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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Credit, Sectoral Misallocation And Productivity Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis, Carlos Urrutia, Felipe Meza, Sangeeta Pratap Sep 2019

Credit, Sectoral Misallocation And Productivity Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis, Carlos Urrutia, Felipe Meza, Sangeeta Pratap

Carlos Urrutia

We study the relation between credit conditions, misallocation of resources, and productivity growth in a multi-sector model with financial frictions. In our framework, working capital constraints and borrowing limits create wedges between the marginal product of inputs and their relative prices, which we can map into distortions to the capital to labor ratio and to the use of intermediate goods. The distribution of these distortions across sectors and their changes over time affect aggregate TFP. We construct a novel dataset for the Mexican manufacturing activity that merges real and financial data at the 4-digit sectoral level and use our model ...


The Argentine Great Depression, Laira Aggarwal, Francois Ries, Alejandro Salvador May 2019

The Argentine Great Depression, Laira Aggarwal, Francois Ries, Alejandro Salvador

Undergraduate Economic Review

The purpose of this paper is to comprehend the business cycle of the Argentine Crisis (1998-2002). The following paper will outline the crisis, starting off with a comprehensive literature review on the topic, analyzing its causes and consequences, followed by a survey on the policy-responses undertaken by the Argentine government to combat the recession. The crisis will then be analyzed in the context of the IS-LM model of macroeconomics.


Essays On Convex Weighting For Global Vector Autoregressive Models, Garrison Leach May 2019

Essays On Convex Weighting For Global Vector Autoregressive Models, Garrison Leach

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on studying the impact that weighting schemes can have on forecasting performance and dynamic analysis in global vector autoregressive (GVAR) models. The first chapter discusses an existing gap in the literature regarding weighting scheme choice and develops a simple, yet powerful method for defining richer spatial linkages in a way that doesn’t sacrifice economic context. The new technique called convex weighting, extends the set of available options for defining spatial linkages in models that handle the curse of dimensionality via compression and offers a justifiable approach to alleviating uncertainty. The second and third chapters apply the ...


On Macroeconomic Nowcasting And Forecasting With Satellite Imagery And Convolutional Neural Networks, Adam Abate May 2019

On Macroeconomic Nowcasting And Forecasting With Satellite Imagery And Convolutional Neural Networks, Adam Abate

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This research asks whether satellite imagery of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) can aid in the prediction of unemployment over different time horizons. I make these predictions using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). The data consist of 1735 Landsat Analysis Ready Data (ARD) images from 1990 to 2011, each averaged quarterly with a subject that is one of 27 MSAs. I match each quarterly image with a known value of unemployment collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ten training configurations use different combinations of data augmentation and image preprocessing. I find CNN training accuracy around 10 to 20 times the accuracy ...


A Cge-Model Analysis Of U.S. Imposed Automotive Tariffs, Angela Li Apr 2019

A Cge-Model Analysis Of U.S. Imposed Automotive Tariffs, Angela Li

Undergraduate Economic Review

Using a computable generable equilibrium (CGE) model, this research paper evaluates the effects of a U.S. imposed 25% automotive import tariff on NAFTA countries and the European Union, the greatest U.S. automotive trade partners. Three simulations were conducted: the implementation of tariffs with no retaliation, equivalent retaliation on the same products, and retaliation on the top exports of politically significant states, with sensitivity analysis applied in the final scenario. The results demonstrate that the EU is marginally affected while the NAFTA countries experience the greatest increases in prices and reduction in total wages.


A Macroeconomic Approach For Modeling Road Traffic Fatality Rates, Josephine Unger Apr 2019

A Macroeconomic Approach For Modeling Road Traffic Fatality Rates, Josephine Unger

Undergraduate Research Conference

Introduction

After spending a month in Senegal, I noticed the lack of sound infrastructure and safe, reliable transportation systems. Using World Bank data I developed a macroeconomic predictive model for national road traffic mortality rates.


The Role Of Income Inequality As A Predictor Of Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, Daniel Friedberg Apr 2019

The Role Of Income Inequality As A Predictor Of Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, Daniel Friedberg

Student Scholar Showcase

The role of income inequality in relation to gross domestic product is of great importance in modern time. Income inequality is a pressing phenomenon in the fields of economics, politics, and sociology, while Gross Domestic Product is the benchmark statistic in measuring the health of any economy. But how well does income inequality serve as a predictor for the level of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP per capita within a nation? This cross-sectional study determines that the GINI Index has no significant statistical relationship with PPP GDP per capita level. While income inequality is a major economic variable that contributes ...


The Power Of The Visible Hand, Jacqueline S. Kotkiewicz Apr 2019

The Power Of The Visible Hand, Jacqueline S. Kotkiewicz

Student Publications

This paper is an analysis of state capitalism as a vehicle for change in the global economic system. Specifically, it looks at how state capitalism can be seen as an emerging threat to the Bretton Woods system, as well as how it is becoming an increasingly popular model of development. From national champions, to the Belt and Road initiative, to a rising presence in emerging market economies, the state capitalism model is increasing in influence. Due to this rise in power of countries that practice state capitalism, the global structure of power can potentially be challenged, thus also altering the ...


Comparison Of Global Solution Methods To A Zero Lower Bound Model, Emily Martell Apr 2019

Comparison Of Global Solution Methods To A Zero Lower Bound Model, Emily Martell

Undergraduate Honors Theses

During the Great Recession, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered policy rates to zero, introducing a kink in its policy rule and calling into question traditional solution methods. Recent papers have solved fully nonlinear models that treats the zero lower bound (ZLB) as an occasionally binding constraint, but there is little work analyzing the relative performance of these nonlinear solution methods. Two proposed solution methods are policy function iteration with linear interpolation and regime-indexed policy function iteration with Chebyshev polynomial approximation. We examine the impact of making the policy functions conditional on whether the ZLB binds. Our solution algorithm uses ...


Opioid Overdose And Unemployment In The Uk, Hayden Grace Apr 2019

Opioid Overdose And Unemployment In The Uk, Hayden Grace

Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

Opioid overdose in the United Kingdom has risen drastically over the last few years along with the rise in the use of zero-hours contracts. Zero-hours contracts are contracts for employment that guarantee no work but can anchor a person to a job that doesn’t pay above minimum wage when they do not receive work. Since opioid use is often associated with poorer economic conditions in the United States, this paper attempts to measure any correlation between poverty and opioid use in the UK. Using zero-hours contracts as a proxy for underemployment we use several regression models to determine the ...


A Global View Of What Fixes Information Technology Skills Shortage: Panel Data Analyses Of Countries’ Human And Technology Resources, Benyawarath Nithithanatchinnapat, K. D. Joshi Mar 2019

A Global View Of What Fixes Information Technology Skills Shortage: Panel Data Analyses Of Countries’ Human And Technology Resources, Benyawarath Nithithanatchinnapat, K. D. Joshi

Journal of Global Business Insights

This paper aims to provide evidence of what fixes the information technology skills shortage. The focus is on countries' workforce development factors, i.e., human and technology. The research model was tested using secondary data from multiple sources. An ordinary least square with panel corrected standard errors was used to analyze the data. The results indicate that organizations' staff training and gender parity among science, technology, engineering, and mathematics graduates relate negatively to IT talent shortage; this is consistent in both models the authors tested. This study contributes to the IT workforce literature by being the first study that empirically ...


Hedge Funds In The Periphery: An Analysis Of Structures Influencing Fund Behavior In The Icelandic And Cypriot Financial Crises, Jameson K. Mah Mar 2019

Hedge Funds In The Periphery: An Analysis Of Structures Influencing Fund Behavior In The Icelandic And Cypriot Financial Crises, Jameson K. Mah

Undergraduate Economic Review

Hedge funds are often viewed from a positive or negative lens in the public and academic forum. However, both of these perspectives neglect structuralist factors. This paper analyzes the effect of these antecedent economic, political, and legal structures. I argue that these structures are at the root of hedge fund behavior, particularly during financial crises. The financial crises of two peripheral countries, Iceland and Cyprus, are used as case studies to illustrate how hedge fund involvement diverges as a result of structural factors.


Pareto-Improving Transition To Fully Funded Pensions Under Myopia, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Marias H. Gestsson Mar 2019

Pareto-Improving Transition To Fully Funded Pensions Under Myopia, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Marias H. Gestsson

Joydeep Bhattacharya

Under dynamic efficiency, a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension scheme is often described as an “original sin”: It helps the current generation of retirees but hurts future generations because they are forced to save via a return-dominated scheme. Abandoning it is deemed welfare-improving but typically not for all generations. But what if agents are present-biased (hence, undersave for retirement) and the “paternalistically motivated forced savings” component of a PAYG scheme motivated its existence in the first place? This paper shows it is possible to transition from such a PAYG scheme on to a higher return, mandated fully-funded scheme; yet, no generation is ...


How The Federal Reserve Aided The Peoples Bank Of China In Addressing Its 2015 Stock Market Crash, Alec Buchholtz Mar 2019

How The Federal Reserve Aided The Peoples Bank Of China In Addressing Its 2015 Stock Market Crash, Alec Buchholtz

Journal of Financial Crises

An insight into the July 2015 exchange between the Federal Reserve Board and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) discussing efforts to apply lessons from the 1987 "Black Monday" stock market crash to a similar crash that was occurring in China.


The Early Phases Of The Financial Crisis: Reflections On The Lender Of Last Resort, Timothy F. Geithner Mar 2019

The Early Phases Of The Financial Crisis: Reflections On The Lender Of Last Resort, Timothy F. Geithner

Journal of Financial Crises

This essay discusses the powers and limitations of the Federal Reserve’s role as Lender of Last Resort and how it deployed those powers during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. It considers the Fed’s authorities and the frameworks that it relied on in utilizing its powers to calm markets in turmoil and to assist specific financial institutions.


Celtic Tiger Ireland As A Case Study In The Practical Application Of Neoliberal Economic Policy, Natalie Sneed Mar 2019

Celtic Tiger Ireland As A Case Study In The Practical Application Of Neoliberal Economic Policy, Natalie Sneed

Honors Theses, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

The Celtic Tiger economic boom, which occurred in Ireland from approximately 1987 to 2009 has generally been considered one of the most remarkable economic turnarounds in any country in the modern era. My purpose in this project was to identify the primary causes and effects of such rapid and dramatic economic growth and development to determine whether it is sensible for other countries emerging from colonial rule to seek to emulate the Irish economic model. Through a review of the economic literature on the Irish economy in the last three decades, I identify Ireland’s implementation of a neoliberal economic ...


The Impact Of Legalization Of Marijuana On Opioid Overdose Deaths, Radhika N. Bharadwaj Feb 2019

The Impact Of Legalization Of Marijuana On Opioid Overdose Deaths, Radhika N. Bharadwaj

School of Arts & Sciences Theses

This masters’ thesis aims to examine the impact of the legalization of marijuana for recreational use on the death toll from opioid misuse in the state of Colorado. This investigation was done using the Synthetic Controls Method via data collected primarily from the CDC and IPUMS databases. The results indicate that the 2012 legalization policy in Colorado appears to reduce the number of deaths due to opioid overdoses.


Trends And Tariffs: Nebraska In An Aging Recovery, Eric Thompson Feb 2019

Trends And Tariffs: Nebraska In An Aging Recovery, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Nebraska will record solid economic growth during the forecast period but will lag U.S. growth. Nebraska’s large farming sector is struggling and will not contribute much to economic growth during the forecast period. Job growth also will be sluggish in transportation and retail trade. Job growth, however, will be stronger in the services, finance, manufacturing and construction. Projected growth rates for 2019 to 2021 are presented in Table 1.

Employment will grow by 0.7% to 0.9% per year, below the national rate. Nonfarm income will grow between 4.4% and 4.5% each year. This growth ...


Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin Jan 2019

Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin

SMU Data Science Review

Current models for predicting personal consumption expenditures (PCE) employ statistical techniques and rely upon traditional economic features. We compare vector autoregression and random forest regression models using traditional economic features as inputs to predict PCE. Additionally, we develop novel features derived from the earnings call transcripts of publicly traded U.S. companies using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. These new features reduce the mean square error (MSE) of the vector autoregression model by 7% and the random forest model by 23%. We find the random forest models outperformed the vector autoregression models, with a MSE reduction of 68%. We conclude ...


The Political Economy Of Accumulation In South Africa: Resource Extraction, Financialization, And Capital Flight As Barriers To Investment And Employment Growth, Seeraj Mohamed Jan 2019

The Political Economy Of Accumulation In South Africa: Resource Extraction, Financialization, And Capital Flight As Barriers To Investment And Employment Growth, Seeraj Mohamed

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation uses a heterodox economics approach to explain poor levels of accumulation in South Africa. This approach to investment theory and models recognizes that many institutions are shaped to help people create stability in a world of fundamental uncertainty and irreversibility. Therefore, this dissertation examines the system of accumulation that developed in South Africa and its evolution. This approach to investment recognizes that beliefs and biases of people running institutions influence investment outcomes and shape ‘path dependence’.

The corporations that grew to dominate the South African economy were formed during colonialism and apartheid. They grew around a core of ...


Accounting For Agent Heterogeneity In Market And Policy Analysis, Konstantinos Giannakas Jan 2019

Accounting For Agent Heterogeneity In Market And Policy Analysis, Konstantinos Giannakas

Zea E-Books

doi:10.13014/K2416V8V

This book presents a multi-market framework of market and policy analysis that explicitly accounts for the empirically relevant heterogeneity in consumer preferences and producer characteristics. The explicit consideration of consumer and producer heterogeneity represents a significant departure from the representative consumer and producer that have been at the center of most of the literature on market and policy analysis, and enables the distributional impacts of changes in market conditions and policies to be fully identified. The framework is used to analyze the system-wide market and welfare impacts of a number of changes in market conditions (like ...


Regulations, Governance, And Resolution Of Non-Performing Loan: Evidence From An Emerging Economy, Abu S. Amin, Mahmood Osman Iman, Mahfuja Malik Jan 2019

Regulations, Governance, And Resolution Of Non-Performing Loan: Evidence From An Emerging Economy, Abu S. Amin, Mahmood Osman Iman, Mahfuja Malik

WCOB Faculty Publications

How do banks resolve a severe bad loan problem in a capital-constrained, low-income economy when a government bailout is not an option? We address this question by examining new evidence from a sharp decline in bad loan ratios in a panel of conventional commercial banks in Bangladesh. On the aggregate level, the bad loan ratio in this market has dropped from 41% in 1999 to only 10% in 2012. We find that at a micro level, this dramatic improvement is associated with bank management quality and internal governance that were substantially enhanced during a decade of large-scale regulatory reforms. The ...


The Effect Of Us Monetary Policy Shocks On Cryptocurrency Returns, Jisung Kim Jan 2019

The Effect Of Us Monetary Policy Shocks On Cryptocurrency Returns, Jisung Kim

Undergraduate Honors Theses

I explore the effect of US monetary policy shocks on the returns of digital assets since the creation of Bitcoin. A pool of 100 cryptocurrencies are separated into three categories. The monetary policy shocks are measured with two different futures contracts, Fed fund futures and 10-Year bond futures, around a FOMC meeting announcement. With the use of a panel fixed effect model, I find that changes to both futures prices around FOMC meeting have differing effects on the returns of digital assets. In particular, my results suggest that digital assets with deeper integration of blockchain, like digital assets under the ...


Finding Meaning For Food Deserts: Food Retail Establishments In Colorado Counties, Brianna Huynh Jan 2019

Finding Meaning For Food Deserts: Food Retail Establishments In Colorado Counties, Brianna Huynh

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This thesis explores food retail establishments in Colorado in an attempt to discover if food deserts are a meaningful concept in the current literature. By examining Colorado county demographics and count of food retail establishments, we determine the main drivers of food retail establishment change. This thesis finds that race has an effect on food retail establishments consistent with what the literature contends, but income has an opposite effect.


Ten Years Of Economic Analyses For The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive: Overview Of Experiences And Lessons Learned, Rob Van Der Veeren, Ann Kathrin Buchs, Günter Hörmandinger, Soile Oinonen, Conceição Santos, Max Vretborn Dec 2018

Ten Years Of Economic Analyses For The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive: Overview Of Experiences And Lessons Learned, Rob Van Der Veeren, Ann Kathrin Buchs, Günter Hörmandinger, Soile Oinonen, Conceição Santos, Max Vretborn

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive, which came into force in 2008, requires from Member States inter alia to perform various (types of) economic analyses. In order to help Member States to implement this directive, the European working group on Economic and Social Analysis was initiated in 2009. This working group has developed various guidance documents which have been very useful in helping each other to understand the Directive and its requirements, to develop one language, to understand the pros and cons of various approaches, and to share experiences. However, up until now, outside of this working group this information ...


Free Trade And Corporate Social Responsibility: Ethical Dilemmas In Global Economic Development, Sarah Papion Dec 2018

Free Trade And Corporate Social Responsibility: Ethical Dilemmas In Global Economic Development, Sarah Papion

Capstone Projects and Master's Theses

Through the lens of the free-trade-optimist, it is black and white: corporations bring jobs, and jobs equal a happy and healthy economy. A major oversight in this neoliberal Utopian ideology is that corporations are not in the business of building communities, nor do they have an interest in keeping their operations stationary enough to allow economic growth to occur over a span of years. Corporations abandon communities as quickly as they arrive to find their next cheap labor hub. Quite contradictory to the original purpose of free trade, economic growth in Free Trade Zones is not long term or secure ...


Efficiency With Endogenous Population And Fixed Resources, Juan Carlos Cordoba, Xiying Liu Nov 2018

Efficiency With Endogenous Population And Fixed Resources, Juan Carlos Cordoba, Xiying Liu

Economics Working Papers

This article studies socially optimal allocations, in the first-best sense, in environments characterized by fixed resources and endogenous fertility. Individuals in our environment are fully rational and altruistic toward their descendants, the social planner is benevolent, and there is full information. Our model allows for rich heterogeneity of abilities, preferences for children, and costs of raising children. We find that efficient allocations in the endogenous fertility case differ significantly from its exogenous fertility counterpart. In particular, optimal steady-state population is proportional to the amount of fixed resources and to the level of technology while steady state individual consumption is independent ...


Pareto-Improving Transition To Fully Funded Pensions Under Myopia, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Marias H. Gestsson Nov 2018

Pareto-Improving Transition To Fully Funded Pensions Under Myopia, Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Marias H. Gestsson

Economics Working Papers

Under dynamic efficiency, a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension scheme is often described as an “original sin”: It helps the current generation of retirees but hurts future generations because they are forced to save via a return-dominated scheme. Abandoning it is deemed welfare-improving but typically not for all generations. But what if agents are present-biased (hence, undersave for retirement) and the “paternalistically motivated forced savings” component of a PAYG scheme motivated its existence in the first place? This paper shows it is possible to transition from such a PAYG scheme on to a higher return, mandated fully-funded scheme; yet, no generation is ...


Foreign Capital Inflows And Economic Well-Being: A Statistical Analysis Of 46 Sub-Saharan African Countries From 1995-2015, Alexander M. Csanadi Oct 2018

Foreign Capital Inflows And Economic Well-Being: A Statistical Analysis Of 46 Sub-Saharan African Countries From 1995-2015, Alexander M. Csanadi

Undergraduate Economic Review

Variation in the economic well-being among sub-Saharan African countries is among the highest of any region in the world. This paper attempts to address this disparity by exploring the role of foreign capital inflows. This project extends the concept of well-being beyond GDP growth, to include measures of poverty and inequality. A multivariate regression analysis finds that the observed capital inflows have significant effects on all three measurements of well-being. Findings suggest that the level of affluence of the domestic population has significant effects on the ability of those populations to translate diaspora remittances into improvements in well-being.


A Pilot Study Of Uncertainty In Income Tax Forecasts, Andrew Joung, Benjamin Lockwood, Alex Rees-Jones Oct 2018

A Pilot Study Of Uncertainty In Income Tax Forecasts, Andrew Joung, Benjamin Lockwood, Alex Rees-Jones

Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC)

How confidently can taxpayers forecast the tax bill that they will face? We asked survey respondents to provide both point estimates and subjective probability distributions of items from the tax return that they will submit the following April. In a pilot study, consisting of a sample of 188 participants from Amazon Mechanical Turk, we find evidence of substantial uncertainty over both the final tax and its determinants. We discuss the implications of this uncertainty for both tax policy and economic modeling.