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Singapore Management University

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The Shipping Industry In 2018, Singapore Management University Mar 2018

The Shipping Industry In 2018, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Despite oversupply that continues to suppress container freight rates, positive global macroeconomic trends bode well for shipowners


Industrial Output Fluctuations In Developing Countries: General Equilibrium Consequences Of Agricultural Productivity Shocks, Iona Hyojung Lee Feb 2018

Industrial Output Fluctuations In Developing Countries: General Equilibrium Consequences Of Agricultural Productivity Shocks, Iona Hyojung Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper shows that a negative shock to agricultural productivity may increase food prices, and labor and capital can move away from manufacturing into agriculture to meet the subsistence requirement for food. This effect depends on income levels and openness to trade. Using annual manufacturing data and rainfall shocks as the instrument for crop yields (proxy for agricultural productivity), I find that an exogenous decline in yield decreases manufacturing output as well as employment and capital investment in manufacturing. Overall, crop yield variation can explain up to 44% of industrial output fluctuations in developing countries (rainfall shocks cause 31% of ...


The Role Of Macroeconomic, Policy, And Forecaster Uncertainty In Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay Nov 2017

The Role Of Macroeconomic, Policy, And Forecaster Uncertainty In Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore the role of uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts of real output growth and inflation. We consider three separate notions of uncertainty: general macroeconomic uncertainty (the fact that macroeconomic variables are easier to forecast at some times than at others), policy uncertainty, and forecaster uncertainty. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to overall macroeconomic uncertainty and policy uncertainty, while forecaster uncertainty (which we define as the average in the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters) appears to have little role in forecast dispersion.


Growing Through The Merger And Acquisition, Jianhuan Xu Jul 2017

Growing Through The Merger And Acquisition, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper studies with an endogenous growth model how the merger and acquisition (M&A) affects the aggregate growth rate. We model the M&A as a capital reallocation process, which can increase both productivity and growth rates of firms. The model is tractable and greatly consistent with patterns observed in the M&A at the micro level. Matching our model to the data, we find that prohibiting the M&A would lead to the reduction of the aggregate growth rate of US economy by 0.1% and the reduction of the aggregate TFP by 5%.


China’S Pearl River Delta Development: A Game Changer For Hong Kong, Singapore Management University Jun 2017

China’S Pearl River Delta Development: A Game Changer For Hong Kong, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

“Hong Kong government has to think out of the box and take initiative to lead Hong Kong to break the bottle neck in economy development,” said Dr. Fang Zhou, Research Director of One Country Two Systems Research Institute (OCTSRI), a non-government public policy think tank in Hong Kong, at a seminar organized by Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong in November 2016.


Monetary Policy And Energy Price Shocks, Bao Tan Huynh May 2017

Monetary Policy And Energy Price Shocks, Bao Tan Huynh

Research Collection School Of Economics

A New Keynesian framework with endogenous energy production is proposed to investigate the role of monetary policy in addressing disturbances in energy markets. The novelty of the model lies in the endogenous production of energy with convex costs, explicit modeling of goods with different degrees of energy-dependency and sectoral price rigidities. Our analyses prescribe the desirable monetary responses to four types of energy price shocks, highlighting the distinct characteristics of each shock and affirming the need for diverse policy considerations. We also found several points of divergence in relation to previous studies on addressing energy supply shocks. In addition, we ...


Comments On “Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness And Debt Repayment Capacity”, Sock Yong Phang Jan 2017

Comments On “Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness And Debt Repayment Capacity”, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper assesses the system-wide impacts of Malaysia’s rising household debt.Malaysia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio (HDGR) increased from 76% in 2009 to 89%in 2016. This increase has raised concerns regarding the implications for householdfinancial resilience and banking system stability. The paper uses a micro-level datasetthat integrates income and debt to calculate financial margin (FM) and the probabilityof default (PD) for individuals at the baseline, and when subject to various shocks.This allows the estimation of loss to lenders in the event of default, and from there,the banking system’s debt-at-risk. The findings show that default is ...


Comments On “Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness And Debt Repayment Capacity”, Sock Yong Phang Jan 2017

Comments On “Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness And Debt Repayment Capacity”, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper assesses the system-wide impacts of Malaysia’s rising household debt.Malaysia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio (HDGR) increased from 76% in 2009 to 89%in 2016. This increase has raised concerns regarding the implications for householdfinancial resilience and banking system stability. The paper uses a micro-level datasetthat integrates income and debt to calculate financial margin (FM) and the probabilityof default (PD) for individuals at the baseline, and when subject to various shocks.This allows the estimation of loss to lenders in the event of default, and from there,the banking system’s debt-at-risk. The findings show that default is ...


Worker Selection, Hiring, And Vacancies, Ismail Baydur Jan 2017

Worker Selection, Hiring, And Vacancies, Ismail Baydur

Research Collection School Of Economics

The ratio of hirings to vacancies in the U.S. has the following establishment level properties: (i) it steeply rises with employment growth rate; (ii) falls with establishment size; and (iii) rises with worker turnover rate. The standard Diamond-Mortensen Pissarides (DMP) matching model is not compatible with these observations. This paper augments selection of workers prior to hiring into a random matching model with multi-worker firms. In the calibrated model, worker selection accounts for about 30% of the variation in the hiring-vacancy ratio observed in the data. Compared to the standard model, the worker selection model has both qualitative and ...


Invitation Strategy For Cutting Edge Industries Through Mncs And Global Talents: The Case Of Singapore, Kim Song Tan Nov 2016

Invitation Strategy For Cutting Edge Industries Through Mncs And Global Talents: The Case Of Singapore, Kim Song Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore presents an interesting case of how a country achieves dynamic economic development and innovation through the "invitation" strategy of a business hub. Despite being a small city-state with limited domestic market size and no meaningful hinterland or natural resources to speak of, Singapore has managed to transform its economy dramatically over the past 50 years by leveraging the strengths of other economies. Specifically, it has been able to attract (or "invite") various types of productive resources, including foreign capital, foreign technology and foreign workers (both skilled and unskilled) to make up for what it lacks. This has helped Singapore ...


Energy Price Shocks And External Balances, Bao Tan Huynh May 2016

Energy Price Shocks And External Balances, Bao Tan Huynh

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the impact of a wide set of energy price shocks on exter- nal balances using a two-country framework comprising multiple sectors and en- dogenous energy production with convex costs. The paper disentangles different demand and supply shocks in the energy market through their distinct impact on external balances. It provides a theoretical confirmation of Kilian et al. (2009) and a theoretical foundation to the determining role of the non-energy trade balance in the transmission of energy price shocks. The presence of durables also highlights the immediate channel through which energy prices impact the non-energy trade balance.


Investment-Specific Technical Change And Growth Around The World, Roberto M. Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun Apr 2016

Investment-Specific Technical Change And Growth Around The World, Roberto M. Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

Investment-specific technical change (ISTC) contributes little to growth in most countries. This is because in many countries the investment process does not become notably more efficient over time. Still, cross-country differences in the contribution of ISTC to growth are significant. Differences in the rate of ISTC appear due to cross-country variation in the use of R&D intensive capital goods, as well as trade costs.


Impact Of International Remittances On Schooling In The Philippines: Does The Relationship To The Household Head Matter?, Tomoki Fujii Sep 2015

Impact Of International Remittances On Schooling In The Philippines: Does The Relationship To The Household Head Matter?, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the impact of international remittances on schooling in the Philippines, taking into account the school-age individual's relationship to the household head. This consideration is important because employment opportunities abroad may be taken at the expense of the quality of child rearing. Our estimation results indicate that there are, indeed, significant negative guardian effects on school attendance and education expenditures when children with overseas parents are looked after by a relative other than a parent or grandparent. However, these negative effects tend to be outweighed by the positive impact of remittance flows from overseas.


The Role Of The State In Singapore: Pragmatism In Pursuit Of Growth, Kim Song Tan, Manu Bhaskaran Aug 2015

The Role Of The State In Singapore: Pragmatism In Pursuit Of Growth, Kim Song Tan, Manu Bhaskaran

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper looks at how government intervention shapes the evolution of the Singapore economy and accounts for its successes and failures over the past 50 years. Compared with other dynamic Asian economies, the Singapore government's approach to intervene in the economy is both more extensive and more intrusive, but with a narrow focus on GDP growth and surplus accumulation as the primary objectives. The ruling government's near complete dominance in politics has enabled it to mobilize resources to create the preconditions for strong GDP growth and high savings. But the impact on the broader development of the economy ...


Foreign Investors In Vietnam: An Increasingly Attractive Market, Tony Diep, Hawkins Pham May 2015

Foreign Investors In Vietnam: An Increasingly Attractive Market, Tony Diep, Hawkins Pham

Asian Management Insights

A new wave of mergers and acquisitions and foreign direct investments is coming into Vietnam thanks to macro stability, an emerging middle class and changes in Asia’s manufacturing landscape.


Role And Impact Of Energy In The Business Cycle, Bao Tan Huynh May 2015

Role And Impact Of Energy In The Business Cycle, Bao Tan Huynh

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Given the fundamental role of energy in the economy, the macroeconomic literature contains a large body of work on the impact of oil/energy on the business cycle, with much of the attention focusing on energy supply shocks, mostly modeled as exogenous oil/energy price increases. And yet, the oil price hikes pre-2008 suggest that other shocks to the energy market may be the source of such instance of price disturbances, so that their effects on the economy are no longer predicted by exogenous energy supply shocks. In such scenario, it is no longer valid to treat energy price disturbances ...


China's Yuan: Asia's Future Anchor Currency?, Hwee Kwan Chow Apr 2015

China's Yuan: Asia's Future Anchor Currency?, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

The yuan is becoming more widely used in pricing and settling intra-regional trade and investment. Asian currencies' movements are likely to shift more in tandem with the yuan, leading to it becoming one of Asia's lead currencies. Singapore is now the world's second-most- important offshore yuan trading hub after Hong Kong.


Cyclical Public Policy And Financial Factors, Vishrut Dhirendra Rana Jan 2015

Cyclical Public Policy And Financial Factors, Vishrut Dhirendra Rana

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The Great Recession of 2009 motivated a growing body of research on the quantitative modeling of financial factors and appropriate policy responses. This dissertation is a part of that line of research and looks at the quantitative macroeconomic effects of financial factors on business cycles. The dissertation uses quantitative macroeconomic general equilibrium models (popular dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)) that allow flexibility in micro-founded modeling of macroeconomic environments. The dissertation captures financial factors through explicit modeling of financial intermediation, featuring costly state verification and collateral constraints as financial frictions. The first chapter offers a new quantitative model of credit cycles ...


Aggregate Consumption And Debt Accumulation: An Empirical Examination Of Us Household Behavior, Yun K. Kim, Mark Setterfield, Yuan Mei Jan 2015

Aggregate Consumption And Debt Accumulation: An Empirical Examination Of Us Household Behavior, Yun K. Kim, Mark Setterfield, Yuan Mei

Research Collection School Of Economics

The outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 witnessed a significant contraction in US consumption spending, as households began deleveraging following a period marked by historically high levels of household borrowing. These events call into question the canonical life-cycle theory of consumption, with its benign view of debt as a neutral instrument of optimal intertemporal expenditure smoothing. This paper draws attention to an alternative, post-Keynesian account of consumption spending in which current income, household borrowing and household indebtedness all affect current consumption. Central to the analysis is an empirical investigation of US consumption spending since the 1950s. The results of ...


A Theory Of Aggregate Consumption, Yun K. Kim, Mark Setterfield, Yuan Mei Apr 2014

A Theory Of Aggregate Consumption, Yun K. Kim, Mark Setterfield, Yuan Mei

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a Keynesian model of aggregate consumption. Our theory emphasizes the importance of the relative income hypothesis and debt finance for understanding household consumption behavior. It is shown that particular importance attaches to how net debtor households service their debts, and that the treatment of debt-servicing commitments as a substitute for savings by these households creates the potential for 'sudden stops' in consumption spending (and hence aggregate demand).


Minimum Investment Requirement, Financial Integration And Economic (In)Stability: A Refinement To Matsuyama (2004), Haiping Zhang Dec 2013

Minimum Investment Requirement, Financial Integration And Economic (In)Stability: A Refinement To Matsuyama (2004), Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This note proposes a simple, more precise, necessary condition for symmetry breaking in Matsuyama (Financial Market Globalization, Symmetry-Breaking, and Endogenous Inequality of Nations, Econometrica, 2004 ), i.e., the positive interest rate response to income changes, which essentially arises from the assumptions of financial frictions and minimum investment size requirement of individual projects. This condition also holds under the more general settings. Thus, this note o ers an empirically testable hypothesis, i.e., Matsuyama's symmetry breaking is more likely, if the interest rate response to income changes is positive and sufficiently large.


Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin Oct 2013

Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, yet another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, this method has ...


Policy Responses In An Unstable Globalized Economy: Multi-Stressed Low-Earning Families In Singapore, Irene Y. H. Ng, Kong Weng Ho Jul 2013

Policy Responses In An Unstable Globalized Economy: Multi-Stressed Low-Earning Families In Singapore, Irene Y. H. Ng, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Singapore government responded swiftly to the 2008 global recession, doling out a range of policies in aid of all levels of wage earners. This paper explores the impacts of economic trends and government policies on low-wage earners. Using a theoretical model and empirical data from a pilot study of recipients of a government Work Support Program, it demonstrates the effects of socioeconomic factors on multi-stressed low-earning families. It discusses the adequacy of current policies in addressing the multiple stressors experienced by low-wage earners.


Cost-Effective Estimation Of The Population Mean Using Prediction Estimators, Tomoki Fujii, Roy Van Der Weide Jun 2013

Cost-Effective Estimation Of The Population Mean Using Prediction Estimators, Tomoki Fujii, Roy Van Der Weide

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers the prediction estimator as an efficient estimator for the population mean. The study may be viewed as an earlier study that proved that the prediction estimator based on the iteratively weighted least squares estimator outperforms the sample mean. The analysis finds that a certain moment condition must hold in general for the prediction estimator based on a Generalized-Method-of-Moment estimator to be at least as efficient as the sample mean. In an application to cost-effective double sampling, the authors show how prediction estimators may be adopted to maximize statistical precision (minimize financial costs) under a budget constraint (statistical ...


Decomposing The Changes Of The Divisia Price Index: Application To Inflation In The Phillipines, Tomoki Fujii Mar 2013

Decomposing The Changes Of The Divisia Price Index: Application To Inflation In The Phillipines, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

We decompose the logarithmic change in the Divisia price index into the pure price, substitution, and preference effects, although the latter two effects are hard to distinguish in practice. This decomposition allows us to identify the incidence and contributing factors of inflation. In the Philippines, we find that the preference effect is much smaller than the pure price effect in all provinces. We also find that rich deciles have experienced a higher inflation than poor deciles between 1988 and 2006. However, the gap in the standards of living has actually widened because poor deciles lagged behind in consumption growth.


Singapore Inflation Expectations: Expecting The Unexpected, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu Dec 2012

Singapore Inflation Expectations: Expecting The Unexpected, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The study of inflation expectations of Singapore house-holds is a multi-disciplinary industry-relevant research that comes out of a partnership between Singapore Management University (SMU) and MasterCard. The research team for this MasterCard-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) project applied rigorous methods using current internet-based marketing survey tools for data-collection and advanced econometric techniques to analyse the data. The updates from the quarterly waves are keenly followed by policymakers, market watchers and the media because of the enormous importance of cost of living to individuals and businesses alike.


Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin Aug 2012

Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, the method finds a ...


Decomposing The Changes Of The Divisia Price Index: Application To Inflation In The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii Mar 2011

Decomposing The Changes Of The Divisia Price Index: Application To Inflation In The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a method to decompose the logarithmic change of the Divisia price index into the pure price effect, the preference effect and the substitution effect. Our empirical results in the Philippines shows the effects of preference change on the Divisia price index are heterogeneous but positive across all regions and income deciles. However, they are dominated by the pure price effect.


Macroeconomic Effects Of Over-Investment In Housing In An Aggregative Model Of Economic Activity, Hian Teck Hoon Oct 2010

Macroeconomic Effects Of Over-Investment In Housing In An Aggregative Model Of Economic Activity, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

Is there a theoretical basis for the view that the end of a period of over-investment necessarily leads to a period of below-normal employment as the excess capital stock is run down? We study the repercussions of a false boom in housing driven by prior expectations of future housing prices not justified by fundamentals. When these expectations are corrected, the result is a precipitous drop in housing prices and, on that account alone, some drop in employment. There is also a bulge in the housing stock. In the case of a closed economy, the downward shift of the term structure ...


Macroeconomic Effects Of Over-Investment In Housing In An Aggregative Model Of Economic Activity, Hian Teck Hoon Oct 2010

Macroeconomic Effects Of Over-Investment In Housing In An Aggregative Model Of Economic Activity, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

Is there a theoretical basis for the view that the end of a period of over-investment necessarily leads to a period of below-normal employment as the excess capital stock is run down? We study the repercussions of a false boom in housing driven by prior expectations of future housing prices not justified by fundamentals. When these expectations are corrected, the result is a precipitous drop in housing prices and, on that account alone, some drop in employment. There is also a bulge in the housing stock. In the closed economy case, the downward shift of the term structure of interest ...