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Full-Text Articles in Economic History

Pegxit Pressure: Evidence From The Classical Gold Standard, Kris James Mitchener, Gonçalo Pina Nov 2016

Pegxit Pressure: Evidence From The Classical Gold Standard, Kris James Mitchener, Gonçalo Pina

Economics

We develop a simple model that highlights the costs and benefits of fixed exchange rates as they relate to trade, and show that negative export-price shocks reduce fiscal revenue and increase the likelihood of an expected currency devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on commodity-price movements from the classical gold standard era, we then show that the model’s main prediction holds even for the canonical example of hard pegs. We identify a negative causal relationship between export-price shocks and currency-risk premia in emerging market economies, indicating that negative export-price shocks increased the probability that countries abandoned their pegs.


Development Of Utility Theory And Utility Paradoxes, Timothy E. Dahlstrom Jun 2016

Development Of Utility Theory And Utility Paradoxes, Timothy E. Dahlstrom

Lawrence University Honors Projects

Since the pioneering work of von Neumann and Morgenstern in 1944 there have been many developments in Expected Utility theory. In order to explain decision making behavior economists have created increasingly broad and complex models of utility theory. This paper seeks to describe various utility models, how they model choices among ambiguous and lottery type situations, and how they respond to the Ellsberg and Allais paradoxes. This paper also attempts to communicate the historical development of utility models and provide a fresh perspective on the development of utility models.


The Investment Casualties Of War: Global Impacts Of Armed Conflict On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, Reinhard J. Cate Mr. May 2016

The Investment Casualties Of War: Global Impacts Of Armed Conflict On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, Reinhard J. Cate Mr.

Master's Theses

Abstract: Involvement in the outbreak of an armed conflict can present a variety of potential risks to an involved nation’s economy. In this paper I examine if one one of those risks, specifically that a new war could scare away foreign investment actually occurs and whether the intensity of the conflict increases or lessens the potential impact. Using ordinary least squares on panel data from 1966 to 2015, I examine the short and long term impacts of armed conflict on global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows using two measures of conflict intensity: Large conflicts or ‘wars’, with 1000 or ...


From The Classical School To Today: The Evolution Of Stagnation Theories, Francis J. Lukacovic Ii May 2016

From The Classical School To Today: The Evolution Of Stagnation Theories, Francis J. Lukacovic Ii

Applied Economics Theses

The purpose of this thesis is to study the theory of secular stagnation, which was made famous by the American Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen in his book Full Recovery or Stagnation. The theory of secular stagnation has reappeared in economic circles today due to recent economic conditions since the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The thesis will analyze the history of the stagnation theory dating back to Classical economists in the 19th century. The concept of a stagnating economy has been talked about for centuries with many economists adding important thoughts. Furthermore, the thesis will address the current questions and ...


Examining Monetary Policy In The Absence Of A Central Bank And Sovereign Currency In Palestine, Salam Marwan Awartani Jan 2016

Examining Monetary Policy In The Absence Of A Central Bank And Sovereign Currency In Palestine, Salam Marwan Awartani

Senior Projects Spring 2016

There is extensive literature on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that studies the historic, political, and social aspects. However, few scholars have examined the economic model that was born out of the conflict and the various implications behind it. According to Charles Goodhart: “A Central Bank has two main functions. Its first (macro-economic) function is the operation of discretionary monetary policy” and a “second (micro-economic) function, of providing support (e.g., via Lender of Last Resort assistance), and regulatory and supervisory services to maintain the health of the banking system”[1]. However, with the Israeli Occupation’s imposed restrictions on the PMA ...