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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

The Role Of Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa, Samy Lemos Jan 2018

The Role Of Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa, Samy Lemos

CMC Senior Theses

Sub-Saharan Africa is the provider of many critical natural resources. With such resources, one would expect these countries to have thriving economies. Why is the opposite case true? To answer such a question, this paper examines a few critical causes that may justify the current economic situation these African countries are experiencing. Specifically, the paper observes the economic impact of civil war and terrorist conflict in sub-Saharan Africa from 1971 to 2016. To explore the changes in GDP per capita for all these years, this thesis sheds light on three independent variables: year of conflict, education level, and foreign direct ...


Why Not Mexico? Policy Recommendations For A Globally-Oriented Economic Strategy, Víctor Manuel Hernández-Rodríguez Jan 2018

Why Not Mexico? Policy Recommendations For A Globally-Oriented Economic Strategy, Víctor Manuel Hernández-Rodríguez

CMC Senior Theses

Mexico, one of the world’s largest economies and an increasingly relevant actor in international affairs, is at a crucial point in defining its future policy course. Given the uncertainty surrounding the global economy, as well as the political situation in Mexico, it is important to have a clear vision for policy going forward. This thesis offers a foundation for a national economic strategy with a long-term vision, upon which future administrations can build as appropriate to maximize on the country’s economic potential. The task is undertaken through a three-part approach. First, a thorough and analytical overview of the ...


The Political Impact Of Rising Trade Exposure: Evidence From 2000 - 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections, Xiaoyang Qian Jan 2017

The Political Impact Of Rising Trade Exposure: Evidence From 2000 - 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections, Xiaoyang Qian

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper we analyze the impact of global imports on regional labor markets, and how such impact translates to changes in voting patterns in the U.S. Presidential elections from 2000 to 2016. We find that imports from different U.S. trading partners influence voting patterns in different ways. In particular, we observe an anti-incumbent effect caused by import competition from OECD countries. Such an effect cannot be observed for imports from low-income countries. There is also evidence that suggests high exposure to import competition tends to drive voters toward the Democratic candidate, who typically proposes better social welfare ...


The End Of The Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes In The U.S. Economy Have Impacted Economic Growth, Maxwell J. Urman Jan 2017

The End Of The Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes In The U.S. Economy Have Impacted Economic Growth, Maxwell J. Urman

CMC Senior Theses

Using data from government sources (FRED, BEA, BLS), the thesis explores the underlying reasons for declining U.S. economic growth. A long standing trend of annual 3% growth no longer seems to hold true for the economy. The paper summarizes current theory as to why the growth has slowed and finds new explanations by analyzing the various major industries which make up GDP. The results show that sectoral shifts in employment from high paying industries to low paying industries help to explain a significant portion of the decline in national growth rates. The decline in growth is primarily driven by ...


Degree Matters: The Impact Of A Leader’S Foreign Education On His Country’S Economic Development, Zhongyi Yu Jan 2017

Degree Matters: The Impact Of A Leader’S Foreign Education On His Country’S Economic Development, Zhongyi Yu

CMC Senior Theses

I analyze the correlation between a nation leader’s foreign education experience and their nation’s GDP growth and economic freedom in African, Asian, and South American countries. There is a statistically significant correlation between a leader’s foreign education and the country’s GDP growth rate, especially in Africa. Data also shows that a leader’s foreign education is positively correlated with his country’s economic freedom. Despite the fact that the regressions can only demonstrate correlation as opposed to causation relationships among variables, further analysis of the results concludes that a leader’s education and the country’s ...


A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont Jan 2016

A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont

CMC Senior Theses

Despite their natural resources, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman) have failed to live up to their economic potential, primarily due to their dependence on a revenue source with volatile prices and political significance in an unstable region. This thesis argues that the best way to convert oil wealth into consistent long term growth is through diversification, both by investing in foreign assets and by growing domestic sectors that are independent from oil and gas prices. The research further investigates the primary tool these countries have used to ...


The Impact Of Participatory Notes On The Indian Rupee Exchange Rate, Rohan Kothari Jan 2013

The Impact Of Participatory Notes On The Indian Rupee Exchange Rate, Rohan Kothari

CMC Senior Theses

Since 1992, India has grown as a global player in the finance world. In spite of its success, India has not been able to rid itself of potentially harmful practices. One such practice is the issuing of Participatory Notes (PN) to foreign investors, so that they can anonymously purchase securities or derivatives listed on the Indian Stock Exchanges. This instrument came into public view when it accounted for approximately 50% of all foreign portfolio assets in India. Since then, the laws regarding PNs have evolved to become a more transparent version of the old rules. Although PN levels are not ...


How Many Barack Obamas Does It Take: An Analysis Of The Effect Of Charter Schools On Real Estate And Crime, Aananditaa Kakkar Jan 2013

How Many Barack Obamas Does It Take: An Analysis Of The Effect Of Charter Schools On Real Estate And Crime, Aananditaa Kakkar

CMC Senior Theses

This study looks at the relationship between charter school presence and neighborhood quality in Los Angeles. Using data from the Los Angeles Department of Education, Zillow Real Estate, and the Los Angeles Sheriff, this paper attempts to find whether changes in charter presence influence the price of surrounding real estate or the occurrence of serious and petty crimes. The results find that charter schools tend to be associated with a decrease in home sale prices. The results on crime imply that crime increases upon the opening of charter schools, however they are statistically insignificant.


The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor Jan 2011

The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor

CMC Senior Theses

Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a ...


The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal Jan 2011

The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some ...


Alleviating Social Disadvantages Of Rapid Economic Growth: A Case For Conditional Cash Transfer (Cct) Application In Old Siam, Anastasia Kostioukova Jan 2011

Alleviating Social Disadvantages Of Rapid Economic Growth: A Case For Conditional Cash Transfer (Cct) Application In Old Siam, Anastasia Kostioukova

CMC Senior Theses

The ongoing conflict between Thailand’s red shirt and yellow shirt parties is not purely political. This tension is rooted in a renewed awareness of regional economic and social inequality, a byproduct of rapid economic growth in the past. This thesis seeks to understand the overall consequences of unequal economic development in Thailand, as the rationale for asserting that a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program is an appropriate policy tool for the ongoing reconciliation efforts.