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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Credit, Sectoral Misallocation And Productivity Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis, Carlos Urrutia, Felipe Meza, Sangeeta Pratap Sep 2019

Credit, Sectoral Misallocation And Productivity Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis, Carlos Urrutia, Felipe Meza, Sangeeta Pratap

Carlos Urrutia

We study the relation between credit conditions, misallocation of resources, and productivity growth in a multi-sector model with financial frictions. In our framework, working capital constraints and borrowing limits create wedges between the marginal product of inputs and their relative prices, which we can map into distortions to the capital to labor ratio and to the use of intermediate goods. The distribution of these distortions across sectors and their changes over time affect aggregate TFP. We construct a novel dataset for the Mexican manufacturing activity that merges real and financial data at the 4-digit sectoral level and use our model ...


Pareto-Improving Transition To Fully Funded Pensions Under Myopia, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Marias H. Gestsson Mar 2019

Pareto-Improving Transition To Fully Funded Pensions Under Myopia, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Marias H. Gestsson

Joydeep Bhattacharya

Under dynamic efficiency, a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension scheme is often described as an “original sin”: It helps the current generation of retirees but hurts future generations because they are forced to save via a return-dominated scheme. Abandoning it is deemed welfare-improving but typically not for all generations. But what if agents are present-biased (hence, undersave for retirement) and the “paternalistically motivated forced savings” component of a PAYG scheme motivated its existence in the first place? This paper shows it is possible to transition from such a PAYG scheme on to a higher return, mandated fully-funded scheme; yet, no generation is ...


Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith May 2018

Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

There is a growing interest in allowing for asymmetry in the density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. 
In multivariate time series, this can be achieved with a copula model, where both serial and cross-sectional dependence is captured by a copula function, and the margins are nonparametric. Yet most existing copulas cannot capture heteroskedasticity well, which is a feature of many economic and financial time series. To do so, we propose a new copula created by the inversion of a multivariate unobserved component stochastic volatility model, and show how to estimate it using Bayesian methods. We fit the copula model to real-time ...


Are Consumers As Constrained As Hens Are Confined? Brain Activations And Behavioral Choices After Informational Influence, Alex J. Francisco, Amanda S. Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson L. Lusk, Brandon Mcfadden, Jared M. Bruce, Robin L. Aupperle, Seung-Lark Lim May 2018

Are Consumers As Constrained As Hens Are Confined? Brain Activations And Behavioral Choices After Informational Influence, Alex J. Francisco, Amanda S. Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson L. Lusk, Brandon Mcfadden, Jared M. Bruce, Robin L. Aupperle, Seung-Lark Lim

John Crespi

In 2008, California passed Proposition 2, specifying confinement space for certain farm animals. Proposition 2 went into full effect January 2015 and has significant implications for egg production in California and possibly even interstate commerce. We examined the influence of promotional videos aired during the campaign on consumers’ willingness-to-pay for eggs produced in a more open production system (i.e., cage-free, free range) and corresponding neurofunctional activations during decisions. Forty-six participants (24 females), aged 18–55 years (M=29.65), were enrolled and performed a food decision-making task during fMRI scanning. In each decision, two options of identical one dozen ...


The Behavioral And Neuroeconomics Of Food And Brand Decisions: Executive Summary, Amanda Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson Lusk May 2018

The Behavioral And Neuroeconomics Of Food And Brand Decisions: Executive Summary, Amanda Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson Lusk

John Crespi

This executive summary provides the rationale for and summary of the articles of this Special Edition of the Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization.


Price-Level Co-Movements Within Currency Unions: An Alternative Integration Metric, Gregory W. Whitten May 2018

Price-Level Co-Movements Within Currency Unions: An Alternative Integration Metric, Gregory W. Whitten

Prof. WHITTEN Gregory William

No abstract provided.


International Reserves And Rollover Risk, Javier Bianchi, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez Jan 2018

International Reserves And Rollover Risk, Javier Bianchi, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez

Leonardo Martinez

No abstract provided.


Why The World Needs A Reserve Asset With A Hard Anchor, Warren Coats, Dongsheng Di, Yuxuan Zhao Dec 2017

Why The World Needs A Reserve Asset With A Hard Anchor, Warren Coats, Dongsheng Di, Yuxuan Zhao

Warren Coats

From the 1970s, the global currency system has two features: the use of one or a few sovereign currencies as the global reserve asset and the floating exchange rate regime between major currencies.This paper points out that the costs of the dollar’s use as an international reserve currency exceed the benefits for both the US and the rest of the world. These costs include the exporting of American manufacturing as a byproduct of its current account deficit needed to supply its currency to the rest of the world. In addition to the detriment to trade from unpredictable exchange ...


Partial Disability And Labor Market Adjustment: The Case Of Spain, José Ignacio Silva, Judit Vall Oct 2017

Partial Disability And Labor Market Adjustment: The Case Of Spain, José Ignacio Silva, Judit Vall

José Ignacio Silva


Although partially disabled individuals in Spain are allowed to combine disability benefits with a job, the empirical evidence shows that the employment rate of this group of individuals is very low because they have a much lower job finding and a higher job separation rates than nondisabled workers. Moreover, a decomposition analysis of the equilibrium employment rate shows that the differences in the job finding rates explain 85 percent of the disabled employment gap. To explain these facts, we construct a labor market model with search intensity and matching frictions to identify the incentives and disincentives to work in Spain ...


Discretionary Policy And Multiple Equilibria In A New Keynesian Model, Volker Hahn Mar 2017

Discretionary Policy And Multiple Equilibria In A New Keynesian Model, Volker Hahn

Volker Hahn

We show that discretionary policy-making can lead to multiple rational-expectations equilibria where the central bank responds to inflation sentiments, which are not directly related to economic fundamentals. Some equilibria have favorable consequences for welfare, resulting in outcomes superior even to those achieved under timeless-perspective commitment. Moreover, we show that our framework can explain several moments of US data reasonably well. In particular, it provides an alternative explanation for the high degree of inflation persistence found in the data.


The Urban Density Premium Across Establishments, R. Jason Faberman, Matthew Freedman Apr 2016

The Urban Density Premium Across Establishments, R. Jason Faberman, Matthew Freedman

Matthew Freedman

We use longitudinal establishment data to estimate the urban density premium for U.S. establishments, controlling for observed establishment characteristics and dynamic establishment behavior. Consistent with previous studies, we find an elasticity of average establishment earnings with respect to metropolitan area population of 0.03, controlling for the endogeneity of location and establishment and metropolitan area characteristics. More importantly, we find that the estimated density premium is realized almost entirely at entry and is constant over an establishment’s life. We find little evidence that the endogenous entry or exit of establishments can account for any of the estimated density ...


Debt Dilution And Sovereign Default Risk, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez, Cesar Sosa Padilla Jan 2016

Debt Dilution And Sovereign Default Risk, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez, Cesar Sosa Padilla

Leonardo Martinez

No abstract provided.


Fiscal Rules And The Sovereign Default Premium, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez, Francisco Roch Jan 2016

Fiscal Rules And The Sovereign Default Premium, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez, Francisco Roch

Leonardo Martinez

No abstract provided.


An Estimated Open-Economy Dsge Model With Search-And-Matching Frictions: The Case Of Hungary, Istvan Konya, Zoltán Jakab Jan 2016

An Estimated Open-Economy Dsge Model With Search-And-Matching Frictions: The Case Of Hungary, Istvan Konya, Zoltán Jakab

Istvan Konya

This paper builds and estimates a mediumscale, small open economy DSGE model augmented with search-and-matching frictions in the labor market, and different wage setting behavior in new and existing jobs. The model is estimated using Hungarian data between 2001-2008. We find that: (i) the inclusion of matching frictions significantly improves the model’s empirical fit; (ii) the extent of new hires wage rigidity is quantitatively important for keymacro variables; (iii) labor market shocks do not play an important role in inflation dynamics, but the structure of the labor market influences the monetary transmission mechanism.


Holes In The Dike: The Global Savings Glut, U.S. House Prices And The Long Shadow Of Banking Deregulation, Mathias Hoffmann, Iryna Stewen Jan 2016

Holes In The Dike: The Global Savings Glut, U.S. House Prices And The Long Shadow Of Banking Deregulation, Mathias Hoffmann, Iryna Stewen

Mathias Hoffmann

We show how capital inflows into and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the recent boom and bust in U.S. housing prices. Interstate banking deregulation during the 1980s cast a long shadow: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to aggregate U.S. capital inflows during 1990-2012. Capital inflows relaxed the value-at-risk constraints of geographically diversified (‘integrated’) U.S. banks more than those of local banks. Therefore, integrated banks absorbed a larger share of capital inflows and expanded mortgage lending more. This drove up housing prices.


Asymmetric Forecast Densities For U.S. Macroeconomic Variables From A Gaussian Copula Model Of Cross-Sectional And Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Shaun Vahey Dec 2015

Asymmetric Forecast Densities For U.S. Macroeconomic Variables From A Gaussian Copula Model Of Cross-Sectional And Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Shaun Vahey

Michael Stanley Smith

Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this paper, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations ...


Designing Monetary Policy Committees, Volker Hahn Dec 2015

Designing Monetary Policy Committees, Volker Hahn

Volker Hahn

We integrate monetary policy-making by committee into a New Keynesian model to assess the consequences of the committee's institutional characteristics for inflation, output, and welfare. Our analysis delivers the following results. First, we demonstrate that transparency about the committee's future composition is typically harmful. Second, we show that short terms for central bankers lead to effective inflation stabilization at the expense of comparably high output variability. Third, larger committees generally allow for more efficient stabilization of inflation but possibly for less efficient output stabilization. Fourth, large committees and short terms are therefore socially desirable if the weight on ...


Exploring The Transformative Potential Of The E3+3 Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action With Iran For Improving The Iranian Economy And Its Reintegration Into The Global System, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan Dec 2015

Exploring The Transformative Potential Of The E3+3 Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action With Iran For Improving The Iranian Economy And Its Reintegration Into The Global System, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

Prof. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

This is background note for my presentation at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt.


How Does Labour Market Structure Affect The Response Of Economies To Shocks?, Istvan Konya, Aurelijus Dabusinskas, Stephen Millard Nov 2015

How Does Labour Market Structure Affect The Response Of Economies To Shocks?, Istvan Konya, Aurelijus Dabusinskas, Stephen Millard

Istvan Konya

The recent crisis in the Eurozone has led to much discussion about the structure of labour markets in different Eurozone economies. In particular, there has been much talk of the need for structural labour market reform in the Eurozone periphery. But, there are many aspects of labour market structure – eg, wage flexibility, flexibility in hiring and firing, benefits, etc – and it is not clear a priori which aspects really matter. In this paper, we analyse how cross-country differences in labour market characteristics – in particular, wage and employment rigidities – shape the response of different countries to a variety of macroeconomic shocks ...


Bank Solvency And Economic Activity, Lester G. Telser Oct 2015

Bank Solvency And Economic Activity, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

This note explains why bank solvency is extremely important in a modern economy. Although banks provide many services including loans to business and households, these are secondary. Provision of the means of payment is primary. Every transaction in a modern economy involves a means of payment offered by the buyer and acceptable to the seller.


Economic Wealth And Social Welfare: A Longitudinal Analysis Of Transnational Well-Being, Kelly Brooke Martin Oct 2015

Economic Wealth And Social Welfare: A Longitudinal Analysis Of Transnational Well-Being, Kelly Brooke Martin

KELLY B MARTIN

Macro changes in the financial arena have prompted ongoing research focused on global economic trends. As America emerges from an era of stagnant wages, rising unemployment, and growing class stratification it is necessary to explore differences in cross-national socioeconomic behavior to address the changing needs of our country. Many studies attempt to describe statistical correlations between economic wealth and social well-being domestically and abroad by utilizing methodological perspectives that do not account for longitudinal change. To address the gap in existing research, this study seeks to measure variations in econometric indicators between the U.S. and Nordic countries to further ...


Lecciones De Economía Para No Economistas, Sergio A. Berumen Aug 2015

Lecciones De Economía Para No Economistas, Sergio A. Berumen

Sergio A. Berumen

Este libro estudia la totalidad de los contenidos de los cursos de Introducción a la Economía y de los primeros cursos de Microeconomía y Macroeconomía de los grados y las licenciaturas en Ciencias Sociales.


Chaotic Behavior In Monetary Systems: Comparison Among Different Types Of Taylor Rule, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Wenjun Zhang Dr., Jiling Cao Prof. Aug 2015

Chaotic Behavior In Monetary Systems: Comparison Among Different Types Of Taylor Rule, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Wenjun Zhang Dr., Jiling Cao Prof.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

The aim of the present study is to detect the chaotic behavior in the monetary economic relevant dynamical system. The study employs three different forms of Taylor rules: current, forward and backward looking. The result suggests the existence of the chaotic behavior in all three systems. In addition, the results strongly represent that using expectations in policy rule especially rational expectation hypothesis can increase the complexity of the system and leads to more chaotic behavior.


Ex-Ante Evaluation Of Public-Private Partnerships: Macroeconomic Analysis, Junxiao Liu, Peter Love, Brad Carey, Jim Smith, Michael Regan Aug 2015

Ex-Ante Evaluation Of Public-Private Partnerships: Macroeconomic Analysis, Junxiao Liu, Peter Love, Brad Carey, Jim Smith, Michael Regan

Michael Regan

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are currently a popular approach for governments to procure social and economic infrastructure. The macroeconomic environment plays a critical role and influences the factors that can lead to the successful delivery of a PPP project. Despite the importance of the macroeconomic environment, limited attention has been paid to ex-ante (that is, before the event, or forecast) evaluation. A review of the normative literature was undertaken, aiming to derive key performance indicators (KPIs) of PPP success. The KPIs were validated by using a vector error correction model. It is suggested that the developed KPIs can be used to ...


Chaotic Behavior In Monetary Systems: Comparison Among Different Types Of Taylor Rule, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Wenjun Zhang, Jiling Cao Jul 2015

Chaotic Behavior In Monetary Systems: Comparison Among Different Types Of Taylor Rule, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Wenjun Zhang, Jiling Cao

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

The aim of the present study is to detect the chaotic behavior in monetary economic relevant dynamical system. The study employs three different forms of Taylor rules: current, forward, and backward looking. The result suggests the existence of the chaotic behavior in all three systems. In addition, the results strongly represent that using expectations in policy rule especially rational expectation hypothesis can increase complexity of the system and leads to more chaotic behavior.


Ii Keynes On Safe Assets, Lester G. Telser Jul 2015

Ii Keynes On Safe Assets, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

Only the monetary authorities can create and issue safe assets. A safe asset is not offset by any liability so no private entity can issue it. The nominal value of a safe asset is fixed and it usually offers no nominal yield. The rationale for safe assets can be traced to the factors underlying the Keynesian liquidity trap. Since late 2008 the Fed has paid 0.25 percent on member bank reserves held in deposits at the Fed. This is part of the program known as ‘quantitative easing.’ It may have presented collapse of the U.S. banking system.


Respuestas Exámen, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz Jul 2015

Respuestas Exámen, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

No abstract provided.


The Intuition Behind Wallace Neutrality, Richard H. Serlin Jul 2015

The Intuition Behind Wallace Neutrality, Richard H. Serlin

Richard H. Serlin

Wallace neutrality is a term that, as far as I know, was coined by University of Michigan economist Miles Kimball. It refers to the seminal model of Neil Wallace in "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations", American Economic Review, June 1981. In Wallace's model, open market operations have no effect on any asset prices, including money (no effect on inflation). This is a shocking result, and it cries out for how and why. Intuitively, how and why can this possibly happen? However, like so many modern models, it's extremely difficult to see the intuition behind the wall of ...


Exchange Rate 'Overshooting': An Empirical Study Of Bangladesh And India, Mohammad Ali Tareq, Fazle Rabbi Jul 2015

Exchange Rate 'Overshooting': An Empirical Study Of Bangladesh And India, Mohammad Ali Tareq, Fazle Rabbi

Fazle Rabbi

Exchange rates are difficult to forecast because the market is continually reacting to unexpected events or news. Even in the absence of any major news, exchange rates adjust through the day as foreign exchange dealers manage their inventories and respond to trades with others who may be better informed. The role of exchange rate changes in eliminating international trade imbalances suggests that we should expect countries with current trade surpluses to have an appreciating currency, whereas countries with trade deficits should have depreciating currencies. Such exchange rate changes would lead to changes in international relative prices that would work to ...


Cruzar El Río Sintiendo Las Piedras. Trece Historias De Éxito, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz Jul 2015

Cruzar El Río Sintiendo Las Piedras. Trece Historias De Éxito, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

En el periodo 1980-1998 el ingreso por habitante del Paraguay creció a una tasa anual promedio de 1,1%. En esas condiciones, un paraguayo medio debía esperar 65 años para ver sus ingresos duplicarse. Sin embargo, las reformas económicas parciales iniciadas en el año 2003 contribuyeron a que el ingreso por habitante crezca a un promedio anual de 2,8% en el periodo 2003 y 2014, lo que ayudó a recortar el plazo de duplicación del ingreso por habitante a tan solo 25 años ¿Cómo se logra este tipo de resultados? ¿Esas reformas son suficientes para sostener el crecimiento de ...