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Claremont Colleges

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Articles 1 - 15 of 15

Full-Text Articles in Economic History

Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams Jan 2017

Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.


What Goes Up Must Come Down: The Relationship Between The Housing Market Boom And The Subsequent Economic Downturn: Evidence From The Msa Level, Bruce Dale Service Jan 2017

What Goes Up Must Come Down: The Relationship Between The Housing Market Boom And The Subsequent Economic Downturn: Evidence From The Msa Level, Bruce Dale Service

CMC Senior Theses

Using MSA level data, the paper shows, that geographic areas which experienced the largest housing bubble generally suffered a more serious subsequent economic downturn. More specifically, the paper establishes that MSAs with larger declines in housing permits had larger increases in unemployment. There also appears to be strong evidence of a correlation between the magnitude of a housing boom and the timing of the decline in housing permits. MSAs which experienced larger real housing inflation offered early indications of the subsequent Great Recession.


The End Of The Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes In The U.S. Economy Have Impacted Economic Growth, Maxwell J. Urman Jan 2017

The End Of The Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes In The U.S. Economy Have Impacted Economic Growth, Maxwell J. Urman

CMC Senior Theses

Using data from government sources (FRED, BEA, BLS), the thesis explores the underlying reasons for declining U.S. economic growth. A long standing trend of annual 3% growth no longer seems to hold true for the economy. The paper summarizes current theory as to why the growth has slowed and finds new explanations by analyzing the various major industries which make up GDP. The results show that sectoral shifts in employment from high paying industries to low paying industries help to explain a significant portion of the decline in national growth rates. The decline in growth is primarily driven by ...


The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap Jan 2017

The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap

CMC Senior Theses

The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications (i ...


Institutional Development: Interpreting The Russian Case, Joshua W. Rooney Jan 2017

Institutional Development: Interpreting The Russian Case, Joshua W. Rooney

CMC Senior Theses

A fundamental question to both historians and development economists is why countries today are able to reach and maintain such starkly different economic outcomes. Popular explanations include geographic and climatological features, short-term policy decisions, and economic institutions. This paper looks at the importance of violence and social pressure in the transformation and conservation of political and economic institutions in Russia. It finds that several major historical legacies including serfdom, Mongol dominance, Orthodoxy, and authoritarianism significantly influence both the past a present institutional setting. Furthermore, such legacies have proven to be major obstructions to the emergence of economic liberalism.


The Political Economy Of Environmental Justice: A Comparative Study Of New Delhi And Los Angeles, Ratik Asokan Jan 2015

The Political Economy Of Environmental Justice: A Comparative Study Of New Delhi And Los Angeles, Ratik Asokan

CMC Senior Theses

Though mainstream environmentalism, both in the U.S. and India, was initially rooted in social justice, it has, over time, moved away from this focus. The Environmental Justice Movement consequently arose to reunite social and environmental activism. In this thesis, I trace the historical relationship between the mainstream environmentalism, the Environmental Justice Movement, and marginalized communities. After providing this general overview, I examine two case studies – in Los Angeles and New Delhi respectively – where marginalized communities have been involved in Environmental Justice activities. My analysis reveals that marginalized communities often act in an ‘environmentalist’ or ‘environmentally friendly’ manner, without defining ...


What Is The 'Economic Value' Of Learning English In Spain?, Molly M. Robbins Jan 2015

What Is The 'Economic Value' Of Learning English In Spain?, Molly M. Robbins

Scripps Senior Theses

This paper uses historical and economic references to evaluate the economic value of learning English in Spain. Seeing that English is the lingua franca in politics, business, and technology, it is a necessary skill for Spanish citizens to possess in order to efficiently interact in foreign relations of all kinds. Due to Franco’s harsh language policies, and Spain’s ineffective education system, Spain has lacked the same linguistic exposure to foreign languages—especially English—than the rest of Europe. By referencing the previous literature written about the relationship between language and earnings, this paper seeks to find the economic ...


A Story Of Four Revolutions: Mechanisms Of Change In India, Aseema Sinha Jul 2012

A Story Of Four Revolutions: Mechanisms Of Change In India, Aseema Sinha

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

Sumit Ganguly and Rahul Mukherji’s India Since 1980 presents a bold and ambitious argument about change across and within India. Its unique contribution lies in its description of four distinct revolutions: social-political, economic, foreign policy, and religious. While many recent books have noted changes in India’s economy and foreign policy, India Since 1980 will be known for its juxtaposition of four different themes in one short, pithy volume. Even if one may disagree with the authors’ choice of the four dimensions of change, the book’s dominant message is that India is changing across a whole range of ...


Willy Brandt’S Ostpolitik: The Changing Role In United States-West German Relations, An Analysis Of United States Government Internal Documents, Sara A. Popovich Apr 2012

Willy Brandt’S Ostpolitik: The Changing Role In United States-West German Relations, An Analysis Of United States Government Internal Documents, Sara A. Popovich

Scripps Senior Theses

This thesis analyzes a crucial period in the relations between the Federal Republic of Germany and the United States of America, through the use of US government internal documents. Willy Brandt brought forth a new vision of Ostpolitik that was starkly different from policies that the US had dealt with before, subsequently leaving the Nixon Administration largely unsure of how to react. The change in FRG economic positioning vis-à-vis the United States, and catalyst political events in the 1960’s, created the impetus for Brandt’s vision of OStpolitik, which culminated in the interim West German control of the Western ...


"Sell Or Slaughter": The Economic And Social Policies Of German Reunification, Saraid L. Donnelly Jan 2012

"Sell Or Slaughter": The Economic And Social Policies Of German Reunification, Saraid L. Donnelly

CMC Senior Theses

This paper looks at the struggles faced by German policymakers in the years following reunification. East Germany struggled with an immediate transformation from a planned economy to a social market economy, while West Germany sent billions of Deutsche Marks to its eastern states. Because of the unequal nature of these two countries, policymakers had to decide on what they would place more emphasis: social benefits for the East or economic protection for the West. The West German state-level, Federal Government and the East German governments struggled in finding multilaterally beneficial policies. This paper looks at the four key issues of ...


Water Policy: The World's Most Important Resource Politicized, Ethan Gilbert Jan 2012

Water Policy: The World's Most Important Resource Politicized, Ethan Gilbert

CMC Senior Theses

Water is the most important resource on the planet for sustaining life, and many consider access to water as a fundamental human right. However, in light of its necessity, the distribution and allocation of water has become a highly politicized issue. Economic and political conditions have been shown to be influential in shaping a country’s water policy, more so then recognition of water as a basic human right. The reason for this is that many agree that there needs to be a value assigned to water to encourage its conservation and efficient use, and different methods of addressing that ...


The Potential Application Of Weather Derivatives To Hedge Harvest Value Risk In The Champagne Region Of France, Andrew W. Yandell Jan 2012

The Potential Application Of Weather Derivatives To Hedge Harvest Value Risk In The Champagne Region Of France, Andrew W. Yandell

CMC Senior Theses

In Champagne, France grape growers and and winemakers work together to make the world's most iconic sparkling wine. Part of what makes Champagne so celebrated is its reputation for constant quality: only the best grapes are used to make wine. In poor vintage years, grape growers sell less grapes to winemakers; poor vintages are the result of bad weather. This presents the opportunity for grape growers to hedge the risk of poor weather and resulting lower harvest values with weather derivatives. This study explores the potential for grape growers to trade them to effectively hedge against low harvest values ...


America's First Great Moderation, Ryan Shaffer Jan 2011

America's First Great Moderation, Ryan Shaffer

CMC Senior Theses

This paper identifies America's first Great Moderation, a period from 1841-1856 of unbroken economic expansion and low volatility comparable to the Great Moderation of the 1980s-2000s. This moderation occurred despite a lack of central banks, low governmental spending, and barriers to interstate commerce during the antebellum period. I demonstrate this moderation in industrial production and stock market indexes and compare the first Great Moderation with the second in these economic factors. These results also call into question the conventional wisdom of the National Bureau of Economic Research business cycle chronology that the antebellum period was volatile and fraught with ...


The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal Jan 2011

The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some ...


Has The Franco-German Power Balance In The European Union Tipped In Favor Of Germany?, Stephanie C. Haffner Jan 2011

Has The Franco-German Power Balance In The European Union Tipped In Favor Of Germany?, Stephanie C. Haffner

CMC Senior Theses

The power balance between France and Germany in the European Union has been one of great discussion and debate. Countless journalists and scholars have argued that Germany’s power has risen gradually against the seemingly perpetually stronger France over the past sixty years, and is now finally set to surpass France; but how true are these claims? How can power within the EU truly be measured? Through an analysis of Franco-German collaboration through unionization, a critique of the contemporary discourse on the relationship, and an examination of changing contributions to the EU budget, my paper argues that the Franco-German power ...