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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

On Macroeconomic Nowcasting And Forecasting With Satellite Imagery And Convolutional Neural Networks, Adam Abate May 2019

On Macroeconomic Nowcasting And Forecasting With Satellite Imagery And Convolutional Neural Networks, Adam Abate

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This research asks whether satellite imagery of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) can aid in the prediction of unemployment over different time horizons. I make these predictions using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). The data consist of 1735 Landsat Analysis Ready Data (ARD) images from 1990 to 2011, each averaged quarterly with a subject that is one of 27 MSAs. I match each quarterly image with a known value of unemployment collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ten training configurations use different combinations of data augmentation and image preprocessing. I find CNN training accuracy around 10 to 20 times the accuracy ...


Comparison Of Global Solution Methods To A Zero Lower Bound Model, Emily Martell Apr 2019

Comparison Of Global Solution Methods To A Zero Lower Bound Model, Emily Martell

Undergraduate Honors Theses

During the Great Recession, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered policy rates to zero, introducing a kink in its policy rule and calling into question traditional solution methods. Recent papers have solved fully nonlinear models that treats the zero lower bound (ZLB) as an occasionally binding constraint, but there is little work analyzing the relative performance of these nonlinear solution methods. Two proposed solution methods are policy function iteration with linear interpolation and regime-indexed policy function iteration with Chebyshev polynomial approximation. We examine the impact of making the policy functions conditional on whether the ZLB binds. Our solution algorithm uses ...


The Effect Of Us Monetary Policy Shocks On Cryptocurrency Returns, Jisung Kim Jan 2019

The Effect Of Us Monetary Policy Shocks On Cryptocurrency Returns, Jisung Kim

Undergraduate Honors Theses

I explore the effect of US monetary policy shocks on the returns of digital assets since the creation of Bitcoin. A pool of 100 cryptocurrencies are separated into three categories. The monetary policy shocks are measured with two different futures contracts, Fed fund futures and 10-Year bond futures, around a FOMC meeting announcement. With the use of a panel fixed effect model, I find that changes to both futures prices around FOMC meeting have differing effects on the returns of digital assets. In particular, my results suggest that digital assets with deeper integration of blockchain, like digital assets under the ...


Finding Meaning For Food Deserts: Food Retail Establishments In Colorado Counties, Brianna Huynh Jan 2019

Finding Meaning For Food Deserts: Food Retail Establishments In Colorado Counties, Brianna Huynh

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This thesis explores food retail establishments in Colorado in an attempt to discover if food deserts are a meaningful concept in the current literature. By examining Colorado county demographics and count of food retail establishments, we determine the main drivers of food retail establishment change. This thesis finds that race has an effect on food retail establishments consistent with what the literature contends, but income has an opposite effect.


Mathematical Studies Of Optimal Economic Growth Model With Monetary Policy, Xiang Liu Dec 2017

Mathematical Studies Of Optimal Economic Growth Model With Monetary Policy, Xiang Liu

Undergraduate Honors Theses

In this paper, efforts will be made to study an extended Neoclassic economic growth model derived from Solow-Swan Model and Ramsey-Cass-Koopsman Model. Some growth models (e.g. Solow-Swan Model) attempt to explain long-run economic growth by looking at capital accumulation, labor or population growth, and in- creases in productivity, while our derived model tends to look at growth from individual household and how their choice of saving, consumption and money holdings would affect the overall economic capital accumulation over a long period of time.

First an optimal control model is set up, and a system of differential equations and algebraic ...


Considerations For Mexican Immigration Policy Reform: How Motivations To Migrate Align With U.S. And Mexican Macroeconomic Conditions, Alix Naugler May 2017

Considerations For Mexican Immigration Policy Reform: How Motivations To Migrate Align With U.S. And Mexican Macroeconomic Conditions, Alix Naugler

Undergraduate Honors Theses

The nationalistic rhetoric adopted by the newly-elected president’s administration along with the public’s climaxing anti-immigrant hysteria has recently forced Mexican immigration intervention to the top of the U.S. agenda. Misconceptions regarding Mexicans’ role in stealing jobs, threatening cultural and ethnic traditions, and straining public welfare, educational, and healthcare resources have spurred a fear among the American people. This politically-fabricated “schizophrenia” has ceased the political and economic collaboration between the two nations and has resulted in the unilateral militarization of the U.S.-Mexico border. In this evaluation of the U.S. government’s immigration policies, the proposed ...


The Effect Of Integration: A Study On The Impact Of Diversity On Economic Indicators, Luke H. Schleier May 2017

The Effect Of Integration: A Study On The Impact Of Diversity On Economic Indicators, Luke H. Schleier

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper examines the effect of diversity, measured by the dissimilarity index, on the economic strength of an area. Economic strength is measured using five economic indicators: median home value, median income, median gross rent, percentage of people with health insurance, and firms per capita. The work aims to show that there is a positive economic impact due to integrating and creating communities that are more diverse. Previous work shows there is a positive impact of diversity on economic indicators such as wages, rents, and production but previous studies do not look at the effect on these economic indicators. This ...


Interactions Between Fiscal And Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model With Regime Switching Process, Zihao Chen May 2017

Interactions Between Fiscal And Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model With Regime Switching Process, Zihao Chen

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper examines the interactions between traditional fiscal and monetary policy tools: government spending and the interest rate. Two models are used: a baseline linear model, and a Markov switching model with active/passive fiscal and monetary policy combinations. The linear model is estimated and the posterior mean parameterization is used to calibrate the regime-switching model. Sims (2002) algorithm and policy function iteration are used to solve the models, and a particle filter is used to evaluate the likelihood functions. The results show that government spending alone cannot raise inflation despite the positive effect on output. The duration of the ...


Going Solo: A Qualitative Comparison Of Single Women In Japan And Colombia, Maya Heins Jan 2017

Going Solo: A Qualitative Comparison Of Single Women In Japan And Colombia, Maya Heins

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This thesis examines the economic, social, and cultural conditions of single women in Japan and Colombia as a medium for understanding how globalization impacts gender inequality around the world. The rise of single women around the world elicits questions about the changing nature of gender roles and how global economic policies impact the lives of women. The research finds that while large differences exist between the situation of single women in the Global North and South, by remaining single, women are afforded more bargaining power to renegotiate their place within oppressive systems. The rise in single women around the globe ...


"Big Government Get Off My Back Act": A Policy Analysis Of Missouri House Bill No. 45, Stephanie Stockton Jan 2017

"Big Government Get Off My Back Act": A Policy Analysis Of Missouri House Bill No. 45, Stephanie Stockton

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This analysis quantifies the effect of House Bill No. 45, or the Big Government Get Off My Back Act passed in the state of Missouri. This bill was signed into effect in August 2011 and expired in 2014. The bill offers a tax deduction to small business owners who create full-time jobs and offer a competitive wage. A higher tax deduction can be applied if the employer provides an insurance premium to their employees and financially contributes to it. This research aims to measure effects from House Bill No. 45 on unemployment, job-related insurance enrollment, income, employer contribution to health ...


Oil Shock Effects And The Business Cycle, Collin Jones Apr 2016

Oil Shock Effects And The Business Cycle, Collin Jones

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper uses a linear projection method proposed by Jorda (2005) to model how the United States business cycle affects the response of output to positive oil price shocks. I use a nonlinear specification for oil price increases, intro- duced by Lee, Ni, and Ratti (1995), which internalizes a number of popular theories in the macroeconomic literature for the determinants of the magni- tude of the oil-output response. I first confirm the results of Lee, Ni, and Ratti (1995), that conditional expected volatility of oil price predictions at the time are important for the output response, with more recent data ...


Can The Taylor Rule Describe The Monetary Policy In China?, Yuming Liu Jan 2016

Can The Taylor Rule Describe The Monetary Policy In China?, Yuming Liu

Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Taylor Rule effectively describes the relationship among nominal interest, inflation rate and output gap in the United States, assuming the country has a closed economy. This paper positively analyzes the efficiency of the Taylor Rule in China through historical analysis. I evaluate the responsiveness and effectiveness by estimating the Taylor Rule and its modifications, using quarterly data in the period 1987Q1 to 2015Q3. The original Taylor Rule does not work well based on the current Chinese monetary policy. However, adding a lagged nominal interest rate in the previous period can help the model to work better. The nominal interest ...


Governmental Agricultural Policy And Its Affect On Population Health, Alexander Steinbach Jan 2016

Governmental Agricultural Policy And Its Affect On Population Health, Alexander Steinbach

Undergraduate Honors Theses

In this paper I attempt to establish a link between government agricultural policies of subsidies and the increasing obesity epidemic that is seen across the globe. I attempt to design a research project that explores these dynamics and uses three distinct regional areas for comparison. In this paper I compare the United States, the European Union, and Japan and South Korea to see if government agricultural policy as well as trade implications play a role in rising body mass index (BMI) and obesity. The reason for comparison is due to the level of development coupled with a unique comparison of ...


The Middle Institutions Trap: A Parabolic Association Between Institutions And Income For Opec Countries, Jake W. Schneider Apr 2015

The Middle Institutions Trap: A Parabolic Association Between Institutions And Income For Opec Countries, Jake W. Schneider

Undergraduate Honors Theses

The literature on economic development asserts that institutions are positively associated with economic growth. Empirically I demonstrate this relationship for a sample size of 169 countries of the world when institutions (as measured by the Polity IV index) are regressed upon income (represented by log GDP per capita) in 2010. However, something fascinating occurs when the sample size is restricted to only Middle East North Africa (MENA) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) countries. In these cases, contrary to predicted outcomes posited by the literature, this relationship between income and institutions is, in fact, negative. This means that Middle ...