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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Principles Of Macroeconomics, Ernesto Garcia Iii Jun 2020

Principles Of Macroeconomics, Ernesto Garcia Iii

Open Educational Resources

No abstract provided.


Essays In Retirement Economics, Gunnar Poppe Yanez Jun 2020

Essays In Retirement Economics, Gunnar Poppe Yanez

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1

The discrepancy between the high demand for annuities predicted by economic theory and the empirical low holdings of these assets, known as the annuity puzzle, is still not completely understood in economic studies of retirement finance. This paper assesses the effect of individuals' mortality risk learning process on annuitization. I isolate this effect by building a life-cycle model in which individuals have imperfect information of their true survival probability distribution, and therefore have to update their beliefs about it in a Bayesian manner. Using data on subjective mortality by the Health and ...


Essays In Macroeconomics Of Emerging Markets, Miguel Acosta Henao Jun 2020

Essays In Macroeconomics Of Emerging Markets, Miguel Acosta Henao

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1. Law enforcement and the size of the informal sector.

I assemble new cross-country evidence showing that contrary to the standard view, the relationship between the size of the informal sector and tax rates is, at best, ambiguous. Law enforcement and informality also show no clear relation. Motivated by these findings, I augment a standard two-sector (formal and informal) small open economy model with endogenous law enforcement that depends on the size of the informal sector (measured by its assets) and government expenditure. I use a micro-dataset from Colombia to show that both taxes and law enforcement are necessary ...


Essays In Financial Economics And Applied Macroeconomics, Marius Mihai Jun 2020

Essays In Financial Economics And Applied Macroeconomics, Marius Mihai

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that cover topics in finance and macroeconomics.

Chapter 1 - Do Credit Booms Predict U.S. Recessions?

This paper investigates the role of bank credit in predicting U.S. recessions since the 1960s in the context of a bivariate probit model. A set of results emerge. First, credit booms are shown to have strong positive effects in predicting declines in the business cycle at horizons ranging from six to nine months. Second, by isolating the effect of credit booms, I identify their contributions to recession probabilities which range between three and four percentage points at ...


Essays On New Keynesian Term Premium Model With Financial Risks, Weiguo Fu Sep 2019

Essays On New Keynesian Term Premium Model With Financial Risks, Weiguo Fu

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation studies the modeling of U.S. Treasury (UST) yield curve term premia under the New Keynesian (NK) framework. Loosely speaking, term premium is the difference between a government bond’s yield for a specific tenor and the average of the expected short rates up to that tenor. The dissertation is divided into three chapters. The first chapter proposes a New Keynesianism-based macro-finance model estimated by a one-step full information maximum likelihood (FIML) method. The second chapter shows that the one-step FIML method may produce estimation biases, which result in biased expected short rates and term premia. The chapter ...


Essays On The Economic Consequences Of Capital Controls, Richard J. Nugent Iii Sep 2019

Essays On The Economic Consequences Of Capital Controls, Richard J. Nugent Iii

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters. In Chapter One, we review the literature on the economic consequences of capital controls. Capital controls are advocated as second-best policy in the presence of a pecuniary externality. Restricting capital inflows as a prudential tool during economic booms may distort the efficient allocation of capital but it invokes precautionary saving behavior so that agents do not overborrow. The financial crises that are fueled by capital market distortions can be mitigated by the use of prudential capital controls, heightened during the boom and released during the bust. The empirical evidence on capital controls has revealed ...


The Impact Of Legalization Of Marijuana On Opioid Overdose Deaths, Radhika N. Bharadwaj Feb 2019

The Impact Of Legalization Of Marijuana On Opioid Overdose Deaths, Radhika N. Bharadwaj

School of Arts & Sciences Theses

This masters’ thesis aims to examine the impact of the legalization of marijuana for recreational use on the death toll from opioid misuse in the state of Colorado. This investigation was done using the Synthetic Controls Method via data collected primarily from the CDC and IPUMS databases. The results indicate that the 2012 legalization policy in Colorado appears to reduce the number of deaths due to opioid overdoses.


Shapes And Transitions Of The Interest Rate Term Structure, Biwei Chen Feb 2019

Shapes And Transitions Of The Interest Rate Term Structure, Biwei Chen

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

I analyze different shapes of Treasury yield curves in order to better reflect and predict the U.S. economy. Since the late 1980s, macroeconomists have found that the slope of the yield curve predicts economic activity such as inflation, output growth, and recessions, but they have not fully examined the links between various shapes of yield curve and the macroeconomy. To fill the gap, I classify yield curve shapes with the U.S. Treasury yield data, detect the shape patterns over the business cycles, and map these shapes onto corresponding inflation and production states. Although the downward-sloping yield curve reliably ...


The Effect Of Outward Foreign Direct Investment On Exports In Japan During The Lost Decade, 1985-2005, Alexandros Ladas Jan 2019

The Effect Of Outward Foreign Direct Investment On Exports In Japan During The Lost Decade, 1985-2005, Alexandros Ladas

Dissertations and Theses

This study will utilize an OLS analysis of the panel data coming from various databases such as the World Bank, Federal Reserve and etc. to determine if there exists a significant correlation between the exports of Japan and its foreign direct investment (FDI) in the period of 1985-2005 with nearby trading partners of which include the countries of ASEAN, China and South Korea. In addition, a selection of supplemental factors will be used to determine if they also possess any significance with exports. These factors include: the exchange rate of the Japanese yen with the currency of the trading partner ...


Essays In New Keynesian Monetary Policy, Tzu-Hao Huang Sep 2018

Essays In New Keynesian Monetary Policy, Tzu-Hao Huang

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The dissertation consists of three Chapters. I consider New Keynesian models which involve tradeoffs between output gap and inflation variances. Such policy strategy is often referred to as flexible inflation targeting rules (e.g., Lars Svensson 2011, pp.1238-95). Taylor rules, in general, have the symbolic expression 𝑖t=𝜑x𝑥t+𝜑𝜋𝜋t+𝜑g𝑔t, where 𝑖t is the nominal interest rate at period t, 𝑥t is the target variable output gap at period t, 𝜋t is the target variable inflation rate at period t, 𝑔t is realized shock to ...


A New Keynesian Approach To Estimating Welfare Losses Under Strict And Flexible-Targeting Regimes, Shawn Weber May 2018

A New Keynesian Approach To Estimating Welfare Losses Under Strict And Flexible-Targeting Regimes, Shawn Weber

School of Arts & Sciences Theses

How do different inflation-targeting regimes affect the monetary loss-function of a central bank aiming at stabilizing inflation around an inflation target and stabilizing the real economy? Under a basic New-Keynesian framework, this paper examines the effect of inflation-targeting regimes on the monetary loss function of a central bank.


Unemployment, Inflation, And Long-Run Growth, Alexander Nunez-Torres Apr 2018

Unemployment, Inflation, And Long-Run Growth, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture covers unemployment, inflation and long-run growth.


Money, The Federal Reserve And The Monetary Policy, Alexander Nunez-Torres Apr 2018

Money, The Federal Reserve And The Monetary Policy, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

No abstract provided.


The Balance Of Payments, Exchange Rates And Aggregate Expenditure, Alexander Nunez-Torres Apr 2018

The Balance Of Payments, Exchange Rates And Aggregate Expenditure, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture examines the effects of the economy’s openness on macroeconomic policy. The three main topics covered in this lecture are: the effect of exports and imports on the Gross Domestic Product; the workings of a foreign exchange market; and the effects of exchange rates on the economy.


The Core Of Macroeconomic Theory Ii, Alexander Nunez-Torres Apr 2018

The Core Of Macroeconomic Theory Ii, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

No abstract provided.


Eco 166 Introduction To Macroeconomics, Alexander Núñez-Torres Apr 2018

Eco 166 Introduction To Macroeconomics, Alexander Núñez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

National income components and their measurement, unemployment rate, and price levels. Determinants of aggregate demand and output. Effects of government spending, taxation, and monetary policy on national income, employment, and the rate of inflation.


The Government And Fiscal Policy, Alexander Nunez-Torres Apr 2018

The Government And Fiscal Policy, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture discusses the role of fiscal policy: government spending and taxation in the economy. It examines the United States government budget.


The Core Of Macroeconomic Theory I, Alexander Nunez-Torres Apr 2018

The Core Of Macroeconomic Theory I, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture discusses the AD/AS Model, the Keynesian and neoclassical macroeconomic theories, their differences and perspectives.


The Macroeconomic Perspective Ii: The Gdp Concept, Alexander Nunez-Torres Apr 2018

The Macroeconomic Perspective Ii: The Gdp Concept, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture presents concepts related to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its calculation. It examines nominal versus real GDP.


The Macroeconomic Perspective I: Introduction To Macroeconomics, Alexander Nunez-Torres Apr 2018

The Macroeconomic Perspective I: Introduction To Macroeconomics, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture evaluates concepts of macroeconomics and distinguishes it from microeconomics. It examines the role of government as well as providing a brief history of macroeconomics.


Demand, Supply, And Market Equilibrium, Alexander Nunez-Torres Apr 2018

Demand, Supply, And Market Equilibrium, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture discusses the role of firms and households in the market as well as the circular flow. Market equilibrium, supply, demand and the concept of efficiency are also covered.


Choice In A World Of Scarcity, Alexander Nunez-Torres Apr 2018

Choice In A World Of Scarcity, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture introduces the concepts of scarcity, choice and opportunity costs. It also discusses economics systems and the role of government.


Welcome To Economics! The Scope And Method Of Economics, Alexander Nunez-Torres Apr 2018

Welcome To Economics! The Scope And Method Of Economics, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture covers concepts, definitions and methods of Economics and discusses how theories and models are used.


Macroeconomics Course Outline And Syllabus, Sean P. Macdonald Apr 2018

Macroeconomics Course Outline And Syllabus, Sean P. Macdonald

Open Educational Resources

No abstract provided.


Bayesian State Space Representation Model: Applications To Macroeconomics And International Finance, Hiroshi Morita Feb 2018

Bayesian State Space Representation Model: Applications To Macroeconomics And International Finance, Hiroshi Morita

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation develops three new econometric models using Bayesian state space representation model in order to apply to macroeconomics and international finance. It consists of 3 chapters. Chapter 1 develops a Markov mixture model of macroeconomic fundamentals to analyze the short-run dynamics of foreign exchange rates. In our model, foreign exchange rates are simultaneously determined by three parities: the interest rate parity, the inflation rate parity, and the equity return rate parity. Using four exchange rates: the U.S. dollar price of the British pound, the German mark, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian dollar, the findings are: (1) Our ...


Business Economics: Data For Decision Making, Brian Barnier, Kevin Foster Jan 2018

Business Economics: Data For Decision Making, Brian Barnier, Kevin Foster

Open Educational Resources

Syllabus for a course in data analytics for business economics, focusing on use of source data sets to answer the "why?" questions hidden in aggregate averages used in theory and "headline" news releases. Zero cost course using data available widely on the web. Optional texts are trade books available widely in libraries or used copies at low cost.


The Effect Of Changes In Racial Composition On Housing Prices: A Study Of The Most Diverse Place In The World, Youseph Anwar Dec 2017

The Effect Of Changes In Racial Composition On Housing Prices: A Study Of The Most Diverse Place In The World, Youseph Anwar

School of Arts & Sciences Theses

This study attempts to illustrate that increases in minority residents may lead to decreases in housing prices. I observe the effects of changes in racial composition on housing prices in Queens, NY from 2011-2015. The following econometric tools are implemented: a fixed effects model, quantile, hedonic, and OLS regressions.


Essays On Inequality And Macroeconomic Stability, Thomas Hauner Sep 2017

Essays On Inequality And Macroeconomic Stability, Thomas Hauner

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters. . .

Chapter 1: Aggregate Wealth and Its Distribution as Determinants of Financial Crises: Panel Evidence This essay investigates the relationship between wealth inequality and financial crises across a panel of nine advanced economies over the past 100 years. While substantiation of a role for income inequality is ambiguous in the literature, evidence is presented suggesting a unique capacity for the accumulation of assets to increase the likelihood of a future financial crisis episode. Testing long-run panel data with a reduced form, two-way fixed effects model, estimates suggest that increasing wealth inequality, in an economy with ...


Essays On The Impact Of Exchange Rate Movements On Stock Return And Country Output, Junnan Zhao Sep 2017

Essays On The Impact Of Exchange Rate Movements On Stock Return And Country Output, Junnan Zhao

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Exchange rate movements are widely believed to be a major source of uncertainty at both micro- and macro-economic levels. At the microeconomic level, corporate managers controlling risk and investors seeking to hedge their portfolios are both obviously interested in estimates of a firm’s exchange rate exposure ̶ i.e., how much of the value of a firm will be affected by exchange rate movements. At the macroeconomic level, a currency appreciation may have a contractionary effect on a country's output.

Chapter 1 tests whether the launch of the euro around 1999 significantly reduced stock market volatility and exchange rate ...


Three Essays On The European Sovereign Debt Crisis With A Special Focus On Greece, Flora Leventi Sep 2017

Three Essays On The European Sovereign Debt Crisis With A Special Focus On Greece, Flora Leventi

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters where I examine several aspects of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first chapter focuses on systemic risk. Following the financial crisis of 2007-08, both in academic as well as policy circles, much of the research has focused toward the systemic importance of financial institutions. Parallel to that research, but to somewhat lesser extent, there have been improvements in our understanding of how risk is transmitted from the financial system to the real economy. This chapter investigates a related yet distinct manifestation of systemic risk, namely systemic sovereign risk. Using data on sovereign credit ...