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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

America's First Great Moderation, Ryan Shaffer Jan 2011

America's First Great Moderation, Ryan Shaffer

CMC Senior Theses

This paper identifies America's first Great Moderation, a period from 1841-1856 of unbroken economic expansion and low volatility comparable to the Great Moderation of the 1980s-2000s. This moderation occurred despite a lack of central banks, low governmental spending, and barriers to interstate commerce during the antebellum period. I demonstrate this moderation in industrial production and stock market indexes and compare the first Great Moderation with the second in these economic factors. These results also call into question the conventional wisdom of the National Bureau of Economic Research business cycle chronology that the antebellum period was volatile and fraught with ...


The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal Jan 2011

The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some ...