2005

Dynamics Of Energy Consumption, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Dynamics of Energy Consumption Pakistan has been facing severe imbalances in energy demand and supply for the last couple of decades. During early 1980s domestic supply of energy was fulfilling almost 86 percent of total domestic energy demand; a gap of 14 percent was being filled by imports. However, the demand – supply gap started increasing since then and reached to almost 47 percent by the year 2000 (see Figure S2.1).


Fdi And Growth: What Causes What?, Abdur Chowdhury, George Mavrotas Dec 2005

Fdi And Growth: What Causes What?, Abdur Chowdhury, George Mavrotas

Abdur R. Chowdhury

This paper examines the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth by using an innovative econometric methodology to study the direction of causality between the two variables. We apply our methodology, based on the Toda-Yamamoto test for causality, to time-series data covering the period 1969–2000 for three developing countries, namely Chile, Malaysia and Thailand, all of them major recipients of FDI with a different history of macroeconomic episodes, policy regimes and growth patterns. Our empirical findings clearly suggest that it is GDP that causes FDI in the case of Chile and not vice versa, while for both Malaysia and ...


Macro Determinants Of Total Factor Productivity In Pakistan, Safdar Khan Dec 2005

Macro Determinants Of Total Factor Productivity In Pakistan, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

No abstract provided.


How Society Makes Itself: The Evolution Of Political And Economic Institutions, Howard J. Sherman Dec 2005

How Society Makes Itself: The Evolution Of Political And Economic Institutions, Howard J. Sherman

HOWARD J SHERMAN

This radical account of the evolution of political, social, and economic institutions weaves together strands of anthropology, sociology, political science, history, and economics. In a highly readable text, Howard Sherman explains the interconnections of ideas and economic forces, and traces the evolution of social and economic institutions from primitive times to the present. Sherman focuses on the myth of "inevitable progress" in technology, and argues that it progresses only when social and economic institutions and dominant ideas encourage it to improve. He shows that throughout history technology, as a part of the economic forces, ebbs and flows to create or ...


Review Essay On The Politically Incorrect Guide To American History By Thomas E. Woods, Jr., Jeffrey Rogers Hummel Dec 2005

Review Essay On The Politically Incorrect Guide To American History By Thomas E. Woods, Jr., Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

No abstract provided.