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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Financial Red Flags: Empirical Mapping Of Firm Political Preferences By Sector In Mexico, Ian Connors May 2019

Financial Red Flags: Empirical Mapping Of Firm Political Preferences By Sector In Mexico, Ian Connors

Master's Theses

Can the stock market be used to determine the political preferences of individual economic sectors? This paper explores the conceptual relationship between electoral outcomes and financial markets in Mexico. Specifically, it analyzes how financial markets predict the expected effects of a given political platform on the performance of firms within specific sectors. To do this, the study used event-study methodology to calculate abnormal returns on stock prices across the nine sectors listed on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores stock exchange following the historic election of leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), On July 1, 2018. However, despite the uncertainty ...


Hedge Funds In The Periphery: An Analysis Of Structures Influencing Fund Behavior In The Icelandic And Cypriot Financial Crises, Jameson K. Mah Mar 2019

Hedge Funds In The Periphery: An Analysis Of Structures Influencing Fund Behavior In The Icelandic And Cypriot Financial Crises, Jameson K. Mah

Undergraduate Economic Review

Hedge funds are often viewed from a positive or negative lens in the public and academic forum. However, both of these perspectives neglect structuralist factors. This paper analyzes the effect of these antecedent economic, political, and legal structures. I argue that these structures are at the root of hedge fund behavior, particularly during financial crises. The financial crises of two peripheral countries, Iceland and Cyprus, are used as case studies to illustrate how hedge fund involvement diverges as a result of structural factors.


The Political Economy Of Accumulation In South Africa: Resource Extraction, Financialization, And Capital Flight As Barriers To Investment And Employment Growth, Seeraj Mohamed Jan 2019

The Political Economy Of Accumulation In South Africa: Resource Extraction, Financialization, And Capital Flight As Barriers To Investment And Employment Growth, Seeraj Mohamed

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation uses a heterodox economics approach to explain poor levels of accumulation in South Africa. This approach to investment theory and models recognizes that many institutions are shaped to help people create stability in a world of fundamental uncertainty and irreversibility. Therefore, this dissertation examines the system of accumulation that developed in South Africa and its evolution. This approach to investment recognizes that beliefs and biases of people running institutions influence investment outcomes and shape ‘path dependence’.

The corporations that grew to dominate the South African economy were formed during colonialism and apartheid. They grew around a core of ...


Regulations, Governance, And Resolution Of Non-Performing Loan: Evidence From An Emerging Economy, Abu S. Amin, Mahmood Osman Iman, Mahfuja Malik Jan 2019

Regulations, Governance, And Resolution Of Non-Performing Loan: Evidence From An Emerging Economy, Abu S. Amin, Mahmood Osman Iman, Mahfuja Malik

WCOB Faculty Publications

How do banks resolve a severe bad loan problem in a capital-constrained, low-income economy when a government bailout is not an option? We address this question by examining new evidence from a sharp decline in bad loan ratios in a panel of conventional commercial banks in Bangladesh. On the aggregate level, the bad loan ratio in this market has dropped from 41% in 1999 to only 10% in 2012. We find that at a micro level, this dramatic improvement is associated with bank management quality and internal governance that were substantially enhanced during a decade of large-scale regulatory reforms. The ...


The Effect Of Us Monetary Policy Shocks On Cryptocurrency Returns, Jisung Kim Jan 2019

The Effect Of Us Monetary Policy Shocks On Cryptocurrency Returns, Jisung Kim

Undergraduate Honors Theses

I explore the effect of US monetary policy shocks on the returns of digital assets since the creation of Bitcoin. A pool of 100 cryptocurrencies are separated into three categories. The monetary policy shocks are measured with two different futures contracts, Fed fund futures and 10-Year bond futures, around a FOMC meeting announcement. With the use of a panel fixed effect model, I find that changes to both futures prices around FOMC meeting have differing effects on the returns of digital assets. In particular, my results suggest that digital assets with deeper integration of blockchain, like digital assets under the ...


What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal Jan 2019

What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the performance of Indian banks by studying the effects of recent reforms and macroeconomic events. Indian banks went through a period of reforms in the past twenty years. The impact of these reforms and major macroeconomic events has been examined using time-series analysis. Event studies offer additional perspective on the short-run effect of the events on different types of Indian banks. Although, the event dates are not all statistically significant in the time-series regressions, the demonetization of 2016 is significant in the event study analysis. Thus, while reforms and events have immediate impact on the performance of ...


A Pilot Study Of Uncertainty In Income Tax Forecasts, Andrew Joung, Benjamin Lockwood, Alex Rees-Jones Oct 2018

A Pilot Study Of Uncertainty In Income Tax Forecasts, Andrew Joung, Benjamin Lockwood, Alex Rees-Jones

Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC)

How confidently can taxpayers forecast the tax bill that they will face? We asked survey respondents to provide both point estimates and subjective probability distributions of items from the tax return that they will submit the following April. In a pilot study, consisting of a sample of 188 participants from Amazon Mechanical Turk, we find evidence of substantial uncertainty over both the final tax and its determinants. We discuss the implications of this uncertainty for both tax policy and economic modeling.


Non-Linear Time Series Modelling With Applications To Equity And Fixed Income Markets, Galyna Grynkiv Aug 2018

Non-Linear Time Series Modelling With Applications To Equity And Fixed Income Markets, Galyna Grynkiv

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

My thesis focuses on theoretical and empirical aspects of modelling time series during different financial and economic conditions. It consists of three separate chapters in which the properties of Threshold Vector Autoregressive Model (TVAR) models are addressed with subsequent applications to equity and fixed income markets. In the first chapter, which is a joint work with my supervisor Lars Stentoft, we examine the steady state properties of the TVAR model. Assuming the trigger variable is exogenous and the regime process follows a Bernoulli distribution, we derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of a stationary distribution. The derived stationarity ...


Essays In Business Cycles And Asset Pricing, Ruiyang Hu May 2018

Essays In Business Cycles And Asset Pricing, Ruiyang Hu

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates several key macroeconomic and asset pricing topics, with a particular interest in exploring the underlying driving forces of business cycles and asset market fluctuations. The dissertation includes three chapters, with the first two chapters solo-authored by me and the third chapter co-authored with Dr. Carlos Zarazaga.

The first chapter develops a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model, and exploits Bayesian inference methods to investigate the major sources of fluctuations in aggregate variables and asset prices. Taking into account the possibility that the growth of total factor productivity, labor-augmenting technology and investment-specific technology might consist of permanent and ...


Public Principles And Economic Legacy, Stanley Schwartz Apr 2018

Public Principles And Economic Legacy, Stanley Schwartz

Channels: Where Disciplines Meet

2018 will mark the 60th anniversary of the publication of Public Principles of Public Debt. The Nobel-prize winning economist’s first book conflicted with the Keynesian orthodoxy of the day, and added fresh ideas to an ongoing debate over the fundamentals of public debt theory. This paper seeks to outline the dialogue among leading economists surrounding public debt since the publication of Public Principles of Public Debt, examining the major schools of thought and their development. The ideas of John Maynard Keynes, James Buchanan, and Richard Barro will receive attention, without neglecting other significant contributions. The paper will conclude ...


Entrepreneurship Education Empowers Youth To Change Their Lives, Marianna Brashear, Jason Riddle Mar 2018

Entrepreneurship Education Empowers Youth To Change Their Lives, Marianna Brashear, Jason Riddle

National Youth-At-Risk Conference Savannah

The Foundation for Economic Education (FEE) aims at equipping Title 1 schools with free, hands-on, engaging materials that any teacher can facilitate either individually or in a classroom setting with no background in entrepreneurship necessary. These versatile lessons, courses, and workshops teach the entrepreneurial mindset optimizing opportunities for grades 8-12 students no matter which life/career path they choose.


Bayesian State Space Representation Model: Applications To Macroeconomics And International Finance, Hiroshi Morita Feb 2018

Bayesian State Space Representation Model: Applications To Macroeconomics And International Finance, Hiroshi Morita

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation develops three new econometric models using Bayesian state space representation model in order to apply to macroeconomics and international finance. It consists of 3 chapters. Chapter 1 develops a Markov mixture model of macroeconomic fundamentals to analyze the short-run dynamics of foreign exchange rates. In our model, foreign exchange rates are simultaneously determined by three parities: the interest rate parity, the inflation rate parity, and the equity return rate parity. Using four exchange rates: the U.S. dollar price of the British pound, the German mark, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian dollar, the findings are: (1) Our ...


International Reserves And Rollover Risk, Javier Bianchi, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez Jan 2018

International Reserves And Rollover Risk, Javier Bianchi, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez

Leonardo Martinez

No abstract provided.


Efficacy Of Blended Finance In Climate Change Infrastructure Projects, Christian A. Butts Jan 2018

Efficacy Of Blended Finance In Climate Change Infrastructure Projects, Christian A. Butts

Wharton Research Scholars

As the conversations surrounding climate change prevention and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) financing grow in importance in the 21st century, so too do the conversations around the intersections of solutions around the topics. Blended financing has been utilized in several different forms over the past decade or so to tackle the largest problems in the global economy set out by the United Nation’s SDGs. While the tool has been leveraged for several of these Sustainable Development Goals, it has been particularly useful in attracting private investment for environmental sustainability-focused projects via the programs in place at several of ...


Assessing The Effectiveness Of The Federal Reserve’S Quantitative Easing Policy In Lowering Long-Term Interest Rates, Lee Philip Perry Jan 2018

Assessing The Effectiveness Of The Federal Reserve’S Quantitative Easing Policy In Lowering Long-Term Interest Rates, Lee Philip Perry

Senior Projects Spring 2018

This project looks at the effectiveness of Quantitative Easing on lowering long-term interest rates. To come up with an answer I look through three separate channels in which QE works to lower long-term rates: the speculation channel, inflations expectation channel, and portfolio balance channel. In examining these channels and their respective effects, I combine relative channel and general economic theory with data relative to each channel such as long-term yields, inflation expectation data, public holdings of federal debt, and much more in order to understand whether QE was at the forefront of the reduction in yields. Through these channels, we ...


Does Financial Liberalization Increase Corruption?: Evidence From A Panel Analysis, Pranjal Sudhir Ghate Jan 2018

Does Financial Liberalization Increase Corruption?: Evidence From A Panel Analysis, Pranjal Sudhir Ghate

Senior Projects Spring 2018

This project investigates whether financial liberalization increases corruption on a global level. Arguments put forward by international institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF claim that financial globalization will reduce corruption. However, the experience of India suggests that opening up financial markets might have increased corruption. This project tests whether this experience is generalizable worldwide. I find evidence for the conjecture that financial liberalization increased corruption in a panel analysis using random effects and lagged independent variable.


Three Essays On Credit Markets And The Macroeconomy, Timothy P. Bianco Jan 2018

Three Essays On Credit Markets And The Macroeconomy, Timothy P. Bianco

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

Historically, credit market conditions have been shown to impact economic activity, at times severely. For instance, in the late 2000s, the United States experienced a financial crisis that seized domestic and foreign credit markets. The ensuing lack of access to credit brought about a steep decline in output and a sluggish recovery. Accordingly, policymakers commonly take steps to mitigate the effects of adverse credit market conditions and, at times, conduct unconventional monetary policy once traditional policy tools become ineffective. This dissertation is a collection of essays regarding monetary policy, the flow of credit, financial crises, and the macroeconomy. Specifically, I ...


Three Essays On Exchange Rate And Capital Controls, Yaorong Lou Jan 2018

Three Essays On Exchange Rate And Capital Controls, Yaorong Lou

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation consists of essays that study exchange rate pass-through, China’s de facto exchange rate regime, and China’s capital controls.

The first essay studies exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) by using a set of data from ten countries including four advanced economies and six Asian emerging markets. The price indices used in this essay include consumer price, producer price, import price and export price indices. While most literature only include the import price index, this essay also puts emphasis on the export price index. It investigates the asymmetry in the ERPT between depreciation and appreciation of domestic currency by ...


Essays In Financial Economics: Announcement Effects In Fixed Income Markets, James J. Forest Jan 2018

Essays In Financial Economics: Announcement Effects In Fixed Income Markets, James J. Forest

Doctoral Dissertations

ABSTRACT

ESSAYS IN FINANCIAL ECONOMICS: ANNOUNCEMENT EFFECTS IN FIXED INCOME MARKETS

PHD IN FINANCE MAY 2018

JAMES J FOREST

B.A., FRAMINGHAM STATE UNIVERSITY

M.S., NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY

Ph.D., UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS – AMHERST

Directed by: Professor Hossein B. Kazemi

This dissertation demonstrates the use of empirical techniques for dealing with modeling issues that arise when analyzing announcement effects in fixed income markets. It describes empirical challenges in achieving unbiased and efficient parameter estimates and shows the importance of modelling a wide range of macroeconomic announcement effects to avoid omitted variable bias. Employing techniques common in Macroeconomics, financial market researchers ...


The Impact Of Government Debt On Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence From G7 And Asean Countries, Amani Ahmed Alzahrani Jan 2018

The Impact Of Government Debt On Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence From G7 And Asean Countries, Amani Ahmed Alzahrani

Masters Theses

Government debt continues to be a critical economic policy issue, which largely affects both developed and developing countries, due to elevated level of debt. From a general viewpoint, government debt is a crucial feature of a country's financial system and a major indicator that contributes to the formation of a country's reputation in the international market.

This paper investigates the impact of government debt on certain macroeconomic and wellbeing indicators in a group of industrialized and developing countries. That is, the study seeks to examine how government debt influences GDP per capita, domestic and foreign investment, and HDI ...


Out-Of-Pocket Cost For Individuals Being Treated For Opioid Dependence In Rutland County, Vermont, Christopher T. Veal Jan 2018

Out-Of-Pocket Cost For Individuals Being Treated For Opioid Dependence In Rutland County, Vermont, Christopher T. Veal

Family Medicine Clerkship Student Projects

Each day more than 140 Americans die from drug overdoses, 91 specifically due to opioids. In Vermont, more than 50 people die each year from opioid poisoning. With insurance coverage being a critical component of Opioid Dependence Recovery, many people seeking treatment are unaware of the financial barriers to recovery- namely the out-of-pocket costs associated with treatment. This study sought to provide insight on the financial impact of Opioid Dependence Treatment on the patient, and provide financial assistance information to the Rutland County community.


College: Making It The Right Choice, Daniel J. Dunn Dec 2017

College: Making It The Right Choice, Daniel J. Dunn

Honors Theses AY 17/18

This research paper is a macroeconomic analysis of the US higher education system with a financial twist to it. It begins by stating the problem with the US higher education system: tuition costs are high, public funding is decreasing, and therefore student debt numbers are almost unrecoverable. Next, it analyzes options for an 18-year old high school graduate toward attending (or not attending) college as a financial investment by using net present value calculations. These numbers help to shed further light on the aforementioned problem, and the paper closes with a proposed policy on how the US government already spends ...


Essays On Inequality And Macroeconomic Stability, Thomas Hauner Sep 2017

Essays On Inequality And Macroeconomic Stability, Thomas Hauner

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters. . .

Chapter 1: Aggregate Wealth and Its Distribution as Determinants of Financial Crises: Panel Evidence This essay investigates the relationship between wealth inequality and financial crises across a panel of nine advanced economies over the past 100 years. While substantiation of a role for income inequality is ambiguous in the literature, evidence is presented suggesting a unique capacity for the accumulation of assets to increase the likelihood of a future financial crisis episode. Testing long-run panel data with a reduced form, two-way fixed effects model, estimates suggest that increasing wealth inequality, in an economy with ...


Privately Issued Money In The Us, Matthew Jaremski Sep 2017

Privately Issued Money In The Us, Matthew Jaremski

Economics Faculty Working Papers

In recent years, there has been a revival of privately issued money. Due to the general lack of successful or even widely circulating private currency, it can be challenging to get a clear view of its efficiency using modern data. The U.S. historical period, however, offers a unique environment to examine the topic as private bank money made up a sizable portion of the money supply. Moreover, the period presents a wide range of regulation, including spans with and without the presence of a central bank or monetary authority. This chapter begins by highlighting the general history of privately ...


Three Essays On The European Sovereign Debt Crisis With A Special Focus On Greece, Flora Leventi Sep 2017

Three Essays On The European Sovereign Debt Crisis With A Special Focus On Greece, Flora Leventi

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters where I examine several aspects of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first chapter focuses on systemic risk. Following the financial crisis of 2007-08, both in academic as well as policy circles, much of the research has focused toward the systemic importance of financial institutions. Parallel to that research, but to somewhat lesser extent, there have been improvements in our understanding of how risk is transmitted from the financial system to the real economy. This chapter investigates a related yet distinct manifestation of systemic risk, namely systemic sovereign risk. Using data on sovereign credit ...


The Relative Importance Of Macroeconomic Shocks, Regional Shocks And Idiosyncratic Risk On Large And Small Banks, Jack R. Fischer, Joseph E. Mcphail, Nathan Rodrigues, Peter Orazem Jul 2017

The Relative Importance Of Macroeconomic Shocks, Regional Shocks And Idiosyncratic Risk On Large And Small Banks, Jack R. Fischer, Joseph E. Mcphail, Nathan Rodrigues, Peter Orazem

Economics Working Papers

Mandatory stress testing has been acclaimed by banking regulators as a key response to preventing future financial crises. Each year banks in the United States with over $50 Billion in assets must perform a Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) . Banks with over $10 Billion are subject to Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing (DFAST). This study examne the relative importance of international or national macroeconomic shocks, state-level shocks, and idiosyncratic shocks on mortgage rate charge-offs for the universe of all banks for the 2002-2014 period. We find tha banks with over $10 billion in assets have charge-off rates that are very ...


Three Essays In Financial Economics, Qianying Zhang May 2017

Three Essays In Financial Economics, Qianying Zhang

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The first paper revisits the link between interest rates and corporate bond credit spreads by applying Rigobon’s (2003) heteroskedasticity identification methodology. The second paper investigates the assumption that financial asset prices including stocks and bonds, reflect intrinsic value. The third paper decomposes the stock price into fundamental permanent, fundamental transitory, and non-fundamental shocks in order to explore the determinants of stock price fluctuations.


Financing And Productivity: Evidence From Indian Manufacturing Industry, Tingyi Wu May 2017

Financing And Productivity: Evidence From Indian Manufacturing Industry, Tingyi Wu

Master's Theses

India grows rapidly in recent years, not to mention its high-technology industry. What are secrets behind this fast-growing situation? This paper intends to find the answer using a firm-level panel data in India and examine the loan-productivity relationship via both contemporaneous and lagged models. I find positive and statistically significant results that loans play an important role in firms’ performances.


The Impact Of Money Supply And Electronic Money: Empirical Evidence From Central Bank In China, Rui Qin May 2017

The Impact Of Money Supply And Electronic Money: Empirical Evidence From Central Bank In China, Rui Qin

Applied Economics Theses

The purpose of this paper is to study the electronic money's influence on the money supply as well as the power of the central bank. We show in an illustrative theoretical model that electronic money will impact on money supply, especially affect M0 and M1. Using data of central bank in China during 1990 to 2010 and applying ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models, we find robust evidence that electronic money has a negative impact on M0, but a positive impact on M1. In addition, the central bank's abilities to control money supply can be affected by the ...


The Effects Of Commodity Disturbances On Open Economics, Richard Whitaker Feb 2017

The Effects Of Commodity Disturbances On Open Economics, Richard Whitaker

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates the effects of commodity disturbances on underlying economies. The analysis conducted in this dissertation comprises of two main themes. The first is investigating which commodity disturbances affect a country's GDP. I examine twenty three OECD countries and nineteen primary commodities in the energy, metal, food and timber sectors using a New Keynesian model that was estimated using the DSGE method. It was found the oil disturbances and to a lesser extend natural gas were the only commodity disturbances that affect a country's GDP. Also, it was found that a country's openness plays an important ...