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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Principles Of Macroeconomics, Ernesto Garcia Iii Jun 2020

Principles Of Macroeconomics, Ernesto Garcia Iii

Open Educational Resources

No abstract provided.


Essays In Macroeconomics Of Emerging Markets, Miguel Acosta Henao Jun 2020

Essays In Macroeconomics Of Emerging Markets, Miguel Acosta Henao

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1. Law enforcement and the size of the informal sector.

I assemble new cross-country evidence showing that contrary to the standard view, the relationship between the size of the informal sector and tax rates is, at best, ambiguous. Law enforcement and informality also show no clear relation. Motivated by these findings, I augment a standard two-sector (formal and informal) small open economy model with endogenous law enforcement that depends on the size of the informal sector (measured by its assets) and government expenditure. I use a micro-dataset from Colombia to show that both taxes and law enforcement are necessary ...


Essays In Retirement Economics, Gunnar Poppe Yanez Jun 2020

Essays In Retirement Economics, Gunnar Poppe Yanez

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1

The discrepancy between the high demand for annuities predicted by economic theory and the empirical low holdings of these assets, known as the annuity puzzle, is still not completely understood in economic studies of retirement finance. This paper assesses the effect of individuals' mortality risk learning process on annuitization. I isolate this effect by building a life-cycle model in which individuals have imperfect information of their true survival probability distribution, and therefore have to update their beliefs about it in a Bayesian manner. Using data on subjective mortality by the Health and ...


Essays In Financial Economics And Applied Macroeconomics, Marius Mihai Jun 2020

Essays In Financial Economics And Applied Macroeconomics, Marius Mihai

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that cover topics in finance and macroeconomics.

Chapter 1 - Do Credit Booms Predict U.S. Recessions?

This paper investigates the role of bank credit in predicting U.S. recessions since the 1960s in the context of a bivariate probit model. A set of results emerge. First, credit booms are shown to have strong positive effects in predicting declines in the business cycle at horizons ranging from six to nine months. Second, by isolating the effect of credit booms, I identify their contributions to recession probabilities which range between three and four percentage points at ...


Imf And European Institutions During The Sovereign Debt Crisis, Ziyu Yan May 2020

Imf And European Institutions During The Sovereign Debt Crisis, Ziyu Yan

Joseph Wharton Scholars

While the European Sovereign Debt crisis presented unprecedented challenges to the European institutions in addressing the vulnerabilities of its financial sector, it gave rise to the effective cooperation between the European Commissions, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), collectively known as the Troika. This paper reviews the interactions between the IMF and the euro area official lenders in three programme countries: Greece, Portugal, and Ireland. A close examination of the lending terms changes revealed an evolving understanding of the crisis by the European institutions. This paper analyzes the impact that the IMF had on the ...


A Macroeconomic Investigation Of The Labor Market Matching Efficiency, Sarah M. Welch May 2020

A Macroeconomic Investigation Of The Labor Market Matching Efficiency, Sarah M. Welch

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The first section of this research explores how traditional measures of unemployment can mask important changes in the labor market across the business cycle. We therefore use broader definitions of unemployment to estimate time-varying job-matching efficiency rates that are consistent with vacancies and hiring activity data for the U.S. Our efficiency rates are then modeled along with employment data to study their dynamic, non-linear relationship. We find that including part-time workers for economic reasons as well as marginally attached workers helps explain the changes in employment patterns observed after the global financial crisis, emphasizing the importance of accounting for ...


Addressing Urban Income Inequality Through Education: A Case Study In Atlanta, Garrett Bronn May 2020

Addressing Urban Income Inequality Through Education: A Case Study In Atlanta, Garrett Bronn

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

For decades, the income inequality gap between the rich and poor has continued to expand dramatically, with criticism of existing education systems often at the heart of the issue. Large urban cities are commonly at the forefront of the issue, given the plethora of teacher strikes in recent years. Events such as the 11-day Chicago teacher’s strike in October of 2019 that idled academics and college prep for 350,000 students, have highlighted many current education issues (Hauck, 2019). With underfunded and poorly equipped middle and high schools, students in poor and minority neighborhoods in cities are less prepared ...


Restructuring And Forgiveness In Financial Crises D: The Japanese Financial Crisis Of The 1990s, Christian M. Mcnamara, Andrew Metrick Apr 2020

Restructuring And Forgiveness In Financial Crises D: The Japanese Financial Crisis Of The 1990s, Christian M. Mcnamara, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

In November 1997 the Japanese government confronted a problem of enormous proportions when the turmoil that had been roiling the financial markets since the collapse of a real estate and stock market asset bubble in 1990 reached a crescendo with the failure of four major financial institutions in quick succession in the space of a month. Prior to these failures, the damage done by the collapsing bubble had seemed to be limited to certain segments of the financial landscape, and the government’s response consisted largely of targeted intervention when necessary for clearly insolvent financial institutions, with a more comprehensive ...


Restructuring And Forgiveness In Financial Crises B: The Asian Crisis Of 1997, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick Apr 2020

Restructuring And Forgiveness In Financial Crises B: The Asian Crisis Of 1997, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Asia’s economy, Thailand in particular, was booming when the financial crises hit in the 1990s. However, troubles were brewing underneath the seemingly buoyant economy. With a fragile financial system and ineffective domestic government responses to these troubles, an exchange rate crisis took over Thailand, and this crisis started a financial contagion in the neighboring countries. This case reviews the background and domestic government responses to contain the crisis, and the international intervention provided by the International Monetary Fund including the assistance and the required reforms accompanying the support.


Guarantees And Capital Infusions In Response To Financial Crises C: U.S. 2009 Stress Test, Chase P. Ross, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick Apr 2020

Guarantees And Capital Infusions In Response To Financial Crises C: U.S. 2009 Stress Test, Chase P. Ross, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

When President Obama took office in 2009, the Treasury focused on restarting bank lending and repairing the ability of the banking system as a whole to perform the role of credit intermediation. In order to do so, the Treasury needed to raise public confidence that banks had sufficient buffers to withstand even a very adverse economic scenario, especially given heightened uncertainty surrounding the outlook of the U.S. economy and potential losses in the banking system. The Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP)—the so-called “stress tests”—sought to rigorously measure the resilience of the largest bank holding companies. Those found ...


Guarantees And Capital Infusions In Response To Financial Crises B: U.S. Guarantees During The Global Financial Crisis, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick Apr 2020

Guarantees And Capital Infusions In Response To Financial Crises B: U.S. Guarantees During The Global Financial Crisis, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

During 2008-09, the federal government extended multiple guarantee programs in an effort to restore the financial market and contain the panic and crisis in the market. For example, the Treasury provided a temporary guarantee program for the money market funds, the FDIC decided to stand behind certain debts and non-interest-bearing transaction accounts, and the Treasury, the FDIC, and the Federal Reserve agreed to share losses in certain assets belonging to Citigroup. This case reviews these guarantee programs implemented during the global financial crisis by the government and explores the different rationale that shaped certain design features of each program.


Reference-Dependent Preferences, Time Inconsistency, And Unfunded Pensions, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Qing Liu Apr 2020

Reference-Dependent Preferences, Time Inconsistency, And Unfunded Pensions, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Qing Liu

Economics Working Papers

In the real world, public pay-as-you-go pension (PAYG) schemes are popular and co-exist with private, retirement-saving schemes. This is true even in dynamically efficient economies where such pensions offer a lower return. The classic Aaron- Samuelson result argues that, in theory, this is impossible. Later work has shown that it may be possible if agents, left on their own, undersave due to myopia or time-inconsistency. In that case, if the government is paternalistic, a welfare rationale for PAYG pensions arises but only if voluntary retirement saving is fully crowded out because of a binding borrowing constraint. This paper generalizes the ...


Trade Financing In Emerging Markets, Jamie L. Morris Apr 2020

Trade Financing In Emerging Markets, Jamie L. Morris

Senior Theses

Businesses need capital to initiate trades, drive growth, and produce profit, but unfortunately, not all companies can access to capital easily. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), although critical to the global economy, typically have trouble funding trades because of a lack of creditworthiness. This problem worsens for SMEs in emerging markets in volatile economies with political instability (“Trade finance and SMEs” 2016, p.11-21). In this study, we analyze how third-party trade finance companies can help finance trades more easily for SMEs in eight (8) emerging markets: Kenya, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Chile, Peru, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia. We use a unique ...


The Sustainability Of Child Protection Services In The Republic Of Kosovo, Shpetim Bylykbashi Mar 2020

The Sustainability Of Child Protection Services In The Republic Of Kosovo, Shpetim Bylykbashi

Capstone Collection

Today, in Kosovo, are services provided for the children most in need sustainable? Do these services have stable and long-term funding? Did the decentralization of the Kosovo government strengthen or weaken the existing child protective environment? In an attempt to answer these questions, a review of available literature was completed, as well as direct interviews conducted with relevant stakeholders engaged in Kosovo’s child protection services at both the governmental and civil society levels. The main finding of my research is that vulnerable children in Kosovo, such as children without parental care, children with special needs, and child victims of ...


Integration Of And Deliveries Among The World Zionist Organization, Israel, And Diaspora Countries: System Articulation With The Social Fabric Matrix, F. Gregory Hayden Mar 2020

Integration Of And Deliveries Among The World Zionist Organization, Israel, And Diaspora Countries: System Articulation With The Social Fabric Matrix, F. Gregory Hayden

Economics Department Faculty Publications

The religious economics (not economics of religion) concern here is the relationship between the World Zionist Organization (WZO) and Israel, which is known as a geopolitical power in its region and which is also known as an economic success story. Joseph Schumpeter and Karl Polanyi explained how the political economy of medieval Europe was influenced and guided by Christian morality. This paper extends the analysis of religious economics by using the social fabric matrix of original institutional economics to define and structure the integration of the WZO, Israel, and the Diaspora countries. This allows us to observe how to conduct ...


Job Duration And Match Characteristics Over The Business Cycle, Ismail Baydur, Toshihiko Mukoyama Feb 2020

Job Duration And Match Characteristics Over The Business Cycle, Ismail Baydur, Toshihiko Mukoyama

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the cyclical behavior of job separation and the characteristics of matches between workers and jobs. We estimate a proportional hazard model with competing risks, distinguishing between different types of separations. A higher unemployment rate at the start of an employment relationship increases the probability of job-to-job transitions, whereas its effect on employment-to-unemployment transitions is negative. We then build a simple job ladder model to interpret our empirical results. A model with two-dimensional heterogeneity in match (job) characteristics has the same qualitative features as the data. Once the model is extended to include cyclicality in the offered match ...


Basel Iii D: Swiss Finish To Basel Iii, Christian M. Mcnamara, Natalia Tente, Andrew Metrick Jan 2020

Basel Iii D: Swiss Finish To Basel Iii, Christian M. Mcnamara, Natalia Tente, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

After the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) introduced the Basel III framework in 2010, individual countries confronted the question of how best to implement the framework given their unique circumstances. Switzerland, with a banking industry that is both heavily concentrated and very large relative to the size of its overall economy, faced a special challenge. It ultimately adopted what is sometimes referred to as the “Swiss Finish” to Basel III—enhanced requirements applicable to Switzerland’s “too-big-to-fail” banks Credit Suisse and UBS that go beyond the base requirements established by the BCBS. Yet the prominent role played by relatively ...


Basel Iii A: Regulatory History, Christian M. Mcnamara, Thomas Piontek, Andrew Metrick Jan 2020

Basel Iii A: Regulatory History, Christian M. Mcnamara, Thomas Piontek, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

From the earliest efforts to mandate the amount of capital banks must maintain, regulators have grappled with how best to accomplish this task. Until the 1980s, regulation had been based largely on discretion and judgment. In the wake of two bank failures, the central bank governors of the G10 countries established the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and in 1988, the BCBS introduced a capital measurement system, Basel I. The system represented a triumph of the fixed numerical approach, however, critics worried that it was too blunt an instrument. In 1999, the BCBS issued Basel II, a proposal to ...


Jpmorgan Chase London Whale Z: Background & Overview, Arwin G. Zeissler, Rosalind Bennett, Andrew Metrick Jan 2020

Jpmorgan Chase London Whale Z: Background & Overview, Arwin G. Zeissler, Rosalind Bennett, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

In December 2011, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) instructed the bank’s Chief Investment Office to reduce the size of its Synthetic Credit Portfolio (SCP) during 2012, so that JPM could decrease its Risk-Weighted Assets as the bank prepared to adopt the impending Basel III bank capital regulations. However, the SCP traders were also told to minimize the trading costs incurred to reduce Risk-Weighted Assets, while still maintaining the opportunity to profit from unexpected corporate bankruptcies. In an attempt to balance these competing objectives, head SCP derivatives trader Bruno Iksil suggested in January ...


Incorporating Macroprudential Financial Regulation Into Monetary Policy, Aaron Klein Jan 2020

Incorporating Macroprudential Financial Regulation Into Monetary Policy, Aaron Klein

Journal of Financial Crises

This paper proposes two insights into financial regulation and monetary policy. The first enhances understanding the relationship between them, building on the automobile metaphor that describes monetary policy: when to accelerate or brake for curves miles ahead. Enhancing the metaphor, financial markets are the transmission. In a financial crisis, markets cease to function, equivalent to a transmission shifting into neutral. This explains both monetary policy’s diminished effectiveness in stimulating the economy and why the financial crisis shock to real economic output greatly exceeded central bank forecasts.

The second insight is that both excess leverage and fundamental mispricing of asset ...


The Effect Of Transparency, Independence And Accountability Of Central Banks On Disinflation Costs, Golnaz B. Motie, Joshua C. Hall Jan 2020

The Effect Of Transparency, Independence And Accountability Of Central Banks On Disinflation Costs, Golnaz B. Motie, Joshua C. Hall

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

Policymakers often want to achieve low inflation to avoid the low economic growth associated with high inflation. Reducing inflation through monetary policy (disinflation) is not costless as it can coincide with higher unemployment rates and reduced output. In this paper we use sacrifice ratios to calculate the cost of disinflation during the 1990s for 40 countries. We then study whether transparency and democratic accountability of monetary institutions reduces disinflation costs. Our empirical results suggest that more transparent central banks seem to face higher disinflation costs. This result could be because more transparent central banks have lower initial inflation rates during ...


A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis Of The Porter Hypothesis In The Chemical Industry, Maci Woyat Jan 2020

A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis Of The Porter Hypothesis In The Chemical Industry, Maci Woyat

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This paper examines whether there is evidence to support or refute the Porter Hypothesis on a high polluting industry through analyzing the effect of environmental stringency on innovation in the chemical industry. Taking data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), we use country-level data from 2003-2015, to analyze how a country’s number of Class C chemical patents is affected by their Environmental Policy Stringency (EPS) Index. Using a fixed effect model, we controlled for differences in GDP, exports, investment in research and development, market competitiveness and participation in the industry. The initial results of this regression ...


Culture Of Countries And Country-Index Crash Risk, Jason Petri Jan 2020

Culture Of Countries And Country-Index Crash Risk, Jason Petri

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Previously crash- risk studies have focused on assessing at the firm level the likelihood of a firm’s equity to crash (a rapid decline in value), apart from the dynamics of its respective country-level market. In this study, however, I examine the determinants of an overall countrylevel equity crash apart from the dynamics of the global market. I will argue that this is a very different focus of analysis that will provide valuable information to both investors and policy makers. Expansion of credit and subsequent equity-market bubbles and crashes are of particular concern to foreign direct investors (FDI), as country-level ...


An Analysis Of Excise Taxes On Wine In The United States, William A. Saunders Jan 2020

An Analysis Of Excise Taxes On Wine In The United States, William A. Saunders

Honors Theses and Capstones

Excise taxes are a form of tax that are applied specifically to certain goods, and are charged by the wholesaler to the retailer; they are then usually passed onto the consumer through price increases. Throughout the history of the United States, this form of taxation has transformed and taken on a variety of different roles before arriving at its modern role; a tool to implement certain tax systems, such as the Pigovian system, as well as to influence consumer behavior. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the purpose of excise taxes on wine within the United States by ...


Intragovernmental Autonomous Stabilizers, Alex Williams Jan 2020

Intragovernmental Autonomous Stabilizers, Alex Williams

Masters of Science in Economic Theory and Policy

We present a novel framework for understanding the relationship between the federal and state governments of the United States of America. Drawing on the experience of state government finances during and after the Great Recession in 2008, we propose the establishment of novel intragovernmental budgetary stabilization mechanisms. We draw out the flawed arguments of the existing fiscal federalism literature and demonstrate how the work of Michael Pettis and Modern Monetary Theory provide more usable insights when crafting public policy. We propose several potential policy responses and produce a counterfactual model of state finances after the Great Recession using the new ...


Does A Change In Immigration Affect The Unemployment Rate In Host Countries? Evidence From Australia, Mostafa Aboelsoud, Anas Alqudah, Eman Elish Jan 2020

Does A Change In Immigration Affect The Unemployment Rate In Host Countries? Evidence From Australia, Mostafa Aboelsoud, Anas Alqudah, Eman Elish

Economics

is study examines and evaluates the dynamic causality relationship between immigration, unemployment, wages and GDP per capita in host countries with a focus on Australia. Previous research has indicated that the economic impact of immigration is significant; nonetheless, its effect on the labour market being positive or negative is inconclusive. This study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine the dynamic short- and long-run nexus between these variables in Australia over the period 1980–2016. The paper provides clear evidence to policymakers on the positive spillover effect of immigration policies developed by the Australian government.


Credit Cards, Credit Utilization, And Consumptin, Scott Fulford, Scott Schuh Dec 2019

Credit Cards, Credit Utilization, And Consumptin, Scott Fulford, Scott Schuh

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

We use comprehensive U.S. credit bureau data to document stable consumer utilization of credit card debt over the business cycle, life-cycle, and individually quarter to quarter, despite massive variation in available credit. To explain these facts, we propose a model of life-cycle consumption with heterogeneous discounting and credit cards used for payments and consumption smoothing. Using diary data to identify payment use, the estimated model matches consumption and credit use at every frequency and suggests that around half the population has an endogenously high marginal propensity to consume. The results suggest consumer credit availability and heterogeneity of use could ...


Consumers Support A Slowing Economy, Eric Thompson Dec 2019

Consumers Support A Slowing Economy, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Nebraska will record moderate economic growth during the forecast period but will lag U.S. growth. Like the national economy, growth Nebraska’s goods producing sector will struggle. Farm incomes will be flat from 2020 to 2022 after improving this year. Manufacturing employment also is expected to drop. However, most other sectors will expand, including services, finance and construction. Projected growth rates for 2020 to 2022 are presented in Table 1.

Employment will grow by 0.6% to 0.8% per year, below the national rate. Non-farm income will grow between 3.7% and 3.8% each year. This growth ...


Is Diamond A Resource Curse For Africa?, Karli Hamrick Dec 2019

Is Diamond A Resource Curse For Africa?, Karli Hamrick

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper investigates the resource curse in diamond exporting industry in African countries. The empirical evidence about the “resource curse” is mixed in literature and almost none has been done regarding diamond. Our study aims to bridge that gap. The results suggest that diamond export is positively correlated with well-being in a group of African countries. In other words, the “resource curse” may not occur in diamond mining industry after the Kimberly Process (KP) was put in place in 2002. We argue that the KP serves as a good institution and has created good incentives for firms in the industry ...


Genetically Modified Organisms In The United States Crop Market, Toluwani V. Ogunbayode Dec 2019

Genetically Modified Organisms In The United States Crop Market, Toluwani V. Ogunbayode

Quest

Economic Analysis

Research in progress for ECON 2302: Principles of Microeconomics

Faculty Mentors: Millie D. Black, Ph.D., and Michael Latham, Ph.D.

The following paper represents research begun by students in Honors Principles of Microeconomics. The honors course introduced students to numerous economic models and methods of analysis. Students were asked to identify an economic issue or controversy related to topics studied in class and to provide a literature review relevant to their topic. Students were also asked to provide an economic analysis, discuss opposing viewpoints, present an economic evaluation of various policy options, and make a recommendation regarding ...