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Articles 1 - 30 of 39

Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Efficiency With Endogenous Population And Fixed Resources, Juan Carlos Cordoba, Xiying Liu Nov 2018

Efficiency With Endogenous Population And Fixed Resources, Juan Carlos Cordoba, Xiying Liu

Economics Working Papers

This article studies socially optimal allocations, in the first-best sense, in environments characterized by fixed resources and endogenous fertility. Individuals in our environment are fully rational and altruistic toward their descendants, the social planner is benevolent, and there is full information. Our model allows for rich heterogeneity of abilities, preferences for children, and costs of raising children. We find that efficient allocations in the endogenous fertility case differ significantly from its exogenous fertility counterpart. In particular, optimal steady-state population is proportional to the amount of fixed resources and to the level of technology while steady state individual consumption is independent ...


Pareto-Improving Transition To Fully Funded Pensions Under Myopia, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Marias H. Gestsson Nov 2018

Pareto-Improving Transition To Fully Funded Pensions Under Myopia, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Marias H. Gestsson

Economics Working Papers

Under dynamic efficiency, a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension scheme is often described as an “original sin”: It helps the current generation of retirees but hurts future generations because they are forced to save via a return-dominated scheme. Abandoning it is deemed welfare-improving but typically not for all generations. But what if agents are present-biased (hence, undersave for retirement) and the “paternalistically motivated forced savings” component of a PAYG scheme motivated its existence in the first place? This paper shows it is possible to transition from such a PAYG scheme on to a higher return, mandated fully-funded scheme; yet, no generation is ...


Duality Theory In Empirical Work, Revisited, Francisco Rosas, Sergio H. Lence Aug 2017

Duality Theory In Empirical Work, Revisited, Francisco Rosas, Sergio H. Lence

Economics Publications

We compute a pseudo-dataset by Monte Carlo simulations featuring important characteristics of US agriculture, such that the initial technology parameters are known, and employing widely used datasets for calibration. Then, we show the usefulness of this calibration by applying the duality theory approach to datasets bearing as sources of noise only the aggregation of technologically heterogeneous firms. Estimation recovers initial parameters with reasonable accuracy. These conclusions are expected, but the proposed calibration sets the basis for analysing the performance of duality theory in empirical work when datasets have more observed and unobserved sources of noise, as those faced by practitioners.


The Relative Importance Of Macroeconomic Shocks, Regional Shocks And Idiosyncratic Risk On Large And Small Banks, Jack R. Fischer, Joseph E. Mcphail, Nathan Rodrigues, Peter Orazem Jul 2017

The Relative Importance Of Macroeconomic Shocks, Regional Shocks And Idiosyncratic Risk On Large And Small Banks, Jack R. Fischer, Joseph E. Mcphail, Nathan Rodrigues, Peter Orazem

Economics Working Papers

Mandatory stress testing has been acclaimed by banking regulators as a key response to preventing future financial crises. Each year banks in the United States with over $50 Billion in assets must perform a Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) . Banks with over $10 Billion are subject to Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing (DFAST). This study examne the relative importance of international or national macroeconomic shocks, state-level shocks, and idiosyncratic shocks on mortgage rate charge-offs for the universe of all banks for the 2002-2014 period. We find tha banks with over $10 billion in assets have charge-off rates that are very ...


Usda Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?, Jinzhi Xiao, Chad E. Hart, Sergio H. Lence Apr 2017

Usda Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?, Jinzhi Xiao, Chad E. Hart, Sergio H. Lence

Economics Publications

This study analyzes forecasts of U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat issued by the USDA. The proposed efficiency tests focus on forecast revisions. Forecast errors are decomposed into monthly unforecastable shocks and idiosyncratic residuals. The error covariance matrix allows for heteroscedasticity and auto-correlations. Results suggest that the USDA forecasts are inefficient, providing strong evidence that the USDA is conservative in forecasting the ending stocks. Unforecastable shocks are heteroscedastic, and idiosyncratic residuals are small. Results are consistent across the three decades analyzed, but soybean forecasts are found to be considerably worse from 2005 to 2015.


Malthusian Stagnation Is Efficient, Juan C. Cordoba, Xiying Liu Nov 2016

Malthusian Stagnation Is Efficient, Juan C. Cordoba, Xiying Liu

Economics Working Papers

Malthusian economies are generally deemed inefficient: stagnated, highly unequal, and densely populated by a labouring class prone to high fertility. This article defines and characterizes efficient allocations in Malthusian environments of fixed resources and endogenous fertility. We show, that under general conditions, efficient allocations exhibit stagnation in standards of living, inequality, differential fertility, and a high population density of poorer individuals.


Why Mandate Young Borrowers To Contribute To Their Retirement Accounts?, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya Sep 2016

Why Mandate Young Borrowers To Contribute To Their Retirement Accounts?, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya

Economics Working Papers

Many countries, in an effort to address the problem that too many retirees have too little saved up, impose mandatory contributions into retirement accounts, that too, in an age-independent manner. This is puzzling because such funded pension schemes effectively mandate the young, who wish to borrow, to save for retirement. Further, if agents are present-biased, they disagree with the intent of such schemes and attempt to undo them by reducing their own saving or even borrowing against retirement wealth. We establish a welfare case for mandating the middle-aged and the young to contribute to their retirement accounts, even with age-independent ...


Are Consumers As Constrained As Hens Are Confined? Brain Activations And Behavioral Choices After Informational Influence, Alex J. Francisco, Amanda S. Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson L. Lusk, Brandon Mcfadden, Jared M. Bruce, Robin L. Aupperle, Seung-Lark Lim Jan 2015

Are Consumers As Constrained As Hens Are Confined? Brain Activations And Behavioral Choices After Informational Influence, Alex J. Francisco, Amanda S. Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson L. Lusk, Brandon Mcfadden, Jared M. Bruce, Robin L. Aupperle, Seung-Lark Lim

Economics Publications

In 2008, California passed Proposition 2, specifying confinement space for certain farm animals. Proposition 2 went into full effect January 2015 and has significant implications for egg production in California and possibly even interstate commerce. We examined the influence of promotional videos aired during the campaign on consumers’ willingness-to-pay for eggs produced in a more open production system (i.e., cage-free, free range) and corresponding neurofunctional activations during decisions. Forty-six participants (24 females), aged 18–55 years (M=29.65), were enrolled and performed a food decision-making task during fMRI scanning. In each decision, two options of identical one dozen ...


The Behavioral And Neuroeconomics Of Food And Brand Decisions: Executive Summary, Amanda Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson Lusk Jan 2015

The Behavioral And Neuroeconomics Of Food And Brand Decisions: Executive Summary, Amanda Bruce, John Crespi, Jayson Lusk

Economics Publications

This executive summary provides the rationale for and summary of the articles of this Special Edition of the Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization.


What Explains Schooling Differences Across Countries?, Juan Carlos Cordoba, Marla Ripoll Mar 2013

What Explains Schooling Differences Across Countries?, Juan Carlos Cordoba, Marla Ripoll

Economics Publications

This paper provides a theory that explains the cross-country distribution of average years of schooling, as well as the so called human capital premium puzzle. In our theory, credit frictions as well as differences in access to public education, fertility and mortality turn out to be the key reasons why schooling differs across countries. Differences in growth rates and in wages are second order.


The Russian Food, Alcohol And Tobacco Consumption Patterns During Transition, Marian Rizov, Thomas Herzfeld, Sonya K. Huffman Dec 2012

The Russian Food, Alcohol And Tobacco Consumption Patterns During Transition, Marian Rizov, Thomas Herzfeld, Sonya K. Huffman

Economics Publications

The paper presents evidence on the impact of individual characteristics as well as regional macroeconomic factors on changes in fat, protein, alcohol and tobacco consumption, and on diet's diversity during the transition period 1994 -2004 in Russia. The results from estimating first difference demand functions using Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) data suggest that individual characteristics such as initial consumption patterns, gender, education, household income, and access to a garden plot all have a significant impact on the consumption behaviour. Regarding the macroeconomic variables, inflation has a significant impact on alcohol and tobacco consumption, while unemployment significantly impacts only ...


Review Of What’S Economics Worth? Valuing Policy Research, Giancarlo Moschini Jan 2007

Review Of What’S Economics Worth? Valuing Policy Research, Giancarlo Moschini

Economics Publications

This collection of papers—which grew out of an effort initiated by the In- ternational Food Policy Research Institute, with preliminary contributions presented at three symposia between 1996 and 2001—intellectually flows from the strand of applied economics that has endeavored to measure the returns to investments in technology and scientific research and development (R & D). Having found handsome returns for many R & D ventures, especially in agriculture, this body of research has lent itself well to advocating continued and increased public support for science—to the delight of many a scientist but, in an age of increasingly tight budget ...


Agent-Based Computational Modeling And Macroeconomics, Leigh Tesfatsion Jan 2006

Agent-Based Computational Modeling And Macroeconomics, Leigh Tesfatsion

Economics Publications

How should economists model the relationship between macroeconomic phenomena and microeconomic structure? Economists have been struggling to answer this question for decades. Nevertheless, the Walrasian equilibrium model devised by the nineteenth century French economist Leon Walras (1834-1910) still remains the fundamental paradigm that frames the way many economists think about this issue. Competitive models directly adopt the paradigm. Imperfectly competitive models typically adopt the paradigm as a benchmark of coordination success. Although often critiqued for its excessive abstraction and lack of empirical salience, the paradigm has persisted.


Do Macroeconomic Shocks Impact The Economic Efficiency Of Small Farmers? The Case Of Wetland Rice Farmers In Indonesia, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Helen H. Jensen, Dong Yan May 2004

Do Macroeconomic Shocks Impact The Economic Efficiency Of Small Farmers? The Case Of Wetland Rice Farmers In Indonesia, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Helen H. Jensen, Dong Yan

CARD Working Papers

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the efficiency of small farmers. We estimate single- and multiple-factor efficiency measures for Indonesian rice farmers in years before, during, and after the country's macroeconomic crisis. We find that productive efficiency declined by 7 to 22 percent during the crisis, largely because of a decline in technical efficiency and a relatively large volatility in efficiency (the coefficient of variation was larger by a factor of 1.87). Allocative efficiency, on the other hand, increased slightly and offset part of the decrease in technical efficiency. The magnitude of the impact on ...


Rural Population Growth, 1950–1990: The Roles Of Human Capital, Industry Structure, And Government Policy, Tzu-Ling Huang, Peter F. Orazem, Darin Wohlgemuth Jan 2002

Rural Population Growth, 1950–1990: The Roles Of Human Capital, Industry Structure, And Government Policy, Tzu-Ling Huang, Peter F. Orazem, Darin Wohlgemuth

Economics Publications

Human capital raises rural incomes, but this effect is swamped by higher returns to human capital in urban markets. This leads to “brain drain” from rural areas. Populations grow more rapidly in rural counties that have a diversified employment base. Farm population grows faster (or declines more slowly) in counties with relatively high farm income, and nonfarm populations grow faster in counties with relatively high nonfarm income. However, higher farm incomes lead to slower nonfarm population growth and vice versa. Rural county government services financed by local taxes or debt have neutral or negative effects on population growth.


Revisiting The Phillips Curve With A Structural Var, Barry Falk, Bong-Soo Lee Mar 1999

Revisiting The Phillips Curve With A Structural Var, Barry Falk, Bong-Soo Lee

Economic Staff Paper Series

Our purpose is to examine the broad consistency of the data with the stylized predictions ofa simple textbook Keynesian model of inflation and unemployment. Models in this class, despite their simplicity and lack of a firm foundation in general equilibrium theory, form the basis for much of what we teach our undergraduates and for much of the public and media discussion of macroeconomic events and policies. Furthermore, the "reasonableness" of more sophisticated micro-based macroeconomic models are often judged according to how well their conclusions correspond to those that come from the aggregate supply and aggregate demand framework.


Cointegration And Threshold Adjustment, Walter Enders, Pierre L. Siklos Oct 1998

Cointegration And Threshold Adjustment, Walter Enders, Pierre L. Siklos

Economic Staff Paper Series

One important development in the recent time-series literature is the examination of non linear adjustment mechanisms. Much of the impetus for this interest stems from a large number of studies showing that key macroeconomic variables such as real GDP, unemployment, and industrial production display asymmetric adjustment over the course of the business cycle. For example, Neftci (1984), Falk (1986), DeLong and Summers (1988), Terasvirta and Anderson (1992), Sichel (1993), Beaudry and Koop (1993), Potter (1995), Ramsey and Rothman (1996) and Bradley and Jensen (1997) all support various forms of asymmetric adjustment in one or more of these variables.


Male‐Female Supply To State Government Jobs And Comparable Worth, Peter F. Orazem, J. Peter Mattila Jan 1998

Male‐Female Supply To State Government Jobs And Comparable Worth, Peter F. Orazem, J. Peter Mattila

Economics Publications

The proportion of women in state government jobs and applicant pools is well explained by a model emphasizing supply-side factors. Relative to men, women’s supply is least sensitive to wages in predominantly male jobs and most sensitive to wages in predominantly female jobs. These results suggest that comparable worth policies that shift relative pay toward traditionally female jobs and away from traditionally male jobs will increase the proportion of females in male-dominated, female-dominated, and total state government jobs. The implication is that supply side responses need not prevent comparable worth pay adjustments from raising total female compensation.


Reservation Price Announcement In Sealed Bid Auctions: Comment, John R. Schroeter Aug 1996

Reservation Price Announcement In Sealed Bid Auctions: Comment, John R. Schroeter

Economic Staff Paper Series

In a 1993 paper in the Journal of Industrial Economics, Carey studies the problem of reservation price announcement in sealed bid procurement auctions. Assuming that the auctioneer/monopsonist has a self-supply option and is motivated by the desire to minimize the expected total cost of procurement, she investigates the auctioneer's decision to announce a reservation price and the level at which it should be set. Carey's analysis includes some errors, however. This comment proposes corrections. I begin by describing the auction setting.


Estimating Trend Stationary Models Of Homogeneously Generated Samples, Barry Falk Jul 1995

Estimating Trend Stationary Models Of Homogeneously Generated Samples, Barry Falk

Economic Staff Paper Series

Sims (1991) conjectured that the conditional maximum likelihood estimator of trend stationary models of macroeconomic time series will tend to place initial observations relatively far from the estimated trend line. This can be misleading if the entire sample has been generated by the same data generating process and there is nothing unusual about the initial observations. We use the extended Nelson Plosser data set to evaluate Sims's conjecture. We consider the weighted symmetric estimator developed by Park and Fuller (1993) as an alternative approach to this estimation problem.


A Comparison Of Ols And Ws Unit Root Test Results, Barry Falk Jun 1995

A Comparison Of Ols And Ws Unit Root Test Results, Barry Falk

Economic Staff Paper Series

OLS-based unit root tests (e.g., Dickey-Fuller, Augmented DickeyFuller, and PhiHips-Perron tests) typically fail to reject the unit root null at conventional significance levels when applied to macroeconomic time series data. This has stimulated a large amount of research regarding the applied and theoretical econometric implications of unit root processes. However, these tests are known to have low power against trend stationary and near-unit-root alternatives, the leading alternative data generating processes for these data. Recently, Pantula, GonzalezFarias, and Fuller (1994) proposed a unit root test based upon the weighted-symmetric estimator of an autoregressive model developed by Park and Fuller (1993 ...


Macroeconomic Adjustment And The Economic Transition In Agriculture: The Case Of Lithuania, Natalija Kazlauskiene, William H. Meyers Nov 1994

Macroeconomic Adjustment And The Economic Transition In Agriculture: The Case Of Lithuania, Natalija Kazlauskiene, William H. Meyers

BALTIC Reports

Experiences in transition economies have shown that the simultaneity of macroeconomic and sectoral reforms is important to the success of both. In Lithuania, macroeconomic, agrarian, and other sectoral reforms were implemented concurrently. Real wages and income have declined sharply, inflation has been reduced to low single digit levels, the real exchange rate has appreciated substantially and stabilized, and the real value of foreign trade and trade dependence in the East has fallen substantially. Restructuring and privatization of state and collective farms has been progressing rapidly, and the privatization of other enterprises in the food and agricultural chain has been going ...


Monetary Policy, Fiscal Deficit, Exchange Rate And U.S. Meat Exports, Donald J. Liu, Pin J. Chung, William H. Meyers Jan 1993

Monetary Policy, Fiscal Deficit, Exchange Rate And U.S. Meat Exports, Donald J. Liu, Pin J. Chung, William H. Meyers

Economic Staff Paper Series

Since the mid-1970s, there has been a fundamental structural change in the way that agricultural economists view the macroeconomic sector. This change began with Schuh, who pointed out the importance of exchange rates on farm prices and argued for the need to examine the agricultural sector in the context of an open world economy. Chambers and Just subsequently developed a structural econometric model for the U.S. crop sector and found significant exchange rate impacts on agricultural exports and prices. Barnett, Bessler, and Thompson constructed a reduced-form vector autoregression (VAR) model and identified a Granger-type causal relationship running from U ...


Macroeconomic Versus Market-Specific Protection: An Intertemporal Optimizing Model Of North-South Trade, Walter Enders Jan 1993

Macroeconomic Versus Market-Specific Protection: An Intertemporal Optimizing Model Of North-South Trade, Walter Enders

GATT Research Papers

If the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs reduces foreign trade barriers against U.S. farm exports, special interest groups in affected nations will seek other forms of protection. It would not be surprising if some of our trading partners used general macroeconomic policies to promote domestic production. This paper develops a model to demonstrate how the government of an importing nation might reasonably undertake macroeconomic policies designed to thwart imports. Using a two-country, overlapping generations model, the paper analyzes some of the tensions between developed and developing nations regarding intertemporal trade and capital movements. The model is designed so ...


Modeling Phased Reduction Of Distortionary Policies In The U.S. Wheat Market Under Alternative Macroeconomic Environments, B. Stephen Labson, Gordon C. Rausser Jun 1992

Modeling Phased Reduction Of Distortionary Policies In The U.S. Wheat Market Under Alternative Macroeconomic Environments, B. Stephen Labson, Gordon C. Rausser

GATT Research Papers

Throughout much of the developed world, macroeconomic policies afforded a unique period of macroeconomic stability in the two decades following World War II. As a result, concern regarding the macroeconomic linkages with food and agricultural systems largely disappeared. In the early 1970s, with the major changes in monetary policies and central bank behavior, macroeconomic linkages were once again recognized as prime factors complicating the performance of the agricultural and food systems. The roller coaster ride that agriculture experienced over the 1970s and 1980s has been significantly influenced by macroeconomic and international linkages (Rausser et al., 1966). Agriculture's prosperous condition ...


An Application Of The Computable General Equilibrium Model To Analyze U.S. Ariculture, Satheesh V. Aradhyula, K. Eswaramoorthy, Klaus Frohberg Jan 1988

An Application Of The Computable General Equilibrium Model To Analyze U.S. Ariculture, Satheesh V. Aradhyula, K. Eswaramoorthy, Klaus Frohberg

CARD Working Papers

The effects of exchange rate and capital stock changes are analyzed using a CGE model for the United States. The model is in the Walrasion tradition and is calibrated to 1982 data. Results indicate that a devaluation of the U.S. dollar has a positive effect on the agricultural sector and balance of trade, but has a negative effect on consumers.


Input Price Uncertainty And Factor Demand, S. Devadoss, E. Kwan Choi Jun 1987

Input Price Uncertainty And Factor Demand, S. Devadoss, E. Kwan Choi

CARD Working Papers

A simple two-input and one-output model is used to examine the effects of variable input price uncertainty on a quasi-fixed factor. These theoretical results, applied to a livestock firm, indicate that choice of the quasi-fixed factor depends upon the attitude of the farmer toward risk and whether the inputs are complements, substitutes, or independents.


Farm Economies Of The Plains: A Comment, William H. Meyers Jun 1987

Farm Economies Of The Plains: A Comment, William H. Meyers

CARD Working Papers

William H. Meyers comments on a paper by Belongia and Gilbert presented at the 1986 annual meetings of the Allied Social Science Association. Belongia and Gilbert analyzed the scope of farm income and debt problems in the Plains States and discussed the causes of those problems. Meyers accepts Belongia and Gilbert's evidence of a deterioration in farm financial conditions since 1980, but rejects their test of the effects of macroeconomic fluctuations on economies dependent on agricultural income. The bases of his objections are Belongia and Gilbert's use of national GNP only as an explanatory macroeconomic variable and their ...


Macroeconomic Impacts On The U.S. Agricultural Sector: A Quantitative Analysis For 1980-84, William H. Meyers, Michael D. Helmar, S. Devadoss, Robert E. Young, David Blandford Nov 1986

Macroeconomic Impacts On The U.S. Agricultural Sector: A Quantitative Analysis For 1980-84, William H. Meyers, Michael D. Helmar, S. Devadoss, Robert E. Young, David Blandford

CARD Working Papers

Agricultural trade problems have been receiving increased attention in the United States for the last few years. The reason is obvious. After a decade during which the value of agricultural exports grew from $8 billion annually to a peak of nearly $44 billion in 1981, both quantities and values of exports have fallen substantially. Recent U.S. Department of Agriculture (*SDA) estimates project $32 billion in farm exports in 1985. In the long history of U.S. agriculture, exports have often been a major force in agricultural prosperity and distress. It is a natural tendency, therefore, to look at export ...


Nonneutral Effects Of Money Supply On Farm And Industrial Product Prices, S. Devadoss, William H. Meyers Nov 1986

Nonneutral Effects Of Money Supply On Farm And Industrial Product Prices, S. Devadoss, William H. Meyers

CARD Working Papers

Changes in relative prices or terms of trade, i.e., the ratio of farm output to farm input or nonfarm output prices, have significant implications for the farm economy. If the prices farmers receive for their outputs increase (decrease) relative to the prices they pay for their inputs, the economic well being of farmers is enhanced (diminished). The terms of trade are likely to change if general price inflation changes. Thus, movements in general price inflation can affect farm income significantly.

Recent macroeconomics literature postulates that to the extent that general inflation can in and of itself generate relative price ...