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Articles 1 - 13 of 13

Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

The Impact Of Biofuels Policy On Agribusiness Stock Prices, Fatma Sine Tepe, Xiaodong Du, David A. Hennessy Sep 2009

The Impact Of Biofuels Policy On Agribusiness Stock Prices, Fatma Sine Tepe, Xiaodong Du, David A. Hennessy

CARD Working Papers

Corn markets are important for many industries, including the seed, fertilizer, meat production/processing and agricultural machinery sectors, all of which are highly concentrated. Oligopoly theory suggests that corn input and field equipment suppliers likely benefit from policies that support corn markets, such as U.S. biofuels policy, while meat companies are likely adversely affected. Employing a linear two-factor (S&P 500 and corn prices) equilibrium asset pricing model, this study investigates the impact of biofuels policy on U.S. agribusiness and food processing firm stock prices. Conditional heteroskedasticity in stock returns is accounted for using a GARCH(1,1 ...


Crop Residues: The Rest Of The Story, Douglas L. Karlen, Rattan Lal, Ronald F. Follett, John M. Kimble, Jerry L. Hatfield, John A. Miranowski, Cynthia A. Cambardella, Andrew Manale, Robert P. Anex, Charles W. Rice Sep 2009

Crop Residues: The Rest Of The Story, Douglas L. Karlen, Rattan Lal, Ronald F. Follett, John M. Kimble, Jerry L. Hatfield, John A. Miranowski, Cynthia A. Cambardella, Andrew Manale, Robert P. Anex, Charles W. Rice

Economics Publications

Synopsis In the February 15, 2009 issue of ES&T Strand and Benford argued that oceanic deposition of agricultural crop residues was a viable option for net carbon sequestration (43 [4], 1000−1007). In reviewing the calculations and bringing their experience to bear, Karlen et al. argue in this Viewpoint that crop residue oceanic permanent sequestration (CROPS) as envisioned by Strand and Benford will not work. They further propose alternative possibilities in agricultural methods to achieve a net decrease of CO2 emissions.


The 2007/08 Iowa Grain And Biofuel Flow Study: A Survey Report, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu, Chad E. Hart Aug 2009

The 2007/08 Iowa Grain And Biofuel Flow Study: A Survey Report, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu, Chad E. Hart

CARD Staff Reports

Driven by the expanding production of biofuels, the linkage between the agricultural and energy markets is evolving, and that has changed the market for agricultural commodities dramatically. These developments in agricultural markets consequently shifted the distribution of domestic grains and feeds and the utilization of shipping modes for these agricultural products. As the leading producer of corn, soybeans, and biofuels, Iowa is at the forefront of this shift. Because of the importance of maintaining an adequate state transportation system to accommodate the evolving patterns of grain and biofuel flows, it is important to have current information about grain flows from ...


Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects On Grain And Livestock Sectors, And Implications For Food Prices And Consumers, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang E. Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry, Jerome R. Florian-Dumortier Aug 2009

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects On Grain And Livestock Sectors, And Implications For Food Prices And Consumers, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang E. Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry, Jerome R. Florian-Dumortier

Economics Publications

We examine four scenarios for the evolution of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. The model includes the new Renewable Fuels Standard in the 2007 energy act, the two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. Of the remaining two scenarios, one considers a pure market ...


Pass-Through In United States Beef Cattle Prices, Huan Zhao, Xiaodong Du, David A. Hennessy Jul 2009

Pass-Through In United States Beef Cattle Prices, Huan Zhao, Xiaodong Du, David A. Hennessy

CARD Working Papers

Feeder cattle are fattened to become fed live cattle six months later. The U.S. feeder cattle industry is intensively competitive, so that market efficiency suggests feeder cattle prices should fully reflect feed prices and information on future fed cattle prices. Employing a long time series (1979-2004) of feeder cattle futures, live cattle futures, and local corn prices, we test whether complete pass-through occurs. The results indicate that an increase of a dollar per hundred pounds in the live cattle price leads to an increase of approximately $1.48 per hundred pounds in the feeder cattle price in one month ...


Speculation And Volatility Spillover In The Crude Oil And Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis, Xiaodong Du, Cindy L. Yu, Dermot J. Hayes May 2009

Speculation And Volatility Spillover In The Crude Oil And Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis, Xiaodong Du, Cindy L. Yu, Dermot J. Hayes

CARD Working Papers

This paper assesses the roles of various factors influencing the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The main results are as follows. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining oil price variation. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, a negative correlation between price and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent ...


Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects On Grain And Livestock Sectors, And Implications For Food Prices And Consumers, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce A. Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani E. Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad E. Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry, Jerome R. F. Dumortier Mar 2009

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects On Grain And Livestock Sectors, And Implications For Food Prices And Consumers, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce A. Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani E. Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad E. Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry, Jerome R. F. Dumortier

CARD Working Papers

We examine four scenarios for the evolution of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. The model includes the new Renewable Fuels Standard in the 2007 energy act, the two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. Of the remaining two scenarios, one considers a pure market ...


Capacity Withholding In Restructured Wholesale Power Markets: An Agent-Based Test Bed Study, Hongyan Li, Leigh Tesfatsion Jan 2009

Capacity Withholding In Restructured Wholesale Power Markets: An Agent-Based Test Bed Study, Hongyan Li, Leigh Tesfatsion

Economics Presentations, Posters and Proceedings

This study uses a dynamic 5-bus test case implemented via the AMES Wholesale Power Market Test Bed to investigate strategic capacity withholding by generation companies (GenCos) in restructured wholesale power markets under systematically varied demand conditions. The strategic behaviors of the GenCos are simulated by means of a stochastic reinforcement learning algorithm motivated by human-subject laboratory experiments. The learning GenCos attempt to improve their earnings over time by strategic selection of their reported supply offers. This strategic selection can involve both physical capacity withholding (reporting of lower-than-true maximum operating capacity) and economic capacity withholding (reporting of higher-than-true marginal costs). We ...


Scenario Generation For Price Forecasting In Restructured Wholesale Power Markets, Qun Zhou, Leigh Tesfatsion, Chen-Ching Liu Jan 2009

Scenario Generation For Price Forecasting In Restructured Wholesale Power Markets, Qun Zhou, Leigh Tesfatsion, Chen-Ching Liu

Economics Presentations, Posters and Proceedings

Abstract: In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes it difficult to use empirical price data to test existing price forecasting tools and to develop new price forecasting tools. This study therefore proposes a two-stage approach for generating simulated price scenarios based on the available price data. The first stage consists of an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model for determining scenarios of cleared demands and scheduled generator outages (D&O), and a moment-matching method for reducing the number of D&O scenarios to a practical scale. In the second stage, polynomials are fitted ...


Locational Marginal Pricing Basics For Restructured Wholesale Power Markets, Haifeng Liu, Leigh Tesfatsion, A.A. Chowdhury Jan 2009

Locational Marginal Pricing Basics For Restructured Wholesale Power Markets, Haifeng Liu, Leigh Tesfatsion, A.A. Chowdhury

Economics Presentations, Posters and Proceedings

Abstract: Although Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) plays an important role in many restructured wholesale power markets, the detailed derivation of LMPs as actually used in industry practice is not readily available. This lack of transparency greatly hinders the efforts of researchers to evaluate the performance of these markets. In this paper, different AC and DC optimal power flow (OPF) models are presented to help understand the derivation of LMPs. As a byproduct of this analysis, the paper provides a rigorous explanation of the basic LMP and LMP-decomposition formulas (neglecting real power losses) presented without derivation in the business practice manuals ...


The Impact Of Energy Markets On The Eu Agricultural Sector, Simla Tokgoz Jan 2009

The Impact Of Energy Markets On The Eu Agricultural Sector, Simla Tokgoz

CARD Working Papers

The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of crude oil prices on the EU agricultural sector in an era when the biofuels sector is expanding because of policy initiatives and the desire to find alternative fuel sources. To this end, first a baseline is set up for the EU ethanol, grain, and dried distillers grains markets. In the next step, two different scenarios are run. The first scenario incorporates a 10-Euros-per-barrel increase in the EU crude oil price with the ethanol import tariffs in place. The second scenario incorporates the same shock with the ethanol import tariffs ...


Development Of Open Source Software For Power Market Research: The Ames Test Bed, Hongyan Li, Leigh Tesfatsion Jan 2009

Development Of Open Source Software For Power Market Research: The Ames Test Bed, Hongyan Li, Leigh Tesfatsion

Economics Publications

Open source software (OSS) expresses the idea that developers should be able to license the publication of their software in a manner permitting anyone to freely use, modify and distribute the software. Today OSS is widely used in the software industry: for example, for language development tools (eg, NetBeans for Java), office document processors (eg, OpenOffice) and operating systems (eg, Linux, OpenSolaris).Yet OSS has been slow to penetrate the power industry; heavy reliance is still placed on closed-source commercial software packages. Open source software tends to be used for specialized purposes (eg, circuit design) rather than for the general-purpose ...


Derivation Of Locational Marginal Prices For Restructured Wholesale Power Markets, Haifeng Liu, Leigh Tesfatsion, Ali A. Chowdhury Jan 2009

Derivation Of Locational Marginal Prices For Restructured Wholesale Power Markets, Haifeng Liu, Leigh Tesfatsion, Ali A. Chowdhury

Economics Publications

Although locational marginal pricing (LMP) plays an important role in many restructured wholesale power markets, the detailed derivation of LMP as it is actually used in industrial practice is not readily available. This lack of transparency greatly hinders the efforts of researchers to evaluate the performance of these markets. In this paper, different alternating current and direct current optimal power flow models are presented to help us understand the derivation of LMP. As a byproduct of this analysis, we are able to provide a rigorous explanation of the basic LMP and LMP-decomposition formulas (neglecting real power losses) that are presented ...