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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

On Macroeconomic Nowcasting And Forecasting With Satellite Imagery And Convolutional Neural Networks, Adam Abate May 2019

On Macroeconomic Nowcasting And Forecasting With Satellite Imagery And Convolutional Neural Networks, Adam Abate

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This research asks whether satellite imagery of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) can aid in the prediction of unemployment over different time horizons. I make these predictions using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). The data consist of 1735 Landsat Analysis Ready Data (ARD) images from 1990 to 2011, each averaged quarterly with a subject that is one of 27 MSAs. I match each quarterly image with a known value of unemployment collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ten training configurations use different combinations of data augmentation and image preprocessing. I find CNN training accuracy around 10 to 20 times the accuracy ...


Comparison Of Global Solution Methods To A Zero Lower Bound Model, Emily Martell Apr 2019

Comparison Of Global Solution Methods To A Zero Lower Bound Model, Emily Martell

Undergraduate Honors Theses

During the Great Recession, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered policy rates to zero, introducing a kink in its policy rule and calling into question traditional solution methods. Recent papers have solved fully nonlinear models that treats the zero lower bound (ZLB) as an occasionally binding constraint, but there is little work analyzing the relative performance of these nonlinear solution methods. Two proposed solution methods are policy function iteration with linear interpolation and regime-indexed policy function iteration with Chebyshev polynomial approximation. We examine the impact of making the policy functions conditional on whether the ZLB binds. Our solution algorithm uses ...


Mathematical Studies Of Optimal Economic Growth Model With Monetary Policy, Xiang Liu Dec 2017

Mathematical Studies Of Optimal Economic Growth Model With Monetary Policy, Xiang Liu

Undergraduate Honors Theses

In this paper, efforts will be made to study an extended Neoclassic economic growth model derived from Solow-Swan Model and Ramsey-Cass-Koopsman Model. Some growth models (e.g. Solow-Swan Model) attempt to explain long-run economic growth by looking at capital accumulation, labor or population growth, and in- creases in productivity, while our derived model tends to look at growth from individual household and how their choice of saving, consumption and money holdings would affect the overall economic capital accumulation over a long period of time.

First an optimal control model is set up, and a system of differential equations and algebraic ...


Interactions Between Fiscal And Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model With Regime Switching Process, Zihao Chen May 2017

Interactions Between Fiscal And Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model With Regime Switching Process, Zihao Chen

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper examines the interactions between traditional fiscal and monetary policy tools: government spending and the interest rate. Two models are used: a baseline linear model, and a Markov switching model with active/passive fiscal and monetary policy combinations. The linear model is estimated and the posterior mean parameterization is used to calibrate the regime-switching model. Sims (2002) algorithm and policy function iteration are used to solve the models, and a particle filter is used to evaluate the likelihood functions. The results show that government spending alone cannot raise inflation despite the positive effect on output. The duration of the ...


Oil Shock Effects And The Business Cycle, Collin Jones Apr 2016

Oil Shock Effects And The Business Cycle, Collin Jones

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper uses a linear projection method proposed by Jorda (2005) to model how the United States business cycle affects the response of output to positive oil price shocks. I use a nonlinear specification for oil price increases, intro- duced by Lee, Ni, and Ratti (1995), which internalizes a number of popular theories in the macroeconomic literature for the determinants of the magni- tude of the oil-output response. I first confirm the results of Lee, Ni, and Ratti (1995), that conditional expected volatility of oil price predictions at the time are important for the output response, with more recent data ...


The Middle Institutions Trap: A Parabolic Association Between Institutions And Income For Opec Countries, Jake W. Schneider Apr 2015

The Middle Institutions Trap: A Parabolic Association Between Institutions And Income For Opec Countries, Jake W. Schneider

Undergraduate Honors Theses

The literature on economic development asserts that institutions are positively associated with economic growth. Empirically I demonstrate this relationship for a sample size of 169 countries of the world when institutions (as measured by the Polity IV index) are regressed upon income (represented by log GDP per capita) in 2010. However, something fascinating occurs when the sample size is restricted to only Middle East North Africa (MENA) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) countries. In these cases, contrary to predicted outcomes posited by the literature, this relationship between income and institutions is, in fact, negative. This means that Middle ...