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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

Assessing Post-Ada Employment: Some Econometric Evidence And Policy Considerations, Christopher L. Griffin Jr., John J. Donohue Iii, Michael Ashley Stein, Sascha Becker Sep 2019

Assessing Post-Ada Employment: Some Econometric Evidence And Policy Considerations, Christopher L. Griffin Jr., John J. Donohue Iii, Michael Ashley Stein, Sascha Becker

Christopher L. Griffin Jr.

This article explores the relationship between the Americans with Disabilities Act (“ADA”) and the relative labor market outcomes for people with disabilities. Using individual-level longitudinal data from 1981 to 1996 derived from the previously unexploited Panel Study of Income Dynamics (“PSID”), we examine the possible effect of the ADA on (1) annual weeks worked; (2) annual earnings; and (3) hourly wages for a sample of 7120 unique male household heads between the ages of 21 and 65 as well as a subset of 1437 individuals appearing every year from 1981 to 1996. Our analysis of the larger sample suggests the ...


Give Me A Challenge Or Give Me A Raise, Aleksandr Alekseev Sep 2019

Give Me A Challenge Or Give Me A Raise, Aleksandr Alekseev

ESI Working Papers

I study the effect of task difficulty on workers' effort and compare it to the effect of monetary rewards in an incentivized lab experiment. I find that task difficulty has an inverse-U effect on effort, and that this effect is quantitatively large when compared to the effect of conditional monetary rewards. Difficulty acts as a mediator of monetary rewards: conditional rewards are most effective at the intermediate or high levels of difficulty. I show that the inverse-U pattern of effort response to difficulty is not consistent with the Expected Utility model but is consistent with the Rank-Dependent Utility model that ...


The Effect Of Inflation Targeting Policies On Dollarization-A Cross-Country Analysis, Dweepobotee Brahma Sep 2019

The Effect Of Inflation Targeting Policies On Dollarization-A Cross-Country Analysis, Dweepobotee Brahma

The Hilltop Review

This paper attempts to review the experiences of various dollarized economies from the adoption of an explicit inflation-targeting framework for domestic monetary policy. Dollarization is the phenomenon where agents in a country choose to use a foreign currency instead of their domestic currency. This often occurs in response to episodes of high inflation rate in the domestic economy. Central Banks of these countries often respond by adopting an inflation-targeting regime. This paper attempts to evaluate the effectiveness of such a policy by conducting a cross-country comparison. A panel dataset from 14 dollarized economies from 2001-2015, is used to compare between ...


Improving Future Policy Responses To Foreseeable Bank Risk-Taking, Joao F. Gomes, Marco Grotteria, Jessica A. Wachter Sep 2019

Improving Future Policy Responses To Foreseeable Bank Risk-Taking, Joao F. Gomes, Marco Grotteria, Jessica A. Wachter

Wharton Public Policy Initiative

This brief offers new perspectives on the behavior of banks during the financial crisis of 2007-08 and the limited success of unconventional monetary policies in stimulating bank credit to the private sector during the subsequent economic recovery. The common narrative about the financial crisis is that it was caused by a large credit expansion with overly risky loan-granting behavior by banks. We argue, however, that banks actually made optimal financial decisions in the lead-up to the crisis, based on their calculation of their franchise value. The brief explains the mechanics of franchise value—how it led banks to shift their ...


An Experimental Investigation Of Income, Insurance, And Investments In Health Over The Life Course, J. Dustin Tracy, Hillard Kaplan, Kevin A. James, Stephen Rassenti Aug 2019

An Experimental Investigation Of Income, Insurance, And Investments In Health Over The Life Course, J. Dustin Tracy, Hillard Kaplan, Kevin A. James, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

We examine the impacts of age, income and insurance plan on behavior in a virtual environment with cash-motivated subjects, who live multi-period lives in which they earn income and spend on enjoyment, insurance, and investments in health. Health shocks increase simulating aging. The 2x2 experimental has high and low income subjects, and offers employer-based or actuarial insurance. We find: 1) subject behavior approximated optimal responses; 2) in all treatments, subjects under-invested in health early in life and over-invested in health late in life; 3) subjects in the employer-based plan purchased insurance at higher rates; 4) the employer-based plan reduced differences ...


Lying And Shirking Under Oath, Nicolas Jacquemet, Alexander James, Stéphane Luchini, James J. Murphy, Jason F. Shogren Aug 2019

Lying And Shirking Under Oath, Nicolas Jacquemet, Alexander James, Stéphane Luchini, James J. Murphy, Jason F. Shogren

ESI Working Papers

This study explores whether an oath to honesty can reduce both shirking and lying among crowd-sourced internet workers. Using a classic coin-flip experiment, we first show that a substantial majority of Mechanical Turk workers both shirk and lie when reporting the number of heads flipped. We then demonstrate lying can be reduced by first asking each worker to swear voluntarily on his or her honor to tell the truth in subsequent economic decisions. The oath, however, did not reduce shirking as measured by time- at-coin-flip-task, although it did increase the time they spent answering a demographic survey. Conditional on response ...


Property Rights And The Efficient Extraction Of Common Pool Resources: Evidence From West Coast Groundfish, Keith S. Evans, Carl Lian, Quinn Weninger Aug 2019

Property Rights And The Efficient Extraction Of Common Pool Resources: Evidence From West Coast Groundfish, Keith S. Evans, Carl Lian, Quinn Weninger

Economics Working Papers

Evaluating efficiency gains from adopting property rights-based fisheries management is data intensive, complicated by delays in adjusting to economic incentives implicit in output control regulations, and potentially confounded by the effects of changing stock abundance and other fundamentals. This paper evaluates harvesting efficiency for the universe of vessel participants in the West Coast groundfish trawl fishery two years prior to and six years following introduction of individual fishing quota (IFQ) regulations. Our methods control for delayed fleet restructuring and confounding effects of changing groundfish stock abundance. We find that under IFQs, redundant vessel capital exited the groundfish fishery at a ...


Adding Tournament To Tournament: Combining Between-Team And Within-Team Incentives, Michael Majerczyk, Roman Sheremeta, Yu Tian Aug 2019

Adding Tournament To Tournament: Combining Between-Team And Within-Team Incentives, Michael Majerczyk, Roman Sheremeta, Yu Tian

ESI Working Papers

We examine theoretically and experimentally how combining between-team and within-team incentives affects behavior in team tournaments. Theory predicts that free-riding will occur when there are only between-team incentives, and offering within-team incentives may solve this problem. However, if individuals collude, then within-team incentives may not be as effective at reducing free-riding. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, the results of our experiment indicate that although between-team incentives are effective at increasing individual effort, there is substantial free-riding and declining effort over time. Importantly, a combination of between-team and within-team incentives is effective not only at generating effort but also at sustaining ...


Co-Enforcement Of Common Pool Resources: Experimental Evidence From Turfs In Chile, Carlos A. Chávez, James J. Murphy, John K. Stranlund Aug 2019

Co-Enforcement Of Common Pool Resources: Experimental Evidence From Turfs In Chile, Carlos A. Chávez, James J. Murphy, John K. Stranlund

ESI Working Papers

This work presents the results of framed field experiments designed to study the co-enforcement of access to common pool resources. The experiments were conducted in the field with participants in the territorial use rights in fisheries (TURFs) management scheme that regulates access to nearshore fisheries along the coast of Chile. In the experiments, TURF members not only decided on harvest but also invested in monitoring to deter poaching by outsiders. Treatments varied whether the monitoring investment was an individual decision or determined by a group vote. Per-unit sanctions for poaching were exogenous as if provided by a government authority, and ...


A Transactive Energy Approach To Distribution System Design: Household Formulation, Swathi Battula, Leigh Tesfatsion, Zhaoyu Wang Jul 2019

A Transactive Energy Approach To Distribution System Design: Household Formulation, Swathi Battula, Leigh Tesfatsion, Zhaoyu Wang

Leigh Tesfatsion

A household model is formulated to facilitate careful performance testing of bid-based transactive energy system (TES) designs in advance of deployment. Household welfare is expressed by comfort minus cost. Household thermal dynamics are represented by an Equivalent Thermal Parameter (ETP) model based on appliance and house attributes. An optimal bid function is characterized for the household, conditional on its operating state. A method is developed for explicit derivation of this optimal bid function, given discretized forms for the household’s welfare and thermal dynamic functions. A method is also developed for constructing representative household types as correlated collections of welfare ...


The Effect Of Social Information In The Dictator Game With A Taking Option, Tanya O'Garra, Valerio Capraro, Praveen Kujal Jul 2019

The Effect Of Social Information In The Dictator Game With A Taking Option, Tanya O'Garra, Valerio Capraro, Praveen Kujal

ESI Working Papers

We experimentally study how redistribution choices are affected by positive and negative information regarding the behaviour of a previous participant in a dictator game with a taking option. We use the strategy method to identify behavioural ‘types’, and thus distinguish ‘conformists’ from ‘counter-conformists’, and unconditional choosers. Unconditional choosers make up the greatest proportion of types (about 80%) while only about 20% of subjects condition their responses to social information. We find that both conformity and counter-conformity are driven by a desire to be seen as moral (the ‘symbolization’ dimension of moral identity). The main difference is that, conformity is also ...


Classical Economics: Lost And Found, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon Smith Jul 2019

Classical Economics: Lost And Found, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon Smith

ESI Working Papers

"We argue that neoclassical value theory suffers from a more basic and serious logical indeterminacy, which is inherent in the axiom of price-taking behavior, and which renders price dynamics indeterminate before inquiring as to its stability. If everyone in the economy takes price as given, whence come these prices? Who is giving these prices? Jevons avoided the indeterminacy by assuming that people must have complete information on supply and demand, and the consequent equilibrium prices—‘perfect competition.’ Walras in effect imported an external agent who found the prices by trial-and-error-correction (the Walrasian Auctioneer). Paradoxically, both approaches had the potential better ...


Cournot Marked The Turn From Classical To Neoclassical Thinking, Vernon L. Smith, Sabiou M. Inoua Jul 2019

Cournot Marked The Turn From Classical To Neoclassical Thinking, Vernon L. Smith, Sabiou M. Inoua

ESI Working Papers

For classical economists, markets served the highest value buyers without anyone in the market needing to know that it was possible to write aggregate buyer reservation prices in the form, D = F (p). Cournot, thereby launched neoclassical economics as modelling and thinking of economic action in terms of their outcome effects, rather than their roots in human experience.


Improved Marginal Likelihood Estimation Via Power Posteriors And Importance Sampling, Yong Li, Nianling Wang, Jun Yu Jul 2019

Improved Marginal Likelihood Estimation Via Power Posteriors And Importance Sampling, Yong Li, Nianling Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The power-posterior method of Friel and Pettitt (2008) has been used to estimate the marginal likelihoods of competing Bayesian models. In this paper it is shown that the Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorem holds for the power posteriors under regularity conditions. Due to the BvM theorem, the power posteriors, when adjusted by the square root of the corresponding grid points, converge to the same normal distribution as the original posterior distribution, facilitating the implementation of importance sampling for the purpose of estimating the marginal likelihood. Unlike the power-posterior method that requires repeated posterior sampling from the power posteriors, the new method ...


Panel Threshold Regressions With Latent Group Structures, Ke Miao, Liangjun Su, Wendun Wang Jul 2019

Panel Threshold Regressions With Latent Group Structures, Ke Miao, Liangjun Su, Wendun Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we consider the least squares estimation of a panel structure threshold re-gression (PSTR) model where both the slope coefficients and threshold parameters may exhibit latent group structures. We study the asymptotic properties of the estimators of the latent group structure and the slope and threshold coefficients. We show that we can estimate the latent group structure correctly with probability approaching 1 and the estimators of the slope and threshold coefficients are asymptotically equivalent to the infeasible estimators that are obtained as if the true group structures were known. We study likelihood-ratio-based inferences on the group-specific threshold parameters ...


A Quantile-Based Asset Pricing Model, Tomohiro Ando, Jushan Bai, Mitohide Nishimura, Jun Yu Jul 2019

A Quantile-Based Asset Pricing Model, Tomohiro Ando, Jushan Bai, Mitohide Nishimura, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is well-known that the standard estimators of the risk premium in asset pricing models are biased when some price factors are omitted. To address this problem, we propose a novel quantile-based asset pricing model and a new estimation method. Our new asset pricing model allows for the risk premium to be quantile-dependent and our estimation method is applicable to models with unobserved factors. It avoids biased estimation results and always ensures a positive risk premium. The method is applied to the U.S., Japan, and U.K. stock markets. The empirical analysis demonstrates the clear benefits of our approach.


A Transactive Energy Approach To Distribution System Design: Household Formulation, Swathi Battula, Leigh Tesfatsion, Zhaoyu Wang Jun 2019

A Transactive Energy Approach To Distribution System Design: Household Formulation, Swathi Battula, Leigh Tesfatsion, Zhaoyu Wang

Economics Working Papers

A household model is formulated to facilitate careful performance testing of bid-based transactive energy system (TES) designs in advance of deployment. Household welfare is expressed by comfort minus cost. Household thermal dynamics are represented by an Equivalent Thermal Parameter (ETP) model based on appliance and house attributes. An optimal bid function is characterized for the household, conditional on its operating state. A method is developed for explicit derivation of this optimal bid function, given discretized forms for the household’s welfare and thermal dynamic functions. A method is also developed for constructing representative household types as correlated collections of welfare ...


Identification Of Treatment Effects With Mismeasured Imperfect Instruments, Desire Kedagni Jun 2019

Identification Of Treatment Effects With Mismeasured Imperfect Instruments, Desire Kedagni

Economics Working Papers

In this article, I develop a novel identification result for estimating the effect of an endogenous treatment using a proxy of an unobserved imperfect instrument. I show that the potential outcomes distributions are partially identified for the compliers. Therefore, I derive sharp bounds on the local average treatment effect. I write the identified set in the form of conditional moments inequalities, which can be implemented using existing inferential methods. I illustrate my methodology on the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 to evaluate the returns to college attendance using tuition as a proxy of the true cost of going to ...


Spending Where It Matters: Exploring The Relationship Between Institutional Expenditures And Student Retention Rates At The California State University, Matias Farre Jun 2019

Spending Where It Matters: Exploring The Relationship Between Institutional Expenditures And Student Retention Rates At The California State University, Matias Farre

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

It is anticipated that there will be a shortage of 1.1 million college-educated workers in California by 2030 (Johnson, Bohn, & Cuellar Mejia, 2016). Within this context, the California State University (CSU) is the principal source of skilled workers in the state, producing more career-ready candidates than any other single institution (“California State University 2018 Fact Book“, n.d.).

This study examined the relationship between student retention rates and institutional expenditures across the different functional categories of instruction, student services, academic support, and instructional support at the CSU. With the exception of student grants and scholarships, these selected expenditures represent the system’s four largest individual expense categories. This study also sought to reveal the existence of similarities between institutions across the CSU based on institutional characteristics that emerged from the literature as predictors of student success including faculty composition, socioeconomic status of student population, and institutional selectivity (Bailey, Calcagno, Jenkins, Kienzl, & Leinbach, 2005; Ehrenberg & Zhang, 2005a, 2005b; Gansemer-Topf & Schuh (2006); Terenzini, Cabrera, & Bernal, 2001; Titus, 2006b). The sample utilized in this study is the entire population of the CSU, which is comprised of 23 campuses. Data for this study were drawn from the IPEDS database, managed by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES).

This quantitative, non-experimental, correlational study used panel data analysis to determine if the selected institutional expenditures influence retention rates and also to examine the extent to which institutional expenditures contribute to the prediction of retention ...


Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2019, Leonard Lardaro Jun 2019

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.


A Cross County Examination Of Fiscal Federalism In The 2016 Election, Sarah Kaplan Jun 2019

A Cross County Examination Of Fiscal Federalism In The 2016 Election, Sarah Kaplan

Honors Theses

The 2016 election has often been referred to as one of the most unorthodox elections in United States history. Both major candidates had their own unusual qualities about them. Hillary Clinton was the first woman to receive a major party’s nomination. Donald Trump ran with no political experience, using a rhetoric that was foreign to the established political world. And yet, Donald Trump did the unthinkable and was elected to the highest office in the nation. He triggered a voice that many felt was silenced in recent years. By laughing in the face of political correctness, and speaking about ...


A Smoothed Q-Learning Algorithm For Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regime, Yanqin Fan, Ming He, Liangjun Su, Xiao-Hua Zhou Jun 2019

A Smoothed Q-Learning Algorithm For Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regime, Yanqin Fan, Ming He, Liangjun Su, Xiao-Hua Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a smoothed Q-learning algorithm for estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes. In contrast to the Q-learning algorithm in which non-regular inference is involved, we show that under assumptions adopted in this paper, the proposed smoothed Q-learning estimator is asymptotically normally distributed even when the Q-learning estimator is not and its asymptotic variance can be consistently estimated. As a result, inference based on the smoothed Q-learning estimator is standard. We derive the optimal smoothing parameter and propose a data-driven method for estimating it. The finite sample properties of the smoothed Q-learning estimator are studied and compared with ...


Reinventing The Wheel: Comparing Family Friendly Vegas And Adult Friendly Vegas Revenue Growth, James Vaughn May 2019

Reinventing The Wheel: Comparing Family Friendly Vegas And Adult Friendly Vegas Revenue Growth, James Vaughn

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The one constant for Las Vegas is change, always looking for the Next Big Thing™. In the 1990s, Las Vegas engaged in a grand experiment: roller coasters, amusement parks, family pools and shows. In the 2000s, Las Vegas reinvented itself back to its roots: condo not amusement parks, sensual not swashbuckling shows, topless European ultra-pools not kiddie pools. While the house always wins, did the casinos of the 1990s or 2000s beat the ultimate house, going beyond nominal revenue growth into the jackpot of real revenue growth?


Apple V. Pepper: Rationalizing Antitrust’S Indirect Purchaser Rule, Herbert J. Hovenkamp May 2019

Apple V. Pepper: Rationalizing Antitrust’S Indirect Purchaser Rule, Herbert J. Hovenkamp

Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law

In Apple v. Pepper the Supreme Court held that consumers who allegedly paid too much for apps sold on Apple’s iStore could sue Apple for antitrust damages because they were “direct purchasers.” The decision reflects some bizarre complexities that have resulted from the Supreme Court’s 1977 decision in Illinois Brick, which held that only direct purchasers could sue for overcharge injuries under the federal antitrust laws. The indirect purchaser rule was problematic from the beginning. First, it was plainly inconsistent with the antitrust damages statute, which gives an action to “any person who shall be injured in his ...


Productivity In Baseball: How Babe Ruth Beats The Benchmark, Peter A. Groothuis, Kurt W. Rotthoff, Mark C. Strazicich May 2019

Productivity In Baseball: How Babe Ruth Beats The Benchmark, Peter A. Groothuis, Kurt W. Rotthoff, Mark C. Strazicich

The Journal of SPORT

Many statistics are used to measure the productivity of hitters in Major League Baseball, such as the number of home runs and the number of runs batted in a season. However, comparing the talent of individual players across time is difficult as rules and technologies change. In this paper, we propose applying a practice commonly utilized in the finance literature to compare the performance of individual stocks and other assets, namely, we “benchmark” the productivity of each player’s performance to players in the same time period. Applying our benchmarking strategy to annual Major League Baseball data from 1871-2010, we ...


Empowering Female Entrepreneurs Through Mentorship In Medellin, Colombia: Results From The Field, Theresa Solenski May 2019

Empowering Female Entrepreneurs Through Mentorship In Medellin, Colombia: Results From The Field, Theresa Solenski

Master's Theses

Utilizing the power of local knowledge and peer networking, this study attempts to quantify the impacts of mentorship among female micro-entrepreneurs in Medellin, Colombia on empowerment. Developing countries such as Colombia have disproportionately high rates of unprofitable micro-businesses, many of which are managed by women. Internal constraints, such as disempowerment, play a central role in perpetuating poverty. We implement a 6-month mentoring intervention by pairing 18 successful entrepreneurs with 52 disadvantaged female, micro-entrepreneurs in Medellin, Colombia to measure the additional benefit of localized knowledge to micro-borrowers. Using a process of random assignment, I measure the change in female empowerment, measured ...


The Impact Of Cleft Lip/Palate And Clp Surgical Intervention On The Social Integration Of Adolescents In India, Mustafa Zahid May 2019

The Impact Of Cleft Lip/Palate And Clp Surgical Intervention On The Social Integration Of Adolescents In India, Mustafa Zahid

Master's Theses

Cleft Lip/Palate, a congenital orofacial anomaly, carries an incidence rate of approximately 1 in every 1000 births. In addition to the stigma associated with the condition, the varying levels of cleft severity might result in lower life outcomes which could include lower cognitive ability, physical and psychological well-being, social and behavioral outcomes of adolescents. This paper focuses on the social integration element of life outcomes, which is composed of the social inclusion and prosocial behavior of the adolescent. Despite the affordability of restorative surgeries, patients in rural areas of Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) such as India face accessibility ...


The Long-Run Effects Of Tropical Cyclones On Infant Mortality, Isabel Miranda May 2019

The Long-Run Effects Of Tropical Cyclones On Infant Mortality, Isabel Miranda

Master's Theses

In the United States alone, each tropical cyclone causes an average of $14.6 billion worth of damages. In addition to the destruction of physical infrastructure, natural disasters also negatively impact human capital formation. These losses are often more difficult to observe, and therefore, are over looked when quantifying the true costs of natural disasters. One particular effect is an increase in infant mortality rates, an important indicator of a country’s general socioeconomic level. This paper utilizes a model created by Anttila-Hughes and Hsiang, that takes advantage of annual variation in tropical cyclones using annual spatial average maximum wind ...


Captive Nations: Measuring Economic Growth On Native American Reservations In California, Mahsa Ashabi May 2019

Captive Nations: Measuring Economic Growth On Native American Reservations In California, Mahsa Ashabi

Master's Theses

A history of institutional oppression and genocide has shaped Native American communities across the United States today, reflected in large disparities of socioeconomic outcomes and infrastructure. Due to a lack of comprehensive data and macroeconomic research, alternative forms of spatial data and theories regarding human settlement are needed to develop an understanding ofthis stagnation. In our efforts to better understand growth on Native American reservations, we utilize nighttime lights data to proxy for economic output in these geographic areas, measuring the settlement characteristics ofreservations themselves and against surrounding U.S. regions. Through a series of log-log regressions that focus on ...


Are Menstrual Cycles A Biological Determinant Of Well-Being Amongst Sierra Leonean Schoolchildren?, Ashwini Shridhar May 2019

Are Menstrual Cycles A Biological Determinant Of Well-Being Amongst Sierra Leonean Schoolchildren?, Ashwini Shridhar

Master's Theses

The influence of hormones and biology on behavior is a topic that is rife with controversy, especially when it comes to sexual hormones. There is even more murkiness when it comes to the topic of menstruation and knowledge about women’s menstrual cycles. Recent research on this topic have seen a link between the hormonal fluctuations during menstrual cycles and various behavioral implications on competition, cooperation, and risk behavior. This study tries to expand existing knowledge by examining whether there is a link between hormonal fluctuations during menstrual cycles and risk preferential behavior using economic experiments in the largely understudied ...