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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

A Pilot Study Of Uncertainty In Income Tax Forecasts, Andrew Joung, Benjamin Lockwood, Alex Rees-Jones Oct 2018

A Pilot Study Of Uncertainty In Income Tax Forecasts, Andrew Joung, Benjamin Lockwood, Alex Rees-Jones

Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC)

How confidently can taxpayers forecast the tax bill that they will face? We asked survey respondents to provide both point estimates and subjective probability distributions of items from the tax return that they will submit the following April. In a pilot study, consisting of a sample of 188 participants from Amazon Mechanical Turk, we find evidence of substantial uncertainty over both the final tax and its determinants. We discuss the implications of this uncertainty for both tax policy and economic modeling.


Up, Down And Reciprocal: The Dynamics Of Intergenerational Transfers, Family Structure And Health In A Low-Income Context, Collin F. Payne, Luca Maria Pesando, Hans-Peter Kohler Jun 2017

Up, Down And Reciprocal: The Dynamics Of Intergenerational Transfers, Family Structure And Health In A Low-Income Context, Collin F. Payne, Luca Maria Pesando, Hans-Peter Kohler

Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC)

In the absence of well-functioning public transfer systems and safety nets, the family acts as the key provider of income and support through the intergenerational redistribution of resources. In this paper we use micro-level longitudinal data and a mix of methodologies to document the lifecycle patterns of financial transfers in a rural, sub-Saharan African population. Underneath a well-established age-pattern of intergenerational transfers in which transfer patterns change according to broad stages of the economic life cycle, our analyses document significant heterogeneity and fluidity: Intergenerational transfers are variable and reverse their direction, with individuals moving between the provider and recipient states ...