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Singapore Management University

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Articles 1 - 30 of 142

Full-Text Articles in International Economics

How China’S Ageing Population Will Impact On The Rest Of Us, Singapore Management University Jul 2019

How China’S Ageing Population Will Impact On The Rest Of Us, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The world’s second largest economy is getting old before it gets rich


Global Value Chains And The Cptpp, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen Jun 2019

Global Value Chains And The Cptpp, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen

SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series

The CPTPP, or the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is an example of a “mega-regional” free trade agreement, whose provisions on the rules of origin and trade facilitation can have potentially large impacts on the CPTPP-wide supply chains. In this paper, we investigate whether the CPTPP members are key upstream and downstream trade partners to each other in the global value chains. We develop formulas of bilateral upstreamness and downstreamness, based on the gross-export decomposition framework of Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and Borin and Mancini (2017). We demonstrate how the decomposition of gross exports can be used ...


Global Value Chains And The Cptpp, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen Jun 2019

Global Value Chains And The Cptpp, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen

Research Collection School Of Economics

The CPTPP, or the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is an example of a “mega-regional” free trade agreement, whose provisions on the rules of origin and trade facilitation can have potentially large impacts on the CPTPP-wide supply chains. In this paper, we investigate whether the CPTPP members are key upstream and downstream trade partners to each other in the global value chains. We develop formulas of bilateral upstreamness and downstreamness, based on the gross-export decomposition framework of Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and Borin and Mancini (2017). We demonstrate how the decomposition of gross exports can be used ...


Stock Recommendations In China: Buyer Beware, Singapore Management University Jan 2019

Stock Recommendations In China: Buyer Beware, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Research analysts have incentives to issue positive recommendations; social ties with fund managers exert considerable influence


A Two-Round In-Class Trading Game On The Principle Of Comparative Advantage And The Theory Of Reciprocal Demand, Bei Hong Jan 2019

A Two-Round In-Class Trading Game On The Principle Of Comparative Advantage And The Theory Of Reciprocal Demand, Bei Hong

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper outlines a classroom trading game that explores equilibrium terms of trade using the principle of comparative advantage and theory of reciprocal demand. Students are divided into eight groups. Each group is assigned a country with hypothetical productivity and each country seeks its trading partner based on comparative advantage. Students simulate the trading of goods between countries with the objective of achieving the best possible terms of trade. The game encourages students to reflect on their learning of the principle of comparative advantage, consider improvements in trade terms through negotiation, and summarize the conditions for mutually beneficial terms of ...


Volatility Spillovers Among Oil And Stock Markets In The Us And Saudi Arabia, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijns, Alireza Tourani-Rad Jan 2019

Volatility Spillovers Among Oil And Stock Markets In The Us And Saudi Arabia, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijns, Alireza Tourani-Rad

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this article, we use high frequency data and an identification via changes in volatility approach to assess the volatility spillovers among oil and the US and Saudi Arabian stock markets. We document the existence of asymmetry in contemporaneous spillover effects. Particularly, during the times when oil’s trading hours overlap with the US and Saudi Arabian stock markets, the volatility spillover from oil to the stock markets is higher than the other way around. We highlight the importance of taking into consideration the information present during continuous trading hours of oil, especially during simultaneous trading hours with the stock ...


Made In Singapore, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen Jan 2019

Made In Singapore, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we characterize the position of Singapore in global value chains and identify Singapore's key upstream and downstream trade partners. We trace how the position of Singapore in global value chains has changed in the past two decades: whether it has moved upstream or downstream, how involved it is in global value chains, how its trend compares with other major Asian exporting countries (China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan), and which key sectors of Singapore play a major role in these global trade networks.


Competition, Markups, And Gains From Trade: A Quantitative Analysis Of China Between 1995 And 2004, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Guiying Laura Wu Jan 2019

Competition, Markups, And Gains From Trade: A Quantitative Analysis Of China Between 1995 And 2004, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Guiying Laura Wu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a quantitative analysis of gains from trade in a model with head-to-head competition using Chinese firm-level data from Economic Censuses in 1995 and 2004. We find a significant reduction in trade cost during this period, and total gains from such improved openness during this period is 7:1%. The gains are decomposed into a Ricardian component and two pro-competitive ones. The procompetitive effects account for 20% of the total gains. Moreover, the total gains from trade are 13 31% larger than what would result from the formula provided by ACR (Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare 2012), which nests ...


U.S. Economic Outlook For The Rest Of 2018, Singapore Management University Oct 2018

U.S. Economic Outlook For The Rest Of 2018, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Fed rates to inch up as GDP grows but China-U.S. trade war is a major worry


Geography, Trade And Power-Law Phenomena, Pao-Li Chang, Wen-Tai Hsu Sep 2018

Geography, Trade And Power-Law Phenomena, Pao-Li Chang, Wen-Tai Hsu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article provides a review on the theories of various power-law phenomena related to geography and trade. In particular, we focus our discussion on the gravity equation of trade flows, the power law in firm size, and the link between the two - highlighting the roles of geography and trade in the theoretical modeling. We also discuss how these two power-law phenomena may be related to other power-law phenomena, such as those in income, firm productivity and city size.


Income Inequality, Productivity, And International Trade, Wen-Tai Hsu, Lin Lu, Pierre Picard Jul 2018

Income Inequality, Productivity, And International Trade, Wen-Tai Hsu, Lin Lu, Pierre Picard

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper discusses the effect of income inequality on selection and aggregate productivity in a general equilibrium model with non-homothetic preferences. It shows the existence of a negative relationship between the number and quantity of products consumed by an income group and the earnings of other income groups. It also highlights the negative effect of a mean-preserving spread of income on aggregate productivity through the softening of firms’ selection. This effect is however mitigated in the presence of international trade. In a quantitative analysis, it is shown that an excessively large mean-preserving spread of income may harm the rich as ...


Belt Road Initiative: A Chinese Future, Singapore Management University May 2018

Belt Road Initiative: A Chinese Future, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Despite concerns over debt and geopolitics, Asian countries should embrace a Sino-centric economic future

In a speech at the 52nd Munich Security Conference in 2016, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying opened by saying:

“China has been asked frequently: are you challenging the US as leader of the world order? Or, are you making a parallel order? The answer is: of course not, we are part of the international order.”


The Indian Diaspora, Culture, And Foreign Policy, Singapore Management University Mar 2018

The Indian Diaspora, Culture, And Foreign Policy, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Indians living overseas can be a bridge to a rapidly changing world

In the United Nations “International Migration Report 2015”, India had the largest diaspora population in the world with 16 million individuals born in the country but living outside of it. It’s a 100 percent increase from the 8 million in 2000, with an increasing number making their way to the United States where Indians make up the second largest immigrant group after Mexicans.


The Global Economic Outlook In 2018, Singapore Management University Feb 2018

The Global Economic Outlook In 2018, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Oil prices will not reach US$120, more U.S. Fed rate hikes expected, and Brexit’s fallout to remain largely within Europe


Informal Institutions And Comparative Advantage Of South-Based Mnes: Theory And Evidence, Pao-Li Chang Jan 2018

Informal Institutions And Comparative Advantage Of South-Based Mnes: Theory And Evidence, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School of Economics

This paper builds a theory to characterize the comparative advantage of South-based MNEs rooted in institutional qualities. MNEs headquartered in countries of poorer state institutions are hypothesized to invest more in `informal institutions', and as an optimal response, undertake FDI in countries of weaker institutions, all else being equal. At the aggregate, MNEs generate more net profits in countries of weaker institutions, the poorer the institutional environment at home. Extensive tests of the theory are conducted using bilateral FDI volumes for 219 economies in year 2001--2010. The results indicate a statistically significant and robust institutional complementarity effect in bilateral FDI ...


Spotlight On Venture In Israel And China, Singapore Management University Jan 2018

Spotlight On Venture In Israel And China, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Israel has always been dubbed the “Startup Nation”. With 140 scientists, technicians, and engineers per 10,000 employees, it boasts the highest number of scientists and technology professionals per capita in the world. More than 250 multinational corporations, including Google, Apple and Microsoft, have R&D or innovation centers in the country.


China And India In 2018, Singapore Management University Jan 2018

China And India In 2018, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts different trajectories for the world’s two most populous countries.


Cultural Preferences In International Trade: Evidence From The Globalization Of Korean Pop Culture, Pao-Li Chang, Iona Hyojung Lee Dec 2017

Cultural Preferences In International Trade: Evidence From The Globalization Of Korean Pop Culture, Pao-Li Chang, Iona Hyojung Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Korean pop culture (TVdramas and K-pop music) has grown immensely popular across the globe over thepast two decades. This paper analyzes its impacts on international trade. We compilea cross-country panel dataset of South Korea's TV show exports to over 150countries for the period of 1998{2014. These variations in exposure to Koreanpop cultures are used to identify changes in consumer preferences for Koreanmerchandise across time, countries, and products (at the HS 4-digit level).First, we find that more Korean TV show exports significantly increase Koreanexports of goods for women, while the effects are much smaller on men'smerchandise ...


The Gatt/Wto Welfare Effects: 1950–2015, Pao-Li Chang, Wei Jin Dec 2017

The Gatt/Wto Welfare Effects: 1950–2015, Pao-Li Chang, Wei Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare impact of GATT/WTO in its entire history of 1950-2015 for 180 countries. The analysis embeds nonparametric matching methods in structural quantitative simulations. The results indicate substantial (but highly heterogeneous) welfare gains created by GATT/WTO at the global level and across more than six decades of its history. An extensive set of robustness checks with respect to model specifications, parameter values, and matching estimations are provided. We also characterize the effects of GATT/WTO on global income disparity, its interaction with preferential trade agreements, and the effects of China's ...


The Sustainability Edge, Jagdish Sheth, Suhas Apte Nov 2017

The Sustainability Edge, Jagdish Sheth, Suhas Apte

Asian Management Insights

How to drive top-line growth with triple-bottom-line thinking.


A New Toolkit For Thailand 4.0, Abhisit Vejjajiva, Philip Charles Zerrillo Nov 2017

A New Toolkit For Thailand 4.0, Abhisit Vejjajiva, Philip Charles Zerrillo

Asian Management Insights

The Prime Minister of Thailand from 2008 to 2011 and the current leader of the Democrat Party, Abhisit Vejjajiva, addresses the challenges facing the Thai economy today, in this interview with Philip Zerrillo.


Does “America First'' Help America? The Impact Of Country Image On Exports And Welfare, Pao-Li Chang, Tomoki Fujii, Wei Jin Nov 2017

Does “America First'' Help America? The Impact Of Country Image On Exports And Welfare, Pao-Li Chang, Tomoki Fujii, Wei Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper estimates the effects of bilateral and time-varying preference bias on trade flows and welfare. We use a unique dataset from the BBC World Opinion Poll that surveys (annually during 2005-2017 with some gaps) the populations from a wide array of countries on their views of whether an evaluated country is having a mainly positive or negative influence in the world. We identify the effects on bilateral preference parameters due to shifts in these country image perceptions, and quantify their general equilibrium effects on bilateral exports and welfare (each time for an evaluated exporting country, assuming that the exporting ...


Cooperation Is Key To Building China’S Bay Area, Singapore Management University Aug 2017

Cooperation Is Key To Building China’S Bay Area, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is expected to surpass the Tokyo Bay Area or San Francisco Bay Area in ten years, if the cities in the region can leverage their strengths, streamline their coordination mechanism and speed up the economy integration,” said Dr. Tse Kwok-leung, who currently serves as head of Economics and Policy Research at the Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited. Dr. Tse was speaking at a seminar themed “How to Build a World-class Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area” organized by the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce in July 2017.


Growing Through The Merger And Acquisition, Jianhuan Xu Jul 2017

Growing Through The Merger And Acquisition, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper studies with an endogenous growth model how the merger and acquisition (M&A) affects the aggregate growth rate. We model the M&A as a capital reallocation process, which can increase both productivity and growth rates of firms. The model is tractable and greatly consistent with patterns observed in the M&A at the micro level. Matching our model to the data, we find that prohibiting the M&A would lead to the reduction of the aggregate growth rate of US economy by 0.1% and the reduction of the aggregate TFP by 5%.


China’S Pearl River Delta Development: A Game Changer For Hong Kong, Singapore Management University Jun 2017

China’S Pearl River Delta Development: A Game Changer For Hong Kong, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

“Hong Kong government has to think out of the box and take initiative to lead Hong Kong to break the bottle neck in economy development,” said Dr. Fang Zhou, Research Director of One Country Two Systems Research Institute (OCTSRI), a non-government public policy think tank in Hong Kong, at a seminar organized by Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong in November 2016.


Asean In 2025, Singapore Management University Jun 2017

Asean In 2025, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Will ASEAN ever progress beyond being a forum to discuss, and sometimes settle, differences?


Trump And Asia, Singapore Management University May 2017

Trump And Asia, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The American president is off to an uncertain start in his first 100 days in office but his administration could yet develop a coherent foreign policy


The Revival Of The Philippine Economy, Cesar V. Purisima, Philip Charles Zerrillo May 2017

The Revival Of The Philippine Economy, Cesar V. Purisima, Philip Charles Zerrillo

Asian Management Insights

The former Secretary ofFinance for the Philippinesand Chair of the EconomicDevelopment Clusterfrom 2010 to 2016,Cesar V. Purisima,talks about the turningaround of the Philippineeconomy and restoringinvestor confidence, in thisinterview with Philip Zerrillo.


A Tale Of Two Cities: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2016, Singapore Management University Mar 2017

A Tale Of Two Cities: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2016, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

In recent years, Hong Kong and Shenzhen have experienced an explosive growth in the start-up support ecosystem.


Evaluating The Conditions For China’S 4th Industrial Revolution Plan: A Neo-Schumpeterian Analysis, Hing Lee Henry Chan Nov 2016

Evaluating The Conditions For China’S 4th Industrial Revolution Plan: A Neo-Schumpeterian Analysis, Hing Lee Henry Chan

Dissertations and Theses Collection

After 33 years (1979-2011) of close to double digit average annual economic growth, the Chinese economy decelerated to a mid-high single digit growth of approximately 7% per year since 2012. The country is currently facing the typical economic transition challenge of moving from being a high-middle income to high income economy. In response to this economic transition, the government launched an industrial innovation program that corresponds to the 4th Industrial Revolution in 2015-Made in China 2025, hoping to stabilize and rejuvenate China’s growth momentum through innovation. This thesis examines the pre-conditions for the successful implementation of this plan using ...