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2004

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Articles 1 - 14 of 14

Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Constructing A Coincident Index Of Business Cycles Without Assuming A One-Factor Model, Roberto S. Mariano, Yasutomo Murasawa Oct 2004

Constructing A Coincident Index Of Business Cycles Without Assuming A One-Factor Model, Roberto S. Mariano, Yasutomo Murasawa

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Stock-Watson coincident index and its subsequent extensions assume a static linear one-factor structure for the component indicators. Such assumption is restrictive in practice, however, with as few as four indicators. In fact, such assumption is unnecessary if one defines a coincident index as an estimate of latent monthly real GDP. This paper considers VAR and factor models for latent monthly real GDP and other coincident indicators, and estimates the models using the observable mixed-frequency series. For US data, Schwartz’s Bayesian information criterion selects a two-factor model. The smoothed estimate of latent monthly real GDP is the proposed index.


A Var Analysis Of Singapore's Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Hwee Kwan Chow Sep 2004

A Var Analysis Of Singapore's Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Singapore economy has experienced greater business cycle fluctuations in recent years, being subject to recurrent shocks from the external environment. Given the extreme openness of the economy—Singapore’s export share of GDP is approximately 180%—it is not surprising that the main cause of the increase in economic volatility is a rise in the frequency and magnitude of exogenous shocks. These include the downswing in the global electronics industry in 1996–97, the Asian financial crisis in 1997–98, the burst of the information technology bubble in 2001, and the outbreak of the SARS respiratory disease in 2003 ...


Political Economy Of Evolution, Howard J. Sherman May 2004

Political Economy Of Evolution, Howard J. Sherman

HOWARD J SHERMAN

No abstract provided.


Do Macroeconomic Shocks Impact The Economic Efficiency Of Small Farmers? The Case Of Wetland Rice Farmers In Indonesia, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Helen H. Jensen, Dong Yan May 2004

Do Macroeconomic Shocks Impact The Economic Efficiency Of Small Farmers? The Case Of Wetland Rice Farmers In Indonesia, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Helen H. Jensen, Dong Yan

CARD Working Papers

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the efficiency of small farmers. We estimate single- and multiple-factor efficiency measures for Indonesian rice farmers in years before, during, and after the country's macroeconomic crisis. We find that productive efficiency declined by 7 to 22 percent during the crisis, largely because of a decline in technical efficiency and a relatively large volatility in efficiency (the coefficient of variation was larger by a factor of 1.87). Allocative efficiency, on the other hand, increased slightly and offset part of the decrease in technical efficiency. The magnitude of the impact on ...


From Hayek To Keynes: G.L.S. Shackle And Our Ignorance Of The Future, Greg Hill Jan 2004

From Hayek To Keynes: G.L.S. Shackle And Our Ignorance Of The Future, Greg Hill

Greg Hill

G.L.S. Shackle stood at the historic crossroads where the economics of Hayek and Keynes collided. Shackle fused these opposing lines of thought in a macroeconomic theory that draws Keynesian conclusions from Austrian premises. In Shackle’s scheme of thought, the power to imagine alternative courses of action releases decision makers from the web of predictable causation. But the continuous stream of spontaneous and unpredictable choices that originate in the subjective and disparate orientations of individual agents denies us the possibility of rational expectations, and therewith the logical coherence of market equilibrium through time.


Inflationary Performance In A Monetary Union With Large Wage-Setters, Lilia Cavallari Jan 2004

Inflationary Performance In A Monetary Union With Large Wage-Setters, Lilia Cavallari

Lilia Cavallari

No abstract provided.


Bank Lending And The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Under A Revised Basel Accord, Kevin T. Jacques, David Schirm Jan 2004

Bank Lending And The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Under A Revised Basel Accord, Kevin T. Jacques, David Schirm

Kevin T Jacques

No abstract provided.


Local Initiatives And Imf Policies In Quito, Ecuador, Dionissi Aliprantis Jan 2004

Local Initiatives And Imf Policies In Quito, Ecuador, Dionissi Aliprantis

University Avenue Undergraduate Journal of Economics

If we are to define development as an increase in the freedoms people enjoy, then we may move beyond structural adjustments and foreign investment as means to create wealth in Ecuador and Latin America. Although not conclusively documented one way or the other [13], microlending is a promising path towards development from this perspective. At the very least, microlending offers hope to a segment of the population that would otherwise be disenfranchised. In Quito, Ecuador, microlending programs are creating wealth and expanding freedoms in a manner consistent with capitalism, while a good deal of IMF policies extract wealth from the ...


Review Of Northern Naval Superiority And The Economics Of The American Civil War By David G. Surdam, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel Jan 2004

Review Of Northern Naval Superiority And The Economics Of The American Civil War By David G. Surdam, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.


Export Expansion And The Choice Of Export Mode - Is There Evidence Of Switching Over Time?, Ann Hodgkinson Jan 2004

Export Expansion And The Choice Of Export Mode - Is There Evidence Of Switching Over Time?, Ann Hodgkinson

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

Stage theory argues that firms expand exports incrementally and, in the process, pass through a series of increasingly more resource intensive export channels. This paper tests this hypothesis for NSW regional exporters in the period 1996/97 to2000/01. Consistent with other studies, we found general support for incremental export expansion, and that firms added more sophisticated export modes as commitment increased. However, they did not discard earlier modes in this process. One major contradiction to stage theory lay with ‘born global’ firms, which move immediately tohigh export ratios. A second more unexpected one lay with long term, intensiveexporters, which ...


The Structuralist Perspective On Real Exchange Rate, Share Price Level And Employment Path: What Room Is Left For Money?, Edmund S. Phelps, Hian Teck Hoon, Gylfi Zoega Jan 2004

The Structuralist Perspective On Real Exchange Rate, Share Price Level And Employment Path: What Room Is Left For Money?, Edmund S. Phelps, Hian Teck Hoon, Gylfi Zoega

Research Collection School Of Economics

The current sluggish performance of the US economy follows one of the more remarkable booms in modern history. The late 1990s was a period of simultaneous output and productivity growth,1 low unemployment and stable inflation, culminating in an unemployment rate of only 3.9% in the fourth quarter of the year 2000. The absence of rising inflation during this period came as a surprise to many since the level of the natural rate of unemployment was commonly estimated to be in the range of 5-6% by the mid 1990s. The non-inflationary boom, however, reminds one of another episode where ...


Forecasting The Global Electronics Cycle With Leading Indicators: A Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy Jan 2004

Forecasting The Global Electronics Cycle With Leading Indicators: A Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

Developments in the global electronics industry are typically monitored by tracking indicators that span a whole spectrum of activities in the sector. However, these indicators invariably give mixed signals at each point in time, thereby hampering attempts at prediction. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between putative leading indicators representing expectations, orders, inventories and prices. The ability of the indicators to presage world semiconductor sales is first examined by Granger causality tests. Subsequently, an impulse response analysis confirms the leading qualities of ...


Macroeconomic And Financial Sector Comparison With Saarc And Asean Countries, Safdar Khan Dec 2003

Macroeconomic And Financial Sector Comparison With Saarc And Asean Countries, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Two distinct regional associations, SAARC and ASEAN, comprise over seventeen different economies of Asia. These economies differ from each other in terms of their age, size and economic performance. However, some comparisons can be drawn between these intra-regional economies on the basis of economic and financial performance for a uniform period of observation, spanning from 1990 to 2003.1 This chapter discusses the financial sector indicators of the SAARC and ASEAN countries under the framework of macroeconomic performance, with the objective of assessing the level of Pakistan’s performance in comparison with these countries.


Review Of Northern Naval Superiority And The Economics Of The American Civil War By David G. Surdam, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel Dec 2003

Review Of Northern Naval Superiority And The Economics Of The American Civil War By David G. Surdam, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

No abstract provided.