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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Financial Red Flags: Empirical Mapping Of Firm Political Preferences By Sector In Mexico, Ian Connors May 2019

Financial Red Flags: Empirical Mapping Of Firm Political Preferences By Sector In Mexico, Ian Connors

Master's Theses

Can the stock market be used to determine the political preferences of individual economic sectors? This paper explores the conceptual relationship between electoral outcomes and financial markets in Mexico. Specifically, it analyzes how financial markets predict the expected effects of a given political platform on the performance of firms within specific sectors. To do this, the study used event-study methodology to calculate abnormal returns on stock prices across the nine sectors listed on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores stock exchange following the historic election of leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), On July 1, 2018. However, despite the uncertainty ...


Essays On Convex Weighting For Global Vector Autoregressive Models, Garrison Leach May 2019

Essays On Convex Weighting For Global Vector Autoregressive Models, Garrison Leach

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on studying the impact that weighting schemes can have on forecasting performance and dynamic analysis in global vector autoregressive (GVAR) models. The first chapter discusses an existing gap in the literature regarding weighting scheme choice and develops a simple, yet powerful method for defining richer spatial linkages in a way that doesn’t sacrifice economic context. The new technique called convex weighting, extends the set of available options for defining spatial linkages in models that handle the curse of dimensionality via compression and offers a justifiable approach to alleviating uncertainty. The second and third chapters apply the ...


The Role Of Income Inequality As A Predictor Of Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, Daniel Friedberg Apr 2019

The Role Of Income Inequality As A Predictor Of Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, Daniel Friedberg

Student Scholar Showcase

The role of income inequality in relation to gross domestic product is of great importance in modern time. Income inequality is a pressing phenomenon in the fields of economics, politics, and sociology, while Gross Domestic Product is the benchmark statistic in measuring the health of any economy. But how well does income inequality serve as a predictor for the level of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP per capita within a nation? This cross-sectional study determines that the GINI Index has no significant statistical relationship with PPP GDP per capita level. While income inequality is a major economic variable that contributes ...


Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin Jan 2019

Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin

SMU Data Science Review

Current models for predicting personal consumption expenditures (PCE) employ statistical techniques and rely upon traditional economic features. We compare vector autoregression and random forest regression models using traditional economic features as inputs to predict PCE. Additionally, we develop novel features derived from the earnings call transcripts of publicly traded U.S. companies using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. These new features reduce the mean square error (MSE) of the vector autoregression model by 7% and the random forest model by 23%. We find the random forest models outperformed the vector autoregression models, with a MSE reduction of 68%. We conclude ...


The Effect Of Us Monetary Policy Shocks On Cryptocurrency Returns, Jisung Kim Jan 2019

The Effect Of Us Monetary Policy Shocks On Cryptocurrency Returns, Jisung Kim

Undergraduate Honors Theses

I explore the effect of US monetary policy shocks on the returns of digital assets since the creation of Bitcoin. A pool of 100 cryptocurrencies are separated into three categories. The monetary policy shocks are measured with two different futures contracts, Fed fund futures and 10-Year bond futures, around a FOMC meeting announcement. With the use of a panel fixed effect model, I find that changes to both futures prices around FOMC meeting have differing effects on the returns of digital assets. In particular, my results suggest that digital assets with deeper integration of blockchain, like digital assets under the ...


Accounting For Agent Heterogeneity In Market And Policy Analysis, Konstantinos Giannakas Jan 2019

Accounting For Agent Heterogeneity In Market And Policy Analysis, Konstantinos Giannakas

Zea E-Books

doi:10.13014/K2416V8V

This book presents a multi-market framework of market and policy analysis that explicitly accounts for the empirically relevant heterogeneity in consumer preferences and producer characteristics. The explicit consideration of consumer and producer heterogeneity represents a significant departure from the representative consumer and producer that have been at the center of most of the literature on market and policy analysis, and enables the distributional impacts of changes in market conditions and policies to be fully identified. The framework is used to analyze the system-wide market and welfare impacts of a number of changes in market conditions (like ...


Non-Linear Time Series Modelling With Applications To Equity And Fixed Income Markets, Galyna Grynkiv Aug 2018

Non-Linear Time Series Modelling With Applications To Equity And Fixed Income Markets, Galyna Grynkiv

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

My thesis focuses on theoretical and empirical aspects of modelling time series during different financial and economic conditions. It consists of three separate chapters in which the properties of Threshold Vector Autoregressive Model (TVAR) models are addressed with subsequent applications to equity and fixed income markets. In the first chapter, which is a joint work with my supervisor Lars Stentoft, we examine the steady state properties of the TVAR model. Assuming the trigger variable is exogenous and the regime process follows a Bernoulli distribution, we derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of a stationary distribution. The derived stationarity ...


Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith May 2018

Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

There is a growing interest in allowing for asymmetry in the density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. 
In multivariate time series, this can be achieved with a copula model, where both serial and cross-sectional dependence is captured by a copula function, and the margins are nonparametric. Yet most existing copulas cannot capture heteroskedasticity well, which is a feature of many economic and financial time series. To do so, we propose a new copula created by the inversion of a multivariate unobserved component stochastic volatility model, and show how to estimate it using Bayesian methods. We fit the copula model to real-time ...


The Economic Impacts Of A U.S. Withdrawal From Nafta: A Cge Analysis, Jonathan Liu May 2018

The Economic Impacts Of A U.S. Withdrawal From Nafta: A Cge Analysis, Jonathan Liu

Undergraduate Economic Review

The aim of this study is to examine the economic impacts of a U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on Canada, Mexico and the United States. The shocks simulate scenarios in which the U.S instates penalizing tariff rates on NAFTA countries, a trade war between NAFTA members and a tariff reset to the WTO MFN rates. The effects of these tariff structures are analyzed under the framework of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a focus on macroeconomic variables and welfare. The findings show that, in all iterations, Mexico’s economy takes a ...


Does Debt Matter?, Luhan Li May 2018

Does Debt Matter?, Luhan Li

Applied Economics Theses

National debt is a popular topic, since people have a lot of different views on national debt. For example, many people think that there is a positive relationship between national debt and GDP per capita. In other words, the national debt has also increased with the growth of GDP per capita. However, some people feel that there is an inverse relationship between them, so much so that the topic has been discussed. Based on my interest in this topic, I decided to discuss this question. This paper will discuss their influence and importance by analyzing national debt, GDP per capita ...


The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Price Of Gold, Yunhao Sun May 2018

The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Price Of Gold, Yunhao Sun

Applied Economics Theses

My thesis is that macro factors have been important to the change of the gold price, but have had a differential impact in three factors: Gross Global Product (GGP), real interest rate, and U.S. dollar index (USDI). I estimated the 1st difference of the gold model to determine the impact of macro factors on the price of gold per quarter. The model was estimated using the OLS approach the sample size was 148. I make use of data from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic data. The result was that 1st difference model had statistically insignificant ...


Aiding To Repair: An Analysis On The Impact Of Foreign Aid In Rwanda After The 1994 Genocide, Mary Atta-Dakwa Apr 2018

Aiding To Repair: An Analysis On The Impact Of Foreign Aid In Rwanda After The 1994 Genocide, Mary Atta-Dakwa

International Relations Honors Papers

Between April 1994 to July 1994, about 1 million Hutus and Tutsis were murdered in the Rwandan genocide. The genocide not only severely declined the population of Rwandans, but largely impacted its infrastructure, government, and economy. After the genocide, about $15 billion US dollars was sent to provide humanitarian aid. Post-genocide Rwanda has seen a significant growth in its economy; however, speculators may question if the economic growth is attributed to the foreign aid it received after the 1994 genocide. This paper seeks to examine the impact of foreign aid on post-war reconstruction on Rwanda as a case study.


Monetary Policy At The Zero Lower Bound: Implications Of High Costs Of Credit During A Recession, Louisa Kammerer Apr 2018

Monetary Policy At The Zero Lower Bound: Implications Of High Costs Of Credit During A Recession, Louisa Kammerer

Senior Theses and Projects

This paper examines the challenges policymaker (and firms) encounter when confronted by a recession at the zero lower bound, when traditional monetary policy is ineffective in the face of deteriorated balance sheets and high costs of credit. Within the larger body of literature, this paper focuses on the cost of credit during a recession, which constrains smaller firms from borrowing and investing, thus magnifying the contraction. Extending and revising a model originally developed by Walker (2010) and estimated by Pandey and Ramirez (2012), this study uses a Vector Error Correction Model to analyze the effects of relevant economic and financial ...


Entrepreneurship Education Empowers Youth To Change Their Lives, Marianna Brashear, Jason Riddle Mar 2018

Entrepreneurship Education Empowers Youth To Change Their Lives, Marianna Brashear, Jason Riddle

National Youth-At-Risk Conference Savannah

The Foundation for Economic Education (FEE) aims at equipping Title 1 schools with free, hands-on, engaging materials that any teacher can facilitate either individually or in a classroom setting with no background in entrepreneurship necessary. These versatile lessons, courses, and workshops teach the entrepreneurial mindset optimizing opportunities for grades 8-12 students no matter which life/career path they choose.


Bayesian State Space Representation Model: Applications To Macroeconomics And International Finance, Hiroshi Morita Feb 2018

Bayesian State Space Representation Model: Applications To Macroeconomics And International Finance, Hiroshi Morita

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation develops three new econometric models using Bayesian state space representation model in order to apply to macroeconomics and international finance. It consists of 3 chapters. Chapter 1 develops a Markov mixture model of macroeconomic fundamentals to analyze the short-run dynamics of foreign exchange rates. In our model, foreign exchange rates are simultaneously determined by three parities: the interest rate parity, the inflation rate parity, and the equity return rate parity. Using four exchange rates: the U.S. dollar price of the British pound, the German mark, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian dollar, the findings are: (1) Our ...


The Road Ahead For Chinese Soes, Jingyu Mao Jan 2018

The Road Ahead For Chinese Soes, Jingyu Mao

Senior Projects Spring 2018

Many Chinese State Owned Enterprises are facing problems of over-capacity and inefficient productivity. These problems have contributed to the slowdown of Chinese economic growth. Some people believe that this is the time for SOEs to improve their productivity and financial system in order to be more efficient to support future Chinese economic growth. However, the central government has decided to not reform the current SOE system and continue funding SOEs in order to let them play an important role in the "Belt and Road Initiative." Many people think that this is a way to vindicate SOEs, or to excuse the ...


Does Financial Liberalization Increase Corruption?: Evidence From A Panel Analysis, Pranjal Sudhir Ghate Jan 2018

Does Financial Liberalization Increase Corruption?: Evidence From A Panel Analysis, Pranjal Sudhir Ghate

Senior Projects Spring 2018

This project investigates whether financial liberalization increases corruption on a global level. Arguments put forward by international institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF claim that financial globalization will reduce corruption. However, the experience of India suggests that opening up financial markets might have increased corruption. This project tests whether this experience is generalizable worldwide. I find evidence for the conjecture that financial liberalization increased corruption in a panel analysis using random effects and lagged independent variable.


Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Essay 2: Energy), Eric S. Peters Jan 2018

Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Essay 2: Energy), Eric S. Peters

Select or Award-Winning Individual Scholarship

In 2014 the European Union, in concert with a number of other nations, enacted multiple rounds of sanctions against the Russian Federation. These sanctions were implemented due to the perceived role of the Russian Federation in the Ukrainian Euro Maiden Revolution of February 2014, and the subsequent annexation of the Crimean region. The following work investigates the resulting impacts of these sanctions on V4 (Czech, Hungarian, Polish, & Slovak) economies before ultimately concluding sanctions did not result in long term economic harm to the respective nations. The work is divided into 6 essays (Econometric Analyses, Energy, Financial Services & Governance, Defense & Dual-Use ...


Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Essay 3: Financial Services & Governance), Eric S. Peters Jan 2018

Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Essay 3: Financial Services & Governance), Eric S. Peters

Select or Award-Winning Individual Scholarship

In 2014 the European Union, in concert with a number of other nations, enacted multiple rounds of sanctions against the Russian Federation. These sanctions were implemented due to the perceived role of the Russian Federation in the Ukrainian Euro Maiden Revolution of February 2014, and the subsequent annexation of the Crimean region. The following work investigates the resulting impacts of these sanctions on V4 (Czech, Hungarian, Polish, & Slovak) economies before ultimately concluding sanctions did not result in long term economic harm to the respective nations. The work is divided into 6 essays (Econometric Analyses, Energy, Financial Services & Governance, Defense & Dual-Use ...


Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Essay 4: Defense & Dual-Use), Eric S. Peters Jan 2018

Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Essay 4: Defense & Dual-Use), Eric S. Peters

Select or Award-Winning Individual Scholarship

In 2014 the European Union, in concert with a number of other nations, enacted multiple rounds of sanctions against the Russian Federation. These sanctions were implemented due to the perceived role of the Russian Federation in the Ukrainian Euro Maiden Revolution of February 2014, and the subsequent annexation of the Crimean region. The following work investigates the resulting impacts of these sanctions on V4 (Czech, Hungarian, Polish, & Slovak) economies before ultimately concluding sanctions did not result in long term economic harm to the respective nations. The work is divided into 6 essays (Econometric Analyses, Energy, Financial Services & Governance, Defense & Dual-Use ...


Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Essay 5: Agriculture), Eric S. Peters Jan 2018

Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Essay 5: Agriculture), Eric S. Peters

Select or Award-Winning Individual Scholarship

In 2014 the European Union, in concert with a number of other nations, enacted multiple rounds of sanctions against the Russian Federation. These sanctions were implemented due to the perceived role of the Russian Federation in the Ukrainian Euro Maiden Revolution of February 2014, and the subsequent annexation of the Crimean region. The following work investigates the resulting impacts of these sanctions on V4 (Czech, Hungarian, Polish, & Slovak) economies before ultimately concluding sanctions did not result in long term economic harm to the respective nations. The work is divided into 6 essays (Econometric Analyses, Energy, Financial Services & Governance, Defense & Dual-Use ...


Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Essay 6: Policy Recommendations), Eric S. Peters Jan 2018

Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Essay 6: Policy Recommendations), Eric S. Peters

Select or Award-Winning Individual Scholarship

In 2014 the European Union, in concert with a number of other nations, enacted multiple rounds of sanctions against the Russian Federation. These sanctions were implemented due to the perceived role of the Russian Federation in the Ukrainian Euro Maiden Revolution of February 2014, and the subsequent annexation of the Crimean region. The following work investigates the resulting impacts of these sanctions on V4 (Czech, Hungarian, Polish, & Slovak) economies before ultimately concluding sanctions did not result in long term economic harm to the respective nations. The work is divided into 6 essays (Econometric Analyses, Energy, Financial Services & Governance, Defense & Dual-Use ...


Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Preface), Eric S. Peters Jan 2018

Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Preface), Eric S. Peters

Select or Award-Winning Individual Scholarship

In 2014 the European Union, in concert with a number of other nations, enacted multiple rounds of sanctions against the Russian Federation. These sanctions were implemented due to the perceived role of the Russian Federation in the Ukrainian Euro Maiden Revolution of February 2014, and the subsequent annexation of the Crimean region. The following work investigates the resulting impacts of these sanctions on V4 (Czech, Hungarian, Polish, & Slovak) economies before ultimately concluding sanctions did not result in long term economic harm to the respective nations. The work is divided into 6 essays (Econometric Analyses, Energy, Financial Services & Governance, Defense & Dual-Use ...


Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Essay 1: Econometric Analyses), Eric S. Peters Jan 2018

Exploring The Visegrád-Russia Connection: Understanding The Political And Economic Ramifications Of Sanction Policies Four Years Later (Essay 1: Econometric Analyses), Eric S. Peters

Select or Award-Winning Individual Scholarship

In 2014 the European Union, in concert with a number of other nations, enacted multiple rounds of sanctions against the Russian Federation. These sanctions were implemented due to the perceived role of the Russian Federation in the Ukrainian Euro Maiden Revolution of February 2014, and the subsequent annexation of the Crimean region. The following work investigates the resulting impacts of these sanctions on V4 (Czech, Hungarian, Polish, & Slovak) economies before ultimately concluding sanctions did not result in long term economic harm to the respective nations. The work is divided into 6 essays (Econometric Analyses, Energy, Financial Services & Governance, Defense & Dual-Use ...


Essays In Financial Economics: Announcement Effects In Fixed Income Markets, James J. Forest Jan 2018

Essays In Financial Economics: Announcement Effects In Fixed Income Markets, James J. Forest

Doctoral Dissertations

ABSTRACT

ESSAYS IN FINANCIAL ECONOMICS: ANNOUNCEMENT EFFECTS IN FIXED INCOME MARKETS

PHD IN FINANCE MAY 2018

JAMES J FOREST

B.A., FRAMINGHAM STATE UNIVERSITY

M.S., NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY

Ph.D., UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS – AMHERST

Directed by: Professor Hossein B. Kazemi

This dissertation demonstrates the use of empirical techniques for dealing with modeling issues that arise when analyzing announcement effects in fixed income markets. It describes empirical challenges in achieving unbiased and efficient parameter estimates and shows the importance of modelling a wide range of macroeconomic announcement effects to avoid omitted variable bias. Employing techniques common in Macroeconomics, financial market researchers ...


The Impact Of Government Debt On Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence From G7 And Asean Countries, Amani Ahmed Alzahrani Jan 2018

The Impact Of Government Debt On Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence From G7 And Asean Countries, Amani Ahmed Alzahrani

Masters Theses

Government debt continues to be a critical economic policy issue, which largely affects both developed and developing countries, due to elevated level of debt. From a general viewpoint, government debt is a crucial feature of a country's financial system and a major indicator that contributes to the formation of a country's reputation in the international market.

This paper investigates the impact of government debt on certain macroeconomic and wellbeing indicators in a group of industrialized and developing countries. That is, the study seeks to examine how government debt influences GDP per capita, domestic and foreign investment, and HDI ...


The Effect Of Changes In Racial Composition On Housing Prices: A Study Of The Most Diverse Place In The World, Youseph Anwar Dec 2017

The Effect Of Changes In Racial Composition On Housing Prices: A Study Of The Most Diverse Place In The World, Youseph Anwar

School of Arts & Sciences Theses

This study attempts to illustrate that increases in minority residents may lead to decreases in housing prices. I observe the effects of changes in racial composition on housing prices in Queens, NY from 2011-2015. The following econometric tools are implemented: a fixed effects model, quantile, hedonic, and OLS regressions.


Essays On Inequality And Macroeconomic Stability, Thomas Hauner Sep 2017

Essays On Inequality And Macroeconomic Stability, Thomas Hauner

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters. . .

Chapter 1: Aggregate Wealth and Its Distribution as Determinants of Financial Crises: Panel Evidence This essay investigates the relationship between wealth inequality and financial crises across a panel of nine advanced economies over the past 100 years. While substantiation of a role for income inequality is ambiguous in the literature, evidence is presented suggesting a unique capacity for the accumulation of assets to increase the likelihood of a future financial crisis episode. Testing long-run panel data with a reduced form, two-way fixed effects model, estimates suggest that increasing wealth inequality, in an economy with ...


Three Essays On The European Sovereign Debt Crisis With A Special Focus On Greece, Flora Leventi Sep 2017

Three Essays On The European Sovereign Debt Crisis With A Special Focus On Greece, Flora Leventi

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters where I examine several aspects of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first chapter focuses on systemic risk. Following the financial crisis of 2007-08, both in academic as well as policy circles, much of the research has focused toward the systemic importance of financial institutions. Parallel to that research, but to somewhat lesser extent, there have been improvements in our understanding of how risk is transmitted from the financial system to the real economy. This chapter investigates a related yet distinct manifestation of systemic risk, namely systemic sovereign risk. Using data on sovereign credit ...


Three Essays On International Trade And Finance, Syed A. Uddin Jun 2017

Three Essays On International Trade And Finance, Syed A. Uddin

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation is composed of three essays at the intersection of international trade and finance. In the first chapter, I measure exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for value-added exports, where intermediate input requires sharing among countries in a back-and-forth manner for producing a single final product. I derive an estimating equation for ERPT and value-added trade following a partial equilibrium model, which also leads to decomposition of the trade elasticity into the own price effect and the price index effects. From the empirical estimation, I find that ignoring the value-added trade will cause a systematic upward bias in the estimation of ...