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Articles 1 - 8 of 8

Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

A Pilot Study Of Uncertainty In Income Tax Forecasts, Andrew Joung, Benjamin Lockwood, Alex Rees-Jones Oct 2018

A Pilot Study Of Uncertainty In Income Tax Forecasts, Andrew Joung, Benjamin Lockwood, Alex Rees-Jones

Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC)

How confidently can taxpayers forecast the tax bill that they will face? We asked survey respondents to provide both point estimates and subjective probability distributions of items from the tax return that they will submit the following April. In a pilot study, consisting of a sample of 188 participants from Amazon Mechanical Turk, we find evidence of substantial uncertainty over both the final tax and its determinants. We discuss the implications of this uncertainty for both tax policy and economic modeling.


Efficacy Of Blended Finance In Climate Change Infrastructure Projects, Christian A. Butts Jan 2018

Efficacy Of Blended Finance In Climate Change Infrastructure Projects, Christian A. Butts

Wharton Research Scholars

As the conversations surrounding climate change prevention and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) financing grow in importance in the 21st century, so too do the conversations around the intersections of solutions around the topics. Blended financing has been utilized in several different forms over the past decade or so to tackle the largest problems in the global economy set out by the United Nation’s SDGs. While the tool has been leveraged for several of these Sustainable Development Goals, it has been particularly useful in attracting private investment for environmental sustainability-focused projects via the programs in place at several of ...


21st Century Chinese Art Market Boom, Ayca Deniz Ergin Jan 2018

21st Century Chinese Art Market Boom, Ayca Deniz Ergin

Summer Program for Undergraduate Research (SPUR)

This research paper provides a detailed analysis of how China has become the fastest growing art market around the world. How did the economic development in China led the country to the top in recent years, in contrast to its Western competitors? What is China’s role in the global art market scene? What changes have been made, in a socialist system, to accommodate foreign investors and what future changes should be made to sustain its growth?

Through focusing on the correlation between economic growth and art market expansions, this research develops the relationship through referencing various quantitative and qualitative ...


Up, Down And Reciprocal: The Dynamics Of Intergenerational Transfers, Family Structure And Health In A Low-Income Context, Collin F. Payne, Luca Maria Pesando, Hans-Peter Kohler Jun 2017

Up, Down And Reciprocal: The Dynamics Of Intergenerational Transfers, Family Structure And Health In A Low-Income Context, Collin F. Payne, Luca Maria Pesando, Hans-Peter Kohler

Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC)

In the absence of well-functioning public transfer systems and safety nets, the family acts as the key provider of income and support through the intergenerational redistribution of resources. In this paper we use micro-level longitudinal data and a mix of methodologies to document the lifecycle patterns of financial transfers in a rural, sub-Saharan African population. Underneath a well-established age-pattern of intergenerational transfers in which transfer patterns change according to broad stages of the economic life cycle, our analyses document significant heterogeneity and fluidity: Intergenerational transfers are variable and reverse their direction, with individuals moving between the provider and recipient states ...


Volatility, The Macroeconomy, And Asset Prices, Ravi Bansal, Dana Kiku, Ivan Shaliastovich, Amir Yaron Dec 2014

Volatility, The Macroeconomy, And Asset Prices, Ravi Bansal, Dana Kiku, Ivan Shaliastovich, Amir Yaron

Finance Papers

How important are volatility fluctuations for asset prices and the macroeconomy? We find that an increase in macroeconomic volatility is associated with an increase in discount rates and a decline in consumption. We develop a framework in which cash flow, discount rate, and volatility risks determine risk premia and show that volatility plays a significant role in explaining the joint dynamics of returns to human capital and equity. Volatility risk carries a sizable positive risk premium and helps account for the cross section of expected returns. Our evidence demonstrates that volatility is important for understanding expected returns and macroeconomic fluctuations.


Consumer Spending And The Economic Stimulus Payments Of 2008, Jonathan A. Parker, Nicholas S. Souleles, David S. Johnson, Robert Mcclelland Oct 2013

Consumer Spending And The Economic Stimulus Payments Of 2008, Jonathan A. Parker, Nicholas S. Souleles, David S. Johnson, Robert Mcclelland

Finance Papers

We measure the change in household spending caused by receipt of the economic stimulus payments of 2008, using questions added to the Consumer Expenditure Survey and variation from the randomized timing of disbursement. Households spent 12-30 percent (depending on specification) of their payments on nondurable goods during the three-month period of payment receipt, and a significant amount more on durable goods, primarily vehicles, bringing the total response to 50-90 percent of the payments. The responses are substantial and significant for older, lower-income, and home-owning households. Spending does not vary significantly with the method of disbursement (check versus electronic transfer).


Macroeconomic Fluctuations And Poverty, Philip N. Jefferson, Kunhee Kim Nov 2012

Macroeconomic Fluctuations And Poverty, Philip N. Jefferson, Kunhee Kim

Health Care Management Papers

This article examines the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic performance and measures of poverty in the United States. The article is organized as follows. Section 2 presents insights on the relationship between poverty and macroeconomic performance that emerge from the literature. The emphasis is on empirical studies from 1986 to 2011. Section 3 provides a snapshot of the change in poverty over National Bureau of Economic Research-dated recessions for a variety of poverty measures. Section 4 uses vector autoregressions (VARs) to characterize the response of poverty to innovations in various social indicators and measures of macroeconomic performance. Section 5 expands the ...


Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation And Business Performance, Erik Brynjolfsson, Lorin M. Hitt Jan 2000

Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation And Business Performance, Erik Brynjolfsson, Lorin M. Hitt

Operations, Information and Decisions Papers

To understand the economic value of computers, one must broaden the traditional definition of both the technology and its effects. Case studies and firm-level econometric evidence suggest that: 1) organizational "investments" have a large influence on the value of IT investments; and 2) the benefits of IT investment are often intangible and disproportionately difficult to measure. Our analysis suggests that the link between IT and increased productivity emerged well before the recent surge in the aggregate productivity statistics and that the current macroeconomic productivity revival may in part reflect the contributions of intangible capital accumulated in the past.