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Articles 1 - 30 of 263

Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Credit, Sectoral Misallocation And Productivity Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis, Carlos Urrutia, Felipe Meza, Sangeeta Pratap Sep 2019

Credit, Sectoral Misallocation And Productivity Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis, Carlos Urrutia, Felipe Meza, Sangeeta Pratap

Carlos Urrutia

We study the relation between credit conditions, misallocation of resources, and productivity growth in a multi-sector model with financial frictions. In our framework, working capital constraints and borrowing limits create wedges between the marginal product of inputs and their relative prices, which we can map into distortions to the capital to labor ratio and to the use of intermediate goods. The distribution of these distortions across sectors and their changes over time affect aggregate TFP. We construct a novel dataset for the Mexican manufacturing activity that merges real and financial data at the 4-digit sectoral level and use our model ...


Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith May 2018

Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

There is a growing interest in allowing for asymmetry in the density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. 
In multivariate time series, this can be achieved with a copula model, where both serial and cross-sectional dependence is captured by a copula function, and the margins are nonparametric. Yet most existing copulas cannot capture heteroskedasticity well, which is a feature of many economic and financial time series. To do so, we propose a new copula created by the inversion of a multivariate unobserved component stochastic volatility model, and show how to estimate it using Bayesian methods. We fit the copula model to real-time ...


The Behavioral And Neuroeconomics Of Food And Brand Decisions: Executive Summary, Amanda Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson Lusk May 2018

The Behavioral And Neuroeconomics Of Food And Brand Decisions: Executive Summary, Amanda Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson Lusk

John Crespi

This executive summary provides the rationale for and summary of the articles of this Special Edition of the Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization.


Are Consumers As Constrained As Hens Are Confined? Brain Activations And Behavioral Choices After Informational Influence, Alex J. Francisco, Amanda S. Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson L. Lusk, Brandon Mcfadden, Jared M. Bruce, Robin L. Aupperle, Seung-Lark Lim May 2018

Are Consumers As Constrained As Hens Are Confined? Brain Activations And Behavioral Choices After Informational Influence, Alex J. Francisco, Amanda S. Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson L. Lusk, Brandon Mcfadden, Jared M. Bruce, Robin L. Aupperle, Seung-Lark Lim

John Crespi

In 2008, California passed Proposition 2, specifying confinement space for certain farm animals. Proposition 2 went into full effect January 2015 and has significant implications for egg production in California and possibly even interstate commerce. We examined the influence of promotional videos aired during the campaign on consumers’ willingness-to-pay for eggs produced in a more open production system (i.e., cage-free, free range) and corresponding neurofunctional activations during decisions. Forty-six participants (24 females), aged 18–55 years (M=29.65), were enrolled and performed a food decision-making task during fMRI scanning. In each decision, two options of identical one dozen ...


Discretionary Policy And Multiple Equilibria In A New Keynesian Model, Volker Hahn Mar 2017

Discretionary Policy And Multiple Equilibria In A New Keynesian Model, Volker Hahn

Volker Hahn

We show that discretionary policy-making can lead to multiple rational-expectations equilibria where the central bank responds to inflation sentiments, which are not directly related to economic fundamentals. Some equilibria have favorable consequences for welfare, resulting in outcomes superior even to those achieved under timeless-perspective commitment. Moreover, we show that our framework can explain several moments of US data reasonably well. In particular, it provides an alternative explanation for the high degree of inflation persistence found in the data.


The Urban Density Premium Across Establishments, R. Jason Faberman, Matthew Freedman Apr 2016

The Urban Density Premium Across Establishments, R. Jason Faberman, Matthew Freedman

Matthew Freedman

We use longitudinal establishment data to estimate the urban density premium for U.S. establishments, controlling for observed establishment characteristics and dynamic establishment behavior. Consistent with previous studies, we find an elasticity of average establishment earnings with respect to metropolitan area population of 0.03, controlling for the endogeneity of location and establishment and metropolitan area characteristics. More importantly, we find that the estimated density premium is realized almost entirely at entry and is constant over an establishment’s life. We find little evidence that the endogenous entry or exit of establishments can account for any of the estimated density ...


Asymmetric Forecast Densities For U.S. Macroeconomic Variables From A Gaussian Copula Model Of Cross-Sectional And Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Shaun Vahey Dec 2015

Asymmetric Forecast Densities For U.S. Macroeconomic Variables From A Gaussian Copula Model Of Cross-Sectional And Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Shaun Vahey

Michael Stanley Smith

Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this paper, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations ...


Designing Monetary Policy Committees, Volker Hahn Dec 2015

Designing Monetary Policy Committees, Volker Hahn

Volker Hahn

We integrate monetary policy-making by committee into a New Keynesian model to assess the consequences of the committee's institutional characteristics for inflation, output, and welfare. Our analysis delivers the following results. First, we demonstrate that transparency about the committee's future composition is typically harmful. Second, we show that short terms for central bankers lead to effective inflation stabilization at the expense of comparably high output variability. Third, larger committees generally allow for more efficient stabilization of inflation but possibly for less efficient output stabilization. Fourth, large committees and short terms are therefore socially desirable if the weight on ...


Bank Solvency And Economic Activity, Lester G. Telser Oct 2015

Bank Solvency And Economic Activity, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

This note explains why bank solvency is extremely important in a modern economy. Although banks provide many services including loans to business and households, these are secondary. Provision of the means of payment is primary. Every transaction in a modern economy involves a means of payment offered by the buyer and acceptable to the seller.


Economic Wealth And Social Welfare: A Longitudinal Analysis Of Transnational Well-Being, Kelly Brooke Martin Oct 2015

Economic Wealth And Social Welfare: A Longitudinal Analysis Of Transnational Well-Being, Kelly Brooke Martin

KELLY B MARTIN

Macro changes in the financial arena have prompted ongoing research focused on global economic trends. As America emerges from an era of stagnant wages, rising unemployment, and growing class stratification it is necessary to explore differences in cross-national socioeconomic behavior to address the changing needs of our country. Many studies attempt to describe statistical correlations between economic wealth and social well-being domestically and abroad by utilizing methodological perspectives that do not account for longitudinal change. To address the gap in existing research, this study seeks to measure variations in econometric indicators between the U.S. and Nordic countries to further ...


Chaotic Behavior In Monetary Systems: Comparison Among Different Types Of Taylor Rule, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Wenjun Zhang Dr., Jiling Cao Prof. Aug 2015

Chaotic Behavior In Monetary Systems: Comparison Among Different Types Of Taylor Rule, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Wenjun Zhang Dr., Jiling Cao Prof.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

The aim of the present study is to detect the chaotic behavior in the monetary economic relevant dynamical system. The study employs three different forms of Taylor rules: current, forward and backward looking. The result suggests the existence of the chaotic behavior in all three systems. In addition, the results strongly represent that using expectations in policy rule especially rational expectation hypothesis can increase the complexity of the system and leads to more chaotic behavior.


Ex-Ante Evaluation Of Public-Private Partnerships: Macroeconomic Analysis, Junxiao Liu, Peter Love, Brad Carey, Jim Smith, Michael Regan Aug 2015

Ex-Ante Evaluation Of Public-Private Partnerships: Macroeconomic Analysis, Junxiao Liu, Peter Love, Brad Carey, Jim Smith, Michael Regan

Michael Regan

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are currently a popular approach for governments to procure social and economic infrastructure. The macroeconomic environment plays a critical role and influences the factors that can lead to the successful delivery of a PPP project. Despite the importance of the macroeconomic environment, limited attention has been paid to ex-ante (that is, before the event, or forecast) evaluation. A review of the normative literature was undertaken, aiming to derive key performance indicators (KPIs) of PPP success. The KPIs were validated by using a vector error correction model. It is suggested that the developed KPIs can be used to ...


Chaotic Behavior In Monetary Systems: Comparison Among Different Types Of Taylor Rule, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Wenjun Zhang, Jiling Cao Jul 2015

Chaotic Behavior In Monetary Systems: Comparison Among Different Types Of Taylor Rule, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Wenjun Zhang, Jiling Cao

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

The aim of the present study is to detect the chaotic behavior in monetary economic relevant dynamical system. The study employs three different forms of Taylor rules: current, forward, and backward looking. The result suggests the existence of the chaotic behavior in all three systems. In addition, the results strongly represent that using expectations in policy rule especially rational expectation hypothesis can increase complexity of the system and leads to more chaotic behavior.


Ii Keynes On Safe Assets, Lester G. Telser Jul 2015

Ii Keynes On Safe Assets, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

Only the monetary authorities can create and issue safe assets. A safe asset is not offset by any liability so no private entity can issue it. The nominal value of a safe asset is fixed and it usually offers no nominal yield. The rationale for safe assets can be traced to the factors underlying the Keynesian liquidity trap. Since late 2008 the Fed has paid 0.25 percent on member bank reserves held in deposits at the Fed. This is part of the program known as ‘quantitative easing.’ It may have presented collapse of the U.S. banking system.


How Default Probability Affects Returns On Loans, Lester G. Telser Jun 2015

How Default Probability Affects Returns On Loans, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

Even the simplest kind of default as an independent random event poses difficulties. The correct formulas for the nominal return on a default free loan and the revisions to apply for a loan that may default follow from 2 assumptions. 1. A good now is better than a good later because survival from now to later is not sure. 2. Private loans occur only if the probability of default does not exceed an upper bound set by the reciprocal of the nominal return on a default free loan. This upper bound makes sense if and only if the nominal interest ...


Public Actors In Private Markets: Toward A Developmental Finance State, Robert Hockett, Saule Omarova Jun 2015

Public Actors In Private Markets: Toward A Developmental Finance State, Robert Hockett, Saule Omarova

Saule T. Omarova

The recent financial crisis brought into sharp relief fundamental questions about the social function and purpose of the financial system, including its relation to the “real” economy. This Article argues that, to answer these questions, we must recapture a distinctively American view of the proper relations among state, financial market, and development. This programmatic vision – captured in what we call a “developmental finance state” – is based on three key propositions: (1) that economic and social development is not an “end-state” but a continuing national policy priority; (2) that the modalities of finance are the most potent means of fueling continuous ...


How Low Interest Rates Impede Recovery, Lester G. Telser Apr 2015

How Low Interest Rates Impede Recovery, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

A super market and a bank in the money market treat their customers differently. A supermarket stands ready to sell to any customer any amount available of a commodity at a given price without regard to the customer’s credit standing. The credit standing of a potential borrower is paramount to a bank. Whether a bank offers a loan, its size if it does, and the interest rate it asks all depends on its assessment of the credit risk. Keeping interest rates low impedes lending and economic recovery.


The Power Of The Brics In World Trade And Growth, Analysing The Macroeconomic Impacts Within And Across The Bloc, Ahmed Khalid Apr 2015

The Power Of The Brics In World Trade And Growth, Analysing The Macroeconomic Impacts Within And Across The Bloc, Ahmed Khalid

Ahmed Khalid

Extract: The BRICS is a composition of five emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The five countries together represent about 42 per cent of the world's population, over 24 per cent of all land, and about 20 per cent of the world's total GDP, contributing a combined nominal GDP of more than US$14.9 trillion. Over the past decade trade between the BRICS and other regions such as North America, the EU and Japan has surpassed the US$2 trillion mark. Trade within the BRICS countries is growing at an average of 28 per ...


Identification Of Key Productive Sectors In The Mexican Economy, Isaac Sánchez-Juárez, David Revilla, Adelaido García-Andrés Mar 2015

Identification Of Key Productive Sectors In The Mexican Economy, Isaac Sánchez-Juárez, David Revilla, Adelaido García-Andrés

Isaac Sánchez-Juárez

This article focuses on identifying what are the key sectors with high potential for drag induced investment in the Mexican economy, also characterizes the sectors according to their hierarchy, impact and degree of articulation. To achieve this the input-output matrix national 2003 was used (disaggregated into 20 sectors and 79 sub-sectors), provided by the official government agency responsible for generating statistical information, which applied the traditional method of calculation of multipliers which takes into account both relations hierarchical such as circular between the productive sectors of Rasmussen (1956). The originality of the work lies in the application of the social ...


Studying The Effects Of Non Oil Exports On Targeted Economic Growth In Iranian 5th Development Plan: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach, Rasoul Bakhsi Dastjerdi Dr., Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Somayye Jafari Dec 2014

Studying The Effects Of Non Oil Exports On Targeted Economic Growth In Iranian 5th Development Plan: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach, Rasoul Bakhsi Dastjerdi Dr., Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Somayye Jafari

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

we investigate the effects of non oil export on Iran’s economic growth using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) and study which tradable sectors has a larger share in reaching to targeted growth rate 8% in 5th socio economic development plan. We calibrate the model by GAMS (with emphasis on foreign trade sector). Numerical solution to the model is based on Iran’s social accounting matrix (SAM). Results show that 2.03% of targeted economic growth rate is achieved by encouraging a 6% growth in export. It also be mentioned that industry and mine sector in Iran, has more influence ...


Cyclical Downturn Or Structural Disease? The Decline Of The Italian Economy In The Last Twenty Years, Enrico Saltari, Giuseppe Ciccarone Dec 2014

Cyclical Downturn Or Structural Disease? The Decline Of The Italian Economy In The Last Twenty Years, Enrico Saltari, Giuseppe Ciccarone

Enrico Saltari

Italy is experiencing at present the most serious economic recession of the post-war period. Between 2008 and 2013 national income fell by 9 per cent, per capita incomes by 11 per cent, and industrial production by 25 per cent; and unemployment doubled. In this essay we argue that, while this dramatic situation has been made worse by the policies of ‘expansive austerity’, its origins can be traced back to changes that took place in the 1990s (notably globalization, competition for emerging new markets and the diffusion of new technologies – ICT) to which Italy failed to react speedily or effectively by ...


Lessons From The U.S. Great Depression And The German Hyperinflation, Lester G. Telser Dec 2014

Lessons From The U.S. Great Depression And The German Hyperinflation, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

Abstract. The German hyperinflation and the U.S. Great Depression have in common the effects of an insufficient amount of useful media of exchange. In Germany too much currency was printed and in the U.S. widespread bank failures undermined confidence in all demand deposits so all bank checks were regarded suspiciously. The effects were the same in both countries, very high rates of unemployment coupled with collapse of their economies. The German Hyperinflation gives evidence against the Phillips Curve. JEL E65 Study of Particular Policy Episodes


Beliefs, Institutions, And Learning: A New Order For The New Global Economy?, Sumru G. Altug Dec 2014

Beliefs, Institutions, And Learning: A New Order For The New Global Economy?, Sumru G. Altug

SUMRU G ALTUG

No abstract provided.


Why Do Countries Adopt Fiscal Rules?, John Thornton, Yener Altunbas Dec 2014

Why Do Countries Adopt Fiscal Rules?, John Thornton, Yener Altunbas

John Thornton

This paper examines which economic, institutional and political charac- teristics of countries affect the likelihood that a numeral rule will be adopted as part of a fiscal strategy to limit the level of public debt. We estimate a panel binary response model over the period 1970–2012 for 110 countries, of which 58 opted to adopt such a rule. Our results suggest that the probability such a rule will be adopted is greater if a country has a high level of public debt, a relatively inflexible exchange rate regime, has already adopted inflation targeting, has deep credit markets and if ...


The Impact Of The Volatility Of Monetary Policy On A Small Economy: Some Evidence From New Zealand, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao, Wenjun Zhang Dec 2014

The Impact Of The Volatility Of Monetary Policy On A Small Economy: Some Evidence From New Zealand, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao, Wenjun Zhang

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks on a small economy using the GARCH-SVAR model. We enrich the SVAR model by using time-varying International and domestic volatilities as endogenous variables. The results show that although monetary policy shocks have transient effect on real economy (neutrality of money) the impact of the volatility of monetary policy shocks on real part of the economy is permanent and significant. Findings of variance decomposition also show that New Zealand heavily depends on international trade, so international monetary shocks can have a permanent impact on the local ...


External Economies And Competitive Equilibrium, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan Dec 2014

External Economies And Competitive Equilibrium, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan

George A. Hay

In an article published in 1955, Murray Kemp analyzed the case for interference with the competitive allocation of resources when external economies of production are present. In the specific model we are interested in—where the costs of any one producer's operations are affected by the total output of all producers of the same product—Kemp attempted to show that where entry into the industry is closed (although the industry is otherwise perfectly competitive), "there can always be found a subsidy, either on the product or on a particular factor, which will be a sufficient incentive to firms to ...


External Diseconomies In Competitive Supply: Comment, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan Dec 2014

External Diseconomies In Competitive Supply: Comment, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan

George A. Hay

In a recent article in this Review, Charles Goetz and James Buchanan (G-B) assert that " . . . the standard description of misallocation in the presence of external production diseconomies is misleading . . . " because these externalities produce a ". . . combination of exchange-inefficiency with production-inefficiency [which ] renders the construction of correction devices much more difficult" (p. 889). Stated otherwise their contention is that with external diseconomies that are internal to an industry, i.e., those that each firm in an industry inflicts on other firms in the same industry, a competitive regime in the presence of a per unit tax on output designed to eliminate the ...


The Financial Crisis Impact On Potential Output In Iran, Fatemeh Almasi, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jalili Khodaparast Shirazi Dr. Nov 2014

The Financial Crisis Impact On Potential Output In Iran, Fatemeh Almasi, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jalili Khodaparast Shirazi Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this study the quarterly data from 1996:1-2011:2 have been used to investigate the effect of financial crisis on potential output in Iran. For this purpose potential output, natural unemployment rate, spread between short-run and long-run interest rate and real money supply variables are used to estimate Auto Regressive Model and analyze Impulse-Response function and Variance Decomposition. The results show that financial crisis has a negative impact on potential output in Iran. Also, monetary shocks have negative impact on potential output in Iran. As regards, monetary policy has no effect on actual output in long-run, it seems that ...


The Impact Of Global And Domestic Volatility Of Monetary Policy: A Var-Garch Approach, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao Prof., Wenjun Zhang Dr. Nov 2014

The Impact Of Global And Domestic Volatility Of Monetary Policy: A Var-Garch Approach, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao Prof., Wenjun Zhang Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In the past six decades a lot of research has been carried out to find the effect of monetary policy on real economy. But in the most of these articles, the effect of the volatility of monetary policy has been ignored. This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks using the GARCH-VAR model. We enrich the VAR model by adding time-varying volatility as endogenous variables. We consider three different types of shocks: internal (domestic), regional and global. For our empirical evidence we use quarterly data of Australia and New Zealand from 1988:1 ...


The Long-Run Decline In Labor Share: Technology Versus Institutions, Mary O'Mahony, Michela Vecchi, Francesco Venturini Oct 2014

The Long-Run Decline In Labor Share: Technology Versus Institutions, Mary O'Mahony, Michela Vecchi, Francesco Venturini

Francesco Venturini

We investigate the causes of the declining trend in labor shares using a large industry level data set and controlling for heterogeneity, non-stationarity and cross-sectional dependence. Our results show that in, the long run, technological changes and ICT capital are major sources of the decline. Conversely, knowledge capital increases labor shares, as well as more stringent regulations on intellectual property rights. Other market regulations do not play a significant role. Our results also show that hysteresis characterizes the dynamics of labor shares in all countries. This further supports the assumption that institutional differences do not cause labor share movements and ...