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Full-Text Articles in Economic History

The Euro: Ready Or Not? A Retrospective On European Unification: Some Lessons For 1999, Joseph Santos Jan 1998

The Euro: Ready Or Not? A Retrospective On European Unification: Some Lessons For 1999, Joseph Santos

Economics Pamphlet Series

On January 1, 1999, fifteen independent nation-states of Europe are set to relinquish their national currencies in favor of a single European monetary unit, called the euro. While the origins of the European Union (EU) (formerly referred to as the European Community) date back to the Marshall Plan, the inception of the euro occurred in February of 1992 with the passage of the Treaty on European Union, or Maastricht Treaty. Though the prospect of a European Monetary Union (EMU) has attracted many observers from the economics, finance, and business communities, the history of the EU, and its current plan to ...


The Fischer Black Hypothesis: Some Time-Series Evidence, Tony Caporale, Barbara Mckiernan Jan 1998

The Fischer Black Hypothesis: Some Time-Series Evidence, Tony Caporale, Barbara Mckiernan

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We estimate an ARCH-M model to analyze the relationship between the conditional standard deviation of real gross national product (GNP) and its growth rate for the period 1871-1993. We find that variability significantly increases output growth rates. In addition, impulse response functions show that the effect of variability on growth rates is dynamic. These results provide evidence in favor of Black's (1987) business cycle hypothesis.